Hanging on a pipe dream: Is another NHL team coming to Toronto?

Discussion in 'Fugu's Business of Hockey Forum' started by sawchuk1971, Nov 2, 2019.

  1. Stephen

    Stephen Moderator

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    Well, they own the territorial rights in Toronto.

    If I’m a business owner I’m not forking over $1.5 billion in new arena, expansion and territorial fees just to be the LA Clippers or New York Islanders/New Jersey Devils.
     
  2. GuelphStormer

    GuelphStormer Registered User

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    yeah, what kind of insane person would invest even a penny to make the playoffs 10 of their first 12 seasons and win the stanley cup four times? i mean, that's just crazy right?
     
  3. Stephen

    Stephen Moderator

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    I’d say the last 36 years of Islanders hockey is more indicative of what you’d be expecting.
     
  4. GuelphStormer

    GuelphStormer Registered User

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    my point is that any new team is not statistically favoured to do well on the ice, but some do, like vegas and the islanders. establishing a second team in an area already having an existing team is not an automatic death knell.

    GTA2 will do just fine.
     
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  5. TheLegend

    TheLegend Megathread Gadfly

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    I think Quebec City would be fine.... but they're in a situation a lot like Winnipeg is and would need an ownership group hefty enough to withstand the initial startup costs and maintenance through the first decade.

    EDIT: By "situation" I mean they're technically a smaller market and would need to average 95%+ of the arena's capacity annually.
     
  6. Cacciaguida

    Cacciaguida Registered User

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    exactly, you'll be fighting an uphill battle from the getgo. might as well plop the team in Hamilton and have your own personal enclave while drawing disgruntled GTA hockey fans over.
     
  7. mouser

    mouser Business of Hockey

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    That’s only if you count the core city boundaries, the metro populations are much bigger for the other cities.

    Quick metro population search:

    Minneapolis-St Paul: 3.3 million
    Pittsburgh: 2.4 million
    Las Vegas: 2.2 million
    Raleigh: 1.2 to 2.0 million depending on how big you think the area is.
    Quebec City: 0.8 million
     
  8. Pyrophorus

    Pyrophorus Registered User

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    You mean non-fans. Fans may have a love/hate relationship with the Leafs, but they are fans, and won't switch.
    Even in this current dearth.
     
  9. Pyrophorus

    Pyrophorus Registered User

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    Yeah, like that will happen again, like a blueprint....
     
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  10. Voight

    Voight #winning

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    There are plenty of potential owners/partners that would be hefty enough.

    You have PKP/Quebecor as the big one, then I am sure there would be interest from the likes of Jean Coutu, Guy Labierte.

    Thats just French-Canadian's, they could always attract investors from across the country. Specifically guys that may have wanted to buy a team but never had the chance.
     
  11. TheLegend

    TheLegend Megathread Gadfly

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    I wouldn’t be so sure.

    I recall it was reported during the time QC had applied along with Vegas that Quebecor was looking for a minor investor. That’s a sign they weren’t willing to take the full load on their own and nobody stepped up to fill that role.

    While you might have people with the resources. They also have to be willing to use them.
     
  12. Voight

    Voight #winning

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    The problem was most people knew the NHL wasn't going to give QC a team. They were more interested in LV + Seattle and wanted to use QC as an negotiating tool when other cities/governments didn't want to work with them. It did not matter if Quebecor gave the NHL $500,000,000 in cash up front - it was clear they were ignoring them for the most part.

    Should the NHL say "hey, were willing to give you a team or move one there" I doubt they couldn't find investors. A team would do great there, WPG being a good example of how well a team has done once it returned. If there was a guarantee of a team, they would find partners very easily.
     
  13. TheLegend

    TheLegend Megathread Gadfly

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    You really mean most presumed QC wouldn’t get one.

    The $CAD was pretty weak back then against the $USD and still is in a relative sense.

    Couple that with QC being looked at as a market size similar to Winnipeg it makes it even more financially scary.

    Seattle was a no show back then. And OVG wasn’t even part of the equation. So the theory they were leveraging Seattle doesn’t work.
     
  14. HugoSimon

    HugoSimon Registered User

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    LA has 8 professional sports teams.

    Toronto has 3.

    Canada is a hockey dominate market. You have 10 million people surrounding the leafs. Toronto is the central hub of Canada.

    If we ever get a fourth team it's gonna be a billion dollar price tag regardless. If we were an American city we'd have an NFL team. The question becomes do you honestly think the NFL would outdraw GTA2?


    With a $650 million expansion fee the entire math of the game has changed. What was an extreme amount of money is totally within the realm of possibility. It is all dependent on an arena but otherwise the economics are sound.
     
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  15. HugoSimon

    HugoSimon Registered User

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    The islanders are the wait for it . . . the ninth franchise in New York, the ninth, not second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, or eight the bloody ninth.

    If we're suppose to believe that little vegas is gonna support a northern sport it isn't unreasonable to think that an area with literally 10 times the population of Winnipeg can support a second team.
     
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  16. HugoSimon

    HugoSimon Registered User

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    Spoken like a person who lives in southern Ontario.

    I feel bad for Leafs fans because they seem to be oblivious that a whole lot of people around them cannot stand their bizarre attachment to the team.

    What makes it even weirder, Leafs fans are clearly the most aware of the goings on within the league and generally they follow most of the key players etc.

    Its not like when the leafs plop the bed that the entire province gives up on Hockey. I always have found that most Leafs fan almost always follow a second team whether its Chicago, Detroit, Tampa, Pittsburg, etc.

    I actually think the Leafs should be far more worried about a backlash against the team than the success of a GTA2.

    I honestly think a second team would sell out even if they were playing like Detroit. They'd at the very least get the underdog support(something the leafs are not).

    Forget all those times when GTA2 is out performing the Leafs.
     
  17. GuelphStormer

    GuelphStormer Registered User

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    what on earth are you going on about?
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2019
  18. Stephen

    Stephen Moderator

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    Not much of what you said makes that much sense. A $650 million expansion fee is within the realm of possibility provided we ignore the arena cost which may double the start up budget?

    The NFL is in another stratosphere when it comes to finances.

    In terms of franchise counts, there are quite a few LA teams which are after thoughts on that market. Is an ownership group going to spend over a billion to be the Ducks, Angels or Clippers in Toronto? Also, LA’s NFL teams are always coming and going from that market. So it’s hardly useful to start measuring with franchise counts.
     
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  19. HugoSimon

    HugoSimon Registered User

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    As I said this has to happen independently of the bid. This is a problem for the crazy real estate developers in the great property bubble that is Canada.

    Not in Canada.

    This is where numbers count. Southern Ontario is looking for its 4th franchise not 8th in a sport that is deeply entrenched in the culture.
     
  20. Bucky_Hoyt

    Bucky_Hoyt Registered User

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    Probably worth counting MLS franchises as their expansion fees are in the hundreds of millions, now. May also need to consider major collegiate teams too as they do take a fair chunk of the sports consumer's spending and time, too.

    With those teams thrown into the mix, I wonder where all of the NHL teams rank in their respective markets?

    I wouldn't be so certain that a second NHL team in the Golden Horseshoe is automatically jumping to no. 2 after the Leafs.

    Raptors just won a title, Toronto FC just went to the MLS Cup and the Jays have over 40 years of history. Heck, even the Argos and Ti-cats are in the century mark.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2019
  21. The Big D

    The Big D Registered User

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    The only way TO2 happens is when the unholy alliance of Bell & Rogers cannot co-exist any longer. One will “sell” the other their shares in mlse in exchange for splitting the market. Only way it will work
     
  22. canuckfan75

    canuckfan75 Registered User

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    This is correct. the only way it happens in my opnion as well. seems they are getting along now
     
  23. HugoSimon

    HugoSimon Registered User

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    I think most people could concede that a messy divorce and a empty arena are the two big deal breaker/makers,.

    Otherwise I think the market itself is sound. And by sound I look at the 10 million people in the Area and guess that few of them actually end up at scoitabank arena.
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2019
  24. HugoSimon

    HugoSimon Registered User

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    The success of TFC is the best indicator that the market is much stronger than most people anticipate. TFC is one of the strongest teams in the league directly because of its location.

    I'd argue the Raptors might edge out the Leafs, which is exactly why the NHL should think twice of starving out the market.
     
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  25. HugoSimon

    HugoSimon Registered User

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    Just creatively coming up with branding ideas.


    Ontario Pond Hoppers

    Mascot: a baby on skates.

    Play up the historical connection the province has with pond hockey.

    Play up the geographic connection with Lakes and Ponds.

    Play up the Hopper motif of being a young upstart full of energy and youth. A contrast to the Leafs which are the epitome of old guard Toronto.

    Play up the idea that Ontarians are an international breed. Both in the sense of big scale immigration, and the idea that Ontario supplies the world with a lot of its hockey talent.

    Brand the league as if its a natural extension of the OHL.

    Logo: Ontario with a series of flight lines(representing the travel of its players).
     

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