Value of: Gudas/Simmonds package deal to Toronto

[Revelation]

dubas ain't trading for these types. sawry.

Good news for the rest of the East

 

[zeke]

Take out kap or the first then it might work

take out kap AND the first, you mean.

 

[Tavares to Marner]

Simmonds & Gudas would be pretty expensive package to get both.

So teams should expect to break the bank for Simmons and gudas?

 

[RANKKA]

to get rid off wayne and get Kapanen at the same time, WOULD DO IN A HEART BEAT

 

[DearDiary]

Ah yes! Thank you. Sorry. The trade was contingent upon a signing. If Brassard wasn’t singing a bridge-like deal, the trade wouldn’t have happened per Rutherford.

He was their solution to the 3C problem for time due to lack of prospects and a potential cap crunch for FA salaries.

The context is very similar in regards to what teams want from rentals. Did that happen... idk? Idk if he signed another deal. I was reading a post-gazette article from Brandon Somerman where he stated that.

Brassard had 2 years left on his 5 year deal, there was ZERO talk of an extension. Golden Knights retained 2 million of the contract in the deal. The only actual discussions were that Sheanan would be the long term 3C until Blueger was ready.

The context is nothing like a rental and in no way relates in value to a trade involving a rental. I don't know why you bring up signing talk, when the last time Brassard signed a contract was in 2014

 

[Hunter368]

So teams should expect to break the bank for Simmons and gudas?

Hyperbole - Break the bank.

OP of Brown who is at 3rd liner, very late 1st and another prospect (very vague) is a low offer for a top 6 power forward UFA who just scores goals, phyiscal, fights AND a decent top 4 D who is physical with 1.5 years term AND both players on sweet contracts with low cap hits. Those two players would return more then the OP offered easily. Gudas is very underrated top 4 D and Simmonds good top 6 power forward.

 

[Broad Street Buddies]

We ask Boston and they said that they really don’t mind if Toronto isn’t interested in grittiness.

 

[CapnZin]

Thank you for teaching me so much. I do appreciate that you're bringing in Micah's visualizations, but it's interesting that you selectively skipped over the most important ones.

You might have noticed that almost every asset you brought up is his career performance. You won't catch me saying Simmonds hasn't had a good career. As recently as 3 seasons ago he was a bonafide top line power forward. So was Lucic. Simmonds has absolutely fallen off a cliff at 5v5 production- AND possession-wise. When you're acquiring a rental, what they did 5 years ago doesn't really matter. It's the player you're getting for the rest of the season. And what you're getting is a guy who damages his team's offence at even strength. You're right, context does matter. The problem is your "context" is career turnover stats and not the player he's been the past two seasons.

I truly don't care that over the course of his 10 season career he's been a good net front guy and scorer. This isn't a conversation about 24 year old Simmonds, it's a conversation about 30 year old Simmonds.

Also sure, he has 8 goals at even strength this year. He also has 3 in his last 15. He got a pile in the first few games of the season, that's great. But let's not pretend he's having this superb season. By the way, this might shock you but I know that he's a netfront guy and not a playmaker - what I'm saying is that his "net front presence" does not actually lead to shots from close proximity anymore.

Basically you delivered the smuggest rebuttal possible while only using career metrics, which is completely laughable. Take your own lesson and learn how to use context bro.

(Also I'm not a Leafs fan, so whoops.)

That’s fine and a fair response. You said he’s a black hole offensively. It’s just wrong though. Also, from age 27-30 has been the best performance of his career. His style does slow down fast.

Last year was an anomaly due to a laundry list of injuries. His torn whatever should’ve kept him out for the season, but still player through broken hand (fight with DeAngelo), something with his arm too, 6 missing teeth (surgery), and something else. More or less an excuse, but still something to consider.

Also, in about 1:30 TOI less than last year, Simmonds (10/28)*82 = ~29 goals. I know that these stats can’t be compared to previous stats since scoring is different now.

Talking about himself tho, he isn’t declining production. Now he has linemates like Weal, Laughton, Lindblom (used for 9min the last couple games), and Raffl.

Your question was “why would a GM want him or any team want him”... not “what will Simmonds provide in the near future”.

It’s easy for the second quote: goals and leadership.

When has a GM been called a moron for acquiring a 25+ goal scorer nearing the end of their prime with all the attributes you want for the playoffs? I can’t thibk of any. Don’t say Rick Nash because he was at retirement.

I just thought your write up was baiting. Your rhetoric was very similar to trolling.

 

[CapnZin]

Brassard had 2 years left on his 5 year deal, there was ZERO talk of an extension. Golden Knights retained 2 million of the contract in the deal. The only actual discussions were that Sheanan would be the long term 3C until Blueger was ready.

The context is nothing like a rental and in no way relates in value to a trade involving a rental. I don't know why you bring up signing talk, when the last time Brassard signed a contract was in 2014

There was a Gazette article that I read which said this. It’s the Pittsburgh newspaper. The rhetoric of talking for an extension is similar as a rental. I guess the Karlsson trade to SJS, besides the situation, is like what I read about.

If that didn’t happen then that example can be disregarded. If so, then it fits.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Then no deal to be made. You dont trade Kapanen who's got 10 goals 11 assists in 30 games. PKs and has elite speed for depth moves. Simmonds wouldn't be resigned so that's an absolute no go for the Leafs.

There definitely is a deal to be made if you think you can make some real noise.

 

[Revelation]

Caps will take them lol. Ovechkin/Oshie/Orlov/Simmonds/Wilson/Orpik/Gudas would be like bringing 7 sledgehammers to a 7 game series. 8 if someone tells DSP Trump is coaching the other team

 

[JackFr]

That’s fine and a fair response. You said he’s a black hole offensively. It’s just wrong though. Also, from age 27-30 has been the best performance of his career. His style does slow down fast.

Last year was an anomaly due to a laundry list of injuries. His torn whatever should’ve kept him out for the season, but still player through broken hand (fight with DeAngelo), something with his arm too, 6 missing teeth (surgery), and something else. More or less an excuse, but still something to consider.

Also, in about 1:30 TOI less than last year, Simmonds (10/28)*82 = ~29 goals. I know that these stats can’t be compared to previous stats since scoring is different now.

Talking about himself tho, he isn’t declining production. Now he has linemates like Weal, Laughton, Lindblom (used for 9min the last couple games), and Raffl.

Your question was “why would a GM want him or any team want him”... not “what will Simmonds provide in the near future”.

It’s easy for the second quote: goals and leadership.

When has a GM been called a moron for acquiring a 25+ goal scorer nearing the end of their prime with all the attributes you want for the playoffs? I can’t thibk of any. Don’t say Rick Nash because he was at retirement.

I just thought your write up was baiting. Your rhetoric was very similar to trolling.

Reasonable, I think you deserve a fair response.

1. I would be more willing to accept last season as an injury writeoff if his 5v5 scoring rates and possession weren't so similar in 2017 and 2018, like to the extent that there really was not an appreciable difference between the two. Additionally, those injuries count when you're talking about a guy who plays that role. Furthermore, his possession metrics have remained quite poor which tells me that it's the new normal.

2. I think more key to that is he had a hot start and has really cooled off in the past 15 games (more than half his GP). I'm not ready to extrapolate his 10/28 to a full season given that.

3. A team is gonna trade a lot for Simmonds, and a team is gonna sign Simmonds to a huge longterm deal. That's certain. I'm just saying that shouldn't unless they really really need a netfront powerplay guy, because based on the stats I really think he hurts his team at 5v5. The Leafs don't need that, so I don't think they should trade for him.

 

[Fogelhund]

There are multiple challenges in a deal where the Leafs acquire both Simmonds and Gudas, whom I think would make great additions to the Leafs roster long-term.

First, is that Simmonds is a UFA. I have no idea what his ask is going to be, but I doubt it's going to be any less than he's making now, which isn't necessarily a great Cap hit, when the league is getting younger, faster, and heavier game players typically don't age well. I'd want to know what it's going to take to extend him, and the type of term that is being asked first. If it's a pure rental, I'd pass. The Leafs could afford him near his current Cap hit, but not really beyond.

Second... if we had Simmonds AND Gudas on the roster long-term, it likely means Nylander is gone from the squad. If Nylander is gone in a separate deal... Kapanen must be kept, so he's off the table.

In addition, Gardiner, Zaitsev and Brown would all be gone as well..

Not a counter proposal here, but just some rationalization as to why Kapanen couldn't be included in such a deal.

 

[IvanProvorov]

I like Kapanen but you guys are really overrating him here. He wouldnt put up numbers close to those on any other team.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Simmonds, Gudas & Gritty
For
Brown, Holl, Carlton & 1st​

 

[Fogelhund]

I like Kapanen but you guys are really overrating him here. He wouldnt put up numbers close to those on any other team.

Whether he would, or wouldn't isn't as relevant, as if we made the trade, and had Simmonds and Gudas on the roster long-term, it means Nylander has to move, to make the Cap work... We'd need Kap still, if Nylander was gone.

 

[Starat327]

Simmonds, Gudas & Gritty
For
Brown, Holl, Carlton & 1st​

If we're sending Gritty, start with Matthews and add from there.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

If we're sending Gritty, start with Matthews and add from there.

That’s a steeep ask... how about Willy and a 1st?

 

[Voodoo Child]

Wow Take our garbage for your player... and than get a maybe.
Typical Leaf proposal.

Yeah man. The Leafs should totally have to give up Kapanen, who kills penalties, has 21 points in 30 games and is 22 years old, some picks which include a first and Brown, for a 30 year old upcoming UFA, who played through some bad injuries last year, has 14 points in 28 games (trending for three years in a row of declining totals) and has never once been known for his two way game but he has 'grit'.

Never minding the fact that with Matthews, Kapanen, Marner and Johnsson to pay and Simmonds requiring at least 6 per, it's impossible.

Go get your shine box.

 

[CapnZin]

Reasonable, I think you deserve a fair response.

1. I would be more willing to accept last season as an injury writeoff if his 5v5 scoring rates and possession weren't so similar in 2017 and 2018, like to the extent that there really was not an appreciable difference between the two. Additionally, those injuries count when you're talking about a guy who plays that role. Furthermore, his possession metrics have remained quite poor which tells me that it's the new normal.

2. I think more key to that is he had a hot start and has really cooled off in the past 15 games (more than half his GP). I'm not ready to extrapolate his 10/28 to a full season given that.

3. A team is gonna trade a lot for Simmonds, and a team is gonna sign Simmonds to a huge longterm deal. That's certain. I'm just saying that shouldn't unless they really really need a netfront powerplay guy, because based on the stats I really think he hurts his team at 5v5. The Leafs don't need that, so I don't think they should trade for him.

I can agree with some of this.

Projections are just that; projections. The 29 goal pace has a +/- differential to it, but it’s not far off. If he stays healthy and actually plays a top 6 role, I think he can pot ~32 given how scoring is going up. If he’s unhealthy and injured we can look around ~26 given TOI/60, P/60, G/60, and Hakstol is starting to use him more. Like all who are pure goal scorers, he is streaky. The declaration of a hot streak to normal play is apples and oranges since they’re are either hot or cold with few meets in the middle. Ask any pure goal scorer that. They typically come in bunches unless you’re one of the greats.

Also, I would like to point out, Simmonds is not a play driver. He’s never been the puck carrier on his line or the set-up man. Never.

His most common linemates this season are JVR and Weal. Weal is their version of a puck carrier (which he tries). JVR, like Simmonds, isn’t a play driver. Although JVR has good play driving metrics, it’s almost attributing a role error to someone who doesn’t partake in the role. You know what I mean? That’s like being a waiter at a restaurant and being yelled at by the boss for not washing dishes.
EDIT: JVR has been out most of the year. Lindblom and Weise have been filling the 3LW role during that time.

Simmonds game is get to the net and pot an ugly goal. He’s not going to carry the puck across the blue line and drive the net.

I said to someone, about Gudas, they’re being overrated for all the WRONG reasons. Your analysis of 1-dimensionality for play is correct, but your attributing play style that almost counteracts what you’re saying, that he’s 1-dimensional.
***Funny enough, I thought you were a leafs fan and my Malkin comment wasn’t in retaliation lol***
That would be very similar to me saying Kris Letang is one of the most overrated Dmen in the league. His role is to play the offensive Dman role, while Dumolin focuses on D. Letang obviously has defensive deficiencies, but again, out of the pair, Dumolin focuses on that and that’s their role so it almost is another one of those role errors I stated. I’m taking something that doesn’t really play to his game (yes Dmen need to play D, but this is the best example I can think of off the top of my head). He’s not exactly overrated either, it’s just attributing a deficiency to his game that isn’t really his game.


Money won’t be a problem for Simmonds and most teams. He will probably cost 6.5mil at 5-6 years. What 28 goal scorer won’t get that? It looks like a Shane Doan contract to me, but I think he’s worth it. If you put Simmer with play-drivers (Voracek, Giroux, Lindblom, Raffl) you’ll see his ES% metrics rise. His role as a 3RW playing with, arguably the worst 3C they’ve had in a bit, and a revolving door of 3LW doesn’t do him good. Most of his goals are assisted by players who drive play anyway.

The last thing: look up UFA deals for Rick Nash, Michael Grabner, Brendan Smith, Patrick Maroon, etc.

A 1st + B+ prospect is most definitely not out of the question based on recent UFA deals.

 

[FerrisRox]

ufa rentals don't get that type of value

Yeah.

Except for every single year when they obviously do.

 

[FerrisRox]

Simmonds is first at the deadline. Given the leafs first will be late, probably a 3rd as well.

I think you are discounting Simmonds.

I think the Flyers could easily get a first and a pretty solid prospect for him.

 

[Liferleafer]

I think you are discounting Simmonds.

I think the Flyers could easily get a first and a pretty solid prospect for him.

Sure, so lets forget about Simmonds and just rarget Gudas.

 

[The Podium]

Wow Take our garbage for your player... and than get a maybe.
Typical Leaf proposal.

Im sorry, our mistake. We will give you the young speedy forward that is outproducing your pending UFA, add another roster player a 1st and another pick. Thats good asset management.

 

[ER89]

Wow Take our garbage for your player... and than get a maybe.
Typical Leaf proposal.

You've been on quite the run with the leafs proposals lately. A first is not garbage einstein and kapanen has more value than simmonds by himself. Give your head a shake if you think simmonds for kappy is something that is reasonable. Although simmonds may still be the better player (debatable but I'll give that to you) kapanen is younger and is under team control. Please don't comment crap on the leafs proposals if you don't know anything about them.