Value of: Gudas/Simmonds package deal to Toronto

[gamer1035]

Nope. Don't want these guys.

 

[I am Canadian]

What about?

Simmonds

For

Kapanen
Brown
1st round in 2019
3rd round pick in 2019

I think thats fair

All that for a UFA.. I wouldn't do Kapanen alone for a rental in Simmonds

 

[Tarmore]

My initial proposal was this:

Simmonds

For

Kapanen
Brown
1st round in 2019
3rd round pick in 2019

Objections?

Many, too many

 

[Dumpster Flyers]

I can understand wanting to keep the younger player, but it's a little odd to say someone is outproducing another player when one plays with Matthews, and the other gets centered by Jordan Weal.

Again, perfectly ok with wanting to keep Kap, but context is key.

Kapanen is also a much better player at this point in their careers. People who think the Leafs would trade Kapanen for Simmonds are insane (I'm a Flyers fan by the way).

 

[Judas Tavares]

Man you need to get a life. For a person who hates the team, you spend way too much time worrying about what the Leafs are doing.

There's many, many posters on these boards guilty of that.

 

[Tripod]

I think most agree that value of each is somewhere around:

1st+3rd for Simmonds
2nd+3rd for Gudas...not a rental so he can always be traded next year to re-coup what you spent on him.

But from the Flyers side....I push for Kapanen for BOTH guys or the deal has to include Liljegren. Because the Flyers have no reason to trade Gudas...their only RHD in the top 6....unless they have a possible replacement in the future.

Leafs win the deal short term, Flyers possibly win it long term. That's what fair deal are.

Then in the future, Philly can run with:

Provy Ghost
Sanheim Myers
Morin Liljegren
Hagg

or

Giroux Couts Konecny
JVR Patrick Voracek
Lindblom Frost Kapanen

 

[Martin Skoula]

I think most agree that value of each is somewhere around:

1st+3rd for Simmonds
2nd+3rd for Gudas...not a rental so he can always be traded next year to re-coup what you spent on him.

But from the Flyers side....I push for Kapanen for BOTH guys or the deal has to include Liljegren. Because the Flyers have no reason to trade Gudas...their only RHD in the top 6....unless they have a possible replacement in the future.

Leafs win the deal short term, Flyers possibly win it long term. That's what fair deal are.

Then in the future, Philly can run with:

Provy Ghost
Sanheim Myers
Morin Liljegren
Hagg

or

Giroux Couts Konecny
JVR Patrick Voracek
Lindblom Frost Kapanen

So based on your breakdown of their value as picks, you think a 2nd + 3rd + 3rd moves you from pick #27 to #17 (Liljegren)? That's ignoring the strides he's made post-draft that have improved his value as well.

And then you want even more on top of that..

 

[Tripod]

So based on your breakdown of their value as picks, you think a 2nd + 3rd + 3rd moves you from pick #27 to #17 (Liljegren)? That's ignoring the strides he's made post-draft that have improved his value as well.

And then you want even more on top of that..

No....I think that the Leafs are not the only team that would offer a 1st. And I think that to acquire a 30 goal scorers who has the intangibles coaches and gm's overvalue AND a top 4 Dman who is physical and is not a rental, is going to cost something that actually hurts.

In this hypothetical deal, it's the Leafs approaching Philly....looking to go for it this year and looking to add the physical element that they lack. Essentially, looking to add pieces that can swing the tide against Boston. Philly would have more than 1 suitor if these 2 were on the block and there would be teams that don't want to give the Leafs what they need.

You can say no and go look elsewhere. No hard feelings at all. But the Flyers are not a team that would be looking for a 1st. They would want a piece that can possibly help them next year, not 3 years from now.

 

[JackFr]

Simmonds won't be on your first powerplay, and he won't play with Matthews or Tavares. He would be less than useless for the Leafs.

...also he's insanely overrated and I would literally take Kapanen over him but that's a whole other issue.

 

[mja]

Simmonds & Gudas will be an expensive ask, just because it can be. What each of them bring is coveted around the league (reasonably or not), so the Flyers should ask high as hell on them, particularly from a EC team like Toronto that may think that's what's going to push them over the top.

The first is a late first, so it doesn't have a ton of value, but it's definitely in the deal. Flyers would also demand Kapanen, I'd imagine. I don't think it stops there either.

 

[JackFr]

Also can I just super quick ask Flyers fans why they sincerely think their rental player who's on pace for 41 points and has gotten 42% of his points on the PP the past three seasons - who's also a horrible drain on possession and ironically doesn't generate chances within 20 feet of the net - is worth a 1st plus a roster player and a prospect? Other than Grit and other teams' GMs being morons?

 

[HOTD]

Wow Take our garbage for your player... and than get a maybe.
Typical Leaf proposal.

Evander Kane traded for a conditional 1st, conditional 4th and Danny O’Regan. Yeah, don’t know him either. It’s not like it used to be pal.

Simmonds is on pace for about 40 pts. Yeah he’s exactly what the Leafs need, but he’s not what he used to be.

 

[PitchNHL]

Simmonds sure, but they could have just kept Polak if they wanted a Gudas.

Gudas is 10x better than polak

 

[PitchNHL]

My initial proposal was this:

Simmonds

For

Kapanen
Brown
1st round in 2019
3rd round pick in 2019

Objections?

Take out kap or the first then it might work

 

[nuclear reactor]

As a Flyers fan I’d take a 1st and 2 2nds. They could be 2020 or 2021 picks too.

 

[mja]

Also can I just super quick ask Flyers fans why they sincerely think their rental player who's on pace for 41 points and has gotten 42% of his points on the PP the past three seasons - who's also a horrible drain on possession and ironically doesn't generate chances within 20 feet of the net - is worth a 1st plus a roster player and a prospect?

You answered your own question:

Other than Grit and other teams' GMs being morons?

We're not saying the Leafs *should* make that trade. If we were on the other end of it, we wouldn't do it. But we *know* that GMs around the league over-value grit, so of course that's going to get figured into the ask.

 

[Tripod]

Also can I just super quick ask Flyers fans why they sincerely think their rental player who's on pace for 41 points and has gotten 42% of his points on the PP the past three seasons - who's also a horrible drain on possession and ironically doesn't generate chances within 20 feet of the net - is worth a 1st plus a roster player and a prospect? Other than Grit and other teams' GMs being morons?

Evander Kane traded for a conditional 1st, conditional 4th and Danny O’Regan. Yeah, don’t know him either. It’s not like it used to be pal.

Simmonds is on pace for about 40 pts. Yeah he’s exactly what the Leafs need, but he’s not what he used to be.

38 point pace Rick Nash also fetched a 1st+

Not to mention, with Simmonds you know it's not about points...it's about goals. And he is still on pace for 29 goals this year.

And yup...grit and intangibles that GM's overvalue and coaches love. Hell, look at the uproar/talk going around Toronto right now how they are not tough enough to match up against Boston. It likely won't be from Philly, but you can bet between now and the deadline, the Leafs will be adding grit/toughness to the lineup.

It's no secret what Simmonds is...a net front guy who will get ugly goals. He will be a sought after asset IF he is put on the block and some team likely overpays for him.

 

[YEM]

Also can I just super quick ask Flyers fans why they sincerely think their rental player who's on pace for 41 points and has gotten 42% of his points on the PP the past three seasons - who's also a horrible drain on possession and ironically doesn't generate chances within 20 feet of the net - is worth a 1st plus a roster player and a prospect? Other than Grit and other teams' GMs being morons?

I can envision a few different teams in the league [if the playoffs started next week] where adding a player like Simmonds would elevate their chances to win a cup.

 

[JackFr]

I can envision a few different teams in the league [if the playoffs started next week] where adding a player like Simmonds would elevate their chances to win a cup.

The only situation I can envision Simmonds actually elevating a team's Cup chances is if they desperately need a net front guy on the powerplay. Because Simmonds is a black hole at even strength.

 

[DearDiary]

Rick Nash, Martin Hanzal, Brendan Smith, Michael Grabner, Derick Brassard, Patrick Maroon- you should look up these UFA trades. These all happened in the past 2-3 years

Especially the Rich Nash deal and he retired at the end of the year.

Hanzal was an overpayment literally to add size to MIN 4th/3rd line.

Smith returned what you think anyone not on TOR is worth.

Brassard as a M6 C option returned a 2018 1st and 3rd, pospect (meh), and Ian Cole.

Patrick Maroon, much much much worse than Simmer, but same play style returned a 3rd and a meh prospect.

Y’all need to get off your high horse of our players only return gold.

Simmer has more value than all at this time than they had at their respective trade deals besides possibly Rick Nash and that’s a maybe.
Not saying the return is that, but I think everyone underestimates the market of rentals.

Brassard wasn't a rental, he had 2 years left on his deal

 

[Tripod]

The only situation I can envision Simmonds actually elevating a team's Cup chances is if they desperately need a net front guy on the powerplay. Because Simmonds is a black hole at even strength.

And yet Simmonds is 2nd on the Flyers in ES goals this year.

And Simmonds is tied for 46th in ES goals this year....along with:

Hoffman
Stamkos
Tkachuk
Palmieri
Kessel
Granlund
Eichel
Ehlers
Hall


Hell...he has more ES goals than Rantanen.

 

[CapnZin]

Also can I just super quick ask Flyers fans why they sincerely think their rental player who's on pace for 41 points and has gotten 42% of his points on the PP the past three seasons - who's also a horrible drain on possession and ironically doesn't generate chances within 20 feet of the net - is worth a 1st plus a roster player and a prospect? Other than Grit and other teams' GMs being morons?

Yes:

Points are points. As we see, PP chances highly correlate to winning teams. In regards to PP/P%... Simmonds averages 28 goals a season. 2 players on your team average more (Tavares who just joined and Matthews in 2 years while Simmonds has this average over 11 seasons). So assuming that 42%, obviously 100% of the 42% isn’t all of his PP points coming from goals so it’s much lower than the ratio I’ll give, correlate to goals, that means 11.76/28 come from the PP. Your PP argument is a cop out and invalid.

Simmonds, as a PF, also has defensive attributes: only have 5/11 (seasons being a - in turnovers) and the highest differential was -14 and the average of the - being -6.2. He’s also a career +5 in regards to TO. These seasons where he was a + in turnovers (very very rare for a PF). He’s also finished 21 in Selke voting which is the only true PF in recent history to even get more than 1 vote.

His career CF% is almost dead even for average (-.01 below) and same thing with career FF% (-.02 below). Funny enough too... he’s actually being used more as a defensive forward too (+.09) above the threshold.

Funny enough... for someone as a -51 career wise (+/- is a competely useless stat for hockey analysis), but correlating that to an average OPS of 3.62 and TPS of 4.76 is definitely good for metrics only used for Even Strength. He also has a career shooting percentage of 13.3% which is very good for someone that post an average of 28 goals a year.

“Simmonds doesn’t create chances within 20 feet”—> I’ll agree partially. If you’re talking about playmaking in that regard, then you don’t know Simmonds game. He’s solely a Net Front Presence.

This is his career heat map in HDO and a full box for PP. I will admit he’s more useful shooting on the PP, but again as you see he has a high density of shots within the HDO box which is an A opportunity and the two red dots are A+ opportunities. Your analysis is again wrong.

PP production is also what wins you games. That’s a cop out argument. I can say the same thing about Malkin receiving around 34 points last year in PP production out of his 90 whatever. It does nothing and is irrelevant. Don’t argue that way.

Saying Simmonds is a black hole offensively is just WRONG. Quite frankly, it’s worse than wrong.

Let’s not just focus on the “armchair analyst” with raw stats and sometimes delving deeper into metrics. Those show important facts about the game, but not everything.

Simmonds is a great leader. He stands up for his teammates along with for people who need a boost. Idk if you’ve ever played hockey, but those are the most valuable people to a lockeroom. Teams, typically, pay premiums for that feature. That’s what captains are made of.

I’m not trying to say Simmonds is some elite character the league has never seen. People say he’s overrated for ALL THE WRONG REASONS. Their cop out arguments that make everyone look, for a better term so I don’t get in trouble, uneducated.

Simmonds is a player everyone wants on their team. The price isn’t astronomical, but from all the leaf boards it’s literally 3rd + some highly overrated prospect for a T6 player. Players cost stuff...

Simmonds value is 1st + B/B+ prospect, 1st + 3rd, or 1st + B6 mainstay. Not that hard to grasp.

———————————

I can go on a rant saying that Kapanen metrics show he’s nothing without Matthews, but that won’t accomplish anything. Kapanen is turning into his own which is very good. He’s finally turning into the prospect most analysts envisioned.

If your only analysis of Simmonds is PP production, then I can just assume you’re a troll or you’re doing this to bait people.

I know the Main Board rules say to ignore trolls and people who bait, but this is why HF is sometimes insufferable. I thought you should learn something or two. That’s why I took the bait.

Don’t mean to attack or offend you. Context is key and you seemed to lack it.

 

[CapnZin]

Brassard wasn't a rental, he had 2 years left on his deal

Ah yes! Thank you. Sorry. The trade was contingent upon a signing. If Brassard wasn’t singing a bridge-like deal, the trade wouldn’t have happened per Rutherford.

He was their solution to the 3C problem for time due to lack of prospects and a potential cap crunch for FA salaries.

The context is very similar in regards to what teams want from rentals. Did that happen... idk? Idk if he signed another deal. I was reading a post-gazette article from Brandon Somerman where he stated that.

 

[JackFr]

If your only analysis of Simmonds is PP production, then I can just assume you’re a troll or you’re doing this to bait people.

I know the Main Board rules say to ignore trolls and people who bait, but this is why HF is sometimes insufferable. I thought you should learn something or two. That’s why I took the bait.

Don’t mean to attack or offend you. Context is key and you seemed to lack it.

Thank you for teaching me so much. I do appreciate that you're bringing in Micah's visualizations, but it's interesting that you selectively skipped over the most important ones.

You might have noticed that almost every asset you brought up is his career performance. You won't catch me saying Simmonds hasn't had a good career. As recently as 3 seasons ago he was a bonafide top line power forward. So was Lucic. Simmonds has absolutely fallen off a cliff at 5v5 production- AND possession-wise. When you're acquiring a rental, what they did 5 years ago doesn't really matter. It's the player you're getting for the rest of the season. And what you're getting is a guy who damages his team's offence at even strength. You're right, context does matter. The problem is your "context" is career turnover stats and not the player he's been the past two seasons.

I truly don't care that over the course of his 10 season career he's been a good net front guy and scorer. This isn't a conversation about 24 year old Simmonds, it's a conversation about 30 year old Simmonds.

Also sure, he has 8 goals at even strength this year. He also has 3 in his last 15. He got a pile in the first few games of the season, that's great. But let's not pretend he's having this superb season. By the way, this might shock you but I know that he's a netfront guy and not a playmaker - what I'm saying is that his "net front presence" does not actually lead to shots from close proximity anymore.

Basically you delivered the smuggest rebuttal possible while only using career metrics, which is completely laughable. Take your own lesson and learn how to use context bro.

(Also I'm not a Leafs fan, so whoops.)

 

[zeke]

dubas ain't trading for these types. sawry.