Prospect Info: General Prospect Discussion Thread 2020-21 - Part 2

[guitarhunterdude]

Could the year off impact his career? Sure.. but there is also just as much of a chance that it has zero impact. We don’t know for sure but to write it off as just being “a good chance he’s a capable top 6 C” is just a weak assumption. He has things to work on and get better at no different than most of the kids his age, the thing that took the biggest hit was his goal to jump right into the NHL and if anything it will motivate him more. The only thing that will stop him from being what he should be is if his health never is 100%.. not his development or work ethic. If we were talking someone like Sokolov and his work ethic, sure.. it’s a big deal.. but not someone like Marco.

It's still a year lost where he could've (and given his reputation, probably would've) gotten a taste of the NHL, learned what would and would not work in that league, and used that knowledge to improve. Instead he has to basically build himself back physically from square one, and he doesn't have that year of experience to improve whatever weaknesses he may have. If anyone can come back from that with minimal impact on their eventual ceiling I think it's Rossi, but concern is still warranted and it's not unreasonable to think that a full year less development at this critical age could prevent him from topping out as the 1C we're so desperate for.

 

[57special]

I don't see that one year (and a Covid year, at that)will make any difference at all to his development in the long term, assuming that his heart issues are behind him. He doesn't lose his skill, mind, and once he gets back training his body will recover. He's 20 yo, when things heal up fast, especially for guys like whom who go after it, and seem to pay attention to training and diet more than most.
I always thought that expecting him to contribute last year in the NHL was extremely optimistic. At this point, I am hoping he will be able to be up in 22-23. Boldy took two years to develop, and IMO is a similar level prospect, playing an easier position, with zero health issues and a smoother development path. Don't see how we can expect Rossi to get up faster than him, given all those factors. It's not his problem that we have a shortage of C's, and we shouldn't rush him because of it.

 

[Bazeek]

I don't see that one year (and a Covid year, at that)will make any difference at all to his development in the long term, assuming that his heart issues are behind him. He doesn't lose his skill, mind, and once he gets back training his body will recover. He's 20 yo, when things heal up fast, especially for guys like whom who go after it, and seem to pay attention to training and diet more than most.
I always thought that expecting him to contribute last year in the NHL was extremely optimistic. At this point, I am hoping he will be able to be up in 22-23. Boldy took two years to develop, and IMO is a similar level prospect, playing an easier position, with zero health issues and a smoother development path. Don't see how we can expect Rossi to get up faster than him, given all those factors. It's not is problem that we have a shortage of C's, and we shouldn't rush him because of it.

Agreed. My biggest questions with Rossi have been how long it'll take him to adjust to bigger/more physical competition with less time and space, and, once he does that, where it leaves him in terms of position. The unfortunate thing is that, with the OHL not playing this year, it would have been an ideal opportunity to let him play his D+1 year in the AHL if he wasn't ready for NHL minutes straight out of camp.

But in a normal year he probably would've been back in Ottawa smoking that league again anyway, and I don't know that that would've really catapulted him along in terms of development either. So kind of a missed opportunity, but I doubt it's something that's set him back long term.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Agreed. My biggest questions with Rossi have been how long it'll take him to adjust to bigger/more physical competition with less time and space, and, once he does that, where it leaves him in terms of position. The unfortunate thing is that, with the OHL not playing this year, it would have been an ideal opportunity to let him play his D+1 year in the AHL if he wasn't ready for NHL minutes straight out of camp.

But in a normal year he probably would've been back in Ottawa smoking that league again anyway, and I don't know that that would've really catapulted him along in terms of development either. So kind of a missed opportunity, but I doubt it's something that's set him back long term.

He was playing for Zurich if not the NHL this year

 

[57special]

He was playing for Zurich if not the NHL this year

yes, but in an extremely limited amount, and while he was experiencing Covid symptoms for a part of those games. Nothing like a full, healthy season, nvm the competitive atmosphere was near non existent given the circumstances. I would imagine a lot of games were more like organized scrimmages.

Wait, he only played 1 game in the NL this past year?

 

[Bazeek]

He was playing for Zurich if not the NHL this year

Still, I mean in terms of CHL prospects in general. For guys like Rossi that are too good for major junior but (maybe) not quite ready for the NHL, does that extra year in the CHL really move the needle much in either direction? It's obviously better to play than to not play, but it doesn't seem like something that derails a player.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Still, I mean in terms of CHL prospects in general. For guys like Rossi that are too good for major junior but (maybe) not quite ready for the NHL, does that extra year in the CHL really move the needle much in either direction? It's obviously better to play than to not play, but it doesn't seem like something that derails a player.

That would be an interesting study to break down, but in theory you’d think they don’t get much from putting up 2+ppg in a league.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

yes, but in an extremely limited amount, and while he was experiencing Covid symptoms for a part of those games. Nothing like a full, healthy season, nvm the competitive atmosphere was near non existent given the circumstances. I would imagine a lot of games were more like organized scrimmages.

Wait, he only played 1 game in the NL this past year?

I know I was just saying that he would’ve played for Zurich this year, not the AHL/CHL

 

[nickschultzfan]

Wild have had dozens of top prospects that needed development in the lower leagues.

However, Rossi is a different cat. In his draft year, he lead the OHL by a wide margin in scoring. And he did it while playing arguably the best 200 foot game in the league. The OHL is the top non-professional league in the world at producing offensive talents in the NHL.

Even if he took a step back, he is still ahead in the path to be a top-6 NHL forward.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I know I was just saying that he would’ve played for Zurich this year, not the AHL/CHL

If it was a completely normal year, indications from Russo were that he would have to have played in the OHL if not the NHL. He was able to sign with Zurich because the OHL wasn't operational.

I question whether or not that was accurate, as if he was on Loan from Zurich to the OHL he might have fallen under the Julius Honka loophole that allowed him to play in the AHL post draft, but never seen any confirmation on how Rossi ended up in Ottawa.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

If it was a completely normal year, indications from Russo were that he would have to have played in the OHL if not the NHL. He was able to sign with Zurich because the OHL wasn't operational.

I question whether or not that was accurate, as if he was on Loan from Zurich to the OHL he might have fallen under the Julius Honka loophole that allowed him to play in the AHL post draft, but never seen any confirmation on how Rossi ended up in Ottawa.

He didn’t fall under that loophole because he want one loan from Zurich, he played 2 years in the OHL. But, my understanding is that the transfer agreements for CHL players only exists for the NHL. You can leave the CHL for other pro leagues. His agent had always said that he wasn’t going back to the OHL, even before the season didn’t happen.

 

[ThatGuy22]

He didn’t fall under that loophole because he want one loan from Zurich, he played 2 years in the OHL. But, my understanding is that the transfer agreements for CHL players only exists for the NHL. You can leave the CHL for other pro leagues. His agent had always said that he wasn’t going back to the OHL, even before the season didn’t happen.

Assuming that's true about the loan.

He signed with the Wild about a week after the draft. After he was under contract, if the OHL was up and running it would have been NHL or OHL only in a normal season. The Wild would have been obligated to send him to the OHL.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Assuming that's true about the loan.

He signed with the Wild about a week after the draft. After he was under contract, if the OHL was up and running it would have been NHL or OHL only in a normal season. The Wild would have been obligated to send him to the OHL.

I don’t know that that’s true, but you’re usually on top of this stuff, so I’ll take your word for it

 

[ThatGuy22]

I don’t know that that’s true, but you’re usually on top of this stuff, so I’ll take your word for it

It is the case. Which is why it was very likely without the Miocarditis he was making the Wild. No use dominating the OHL again. Granted the OHL never started up so had he not had Miocarditis he could have spent time in the AHL. But at the time all that was going down it was assumed sooner or later the OHL would figure out how to play like the Q and Whl.

All in all a complicated situation this year.

 

[AKL]

Vilardi missed significant time, more than Rossi, between his draft+1 and draft+3 years, including almost his entire draft+2 year, and he's still projecting to be a 2C. Rossi was/is a much better prospect than Vilardi was, and arguably his best attribute is his work ethic. I think he'll be fine in the long term, assuming no more health complications.

 

[guitarhunterdude]

Vilardi missed significant time, more than Rossi, between his draft+1 and draft+3 years, including almost his entire draft+2 year, and he's still projecting to be a 2C. Rossi was/is a much better prospect than Vilardi was, and arguably his best attribute is his work ethic. I think he'll be fine in the long term, assuming no more health complications.

I agree he'll be fine, I just disagree about what "fine" means. I think it's likely he's a capable top-sox center . I think it's possible he's a 1C, but I'm not going to bet on it. Rarely is the 4th or 5th best player in a draft (where I had him ranked prior to the draft) a first-liner on a good team, especially a center.

I dunno if I see Vilardi as a guy who would be 2C on a good team, even with some more seasoning. Vilardi's also a lot bigger than Rossi, so the floor may be a little higher there as well, though Rossi's clearly still the better prospect.

 

[TaLoN]

Rarely is the 4th or 5th best player in a draft (where I had him ranked prior to the draft) a first-liner on a good team, especially a center.

Huh? First liners come from all over the draft board... why do you think that's rare?

Kopitar wasn't a top 3 pick you know, neither was Pasternak.

If you mean by raw percentage, then its against every draft pick going into it, but that doesn't make it "rare".

I'd say money is still in his favor based on skill.

 

[AKL]

Huh? First liners come from all over the draft board... why do you think that's rare?

Kopitar wasn't a top 3 pick you know, neither was Pasternak.

If you mean by raw percentage, then its against every draft pick going into it, but that doesn't make it "rare".

I'd say money is still in his favor based on skill.

Suzuki 13th
Aho 35th
Point 79th
Pettersson 5th
Barzal 16th
Larkin 15th

That's just centers off the top of my head from recent years, the list of players in general is a lot longer

Besides, looking at a specific player in the scope of "only 2-3 guys from each draft become first liners" takes away from the fact that these players are all different from each other. Rossi was projected as a guy who could be an all situations number one center based on his skillset. Just because he was the 9th pick doesn't mean that's suddenly not true anymore.
Lastly, 2020 was a pretty historically top heavy draft, so it wouldn't come as a surprise if a larger percentage of the guys at the top ended up becoming first line players. The other thing to consider is that Rossi was the 2nd center taken at that draft, the 2nd best center going into the draft (and actually had a better season than the first, but size).

 

[57special]

Bergeron 45th

There is no guarantee that a top draft pick will be a top player, but also no guarantee that a lower draft pick will not be a top player.

 

[Leeves]

Who do you think will be the next little known prospect to surprise us and make the team. I remember seeing buzz about soucy in Iowa and development camp and wondering who is this guy? Great 5th round pick for us right there.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Who do you think will be the next little known prospect to surprise us and make the team. I remember seeing buzz about soucy in Iowa and development camp and wondering who is this guy? Great 5th round pick for us right there.

I'm pretty high on Menell, but I think he's pretty known by now.

A lot of people like Firstov, but I'm not really sure where he's going to break in on the roster.

Nesterenko maybe.

 

[Leeves]

I'm pretty high on Menell, but I think he's pretty known by now.

A lot of people like Firstov, but I'm not really sure where he's going to break in on the roster.

Nesterenko maybe.

From the little I've seen of Nesterenko at BC he looked decent. He's an interesting one.

I'm keeping an eye on Goreev, I believe he's playing in Iowa this year.

 

[guitarhunterdude]

Who do you think will be the next little known prospect to surprise us and make the team. I remember seeing buzz about soucy in Iowa and development camp and wondering who is this guy? Great 5th round pick for us right there.

Nesterenko as a bottom-six wing, but I don't know if I'd be that surprised.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Who do you think will be the next little known prospect to surprise us and make the team. I remember seeing buzz about soucy in Iowa and development camp and wondering who is this guy? Great 5th round pick for us right there.

Going from oldest to youngest:

Sam Hentges will be turning 22 this year, but could be a good depth forward for Minnesota. He has what they are missing - a right-handed shot. He's listed as a center, but who knows if he'll stick at the position in the pros. He's put together a pretty solid career at St. Cloud State. Could end up being an older prospect if they let him head to St. Cloud for his senior year.

Marshall Warren was considered a top 60 prospect in 2019, but dropped to the 6th round. Can't say how good he'll be as his numbers aren't there, but as a defenseman numbers don't always tell the entire story. With the shallow depth on the left side Warren could be seen as a depth defenseman if he continues on his path of development. I think once he gets to Minnesota, he'll see a progression similar to Soucy.

Pavel Novak is an intriguing prospect and like Hentges plays a position of need - right wing. He lost this year in the WHL and bounced around it looks like between the two Czech leagues. Put up some numbers at the U20 with the Czech National team and even got a game with the pro team. Looks like he's heading back to the Czech next year as well. Could be a good player to have in the system.

Missing the cut:

Jack McBain - was excited for him, put together a decent year last year but was that due to the talent or was he finally putting his game together?

 

[Bazeek]

Going from oldest to youngest:

Sam Hentges will be turning 22 this year, but could be a good depth forward for Minnesota. He has what they are missing - a right-handed shot. He's listed as a center, but who knows if he'll stick at the position in the pros. He's put together a pretty solid career at St. Cloud State. Could end up being an older prospect if they let him head to St. Cloud for his senior year.

Marshall Warren was considered a top 60 prospect in 2019, but dropped to the 6th round. Can't say how good he'll be as his numbers aren't there, but as a defenseman numbers don't always tell the entire story. With the shallow depth on the left side Warren could be seen as a depth defenseman if he continues on his path of development. I think once he gets to Minnesota, he'll see a progression similar to Soucy.

Pavel Novak is an intriguing prospect and like Hentges plays a position of need - right wing. He lost this year in the WHL and bounced around it looks like between the two Czech leagues. Put up some numbers at the U20 with the Czech National team and even got a game with the pro team. Looks like he's heading back to the Czech next year as well. Could be a good player to have in the system.

Missing the cut:

Jack McBain - was excited for him, put together a decent year last year but was that due to the talent or was he finally putting his game together?

I think McBain could work his way into a utility-forward/fourth line role down the line, but his skating probably needs to get better.

Novak's an interesting one because I have no idea what to take away from numbers from the Czech leagues and he's done pretty well against his peers.