General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

[Lt Dan]

Preface- this is now updated once a week. Last update was Friday

1 death for 4 days is pretty stellar
Cases are averaging 82.75 per day
Hosp is up 10 since Friday , but ICU is down 1

 

[Schrute farms]

I actually think these numbers are very encouraging. With the Delta variant and all the doom/fear pushed, you would expect the numbers to be even higher. Maybe it will eventually show up in the numbers and happen. But even an additional 25% rise in CV numbers would be a huge success (imho) in the fight against CV and that we have a decent amount of herd immunity....further proof we can go back to near normal activities (at least for those who want to).

 

[Lt Dan]

I actually think these numbers are very encouraging. With the Delta variant and all the doom/fear pushed, you would expect the numbers to be even higher. Maybe it will eventually show up in the numbers and happen. But even an additional 25% rise in CV numbers would be a huge success (imho) in the fight against CV and that we have a decent amount of herd immunity....further proof we can go back to near normal activities (at least for those who want to).

Indeed man

I seriously think between the vaccine and 2020 we hit herd immunity in most parts of CA. Especially LA and OC

That is CA
These numbers are the lowest they have ever been
July 4 of 20 the 7 day average was 7775 cases, this year it was 1287


Big picture, this is the US overall

I think we might see some flareups in the low vaccination states which will lead to herd immunity and increased vacc rates there

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Nevada, I believe, currently has the highest rate of new cases per capita in the entire country. Our positivity rate topped 8% over July 4th weekend. Only 41% of our population is fully vaccinated. I'm just glad my wife and I are a part of that 41%.

 

[Lt Dan]

Nevada, I believe, currently has the highest rate of new cases per capita in the entire country. Our positivity rate topped 8% over July 4th weekend. Only 41% of our population is fully vaccinated. I'm just glad my wife and I are a part of that 41%.

Nevada isn't doing too bad

July 4 last year average of 748 new cases a day
this year average of 458 new cases

these numbers aren't horrible btw. Orange isn't ideal , but they aren't red or dark red

and there are two worse states on new cases. I think AR definitely has you even with per capita being factored in

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Nevada isn't doing too bad
View attachment 451751

July 4 last year average of 748 new cases a day
this year average of 458 new cases

these numbers aren't horrible btw. Orange isn't ideal , but they aren't red or dark red

View attachment 451752

and there are two worse states on new cases. I think AR definitely has you even with per capita being factored in

View attachment 451753

Goes to show just how effective vaccinations are against spread. I hope this recent spike just plateaus where it is now and goes back down.

Fall/winter, I think, is a new ballgame for the entire country, and when spread will significantly increase everywhere again among unvaccinated populations. I'm afraid vaccination rates have plateaued, although a few people I know are finally getting their first doses because of delta and lack of mask mandates to protect them.

I think a good 20-25% of the adult population will just never get vaccinated period. Sad.

 

[Lt Dan]

Goes to show just how effective vaccinations are against spread. I hope this recent spike just plateaus where it is now and goes back down.

Fall/winter, I think, is a new ballgame for the entire country, and when spread will significantly increase everywhere again among unvaccinated populations. I'm afraid vaccination rates have plateaued, although a few people I know are finally getting their first doses because of delta and lack of mask mandates to protect them.

I think a good 20-25% of the adult population will just never get vaccinated period. Sad.

Bingo

I hope we don't lockdown again, but this fall will likely be very trying on the health care system and our central nervous systems.

We will truly see the effects of the vaccine and herd immunity then

 

[Schrute farms]

I've always thought the positive test rate percentage is the least valuable data point. Maybe i'm wrong and i don't know what i'm talking about. But the rate itself is dependent on the overall number of people who don't have CV but feel sick or simply want some additional confirmation they don't have it and/or they are going somewhere (family visit/gathering, trip, etc.) and get tested. New cases per 100K is WAY more important....and then infection rate. I just don't care much at all about the positive test rate....or at least take it with a grain of salt.

 

[tny760]

I've always thought the positive test rate percentage is the least valuable data point. Maybe i'm wrong and i don't know what i'm talking about. But the rate itself is dependent on the overall number of people who don't have CV but feel sick or simply want some additional confirmation they don't have it and/or they are going somewhere (family visit/gathering, trip, etc.) and get tested. New cases per 100K is WAY more important....and then infection rate. I just don't care much at all about the positive test rate....or at least take it with a grain of salt.

i've always kinda felt the same way, personally i paid a lot more attention to the hospitalization numbers to guide my choices. when the hospitalization numbers were peak and the ICUs were full i drove a lot less cause i wasn't super interested in potentially not having an ICU bed if i got smoked at a red light or something out of my control

it's not to say that isn't an important data point in research terms, it's just not something i really cared about when it came to me given the whole concept of asymptomatic carriers

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

These are not facts.

Here are the ingredients for Pfizer:

mRNA, lipids ((4-hydroxybutyl)azanediyl)bis(hexane-6,1-diyl)bis(2-hexyldecanoate), 2 [(polyethylene glycol)-2000]-N,N-ditetradecylacetamide, 1,2-Distearoyl-sn-glycero-3- phosphocholine, and cholesterol), potassium chloride, monobasic potassium phosphate, sodium chloride, dibasic sodium phosphate dihydrate, and sucrose.

Here are the ingredients for Moderna:

a total lipid content of 1.93 mg (SM-102, polyethylene glycol [PEG] 2000 dimyristoyl glycerol [DMG], cholesterol, and 1,2-distearoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine [DSPC]), 0.31 mg tromethamine, 1.18 mg tromethamine hydrochloride, 0.043 mg acetic acid, 0.12 mg sodium acetate, and 43.5 mg sucrose.

If you aren't good at IUPAC, there are some fats, some lipid synthesizers, some typical body steroids, some salts, and some sugar. Zero transition metals. There aren't even any alkali earth metals, all of the salts are halogenated.

So, no, there aren't any metals in the vaccines. This misconception comes from the fact that vaccines used to contain merthiolate, which used to be in vaccines. Note that this is an ethyl-merc, not a methyl-merc, so it's cleared from the body rather quickly and is not nearly as toxic as your methyls.

No one knows what causes Alzheimer's, so if you are sure it's metals you should take that to a journal along with your credentials. You'll be a millionaire and considered a genius. Don't forget to bring your research so they actually believe you. Before you do that, realize that all prevailing research on Alzheimer's indicates that protein aggregation (Amyloid B) and changes in protein folding (predominantly Tau's who fold differently and polymerize, causing protein tangling) are the primary cause of Alzheimer's and possibly other neurodegenerative diseases.

You have a point about the spike proteins, because while they do stop producing (RNA doesn't last that long) we are uncertain how long exactly they stick around. Seeing how this has caused zero problems in the hundreds of millions of doses since the beginning of the year, I'm going to go on a limb and say it probably doesn't matter. If the RNA stuck around, the two-shot sequence wouldn't be needed.

Did you ever check on that pillow case?

Thank you for the elaborate response. Just finished 6 shifts out of 8 days. Our ICU numbers are picking up here and there. Not overloaded at this time but we're managing.

 

[Lt Dan]

Weekly update time

This is averaging out to 150 cases a day , which is about triple where we were
Hosp is up 46 since last Tuesday
ICU is up 14

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Indeed man

I seriously think between the vaccine and 2020 we hit herd immunity in most parts of CA. Especially LA and OC

That is CA
These numbers are the lowest they have ever been
July 4 of 20 the 7 day average was 7775 cases, this year it was 1287


Big picture, this is the US overall

I think we might see some flareups in the low vaccination states which will lead to herd immunity and increased vacc rates there

Hey look, if you look closely at the very top of the curve, you can see me!

Nevada, I believe, currently has the highest rate of new cases per capita in the entire country. Our positivity rate topped 8% over July 4th weekend. Only 41% of our population is fully vaccinated. I'm just glad my wife and I are a part of that 41%.

Massive travel destination effect maybe? Man I can't even count how many of my friends headed to Vegas between the end of june and now.

I've always thought the positive test rate percentage is the least valuable data point. Maybe i'm wrong and i don't know what i'm talking about. But the rate itself is dependent on the overall number of people who don't have CV but feel sick or simply want some additional confirmation they don't have it and/or they are going somewhere (family visit/gathering, trip, etc.) and get tested. New cases per 100K is WAY more important....and then infection rate. I just don't care much at all about the positive test rate....or at least take it with a grain of salt.

I think it was pretty valuable when mass testing was going on, but it certainly has a lot less value now, when I couldn't even hardly tell you where to get a same-day test anymore.

 

[Gjwrams]

England is going thorough their "Delta" spike now and just opened everything up, hoping for the "Herd Immunity" approach. They figured they got as many people vaccinated that were going to get vaccinated so let the chips fall were they may.

My opinion is we cannot shutdown again because some folks won't vaccinate. The stat I saw somewhere was 95% of COVID related hospitalizations are for unvaccinated folks. Don't quote me on that stat, but it is probably about that #.

 

[Schrute farms]

I agree that pretty much this is it with the vaccine numbers.

There might be a decent group that will get it if/when the FDA gets off the ars and finally finishes "crossing the T's and doting the I's" as Fauci says. I'm completely shocked at his level of shock that some do not trust him and would prefer to hold off until the FDA gives official approval. It's what I was doing until I broke down, wanted some normalcy and gave in. Why isn't the FDA working under emergency orders 24/7 getting this approved.

Still, those people won't make a huge dent. So it's basically this is it and we just have to push through with the rest.....and some form of CV around in. Hopefully those unvaccinated don't get too sick and bad. Hopefully going forward there is some natural immunity with them. If not, in the long-term, maybe we get some better treatment for those that get sick -- which seems to be in the works i've read recently.

 

[kingsboy11]

We were doing really well in this thread avoiding politics for a while. I'm not having it anymore.

 

[Lt Dan]

It is spreading quickly again
I wonder if whichever variant is causing this outbreak is going the more contagious but less deadly route?
Or if the hospitals are going to be flooded in 3 weeks?

 

[Fishhead]

I'm hoping that's the case Lt. A friend of mine who was holding out on his shots ended up with Delta, he said it's pretty gnarly. It was enough to make him seriously consider his stance, which is a really big thing for a guy like him.

It looks like it could move through the unvaxxed population pretty quickly, and because at this point a substantial amount people aren't likely to change their minds about getting jabbed, it's probably going to be one of the paths to having a form of herd immunity. It would be great if seeing cases climbing again pushes those on the fence to get a shot, another 5% would take the at least 1 shot crowd up near 70%. Not holding my breath on that one though.

 

[Lt Dan]

I'm hoping that's the case Lt. A friend of mine who was holding out on his shots ended up with Delta, he said it's pretty gnarly. It was enough to make him seriously consider his stance, which is a really big thing for a guy like him.

It looks like it could move through the unvaxxed population pretty quickly, and because at this point a substantial amount people aren't likely to change their minds about getting jabbed, it's probably going to be one of the paths to having a form of herd immunity. It would be great if seeing cases climbing again pushes those on the fence to get a shot, another 5% would take the at least 1 shot crowd up near 70%. Not holding my breath on that one though.

A few things

1) Did he end up in the hospital? Or was it just a gnarly case at home?


2) if completely true, this is very interesting
All Covid-19 patients in Los Angeles County hospitals are unvaccinated, officials say

I had heard 90% numbers from OC, but 100% unvaxxed? Wow. I am skeptical that it is truly 100% but let's go with 90% range and we do have a lot of hope


3) A wise person said to me that a lot of people will reconsider their stance on the vaxx when this virus strikes home and someone close to them has a bad case or a fatal case of the virus and you mentioned your friend re-thinking his stance above.


4) I do wonder how sustainable this surge is. (I just posted all of this on the main board and I am pasting here)
These are LA County specific

Like OC, the virus is spreading fast but hosp is lagging more than normal . The hosp stat should be more "real time" than the case numbers. Hosp stats usually lag 24-28 hours where the case stats usually lag a week from testing --->> processing---> reporting

(this is why I was asking about your friend) Our silver lining could be here that this virus is doing what it should and mutating to be more contagious and less lethal.

400ish out of 10 million is actually pretty good But we will have to wait and see here



There is no question that LA county is in another wave. The question is gonna be, how long can it last?
Unless we start seeing a lot of reinfections, it should be short.

LA had a horrible run in the winter , combined with their vaxx rate of near 70% , it shouldn't be sustainable for very long

Fingers way crossed

 

[Maynard]

Hopefully the “it’s not a real problem until it happens to me” crowd will either stop being selfish idiots, or they’ll just die off and there will be a few less dumbshits on the planet. Fingers crossed!

 

[Gjwrams]

Yes...The people getting infected and being hospitalized are almost entirely unvaccinated folks. Unless vaccinated folks start getting infected or re-infected because of the "variant", then I can't see us going into another lock down.

 

[Fishhead]

He wasn't hospitalized, just totally miserable. It really knocked him down a few pegs.

I totally get the skepticism from some, I mean trust isn't at an all-time high in this country. But vaccines are why we don't have things like polio, mumps, measles, and so on rampant everywhere. The irony that always gets me is my friends that aren't vaccinated give their reasons, which I respect, then they pop a few Advil for aches and pains. Advil is far more dangerous for you than any COVID vaccine, yet they are fine with it.

Vaccination status being associated with anything other than health, whether it's political, religious, or otherwise, is a threat to public health as a whole. It's just something that comes along with a lot of the other freedoms our society enjoys.

 

[Lt Dan]

He wasn't hospitalized, just totally miserable. It really knocked him down a few pegs.

That is largely what is being seen with the delta variant, which is good

This is from my buddy dortt on the main boards

I totally get the skepticism from some, I mean trust isn't at an all-time high in this country. But vaccines are why we don't have things like polio, mumps, measles, and so on rampant everywhere. The irony that always gets me is my friends that aren't vaccinated give their reasons, which I respect, then they pop a few Advil for aches and pains. Advil is far more dangerous for you than any COVID vaccine, yet they are fine with it.

Vaccination status being associated with anything other than health, whether it's political, religious, or otherwise, is a threat to public health as a whole. It's just something that comes along with a lot of the other freedoms our society enjoys.

 

[Lt Dan]

 

[KINGS17]

He wasn't hospitalized, just totally miserable. It really knocked him down a few pegs.

I totally get the skepticism from some, I mean trust isn't at an all-time high in this country. But vaccines are why we don't have things like polio, mumps, measles, and so on rampant everywhere. The irony that always gets me is my friends that aren't vaccinated give their reasons, which I respect, then they pop a few Advil for aches and pains. Advil is far more dangerous for you than any COVID vaccine, yet they are fine with it.

Vaccination status being associated with anything other than health, whether it's political, religious, or otherwise, is a threat to public health as a whole. It's just something that comes along with a lot of the other freedoms our society enjoys.

I can understand the reluctance of some segments of the population to get vaccinated, especially healthy people that are 20-40 years of age. There are some issues regarding myocarditis in young men which are not well understood.

It's a personal choice. I have been vaccinated, so I guess I don't consider it a public health issue as much as an individual one, since everyone has had an equal opportunity to get fully vaccinated.

 

[BigKing]

I can understand the reluctance of some segments of the population to get vaccinated, especially healthy people that are 20-40 years of age. There are some issues regarding myocarditis in young men which are not well understood.

It's a personal choice. I have been vaccinated, so I guess I don't consider it a public health issue as much as an individual one, since everyone has had an equal opportunity to get fully vaccinated.

I got it but didn't necessarily want to but I'd like to travel easier and whatnot. I also go to work every day even though I don't want to because I want to make money.

The political angle is just not a valid reason but I get it if people don't "trust" it because they don't want to feel like a guinea pig. I also get why young people don't get it because they don't feel like it will effect them...even more so if their elderly parents/grandparents have now been vaccinated.

It's just funny to me that the vaccine numbers will not reach the goal partly due to political beliefs, like Eric in Reseda not getting vaccinated because of the Libs moves the needle for anyone except Eric to feel good about himself. But, like, that's what makes America great...question mark.