Value of: Gardiner Should be shopped

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Leafs are kinda "going for it", so the Leafs aren't going to trade Gardiner for futures. Leafs need him this season (maybe not in a game seven). Just for cap reasons, the Leafs can't afford to keep him, and really LHD is OK without him.

 

[Fogelhund]

What about a deal, based around Colin Miller for Gardiner? Whatever picks/prospects are necessary to even it out... I don't know exactly what that would take.

Vegas is hurting offensively this year, and getting no production out of their D men. Gardiner could help there.

Miller is a solid RHD, good defensively. and is locked in for this season + 3 at $3.875 mil.

I appreciate that Vegas would need to possibly add, not sure what that would be... but it is the type of trade that helps address our weakness both now and long-term, using a soon to be UFA, that we can't keep.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Dubas addressed this exact scenario already. He said basically that it is easy to say "You didn't trade this guy and were out in the first round, you could have had XYZ for the future".

However, in practice, unless you area rebuilding team, your room believes they have a chance to win. Even still, they think they can win. Confidence and ego's are a hell of a thing.

How, as a GM, do you go into a room after telling them you want them to win a cup, and say "sorry guys but you are likely a first round team anyway so I wanted a first round pick" without killing the room?

We saw this exact thing twice in recent months. The blues moved Statsny at the deadline when the team was in a playoff spot. The players were really upset right after, and they missed the playoffs by a few points. Off to a terrible start this year.

Ottawa waived Smith even after moving Karlsson the team was still really upset to lose someone they felt was important to them.

The nature of the game is, if you get in, you have a chance to win. Rarely do the top team win it all.

So it's very easy to criticize Dubas for letting guys walk for nothing, without really understanding the impact such a move would have on the team moral. You don't want to build a culture of "there's always next year" especially in a young group or that is how you get the spinning tires rebuild.

Not only that, but you also lose the value that player brings to your team during the playoffs. You essentially weaken your team now for future assets.

So tell me, how does a GM go into the room that is on pace and would eventually break the single season points record for their over 100 year old franchise and tell them they are trading a guy who put almost 40 goals and a center which kills their depth because he doesn't think they can win? Or how you do that with Jake this year.

Like it or not, this year and last year the Leafs could have won the cup. Not to say they are or were favorites, but that they have a goalie who can steal them games and a lot of the same formula of recent winners. To say "no they won't win" and keep moving for futures is how you build a losing culture.

What about the year before that when the moved Shattenkirk, then the room came together went on a run to make the playoffs and made the 2nd round? You can't use the bad examples and then just ignore the good ones.

Also doing that twice, and the lopsided Reaves trade allowed the Blues to gather add 3 top quality assets to their asset/prospect pool to bring it to the following total: 2016 26th overall(Tage Thompson), 2017 20th overall(Robert Thomas), 2017 27th overall, 2017 31st overall(Klim Kostin), 2018 14th overall, 2018 25th overall(Dominik Bokk), 2019 1st round pick. That's 7 high end assets in 4 years. Allowed them to trade Thompson, 2017 27th overall(Morgan Frost), 2018 14th overall(Joel Farabee), and 2019 1st round pick for Ryan O'Reilly and Brayden Schenn, shoring up their top 2 centers for the foreseeable future all the while maintaining a high end prospect pool with guys like Thomas, Bokk, Kostin, and Kyrou. Sure they're off to a bad start this year, but can you imagine how terrible they would be without Selke caliber defense and 14 points from ROR in 10 games and 9 points from Schenn in 10 games? I imagine it would be quite a bit worse. They're set up for the foreseeable future now thanks to being able to figure out their biggest weakness(Center) and at the same time continue churning out those high level prospects to add to their roster.

Or they could have went for it and held onto those expiring assets or even worse traded their 1sts like Minnesota did in 2017 for Hanzal and lost 1st round, or Boston did in 2018 for Nash and lost 2nd round. I'm sure that combined 1 playoff series win for those 2 teams was much more satisfying than the Blues 1 series win in those same years. I'd say your example is a point in favour of trading expiring assets rather than the point against you seem to be trying to make it.

 

[Kamiccolo]

What about the year before that when the moved Shattenkirk, then the room came together went on a run to make the playoffs and made the 2nd round? You can't use the bad examples and then just ignore the good ones.

Also doing that twice, and the lopsided Reaves trade allowed the Blues to gather add 3 top quality assets to their asset/prospect pool to bring it to the following total: 2016 26th overall(Tage Thompson), 2017 20th overall(Robert Thomas), 2017 27th overall, 2017 31st overall(Klim Kostin), 2018 14th overall, 2018 25th overall(Dominik Bokk), 2019 1st round pick. That's 7 high end assets in 4 years. Allowed them to trade Thompson, 2017 27th overall(Morgan Frost), 2018 14th overall(Joel Farabee), and 2019 1st round pick for Ryan O'Reilly and Brayden Schenn, shoring up their top 2 centers for the foreseeable future all the while maintaining a high end prospect pool with guys like Thomas, Bokk, Kostin, and Kyrou. Sure they're off to a bad start this year, but can you imagine how terrible they would be without Selke caliber defense and 14 points from ROR in 10 games and 9 points from Schenn in 10 games? I imagine it would be quite a bit worse. They're set up for the foreseeable future now thanks to being able to figure out their biggest weakness(Center) and at the same time continue churning out those high level prospects to add to their roster.

Or they could have went for it and held onto those expiring assets or even worse traded their 1sts like Minnesota did in 2017 for Hanzal and lost 1st round, or Boston did in 2018 for Nash and lost 2nd round. I'm sure that combined 1 playoff series win for those 2 teams was much more satisfying than the Blues 1 series win in those same years. I'd say your example is a point in favour of trading expiring assets rather than the point against you seem to be trying to make it.

The difference is the Blues have never had a true star. Tare recently but even still he isn't really at that level. The blues were always the bubble team. Not bad enough to get good prospects, not good enough to ever really win a cup or even challenge for one.

Leafs on the other hand were really bad. Blues were making the playoffs, Leafs were drafting the depth your organization acquired while spinning their tires. Now the Blues are in the same spot, and the Leafs collected their depth and have the star power to go for it. Adding a bunch of bottom 6ers and 2nd line wingers years away do not help especially when they already have a good enough depth cast that guys like Kapenen can sit there and when he gets minutes becomes that impact type of player.

I just think they are in different spots. The Blues just want to stay a playoff team. The Leafs want to win one.

 

[Canada4Gold]

The difference is the Blues have never had a true star. Tare recently but even still he isn't really at that level. The blues were always the bubble team. Not bad enough to get good prospects, not good enough to ever really win a cup or even challenge for one.

Leafs on the other hand were really bad. Blues were making the playoffs, Leafs were drafting the depth your organization acquired while spinning their tires. Now the Blues are in the same spot, and the Leafs collected their depth and have the star power to go for it. Adding a bunch of bottom 6ers and 2nd line wingers years away do not help especially when they already have a good enough depth cast that guys like Kapenen can sit there and when he gets minutes becomes that impact type of player.

I just think they are in different spots. The Blues just want to stay a playoff team. The Leafs want to win one.

The point was that the Blues used those 3 trades to add 3 1st round picks, bringing their total in those 4 years to 7, and by having a top quality 2nd round pick in Kyrou it gave them 8 1st round quality assets in 4 years. That bank of assets allowed to to use half of them to fix their weakness while maintaining the average of 1 1st round asset per year over those 4 years. The Leafs have a similar weakness, except theirs is on defense. Imagine if the Leafs had traded JVR(1st + 2nd), Bozak(2nd), and Komarov(3rd) last year, or Gardiner(1st+2nd) this year(IF they don't plan on resigning him) and get 2 1sts, and 3 2nds, and a 3rd. When trades like Hamilton or Hamonic(1st + 2 2nds) come along those are your assets yiou use to get those guys. You use your expiring contracts to obtain expendable assets to fix your weakness. Sure it might be dissappointing for the team last and this year to lose that guy(s) going into the playoffs. But I'm sure they'd be pumped about bringing in guys like Hamilton or Hamonic using those assets rather than subtracting from the offense to do so or completely drying up the prospect pool.

 

[Kamiccolo]

The point was that the Blues used those 3 trades to add 3 1st round picks, bringing their total in those 4 years to 7, and by having a top quality 2nd round pick in Kyrou it gave them 8 1st round quality assets in 4 years. That bank of assets allowed to to use half of them to fix their weakness while maintaining the average of 1 1st round asset per year over those 4 years. The Leafs have a similar weakness, except theirs is on defense. Imagine if the Leafs had traded JVR(1st + 2nd), Bozak(2nd), and Komarov(3rd) last year, or Gardiner(1st+2nd) this year(IF they don't plan on resigning him) and get 2 1sts, and 3 2nds, and a 3rd. When trades like Hamilton or Hamonic(1st + 2 2nds) come along those are your assets yiou use to get those guys. You use your expiring contracts to obtain expendable assets to fix your weakness. Sure it might be dissappointing for the team last and this year to lose that guy(s) going into the playoffs. But I'm sure they'd be pumped about bringing in guys like Hamilton or Hamonic using those assets rather than subtracting from the offense to do so or completely drying up the prospect pool.

Ok now imagine if the hype is real for once and they actually go on a run no one see's coming? You'll wish you kept them if they came up just short.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Ok now imagine if the hype is real for once and they actually go on a run no one see's coming? You'll wish you kept them if they came up just short.

If the hype is for real then there's 7 more years where this one came from, with a better defenseman or 2 added. This is the NHL where even the best team only has maybe a 15% chance of winning the cup. No 1 year trumps the rest of them. 7 years of a better team easily makes you more likely to win the cup then that 1 year of keeping the UFA. And it's really not even close.

 

[Kamiccolo]

If the hype is for real then there's 7 more years where this one came from, with a better defenseman or 2 added. This is the NHL where even the best team only has maybe a 15% chance of winning the cup. No 1 year trumps the rest of them. 7 years of a better team easily makes you more likely to win the cup then that 1 year of keeping the UFA. And it's really not even close.

Or maybe you only get one real chance and don't win it. And also if you always sell UFA's you will always be in a cycle of spinning tires. You will never be good enough because you weaken your team every year and the prospects aren't good enough to replace their impact.

 

[Red Piller]

The difference is the Blues have never had a true star. Tare recently but even still he isn't really at that level. The blues were always the bubble team. Not bad enough to get good prospects, not good enough to ever really win a cup or even challenge for one.

Leafs on the other hand were really bad. Blues were making the playoffs, Leafs were drafting the depth your organization acquired while spinning their tires. Now the Blues are in the same spot, and the Leafs collected their depth and have the star power to go for it. Adding a bunch of bottom 6ers and 2nd line wingers years away do not help especially when they already have a good enough depth cast that guys like Kapenen can sit there and when he gets minutes becomes that impact type of player.

I just think they are in different spots. The Blues just want to stay a playoff team. The Leafs want to win one.

Yeah Gretzky, Hull amd Pronger were complete bums.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Yeah Gretzky, Hull amd Pronger were complete bums.

Obviously the discussion is over the past 7 years...

 

[Jmo89]

Gardiner seems like one of those players that will always be more valued by management than fans.

Unfortunately he won't hold alot of trade value because IMO he will always be an "even" player in that he makes plays that can directly result in both wins and losses.

On a second pair he's a valuable player, but the Leafs probably can't afford him at an UFA price.

 

[slg1963]

Gardiner needs a new contract and he is looking for 6m per yr ,so Gardiner and your 1st for Shattenkirk.

 

[57special]

Obviously the discussion is over the past 7 years...

Tarasenko and Pietrangelo qualify as stars, in my book.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Gardiner needs a new contract and he is looking for 6m per yr ,so Gardiner and your 1st for Shattenkirk.

Hasnt shattenkirk been a healthy scratch this year.... ya dont think the leafs would adding the first or even have interest in a PP specialist like Shattenkirk.

 

[DomBarr]

hey guys I know someone wont like this idea but I think Dubas should be shopping gardiner or at least finding out what his value is, don't want to see him walk away for nothing just like JR or Bozak, that's not good business so I say move him for the best possible deal, wont be able to sign him anyways so it time, use the imagination mr. Dubas….

The Leafs are playoff contenders...contenders don't sell, especially not their 2nd best dman unless they decide they aren't playoff contenders

 

[slg1963]

Hasnt shattenkirk been a healthy scratch this year.... ya dont think the leafs would adding the first or even have interest in a PP specialist like Shattenkirk.

Yes he was but now he is playing much better . He is a RD and Gardiner may walk for nothing , so a 1st for Shatts and him is reasonable

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yes he was but now he is playing much better . He is a RD and Gardiner may walk for nothing , so a 1st for Shatts and him is reasonable

Not from the leafs POV...

Wouldn't trade Gardiner straight up for Shattenkirk. Leafs dont need a PP specialist being paid 6.65 million a year with a modified NTC

 

[Kamiccolo]

Tarasenko and Pietrangelo qualify as stars, in my book.

Eh. Pie sure but defense don't really mean anything in the grand scheme of things IMO. They help control the flow of games but don't impact game to game like forwards do which is IMO why you see dynamic offensive teams do better in the post season than defensive teams.

Tarasenko is in the same realm as Kessel. Elite player but you will never win when he is your best forward.

 

[Ivan13]

I hope his career trajectory is the same as Larry Murphy's was when he left Toronto.

 

[ole ole]

The Leafs are playoff contenders...contenders don't sell, especially not their 2nd best dman unless they decide they aren't playoff contenders

If Gardiner is the Leafs 2nd best D-man they are not contenders.

 

[simon IC]

Can we just leave the Blues out of any conversation concerning Gardiner? Please?

 

[Babooch]

Good puck mover that makes mistakes like most D-men do. He would be a good addition to half the league.

 

[Hunter368]

2nd pairing D, average defensively but prone to complete brain farts at times......very good offensively, not phyiscal, UFA rental looking for 6-7 million on his next deal.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

2nd pairing D, average defensively but prone to complete brain farts at times......very good offensively, not phyiscal, UFA rental looking for 6-7 million on his next deal.

Looking for 6-7 mil as per who?

 

[Field of Dreams]

I cannot see Gardiner fitting within our cap structure unless Nylander is traded for someone on a team friendly contract like Pesce for example. He will likely command ~6m on the open market. It should be noted that with emergence of Dermott, it won't be as critical to keep Gardiner if Dermott follows his current trajectory.

Since a very specific set of circumstances have to be met for the leafs to offer a contract, and we have no real evidence whether Gardiner wishes to remain on this team, it's unlikely he remains a leaf.

Despite that, a team that is competing for the cup should not flip their expiring contracts. Why would a player buy in if management doesn't? If Gardiner is being traded, it would have to be a hockey trade.