Post-Game Talk: | Game # IV | Pens win vs Kings | Goals for Sullys 300th!

[Honour Over Glory]

The team played the game today.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Would you guys agree with Moneypuck that Jarry deserves to be 21st out of 60 goalies in goals saved above expected?
They have him at +1.0 there. The leader (Oettinger) is at 5.4.

He is .952 right now.

Also we're 23rd in goals for above expected. I don't get it. Today we scored 6 with 9 high danger chances. Kings had 15.

Who gives a shit about some rating.

 

[Peat]

Both.

Also @Peat regardless of what the numbers look like I think we need to value what Petry brings in terms of the breakout with Malkin and in terms of actually doing it intelligently versus my big dog Matheson.

Honestly, and I've been watching a bit casual so maybe I'm missing it, but I haven't really seen it. I've seen Petry do good breakout things, and I've seen Malkin's line do good breakouts, but I don't remember moments of meshing.

Petry does pass more than Matheson on the breakout tho. But the big difference between the two is off the puck in their own end.

Would you guys agree with Moneypuck that Jarry deserves to be 21st out of 60 goalies in goals saved above expected?
They have him at +1.0 there. The leader (Oettinger) is at 5.4.

He is .952 right now.

Also we're 23rd in goals for above expected. I don't get it. Today we scored 6 with 9 high danger chances. Kings had 15.

Break it down and you get 1.5 (12th) above at 5v5, and -0.9 (52nd) at PK. 5v5 feels fair. PK, I think if you look at those goals again, there's a lot of movement and public expected goals movements don't factor in movement, and he's probably lower than he should be.

And I don't think that Moneypuck have updated properly. They've got us at 9 5v5 goals in 4 games in 140 minutes. NST has us at 13, in 4 games in 180 minutes. 9 goals and 140 minutes is what NST gives us for 3 games. I think when they do we'll move. After 3 games, NST had us at -.25 goals under expected, now we're at 1.75 over.

Which also means Jarry's stats are probably misleading too.

 

[Gurglesons]

Honestly, and I've been watching a bit casual so maybe I'm missing it, but I haven't really seen it. I've seen Petry do good breakout things, and I've seen Malkin's line do good breakouts, but I don't remember moments of meshing.

Petry does pass more than Matheson on the breakout tho. But the big difference between the two is off the puck in their own end.



Break it down and you get 1.5 (12th) above at 5v5, and -0.9 (52nd) at PK. 5v5 feels fair. PK, I think if you look at those goals again, there's a lot of movement and public expected goals movements don't factor in movement, and he's probably lower than he should be.

And I don't think that Moneypuck have updated properly. They've got us at 9 5v5 goals in 4 games in 140 minutes. NST has us at 13, in 4 games in 180 minutes. 9 goals and 140 minutes is what NST gives us for 3 games. I think when they do we'll move. After 3 games, NST had us at -.25 goals under expected, now we're at 1.75 over.

Which also means Jarry's stats are probably misleading too.

I see Malkin doing far less of having to carry the puck all the way back every shift like he has the last 5 years since we lost Daley.

 

[Peat]

I see Malkin doing far less of having to carry the puck all the way back every shift like he has the last 5 years since we lost Daley.

I'll keep an eye out for it.

Although part of what I like about Geno with fast wingers is they give great outlets and I think that's maybe part of it too.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Who gives a shit about some rating.

Well if I look at a random team's underlying stats then I can understand their strengths and weaknesses. I can learn why they are where they are. I'm basically only watching the Pens, so I rely on these things to keep up.
However, if the stats aren't being tracked properly then that's gonna cause problems all over the place with narratives all year, from media, analysts and fans alike. There'll be a lot of false perceptions.
The same applies to individual players.

Break it down and you get 1.5 (12th) above at 5v5, and -0.9 (52nd) at PK. 5v5 feels fair. PK, I think if you look at those goals again, there's a lot of movement and public expected goals movements don't factor in movement, and he's probably lower than he should be.

And I don't think that Moneypuck have updated properly. They've got us at 9 5v5 goals in 4 games in 140 minutes. NST has us at 13, in 4 games in 180 minutes. 9 goals and 140 minutes is what NST gives us for 3 games. I think when they do we'll move. After 3 games, NST had us at -.25 goals under expected, now we're at 1.75 over.

Which also means Jarry's stats are probably misleading too.

Yeah, I probably just jumped the gun checking team stats during an update. Seems like they need more than a few hours post-game.
I'll check again later.

Jarry's only allowed 1 5v5 goal. So is 1.5 GSAx really fair? How many breakaways/odd-man rushes against? I guess we've defended fairly well but I'd probably boost that still.
I'd need to break down the SH goals against to decide how much of that is on Jarry, but yeah I expect that -0.9 to go up too.

The team stats don't seem right at all. There's no way our finishing is 23rd right now.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

3-0-1
All 4 games against backups or AHL callups
1-0 against playoff teams (who had their backup in their 2nd of b2b)

Vejmelka is Arizona's starter, going back to last year. Quick played 2 periods today too.
Ultimately I agree though. We haven't been stonewalled yet.

 

[Peat]

Yeah, I probably just jumped the gun checking team stats during an update. Seems like they need more than a few hours post-game.
I'll check again later.

Jarry's only allowed 1 5v5 goal. So is 1.5 GSAx really fair? How many breakaways/odd-man rushes against? I guess we've defended fairly well but I'd probably boost that still.
I'd need to break down the SH goals against to decide how much of that is on Jarry, but yeah I expect that -0.9 to go up too.

The team stats don't seem right at all. There's no way our finishing is 23rd right now.

Based on just the first two games, those being the two MoneyPuck are measuring for Jarry so far - I think that's fair. I think we ran Arizona and Tampa over and they really didn't have all that many great chances. NST has him at 2.54 goals expecting, so they're in rough agreement. NST thought LA was near as dangerous as both Tampa and Arizona combined, which sounds right.

And after three games, the idea we hadn't scored as much as we should have feels legit. We could have easily stuck more on those first three games at 5v5. Break Moneypuck down... they had L4 at 0.6 under, L2 a whole goal under what they should have scored, and L3 at 0.2 over and L1 at 0.4 over. These seem reasonable. L2 were definitely not converting on their chances as they could (still aren't really turning it on imo) and no goal for L4 was a bit harsh. Maybe I don't fully agree with Moneypuck, but I think they were close enough.

Ultimately stats from our first 3 games mostly reflect two of the most utterly dominant hockey games I've seen in Arizona and Tampa. It's pretty difficult for goaltending/finishing to look outstanding when a team dominates chances that much.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Based on just the first two games, those being the two MoneyPuck are measuring for Jarry so far - I think that's fair. I think we ran Arizona and Tampa over and they really didn't have all that many great chances. NST has him at 2.54 goals expecting, so they're in rough agreement. NST thought LA was near as dangerous as both Tampa and Arizona combined, which sounds right.

And after three games, the idea we hadn't scored as much as we should have feels legit. We could have easily stuck more on those first three games at 5v5. Break Moneypuck down... they had L4 at 0.6 under, L2 a whole goal under what they should have scored, and L3 at 0.2 over and L1 at 0.4 over. These seem reasonable. L2 were definitely not converting on their chances as they could (still aren't really turning it on imo) and no goal for L4 was a bit harsh. Maybe I don't fully agree with Moneypuck, but I think they were close enough.

I'm not sure I agree that an average team should be expected to score more than our current 5 goals per game with our amount of chances. That's #1 in the NHL. We've had some pretty clinical finishing on several we did score. Some examples...

- Rakell's goal today - That's not an expected goal for me because of the acute angle and awkwardness of it all, shooting it in reverse while lunging for the puck
- Poehling's goal is with the goalie totally set at the top of his crease in good position. Wouldn't expect that to go in either. It only did because of a fly-by screen by a King, throwing Quick off
- Zucker and Malkin have had long range slapshot goals go in off posts. Who was expecting goals there, watching those games?
- Carter squeaked one in for his first of the year by sliding it along the ice across Eliott, with pinpoint precision off the far post. I thought Elliott had him.
- Rutta's goal was soft as butter

The list goes on.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Penguins have only allowed 2 even strength goals so far.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Well if I look at a random team's underlying stats then I can understand their strengths and weaknesses. I can learn why they are where they are. I'm basically only watching the Pens, so I rely on these things to keep up.
However, if the stats aren't being tracked properly then that's gonna cause problems all over the place with narratives all year, from media, analysts and fans alike. There'll be a lot of false perceptions.
The same applies to individual players.

Yeah, I probably just jumped the gun checking team stats during an update. Seems like they need more than a few hours post-game.
I'll check again later.

Jarry's only allowed 1 5v5 goal. So is 1.5 GSAx really fair? How many breakaways/odd-man rushes against? I guess we've defended fairly well but I'd probably boost that still.
I'd need to break down the SH goals against to decide how much of that is on Jarry, but yeah I expect that -0.9 to go up too.

The team stats don't seem right at all. There's no way our finishing is 23rd right now.

I didn't give a shit.

 

[HandshakeLine]

So with coincidental minors.. how do they determine if it's 4 on 4 or 5 on 5? Also, can you coincidental minors down to 3 on 3?

I believe they changed the rules In the firewagon era so that now you can’t go below coincidental 4 on 4. You’ll still be assessed the penalty but you won’t see the teams drop to 3 on 3 UNLESS they take non coincidental minors- e.g. Team A high sticks a player. Then Team B gets a holding call. I do remember that some youth and junior leagues call it differently than the NHL/AHL, but it’s been a while since I dove into the rule book.

I’m not a ref though, so take this all with a ginormous grain of salt.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Anyway, it's looking like we're going to have a new tradition moving forward.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Hell yeah, Sid. Baking rules.

 

[Tacitus Kilgore]

Anyway, it's looking like we're going to have a new tradition moving forward.

Ovechkin could/would never. This why Sid's the Goat of his generation. His banana bread stats are untouchable

 

[HandshakeLine]

Ovechkin orders from Panera and says it’s homemade.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

I don't get minimizing the win by saying that the Kings were playing their backup when they put 3 up on Quick in 2 periods anyway while the Kings only had 1 garbage time goal the entire game.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Great game by the entire team. Jarry played like a bonafide starting goalie on a contending team, can’t ask for more really.

It’s nice to see the Penguins holding first place in the division.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I am an OG Sullivan critic but if he can keep the team firing on all cylinders like this, then I’ll gladly and publicly eat crow.

 

[KareemTrustfund]

I think Kapanen deserves some love. Him and Carter have shown some great chemistry over four games.

 

[pistolpete11]

I think Kapanen deserves some love. Him and Carter have shown some great chemistry over four games.

Those were some nice passes to Carter for his goal and Heinen's drawn penalty.

 

[jmelm]

- to Letang for shooting the puck at Guentzel's ear.

- to POJ for taking the penalty that cost Jarry the shutout.

The Pens had no answer for what the Kings brought in the first period, and the Kings showed the blueprint -- for any teams who have the personnel to execute that kind of speed & game plan against the Penguins -- for how to beat them. The Pens better find an answer for that internally.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

He actually had a year in Anaheim where he was looking like a rocket Richard winner for the first few months.

Yeah I knew who he was in an era where I didn’t know how to illegally stream and relied on NHL Network… sayin something. You had to be a player for that

It's really a night and day difference when you have a guy like Petry on your 2nd pair. I think the 2nd line is mostly playing great because of Malkin and Zucker finally being healthy, but I don't think you can dismiss the impact Petry is having from playing behind those guys. A 1-2 punch of Letang and Petry on the back end is a downright deadly duo offensively.

I've said this multiple times, but I think Petry is the best non-Letang defenseman the Penguins have had since Gonchar if Petry plays like he should.

So far we’ve gone how he goes it seems. I get what MTL fans said. Brutal vs the Habs, amazing vs the Kings.

If he can turn it on and channel his best for the playoffs- f*** yeah

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Also @Peat on Rakell

He has both a top 15 finish and a top 20 finish in goals and a year where he was a top 40 raw point scorer league (37th) wide.

Last year the 37th scorer was DeBrincat for context.