Friedman 31 Thoughts (Jets)

KingBogo

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He’s been very poor at C. He could be a top 6 winger eventually but there’s a lot of guys there.

Like I said I’m a fan of him but asset wise the Jets are deep on the wings and thin down the middle and the back end.
I wouldn't say very poor, and I'd give him some time to learn the role. Yes maybe circumstances land us another top 6 center but I think they give Rosie some opportunity to learn the role over the next year or 2.
 

voyageur

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There was talk of the Jets scouting Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, and then Bill Guerin was at a Jets game or two. Friedman seems to be throwing teams at the wall in that part, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets tried adding more depth. I think the obvious places to add would be C and LD, I wonder who the Jets were scouting.



Do any Jets skip if they're invited?


I think the Pens would be shopping Maata, to make Cap space. Not sure if the Jets would want his Cap hit on the bold for next year though, given the value we have had from Kulikov.

The other one that I could see is Brassard. He would solidify the team up the middle, probably at the expense of a 2nd Rd pick. Word is that the Pens are trying to acquire Jordan Staal, to bolster the defensive side of their centre position, so that would give them the space. As a rental I don't mind Brassard, given his playoff experience.
 

None

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Feb 22, 2012
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31 Thoughts: Buyers, sellers emerging ahead of NHL Trade Deadline - Sportsnet.ca

Nothing particularly interesting, but here's the Jets related mentions:

1. Big week for the Senators. As the Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reported, GM Pierre Dorion went to California to visit with Pat Brisson, agent for Matt Duchene. Meanwhile, the full-court press is on to re-sign Mark Stone. (Word is Dorion met with Newport, Stone’s agency, on Monday.) Last summer, Ottawa offered Erik Karlsson $88 million, but structure was never discussed. The question will be bonuses. Karlsson got $1 million in the first season of his now-expiring seven-year contract, but nothing else. Bobby Ryan gets $2 million in each of his seven seasons. Some teams fight hard against bonuses (Winnipeg is one), but if negotiations get close enough that extensions are possible, flexibility on this issue could be very important.

Later in the article he mentions that one of the ideas to curb rising player escrow is to limit or eliminate bonuses. It's one of those things that small market teams probably struggle to compete with against the larger markets. The offer sheet Shea Weber signed from Philly was viewed as a poison pill for Nashville because their owner didn't have the liquidity to cover the bonus structure out of pocket.

5. Penguins’ GM Jim Rutherford sent his message through local reporters: he’s ready to start dealing. He’s looking for a better fit down the middle behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Derick Brassard’s going to get a new home. Remember, Winnipeg liked him last year, but he resisted. If the Jets want to try again, that won’t be a problem. Columbus also makes sense, possibly San Jose.
Not sure what's meant by the bolded, I guess the Jets were on his 8 team no trade list? Goes against the reports at the time.

There's also a small mention in #19 for Maurice, related to his head/eye injury I assume.

And one that's somewhat of interest but doesn't directly mention the Jets:
12. A number of contenders were liking how many teams were giving up on the season, hoping it meant a buyers’ market as some clubs worried they wouldn’t be able to deal unwanted assets. If you’ve got a true difference-maker, that’s one thing, but how many of those are truly available?

The crazy race for the second wild card in the Western Conference has altered this somewhat, as a few of those teams might sit a little longer to see if they gain momentum.

One of those who might choose to wait is St. Louis. Missing the playoffs in 2017–18 was very hard on their ticket renewals, and this was supposed to be a rebound season. Instead, it’s been a nightmare. That said, they’ve crept within four points of Minnesota currently in the final playoff position.

I guess that means that St Louis might not be willing to deal out their expiring contracts unless they're completely out of it come the trade deadline. Last season they were on the fringe and Doug Armstrong dealt Stastny and they went on a small tear but came short, losing out the last playoff spot to the Avs in their very last game. I wonder how much risk Armstrong is willing to take, there isn't a name on that team that's escaped trade rumours.

Hopefully the desperate GMs don't drive the prices too high for rentals if the Jets are actually pursuing any. It's not a stretch to see Chiarelli doing something stupid and ruining the rental market :laugh:
 

Whileee

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31 Thoughts: Buyers, sellers emerging ahead of NHL Trade Deadline - Sportsnet.ca

Nothing particularly interesting, but here's the Jets related mentions:



Later in the article he mentions that one of the ideas to curb rising player escrow is to limit or eliminate bonuses. It's one of those things that small market teams probably struggle to compete with against the larger markets. The offer sheet Shea Weber signed from Philly was viewed as a poison pill for Nashville because their owner didn't have the liquidity to cover the bonus structure out of pocket.


Not sure what's meant by the bolded, I guess the Jets were on his 8 team no trade list? Goes against the reports at the time.

There's also a small mention in #19 for Maurice, related to his head/eye injury I assume.

And one that's somewhat of interest but doesn't directly mention the Jets:


I guess that means that St Louis might not be willing to deal out their expiring contracts unless they're completely out of it come the trade deadline. Last season they were on the fringe and Doug Armstrong dealt Stastny and they went on a small tear but came short, losing out the last playoff spot to the Avs in their very last game. I wonder how much risk Armstrong is willing to take, there isn't a name on that team that's escaped trade rumours.

Hopefully the desperate GMs don't drive the prices too high for rentals if the Jets are actually pursuing any. It's not a stretch to see Chiarelli doing something stupid and ruining the rental market :laugh:
Interesting.

I think it will be a buyers' market for forwards because there are a lot of pending UFA forwards, and many of them are on teams that have little hope for the playoffs...

Stone
Duchene
Dzingel
Ferland
Hayes
Zuccarello
Brassard
Nyquist
Simmonds
Silfverberg

You might also add some from playoff teams that don't see themselves as true contenders. Of course, not all playoff teams will be in a "buying" mode, so the competition will be dampened.
 

None

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Feb 22, 2012
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Stone
Duchene
Dzingel
Ferland
Hayes
Zuccarello
Brassard
Nyquist
Simmonds
Silfverberg

You might also add some from playoff teams that don't see themselves as true contenders. Of course, not all playoff teams will be in a "buying" mode, so the competition will be dampened.

Stone and Duchene are going to come down to how likely it looks that they'll sign. Given the Sens current direction I could definitely see both leaving. The Stone 1 year deal seemed seemed pretty awkward, and just a month prior they did that weird public announcement that they were approved for $135 million in financing.

The Ducks are apparently trying to re-sign Silfverberg but Friedman mentioned this:

6. Anaheim GM Bob Murray indicated he wants to re-sign pending UFA Jakob Silfverberg. Looking at the Ducks’ contract situation for next year, they have (by my count) more than $72 million in cap space already used. The Andrew Cogliano/Drew Shore trade saves them some cash, but the Ducks are very close to a “tagging” issue. (Basically, “tagging” is a rule that doesn’t let a team spend more money in a future season than this year’s cap.) Assuming his raise is to less than $7 million, Anaheim looks OK. But it doesn’t leave them a ton of flexibility.

The Ducks are probably a team that fits into that bubble team that doesn't see themselves as a contender group. The Ducks and Hurricanes both look like teams on the bubble that are looking to sell because they don't see themselves as contenders. Dallas, St. Louis, and Edmonton might be the only teams on the bubble that are desperate, but I don't see St. Louis making a trade to add.

I wonder what Minnesota will do with Staal, didn't they try shopping Zucker and Coyle around at the beginning of the season? They're a team that could go either way as buyers or sellers depending on where they are in the standings at the deadline.
Didn't Staal make a point about wanting to win the cup while playing a larger role than he did in 2006?

If the Jets are looking at rentals the players I'd be looking at are B. Schenn, E. Staal, Coyle, and then a cheap LD like Kiselvich whose name came out today as someone Florida is looking to move. I think the Jets could get away without adding defensive depth, but they'd need to hope everyone is healthy enough come playoff time.
 
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31 Thoughts: What’s next for Benn, Seguin and the Dallas Stars?



There was talk of the Jets scouting Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, and then Bill Guerin was at a Jets game or two. Friedman seems to be throwing teams at the wall in that part, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets tried adding more depth. I think the obvious places to add would be C and LD, I wonder who the Jets were scouting.



Do any Jets skip if they're invited?

Assumedly Brassard. He's almost certainly getting dealt by Pitt and the Jets wanted him last year.
 

JetsFan815

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Not sure what's meant by the bolded, I guess the Jets were on his 8 team no trade list? Goes against the reports at the time.

There's also a small mention in #19 for Maurice, related to his head/eye injury I assume.

And one that's somewhat of interest but doesn't directly mention the Jets:

I think Friedman is mistaken here. Reliable sources reported that Brassard was willing to come to Winnipeg but Ottawa just liked the Penguins offer better.

That said, I am not sure I see a fit this season. He is in his contract year and has struggled a lot, either he is still playing with the after effects of his injury or has fallen off the cliff, he is not the guy to put with Laine. His shot stats this season are as bad if not worse than Laine.

The only role/price the Jets should consider acquiring him is for the role of a 4th line Center role, even then I would think those cap dollars could be better utilized. I really hope the Jets don't offer much for him.
 
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None

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I think Friedman is mistaken here. Reliable sources reported that Brassard was willing to come to Winnipeg but Ottawa just liked the Penguins offer better.

That said, I am not sure I see a fit this season. He is in his contract year and has struggled a lot, either he is still playing with the after effects of his injury or has fallen off the cliff, he is not the guy to put with Laine. His shot stats this season are as bad if not worse than Laine.

The only role/price the Jets should consider acquiring him is for the role of a 4th line Center role, even then I would think those cap dollars could be better utilized. I really hope the Jets don't offer much for him.

I might be misinterpreting Friedman, but that's how I understood it last year as well. It sounded as if the Jets interest may have been dialed back a bit once Stastny became available as well. And at the time I think Chevy and Armstrong both said that St Louis was targeting Foley in particular as an add-in on that deal.

From what I've heard and read regarding Brassard is that he doesn't fit in a 3rd line role with the Penguins. They want a more reliable center taking defensive zone draws because Crosby and Malkin are going to eat up all of the offensive draws. It sounds like he needs defensive sheltering, so he might not be the best fit in taking on a Stastny-like role for the Jets because the Jets wings lack defensive maturity. I think the Penguins want a roster player to replace him in the mould of Lowry, but that's not gonna to happen from the Jets POV.
It sounds like they want a Jordan Staal :laugh:

I personally don't want Brassard, I think there's better fitting C's potentially available.
 

Mud Turtle

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I'm sorry i don't want us trading for anyone . If we have to keep giving up our first , plus prospects where the hell are we going to get these ELC's to dollar cost all these fat cats in a few years .

Agree. We need a steady reliable stream of young guys on elc’s and we’re starting to thin out there.
In 5, 6, 7 years I still want a team to cheer for that has a chance, not a bottom dweller. Enough years of that. We’re going to have to pay our good players a lot and we can’t keep them all if we don’t have some cheap young talent coming up.
 
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voyageur

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Agree. We need a steady reliable stream of young guys on elc’s and we’re starting to thin out there.
In 5, 6, 7 years I still want a team to cheer for that has a chance, not a bottom dweller. Enough years of that. We’re going to have to pay our good players a lot and we can’t keep them all if we don’t have some cheap young talent coming up.

A player we draft this year is going to be a 2021 player at best.

So for the next few seasons we have to fit Appleton, KVes, Lemieux and Suess in.

We already will have Scheif, Wheeler, Ehlers, Laine, Little, Connor, Roslovic and Lowry locked up until that time. And Perreault. We probably lose Tanev and Copp in consecutive years. So we replace smaller pieces with in house solutions.

On d we have Morrissey, Buff, Niku, Poolman , Samberg going forward. Add a piece or two for Trouba. One more year of Kulikov. And potentially Stanley as a replacement. Nogier for depth.

There is not a lot of room for growth with this core in place.

I think Skylar Mc Kenzie is going to play in the NHL. Spacek, Harkins are unlikely too, at least for the Jets.

Gustafsson, Virtanen could make the jump next year to bolster our depth on the Moose.

Then you have to develop Gawanke, Chisholm, Kovacevic. Luke Green I don't think will be an option.

What are we sacrificing if we can trade a pick, who is 2 years away from anything if we are trying to win in the next 2 1/2 years? It's not like we don't have talent to bring in more prospects down the road, if the Cap forces our hand.
 
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Maukkis

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A player we draft this year is going to be a 2021 player at best.

So for the next few seasons we have to fit Appleton, KVes, Lemieux and Suess in.

We already will have Scheif, Wheeler, Ehlers, Laine, Little, Connor, Roslovic and Lowry locked up until that time. And Perreault. We probably lose Tanev and Copp in consecutive years. So we replace smaller pieces with in house solutions.

On d we have Morrissey, Buff, Niku, Poolman , Samberg going forward. Add a piece or two for Trouba. One more year of Kulikov. And potentially Stanley as a replacement. Nogier for depth.

There is not a lot of room for growth with this core in place.

I think Skylar Mc Kenzie is going to play in the NHL. Spacek, Harkins are unlikely too, at least for the Jets.

Gustafsson, Virtanen could make the jump next year to bolster our depth on the Moose.

Then you have to develop Gawanke, Chisholm, Kovacevic. Luke Green I don't think will be an option.

What are we sacrificing if we can trade a pick, who is 2 years away from anything if we are trying to win in the next 2 1/2 years? It's not like we don't have talent to bring in more prospects down the road, if the Cap forces our hand.
Not everyone of the guys we have are proven or good, and not all of our prospects will make it anyway. Besides, you always want to have as many options as possible.

Going for an expensive rental again would be irresponsible, given the holes opening up in a couple of years.
 

voyageur

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Not everyone of the guys we have are proven or good, and not all of our prospects will make it anyway. Besides, you always want to have as many options as possible.

Going for an expensive rental again would be irresponsible, given the holes opening up in a couple of years.

You try to tell Buff and Wheeler that the 5 year plan. Their time is now. This is Trouba's last year. Myers too. We have to sign two key forwards. Our backup goalie. Re-sign Morrissey the year after.

Go for it I say. Be the best you can be. We are 2 injuries away from Petan and Dano being regulars. A 3rd from the unknown. There will be injuries, playoffs are a grind. Sacrifice a 1st for the right player. Or 2nd and a prospect if you have the right fit.

Trouba is likely going to get you a 1st, higher than your draft position at the table. Perreault could get a 2nd. Brossoit could get a 2nd. But you trade them when you confidently have or can find a cheaper replacement.

We have the assets.

Sitting on your laurels is unacceptable. One player could make the difference. Other than Jiri Tlusty, who was the softest player in Jets history, and hardly an upgrade on Eric O'Dell, Chevy and Zinger have been good at finding the right player to fill a hole, in their growth as a dynamic duo of management.
 
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Maukkis

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You try to tell Buff and Wheeler that the 5 year plan. Their time is now. This is Trouba's last year. Myers too. We have to sign two key forwards. Our backup goalie. Re-sign Morrissey the year after.

Go for it I say. Be the best you can be. We are 2 injuries away from Petan and Dano being regulars. A 3rd from the unknown. There will be injuries, playoffs are a grind. Sacrifice a 1st for the right player. Or 2nd and a prospect if you have the right fit.

Trouba is likely going to get you a 1st, higher than your draft position at the table. Perreault could get a 2nd. Brossoit could get a 2nd. But you trade them when you confidently have or can find a cheaper replacement.

We have the assets.

Sitting on your laurels is unacceptable. One player could make the difference. Other than Jiri Tlusty, who was the softest player in Jets history, and hardly an upgrade on Eric O'Dell, Chevy and Zinger have been good at finding the right player to fill a hole, in their growth as a dynamic duo of management.
What if I told you that giving up a 1st hardly makes us significantly likely to win? No NHL player that does not classify as a downright superstar gives us any significant increase in odds. This game is heavily muddied by randomness, which is as important as anything. You saw it against Vegas.

Moneypuck gives us a 3% chance to win the Cup. Tampa, the current 'favourite', is an 8:1 underdog in the Cup race. You can be a favourite without having a respectable chance to go all the way.

This is not our year to go for anything. We lack three good defensemen, which we cannot buy all at once. Even if we get them, a burst of PDO is literally all it takes to knock us out.

I'd rather prolong our window by keeping our good futures and drafting well to keep the overload of talent.
 

KingBogo

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I'm sorry i don't want us trading for anyone . If we have to keep giving up our first , plus prospects where the hell are we going to get these ELC's to dollar cost all these fat cats in a few years .
I think Chevy makes a move or 2, but for players below the cost of a 1st round pick. Despite the criticism from some Little has been playing well and I'm hopeful by season's end Niku has established himself enough that the discussion is between him and Chiarot for the #6 spot and Morrow has been pushed down to #8. IMO this has lessened the need for an expensive #2 C or top 4 defenseman which would require the high price of a 1st and good prospect. IMO where Chevy will be looking for help is for a veteran player or 2 to shore up the 4th line. Last year in the playoffs we had Little on the 4th, with some combination of Armia, Matty P or Roslovic with him. Our current 4th line is a big step down from that and we will need to get more minutes from the 4th in the playoffs.
 

None

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31 Thoughts: What’s next for Oilers after Chiarelli firing

Not from the numbered points but in the intro regarding the Oilers. Interesting read, here's a part that references the Jets:
Potential first-time GM options include Bill Guerin, Mark Hunter and Kelly McCrimmon. Sources indicate all have been discussed internally, and not just in the last few days. Hunter (a serious candidate) could be an immediate hire if that’s what the Oilers wanted to do. I don’t know if Winnipeg assistant GM Craig Heisinger desires the job, but if I’m Nicholson, I’m asking. The Jets, in an intense market, held off pressure to deviate from process and are reaping the benefits. The Oilers should be asking how Winnipeg management sold its vision and stayed on path despite criticism for doing so.

Zinger doesn't face the media much as a member of the Jets staff, but he's been here for so long working with Chipman that it's hard to see him leaving. Maybe the Jets throw the Oilers a bone if asked for help arranging their front office since the Oilers opened their books to help the Jets determine market viability, but I don't see Chevy or Zinger leaving for that kind of thing.

8. How to interpret Toronto GM Kyle Dubas’s proclamation that the Maple Leafs are having good dialogue with Auston Matthews? My take is this: both team and agent Judd Moldaver see an eight-year deal as extremely unlikely. The salary would be too high for the team, which wants to keep the best possible team around him and knows Mitch Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, is waiting to see Matthews’s cap number. A four-year contract walks him right to unrestricted free agency, so that’s not happening. We’re looking at a five- or six-year contract. That puts the number under Connor McDavid’s $12.5 million, but exactly where is what’s still to be decided. Dubas’s proclamation that they’d like to know before the deadline means February will be an important month in the process.

Most interesting part is that they may not be going for max term intentionally. I think there's quite a bit of risk on the player not getting max term if they're good enough to warrant it. Then again if he has a healthy 5-6 seasons and gets to UFA at 26-27 he could probably get max term on his 3rd contract taking him to 34-35 and pick his team or drive his price way up.
Of course there's also a ton of risk for the team for the same reasons, if they don't win in those 5-6 seasons with Matthews will they be able to build a competitive roster around Matthews signed as a UFA for 14+ AAV?
It reads like Friedman is probably trying to read between the lines and speculating based on small bits of public soundbites from Dubas. It's entirely possible that it's completely inaccurate; I think Friedman also speculated that McDavid would sign for less than max term as well.

Interesting nonetheless, I wonder if Jets fans would be open to Laine signing a 5-6 year deal? I think it should be obvious even to his most diehard fans that he isn't driving his own offense at this point in his career. He's obviously still extremely valuable, but there's considerable risk that can't be ignored.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
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31 Thoughts: What’s next for Oilers after Chiarelli firing

Not from the numbered points but in the intro regarding the Oilers. Interesting read, here's a part that references the Jets:


Zinger doesn't face the media much as a member of the Jets staff, but he's been here for so long working with Chipman that it's hard to see him leaving. Maybe the Jets throw the Oilers a bone if asked for help arranging their front office since the Oilers opened their books to help the Jets determine market viability, but I don't see Chevy or Zinger leaving for that kind of thing.



Most interesting part is that they may not be going for max term intentionally. I think there's quite a bit of risk on the player not getting max term if they're good enough to warrant it. Then again if he has a healthy 5-6 seasons and gets to UFA at 26-27 he could probably get max term on his 3rd contract taking him to 34-35 and pick his team or drive his price way up.
Of course there's also a ton of risk for the team for the same reasons, if they don't win in those 5-6 seasons with Matthews will they be able to build a competitive roster around Matthews signed as a UFA for 14+ AAV?
It reads like Friedman is probably trying to read between the lines and speculating based on small bits of public soundbites from Dubas. It's entirely possible that it's completely inaccurate; I think Friedman also speculated that McDavid would sign for less than max term as well.

Interesting nonetheless, I wonder if Jets fans would be open to Laine signing a 5-6 year deal? I think it should be obvious even to his most diehard fans that he isn't driving his own offense at this point in his career. He's obviously still extremely valuable, but there's considerable risk that can't be ignored.
I predict something like 6 x 11M for Matthews.
 

raideralex99

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Going in for one year or 2 years usually ends up with a lottery pick in the 3rd year. I would rather have 5 or 6 cracks at winning the SC than 1 or 2 years. Looks at the Capitals ... they had greats teams winning Presidents Trophy only to be out in the first or second round every year. They won the SC with one of their weaker teams.
The Jets have a good enough team to win the SC but they can also be out in the first round by running into a hot goalie or injuries ... nobody says its easy but going all in is a receipt for disaster.
 

None

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I predict something like 6 x 11M for Matthews.

I'm thinking it's going to be 10.34*6 after the rumours about Matthews wanting #34 in his AAV during the offseason. 6 years feels like the sweet spot to me for both sides, 2 UFA years for the team and less risk for Matthews.

I think 5 years is something the agent might push for, but I think it has to fall below 10AAV for that to happen from the Leafs side.

I wonder if Matthews ends up needing shoulder surgery at any point during his second contract, the hit from Trouba that put him out for 14 games seemed like pretty routine contact.
 

Flair Hay

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What if I told you that giving up a 1st hardly makes us significantly likely to win? No NHL player that does not classify as a downright superstar gives us any significant increase in odds. This game is heavily muddied by randomness, which is as important as anything. You saw it against Vegas.

Moneypuck gives us a 3% chance to win the Cup. Tampa, the current 'favourite', is an 8:1 underdog in the Cup race. You can be a favourite without having a respectable chance to go all the way.

This is not our year to go for anything. We lack three good defensemen, which we cannot buy all at once. Even if we get them, a burst of PDO is literally all it takes to knock us out.

I'd rather prolong our window by keeping our good futures and drafting well to keep the overload of talent.

What is this... lack 3 good defensemen?? The Hawks rode 4 guys to a title one year. Heck, we made conference finals with Enstrom who was not good at all last playoffs

How many teams have a better 3rd pair than Kulikov and Myers?

What if that draft pick is going to a guy like Muzzin? That would go a long way to getting back to being a very good defensive team.

Why be scared of ruining what could be in 5 years when we have a real chance now? If the prices are too ridiculous I get sitting out. But thinking this isnt a year we are a top contender? Huh?
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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I predict something like 6 x 11M for Matthews.

I could see that. I think 3, 4and 5 years are all too close to UFA to be likely, so it is between 2 and 6,7 or 8. 7 or 8 might be too much for the Leafs cap, leaving just 2 and 6. 2 will lead to 13 or more in only 2 years time. So that leaves 6 as the term.
 

Evil Little

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What is this... lack 3 good defensemen?? The Hawks rode 4 guys to a title one year. Heck, we made conference finals with Enstrom who was not good at all last playoffs

How many teams have a better 3rd pair than Kulikov and Myers?

What if that draft pick is going to a guy like Muzzin? That would go a long way to getting back to being a very good defensive team.

Why be scared of ruining what could be in 5 years when we have a real chance now? If the prices are too ridiculous I get sitting out. But thinking this isnt a year we are a top contender? Huh?

I'm not Maukkis, but I think the point is that even top contenders don't have a particularly good chance any given year. Your best bet at a championship is to make sure to extend your window for as long as possible.

I'd say that could coincide with most of the rest of Scheifele's career, so make sure you're still adding cost-controlled players the whole time.
 
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