Friedman 31 Thoughts (Jets)

[surixon]

Don't forget that for compensation purposes the total contract is divided by a max of 5 years. So 7x6 = 42 / 5 = 8.4 - compensation is 2x1st + 2nd + 3rd.
Pretty sure Chevy matches that and higher. An offer of 7x7,248,787 or higher triggers 4 1sts. I take the 4 1sts. $1 less than that and I match.

Edit: There is no guarantee that some team doesn't offer him less term - but if they want to ensure that Trouba signs it they probably need to offer both $$$ and term.

I suppose that if Trouba really wanted out he could find a taker at something like 3-5 years x 8.2 and hope Chevy doesn't match.

I don't see top end players being poached anymore with offer sheets. As you pointed out the compensation is just too high for a slightly above market value offer. Given the importance of ELC surrendering 4 firsts is not something any team really can do and hope to remain competitive in this environment.

Where I see the potential for offer sheets being successful is on the mid range player. A guy like Armia or Lowry would be targets. A 4 × 4 offer to Lowry likely takes him out of our price range but the team acquiring him is only paying a 2nd round pick if not matched.

 

[scarbrow21]

Don't forget that for compensation purposes the total contract is divided by a max of 5 years. So 7x6 = 42 / 5 = 8.4 - compensation is 2x1st + 2nd + 3rd.
Pretty sure Chevy matches that and higher. An offer of 7x7,248,787 or higher triggers 4 1sts. I take the 4 1sts. $1 less than that and I match.

Edit: There is no guarantee that some team doesn't offer him less term - but if they want to ensure that Trouba signs it they probably need to offer both $$$ and term.

I suppose that if Trouba really wanted out he could find a taker at something like 3-5 years x 8.2 and hope Chevy doesn't match.

Trouba being offersheeted 8Mx 5 years would be very hard/hurtful for the Jets to match and the return of a 1st+2nd+3rd wouldn't be enough compensation especially if it's a late 1st. Vegas could hit WPG HARD with that deal and absolutely be fine with paying Trouba that money! They also have all three of their picks in 2019 which makes it feasible.

WPG signs it out of spite I think though

 

[surixon]

Trouba being offersheeted 8Mx 5 years would be very hard/hurtful for the Jets to match and the return of a 1st+2nd+3rd wouldn't be enough compensation especially if it's a late 1st. Vegas could hit WPG HARD with that deal and absolutely be fine with paying Trouba that money! They also have all three of their picks in 2019 which makes it feasible.

WPG signs it out of spite I think though

I feel Vegas will be expending their efforts towards bring in franchise talents. They will likely once again try to trade for Karlsson and likely be looking at a C like Tavaras over trying to poach a player like Trouba.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

Trouba being offersheeted 8Mx 5 years would be very hard/hurtful for the Jets to match and the return of a 1st+2nd+3rd wouldn't be enough compensation especially if it's a late 1st. Vegas could hit WPG HARD with that deal and absolutely be fine with paying Trouba that money! They also have all three of their picks in 2019 which makes it feasible.

WPG signs it out of spite I think though

Heck, if Trouba really wanted to join the enemy than good riddance, I’d rather have the picks in return and we’d still have Myers.

 

[Whileee]

I feel Vegas will be expending their efforts towards bring in franchise talents. They will likely once again try to trade for Karlsson and likely be looking at a C like Tavaras over trying to poach a player like Trouba.

Karlsson would cost them a lot more than Trouba's offer sheet compensation and then a much bigger cap hit.

They will have a lot of competition for Tavares.

If they could get Trouba for their 1st, 2nd and 3rd it's a no-brainer for them.

 

[jamiebez]

I don't see top end players being poached anymore with offer sheets. As you pointed out the compensation is just too high for a slightly above market value offer. Given the importance of ELC surrendering 4 firsts is not something any team really can do and hope to remain competitive in this environment.

Where I see the potential for offer sheets being successful is on the mid range player. A guy like Armia or Lowry would be targets. A 4 × 4 offer to Lowry likely takes him out of our price range but the team acquiring him is only paying a 2nd round pick if not matched.

Given GM's historical reluctance to offer sheets, I think it's got to be just the right player in just the right situation to extend an offer sheet. I don't want to lose Lowry (as one example) but if someone signs him to a 4x4 deal, that's WAY above what he's worth and I don't think anyone would expect Chevy to match. It would stink, but I'd rather keep that money for Laine, Connor, etc.

With the Jets cap crunch this year and next, Trouba's age, and the holdout 2 years ago, I feel like he's a guy other GMs could target and actually get at a reasonable salary number. 5x7 is reasonable if he's your #1D.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The danger is something like 7.5-8m x 5 years. Trouba probably likes that because he's still in his prime when he hits UFA.

That's what I was thinking but I think they need to go a little higher to ensure Chevy won't match. He sees more cost and higher compensation so he might pass. 7.5-8x5 he matches. Some other GM has screwed him/us over for no direct gain for themselves. At the same time he has added to salary inflation for everyone else - himself included.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't see top end players being poached anymore with offer sheets. As you pointed out the compensation is just too high for a slightly above market value offer. Given the importance of ELC surrendering 4 firsts is not something any team really can do and hope to remain competitive in this environment.

Where I see the potential for offer sheets being successful is on the mid range player. A guy like Armia or Lowry would be targets. A 4 × 4 offer to Lowry likely takes him out of our price range but the team acquiring him is only paying a 2nd round pick if not matched.

Well, they pay the 2nd and they pay Lowry 4 mil per, so .......

But yes, that is a good point. Some teams with cap and money might find that pretty attractive.

 

[Whileee]

Well, they pay the 2nd and they pay Lowry 4 mil per, so .......

But yes, that is a good point. Some teams with cap and money might find that pretty attractive.

I think Lowry is considered more core by the Jets management than many fans realize. Chevy would be very reluctant to let him go, especially if the compensation is only a 2nd.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think Lowry is considered more core by the Jets management than many fans realize. Chevy would be very reluctant to let him go, especially if the compensation is only a 2nd.

Yes, but then we have to pay that contract.

 

[Whileee]

Yes, but then we have to pay that contract.

Or sign him up before others take a shot at him.

I think the notion that teams won't use offer sheets is perhaps not true anymore. Maybe it's the expansion draft, or parity, but I think the days of GMs acting nice are waning. I think we're going to see more cutthroat action, including offer sheets against vulnerable teams.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Or sign him up before others take a shot at him.

I think the notion that teams won't use offer sheets is perhaps not true anymore. Maybe it's the expansion draft, or parity, but I think the days of GMs acting nice are waning. I think we're going to see more cutthroat action, including offer sheets against vulnerable teams.

I don't think the offer sheet was ever gone - but it will continue to be used sparingly. I don't think GM's like to get them signed and then be matched. And I'm sure they don't like losing four 1st rd picks.

 

[KingBogo]

Trouba being offersheeted 8Mx 5 years would be very hard/hurtful for the Jets to match and the return of a 1st+2nd+3rd wouldn't be enough compensation especially if it's a late 1st. Vegas could hit WPG HARD with that deal and absolutely be fine with paying Trouba that money! They also have all three of their picks in 2019 which makes it feasible.

WPG signs it out of spite I think though

Why do you think they would be fine over paying Trouba by a couple million a season. They have 3 highly sought after RFA's themselves in Karlsson, Theadore and Miller. Do they then plan on over paying them a couple M each as well. Karlsson is a center who just scored 43 goals at age 25. If Trouba is worth $8M so is he. The following year MAF and Schmidt to re-sign as UFA's, never mind 3 1st round picks from last season who will be coming off their ELC's before you know it. Not sure LV is that interested to start a cycle of internal inflation at this point in their history.

 

[KingBogo]

I don't think the offer sheet was ever gone - but it will continue to be used sparingly. I don't think GM's like to get them signed and then be matched. And I'm sure they don't like losing four 1st rd picks.

They also don't like overpaying for players. No signing is a one off. It impacts every signing after it.

 

[libertarian]

31 Thoughts: Is Vegas thinking about re-visiting Erik Karlsson deal? - Sportsnet.ca

Thanks, Maurice. The guy does the Jets a huge solid in the summer, and you scratch him - 2nd best LHD - in the most important game for this franchise that he's ever played. Well, should have played. Congratulations - you played yourself, Maurice. Now, I felt that Enstrom's time was at an end after this season regardless, but for him to go out like that is a huge slap in the face for the work he's done for the team.

Last time I looked the NHL was a result base business. While player loyalty is important, replacing a 5/6 D like Enstrom to shake thing up in a do or die game is no big deal. I got no issue what PoMo did.

Enstrom's NHL career is most likely over and is definitely over with the Jets. This was going to be true if he played the last game or not. If you want to win it all you cannot put loyalty to vets over putting in the best lineup that you can to win.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Last time I looked the NHL was a result base business. While player loyalty is important, replacing a 5/6 D like Enstrom to shake thing up in a do or die game is no big deal. I got no issue what PoMo did.

Enstrom's NHL career is most likely over and is definitely over with the Jets. This was going to be true if he played the last game or not. If you want to win it all you cannot put loyalty to vets over putting in the best lineup that you can to win.

Of course, it's worth remembering that, no other defenseman in the entire league allowed high danger shot attempts against at a lower rate than Toby Enstrom last year. For his swan song in the league, it was a helluva performance.

 

[ERYX]

Trouba being offersheeted 8Mx 5 years would be very hard/hurtful for the Jets to match and the return of a 1st+2nd+3rd wouldn't be enough compensation especially if it's a late 1st. Vegas could hit WPG HARD with that deal and absolutely be fine with paying Trouba that money! They also have all three of their picks in 2019 which makes it feasible.

WPG signs it out of spite I think though

Vegas -- given their shenanigans at the trade deadline and during the playoffs -- certainly seem like the type of organization willing to engage in such tactics and the consequences of how other teams deal with them be damned. Trouba would probably love it in Vegas as well -- team that made it to the SCF, lots of money and term, an American city where he can build his brand.

I agree that the return in picks would not even be that good for us, but I wouldn't want the Jets to handcuff themselves by signing such a contract out of spite. That would be playing right into Vegas' hands. I'd rather see them be on the hook for $8 mill per on Trouba plus whatever they'll have to pay William Karllson when his time comes.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Trouba being offersheeted 8Mx 5 years would be very hard/hurtful for the Jets to match and the return of a 1st+2nd+3rd wouldn't be enough compensation especially if it's a late 1st. Vegas could hit WPG HARD with that deal and absolutely be fine with paying Trouba that money! They also have all three of their picks in 2019 which makes it feasible.

WPG signs it out of spite I think though

I don't think that the Jets organization does anything out of spite. They are methodical to a fault.

 

[scarbrow21]

I don't think that the Jets organization does anything out of spite. They are methodical to a fault.

The methodical answer might correspond with the spite action though. They NEED Trouba and letting him go for a late 1st, 2nd, and 3rd costs now and in the long run!

 

[cbcwpg]

Or sign him up before others take a shot at him.

I think the notion that teams won't use offer sheets is perhaps not true anymore. Maybe it's the expansion draft, or parity, but I think the days of GMs acting nice are waning. I think we're going to see more cutthroat action, including offer sheets against vulnerable teams.

I posted this in another thread, but in the last 20 years a team has only been successful using an offer sheet once.

Maybe we will see more, but it makes for some really bad vibes between teams.

 

[kcin94]

The danger is something like 7.5-8m x 5 years. Trouba probably likes that because he's still in his prime when he hits UFA.

but what team offers that? Pay like crazy and lose so many draft picks and don't even get him for a max deal?

 

[10Ducky10]

If Vegas or anyone wants to give Lowry 4 x 4, they will live to regret it. Karma is a bytch.

Someone offers trouba 4 x 8m, I would sign and trade him but his agent would know this beforehand. He could be traded to any team in the league.

It'd be nice if he locked up Trouba before his deal ends.

 

[None]

4. As Nick Kypreos reported on Headlines, Kevin Hayes is a logical possibility for Winnipeg. A centre, and, like the departed Paul Stastny, a lefty. They won’t be the only chasers, and there’s no guarantee the Rangers are in any hurry.

31 Thoughts: The hidden benefits of NHL’s big gambling bet - Sportsnet.ca

#18-24 are also Jets related but posting them in their entirety would probably fill the page.

 

[mondo3]

Interesting - but I thought he plays RW

 

[Gil Fisher]

I'd prefer if the Jets stayed away from the trade market this year. Unless its term for term - "a hockey trade".