Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
- 14,981
- 11,359
Why I would not Panic about losing flexibility with Killorn and Johnson ($1M retained):
RFA Bridge: sign Kunin 2 yrs, $1.75M + $2.25M = $2M AAV
2020-21
Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($8M)- Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Killorn ($4.45M) - Duchene ($8M) - Kunin (?RFA - $2M?)
Grimaldi ($2M) - Johnson ($4M) - Sissons ($2.857M)
Jarnkrok ($2M) - Richardson ($1M) - Cousins ($1.5M)
Trenin ($0.725M)
Josi ($9.059M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Fabbro ($0.925M)
Borowiecki ($2M) - Benning ($1M)
Tinordi ($700k) - Carrier ($0.733M)
Rinne ($5M)
Saros ($1.5M)
Turris buyout ($2M)
Santini buyout ($0.04167M)
TOTAL: $79.74M
CAP SPACE = $1.76M
Expansion Draft
7-3-1: Forsberg/Johansen/Arvidsson/Duchene/Kunin/Trenin/Killorn + Josi/???? +
- result: lose a D
-OR-
4-4-1: Forsberg/Arvidsson/Kunin/hmmm - could expose either $8M forward + Josi/Ekholm/Ellis/Fabbro
- result: lose a F
RFA Bridge: sign Fabbro 2 yrs, $1.75M + $2.25M = $2M AAV
RFA: Saros 4x$4M = $4M AAV
2021-22
Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($8M)- Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Killorn ($4.45M) - Duchene ($8M) - Kunin ( $2M)
Grimaldi ($2M) - Johnson ($4M) - Trenin ($0.725M)
Jarnkrok ($2M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Cousins ($1.5M)
Tomasino ($0.894M)
Josi ($9.059M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Fabbro (RFA - $2M)
Borowiecki ($2M) - Benning ($1M)
Farrance ($0.925M) - Carrier ($0.733M)
Saros ($4M)
Ingram ($0.733M)
Turris buyout ($2M)
Santini buyout ($0.275M)
TOTAL: $79.4M
CAP SPACE = $2.1M
- but we also lost a player in Expansion, not accounted for here
UFAs let walk: Grimaldi, Jarnkrok, Cousins, Borowiecki, Cousins
2022-23
Forsberg (?UFA - $8M?) - Johansen ($8M)- Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Killorn ($4.45M) - Duchene ($8M) - Kunin (?RFA - $4M?)
Tomasino ($0.894M) - Johnson ($4M) - Trenin (?RFA - $2M?)
?Pitlick? - Sissons ($2.857M) - ?Tolvanen? - ?keep Cousins?
?Afanaseyev?
Josi ($9.059M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm (?UFA - $6.25M?) - Fabbro (RFA - $2M)
Farrance ($0.925M) - Carrier ($0.733M)
?Davies? - ?Allard? - ?keep Benning?
Saros ($4M)
Ingram ($0.733M)
Turris buyout ($2M)
TOTAL: $78.4M
CAP SPACE = $3.1M (if Cap is still $81.5M anyway)
- but we also lost a player in Expansion the year before, and there are tons of roster spots open and if we failed in 2021-22 we probably "blow it up" anyway
etc etc
Bottom line is we are never going to be up against a wall because of adding Killorn and Johnson. Are they the best we could do, though? Maybe, maybe not. Anyway, I would look at it as a 2-year experiment, basically. If we haven't enjoyed any success in those 2 years, then 2022-23 has enough contracts expiring that massive changes could be made and youngsters could be brought in, full rebuild-style if needed.
The lineup for 2020-21 has great depth. But it still really needs the existing "big guns" to pull through and Hynes to implement a successful gameplan. There's no new savior... just much more depth everywhere. But it's not like Hoffman or anybody else available right now is really "savior" level either.
Depending on who is lost in Expansion, there could be room to add a bigger name UFA in 2021-22 for a last push. Or basically make a second go at it with the same lineup.
And if we haven't done anything after 2021-22 the whole lineup is pretty wide open and a rebuild is open for 2022-23 which also aligns more with any bigger dings from a Weber recapture penalty (although I still don't believe in that happening - but either way it can be accommodated if needed).
It will seem like we wasted 2020-21 and 2021-22 maybe if those lineups still just continue to spin their wheels. When we could have been building with youth even earlier instead. But we're not fundamentally constrained from trying it. I know the last couple years maybe made us a little cynical about our chances, the way most of Poile's moves aimed at contention have generally failed to pan out. But I still would rather try to win now if possible. Like all those other moves that backfired, we could at least console ourselves after the fact with the thought that the team tried anyway.
I mean, there are lots of little nitpicky areas you could challenge in those roster projections, but the bottom line argument would be that adding Killorn and Johnson is totally feasible without really giving us insurmountable Cap challenges. But I still need Tampa to pay me to take them too. At least with a 1st and the $1M retention on Johnson, but perhaps with another prospect as well. It's also no skin off our backs if they don't want to pay that price.
RFA Bridge: sign Kunin 2 yrs, $1.75M + $2.25M = $2M AAV
2020-21
Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($8M)- Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Killorn ($4.45M) - Duchene ($8M) - Kunin (?RFA - $2M?)
Grimaldi ($2M) - Johnson ($4M) - Sissons ($2.857M)
Jarnkrok ($2M) - Richardson ($1M) - Cousins ($1.5M)
Trenin ($0.725M)
Josi ($9.059M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Fabbro ($0.925M)
Borowiecki ($2M) - Benning ($1M)
Tinordi ($700k) - Carrier ($0.733M)
Rinne ($5M)
Saros ($1.5M)
Turris buyout ($2M)
Santini buyout ($0.04167M)
TOTAL: $79.74M
CAP SPACE = $1.76M
Expansion Draft
7-3-1: Forsberg/Johansen/Arvidsson/Duchene/Kunin/Trenin/Killorn + Josi/???? +
- result: lose a D
-OR-
4-4-1: Forsberg/Arvidsson/Kunin/hmmm - could expose either $8M forward + Josi/Ekholm/Ellis/Fabbro
- result: lose a F
RFA Bridge: sign Fabbro 2 yrs, $1.75M + $2.25M = $2M AAV
RFA: Saros 4x$4M = $4M AAV
2021-22
Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($8M)- Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Killorn ($4.45M) - Duchene ($8M) - Kunin ( $2M)
Grimaldi ($2M) - Johnson ($4M) - Trenin ($0.725M)
Jarnkrok ($2M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Cousins ($1.5M)
Tomasino ($0.894M)
Josi ($9.059M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Fabbro (RFA - $2M)
Borowiecki ($2M) - Benning ($1M)
Farrance ($0.925M) - Carrier ($0.733M)
Saros ($4M)
Ingram ($0.733M)
Turris buyout ($2M)
Santini buyout ($0.275M)
TOTAL: $79.4M
CAP SPACE = $2.1M
- but we also lost a player in Expansion, not accounted for here
UFAs let walk: Grimaldi, Jarnkrok, Cousins, Borowiecki, Cousins
2022-23
Forsberg (?UFA - $8M?) - Johansen ($8M)- Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Killorn ($4.45M) - Duchene ($8M) - Kunin (?RFA - $4M?)
Tomasino ($0.894M) - Johnson ($4M) - Trenin (?RFA - $2M?)
?Pitlick? - Sissons ($2.857M) - ?Tolvanen? - ?keep Cousins?
?Afanaseyev?
Josi ($9.059M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm (?UFA - $6.25M?) - Fabbro (RFA - $2M)
Farrance ($0.925M) - Carrier ($0.733M)
?Davies? - ?Allard? - ?keep Benning?
Saros ($4M)
Ingram ($0.733M)
Turris buyout ($2M)
TOTAL: $78.4M
CAP SPACE = $3.1M (if Cap is still $81.5M anyway)
- but we also lost a player in Expansion the year before, and there are tons of roster spots open and if we failed in 2021-22 we probably "blow it up" anyway
etc etc
Bottom line is we are never going to be up against a wall because of adding Killorn and Johnson. Are they the best we could do, though? Maybe, maybe not. Anyway, I would look at it as a 2-year experiment, basically. If we haven't enjoyed any success in those 2 years, then 2022-23 has enough contracts expiring that massive changes could be made and youngsters could be brought in, full rebuild-style if needed.
The lineup for 2020-21 has great depth. But it still really needs the existing "big guns" to pull through and Hynes to implement a successful gameplan. There's no new savior... just much more depth everywhere. But it's not like Hoffman or anybody else available right now is really "savior" level either.
Depending on who is lost in Expansion, there could be room to add a bigger name UFA in 2021-22 for a last push. Or basically make a second go at it with the same lineup.
And if we haven't done anything after 2021-22 the whole lineup is pretty wide open and a rebuild is open for 2022-23 which also aligns more with any bigger dings from a Weber recapture penalty (although I still don't believe in that happening - but either way it can be accommodated if needed).
It will seem like we wasted 2020-21 and 2021-22 maybe if those lineups still just continue to spin their wheels. When we could have been building with youth even earlier instead. But we're not fundamentally constrained from trying it. I know the last couple years maybe made us a little cynical about our chances, the way most of Poile's moves aimed at contention have generally failed to pan out. But I still would rather try to win now if possible. Like all those other moves that backfired, we could at least console ourselves after the fact with the thought that the team tried anyway.
I mean, there are lots of little nitpicky areas you could challenge in those roster projections, but the bottom line argument would be that adding Killorn and Johnson is totally feasible without really giving us insurmountable Cap challenges. But I still need Tampa to pay me to take them too. At least with a 1st and the $1M retention on Johnson, but perhaps with another prospect as well. It's also no skin off our backs if they don't want to pay that price.