Free Agent Frenzy

[Predsanddead24]

It makes sense to utilize them, on paper, from the armchair GM perspective. But the real NHL GMs are just too collusional, more interested in maintaining their standing in the community and perceive that using offer sheets is not competing in good faith. Too bad.

Poile especially - it's not like he's going to be in the business all that much longer - I don't understand why he should care THAT much about annoying a rival GM. But I guess when he goes in front of the Weber tribunal at some point, he may look somewhat better before a panel if he has never done any of that himself.

Anyway as much as I like the idea, I am also 100% certain it will never happen.

I think part of it is that if offer sheets become common then you'll see a bit of salary inflation among RFAs that GMs in general want to avoid. It's currently a pretty good deal for GMs to be able to keep their homegrown talents for cheap. It is kind of surprising to me that some of the young non traditional type GMs like Chayka or Dubas haven't tried to use it more, but neither of them were probably in the best situation to do it at any point either.

 

[Armourboy]

I think over time you will see it used more and more against teams with cap issues. It won't happen overnight, but as the older GM's move out it wouldn't shock me.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I think part of it is that if offer sheets become common then you'll see a bit of salary inflation among RFAs that GMs in general want to avoid. It's currently a pretty good deal for GMs to be able to keep their homegrown talents for cheap. It is kind of surprising to me that some of the young non traditional type GMs like Chayka or Dubas haven't tried to use it more, but neither of them were probably in the best situation to do it at any point either.

Dubas seems to be doing a pretty good job of inflating RFA salaries without offer sheets.

 

[Scoresberg]

I'm not sure I agree with guys like Hoffman or Granlund going for one-year deals. The financial situation might be even worse next offseason, it's not like this pandemic and the financials consequenses will go away all of a sudden. I don't believe for a second that there will magically be a lot more money to go around next offseason, in fact I think the belt might even tighter.

Especially in Hoffman's case, he will be 31 when next season starts and him keeping his level of play isn't a guarantee anymore. I think he should just cash in on 4-5 year deal right now, he will lose a few million compared to normal financial climate but so be it. Shitty year to be UFA but now I think it's time to try to cut the losses and try to maximize whatever you can.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I'm not sure I agree with guys like Hoffman or Granlund going for one-year deals. The financial situation might be even worse next offseason, it's not like this pandemic and the financials consequenses will go away all of a sudden. I don't believe for a second that there will magically be a lot more money to go around next offseason, in fact I think the belt might even tighter.

Especially in Hoffman's case, he will be 31 when next season starts and him keeping his level of play isn't a guarantee anymore. I think he should just cash in on 4-5 year deal right now, he will lose a few million compared to normal financial climate but so be it. Shitty year to be UFA but now I think it's time to try to cut the losses and try to maximize whatever you can.

It's impossible to say until you see the actual numbers being offered. Before the whole Covid interregnum I suspect Hoffman's team was eyeballing something like a 5 or 6 year deal at well over $6M per. 6x6.5 would be $39M.

So what long-term offers has he gotten today? 4 or 5 years at $4M or $5M? $20M or $25M is a fair ways off $39M. They are gambling that same contract is also on the table next year. So that if they take 1x$6M right now, then $20M or $25M + $6M at least gets them that one step closer to the original pre-retirement nest egg.

But of course it's still a gamble. Injury, poor performance, continued market contraction... who knows. I suspect that they aren't gambling that there will "magically be a lot more money to go around next offseason" but rather that if it at least stays about the same, they can string together more money overall by getting a higher 1-year cap hit right now to add to the same longer term contract taken a year from now that they're getting offered today.

But it's even harder for Granlund since his poor showing here probably meant there was already a lot more caution from teams in his case. I wonder if anybody even offered him a long-term deal at all. Even at the suppressed market numbers.

But I think they might want to be careful about just how much longer they wait on taking even a show-me deal. Cap space is evaporating quickly league-wide. They saw their long-term deals take a haircut. But it might not be long until even the 1-year offers are slashed lower than they've previously been offered.

 

[Scoresberg]

It's impossible to say until you see the actual numbers being offered. Before the whole Covid interregnum I suspect Hoffman's team was eyeballing something like a 5 or 6 year deal at well over $6M per. 6x6.5 would be $39M.



But I think they might want to be careful about just how much longer they wait on taking even a show-me deal. Cap space is evaporating quickly league-wide. They saw their long-term deals take a haircut. But it might not be long until even the 1-year offers are slashed lower than they've previously been offered.

Can't see anyone was willing to give Hoffman 6 years, even with 4 the last one might look ugly. 6x6,5 spells Lucic, Ladd or Eriksson even though he's not the same kind of player at all. And yeah, like I said, they should just suck it up, it's really unfortunate that their chance to cash in happened at this time. Just get the best 4 or 5-year deal out there and be done with it. Things are still uncertain come next offseason.

As to your second point, (which I accidentally deleted) that might be their logic but that doesn't mean I get it. He'll be 32 by that contract and who knows what kind of season he's coming off of. There aren't a lot of good fits out there for him anymore, not like Hall had with Eichel.

 

[Softball99]

1 yr contract gives personal control over expansion draft

 

[Armourboy]

1 yr contract gives personal control over expansion draft

It's also how you end up like Dak Prescott hoping everything turns out ok and you didn't just throw 10's of millions down the toilet.

 

[jumb0]

It's also how you end up like Dak Prescott hoping everything turns out ok and you didn't just throw 10's of millions down the toilet.

I think what's happened to the Cowboys since Dak went down only helps his case to cash in.

 

[Armourboy]

I think what's happened to the Cowboys since Dak went down only helps his case to cash in.

If you can't play worth a damn when you get back, you won't be cashing in for long. Its even more stupid on his part because they basically offered him what he was worth and he got greedy.

It would essentially be like Hoffman turning down a 7x6 because Patrick Kane got 10.5.

The point is taking on 1 year deals north of 30 is pretty risky. You gamble this year, things don't look any better the following year and you take an injury or have two rough years and now you can't get a contract or you are taking 1x1 contracts praying you get hot and the economics get better. One in the hand is better than two in the bush I believe is the old saying.

 

[jumb0]

If you can't play worth a damn when you get back, you won't be cashing in for long. Its even more stupid on his part because they basically offered him what he was worth and he got greedy.

It would essentially be like Hoffman turning down a 7x6 because Patrick Kane got 10.5.

The point is taking on 1 year deals north of 30 is pretty risky. You gamble this year, things don't look any better the following year and you take an injury or have two rough years and now you can't get a contract or you are taking 1x1 contracts praying you get hot and the economics get better. One in the hand is better than two in the bush I believe is the old saying.

He didn't get greedy. The opposite actually. Dallas wanted him on a 5 year deal, he wanted 4. That was the sticking point, not the $$ amount.

 

[Armourboy]

He didn't get greedy. The opposite actually. Dallas wanted him on a 5 year deal, he wanted 4. That was the sticking point, not the $$ amount.

Yeah let's go ask him today if he should have signed on for that extra year or not. It was greed, pure and simple.

And let keep in mind here we aren't talking a guy here who is trying to turn 1 million into 3 million. We are talking a guy that was going to be handed 10's of millions guaranteed.

 

[jumb0]

Yeah let's go ask him today if he should have signed on for that extra year or not. It was greed, pure and simple.

And let keep in mind here we aren't talking a guy here who is trying to turn 1 million into 3 million. We are talking a guy that was going to be handed 10's of millions guaranteed.

How is it "pure and simple greed" to turn down more total money because you don't want to be tied to the trainwreck Cowboys for a 5th year?

I can say with a lot of confidence that if you asked Dak right now he would not tell you that he wished he took the 5 year deal.

 

[OldFan]

I’m confused. Is this Dak person a forward or a Dman?

 

[Scoresberg]

Thinking about what we're going to do with all the cap space and I don't believe that we'll be helping any team out of their cap struggles.. feels like that sort of move would've happened by now. I think we're waiting on a guy like Hoffman to decide what direction he's gonna go and maybe try to snag some other UFAs as well.

 

[Scoresberg]

Just added a Poll to see what the general consensus is around here with what the Preds are going to do with the available cap space. We're probably the only contending team left with +$10 mil available in cap space, the other such teams are in rebuild. Definitely an interesting situation.

For me, I'm hoping for a guy like Hoffman but I'm getting more and more skeptical about it..

 

[jumb0]

Just added a Poll to see what the general consensus is around here with what the Preds are going to do with the available cap space. We're probably the only contending team left with +$10 mil available in cap space, the other such teams are in rebuild. Definitely an interesting situation.

For me, I'm hoping for a guy like Hoffman but I'm getting more and more skeptical about it..

I don't know what it is, but Hoffman has never moved the needle for me. Maybe if he were to come in on a 1 year deal he would be motivated to cash in and would light it up, but I'd almost rather do nothing than bring him in.

I still like the idea of pushing another team to give them cap relief better and getting multiple assets out of it.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Just added a Poll to see what the general consensus is around here with what the Preds are going to do with the available cap space. We're probably the only contending team left with +$10 mil available in cap space, the other such teams are in rebuild. Definitely an interesting situation.

For me, I'm hoping for a guy like Hoffman but I'm getting more and more skeptical about it..

I don't have any idea... I couldn't even vote. I don't know if Poile has a plan, and I don't know what I would prefer he do either.

I think I'd basically just be waiting and still considering ALL of those options. I would take Hoffman, but I don't want to sign him to another Turris-like long-term contract. Nevertheless, if his price drops low enough, then he's a shooting winger and potential PP-aid that I would still be ready to try. 1 year and $5M works for me.

Or... how much can we extract from Tampa? I like Killorn as a player and his contract is not so onerous. It doesn't seem like Tampa is at all "desperate" to make a move yet. But if they do reach a stage where there is an advantageous package for us, then I'd be ready to listen.

And then... the fallback of trying Tomasino, Tolvanen, Trenin in bigger roles is totally fine with me too. Or picking up one more "leftover" UFA like Kahun.

I'm good with any of it. So I can see why Poile is just watching, waiting. Seeing what fly eventually lands in his web.

 

[triggrman]

I like Hoffman as a player mainly because of his speed, my problem with signing him to a longer term deal is he's on the wrong side of 30, and we all know drops in speed can be dramatic. How effective of a player is he if his speed drops?
I do think we need more speed up front, which is why I push for Tomasino over Tolvanen.

 

[Scoresberg]

I don't know what it is, but Hoffman has never moved the needle for me.

The fact is that this team's biggest need right now is a top-6 forward, which Hoffman undoubtedly is. He has scored the 16th most goals in the league since 2014-2015, so we're pretty much talking about one of the most dangerous scorers in the game and he would instantly be the best goal scorer in our team. He doesn't do much else, but he does one thing and that's a pretty damn important thing to do well. That gets you paid in the NHL.

I'd be hesitant to go over 4 years, but if the AAV would be a tad lower, I wouldn't mind a 5-year deal. The last 1-2 years will be ugly, yes, but we're most likely not even contending by then.

Or... how much can we extract from Tampa? I like Killorn as a player and his contract is not so onerous. It doesn't seem like Tampa is at all "desperate" to make a move yet. But if they do reach a stage where there is an advantageous package for us, then I'd be ready to listen.

And then... the fallback of trying Tomasino, Tolvanen, Trenin in bigger roles is totally fine with me too. Or picking up one more "leftover" UFA like Kahun.

I'm good with any of it. So I can see why Poile is just watching, waiting. Seeing what fly eventually lands in his web.

Your assessment is probably pretty close to truth. The players and the GM's are waiting on the information about next season and I don't think much happens before they know what's going to happen.

As for Tampa, they most certainly do need to move at least one big contract, probably even two. And we're one of the most likely candidates to be there when they offload. I'd take Killorn with a sweetener but anything else and I'd be pretty disappointed to be quite honest. A player like Cernak or Foote as a sweetener for Tyler Johnson would be interesting but you'd have to protect them in the ED, so that deal is pretty much off the table. There would have to be a draft pick coming our way.

 

[Scoresberg]

From Vingan's new article in the Athletic:

"Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported earlier this month that “a few teams wondered if Nashville would go after Jonathan Marchessault” before the Schmidt trade."

So, there's another forward we could go after. We weaken the Golden Knights while we're at it as well. Marchessault is a really good top-6 scorer.

Also, Galchenuyk is apparently going to Ottawa. Would've been a nice reclamation project player for us as well..

 

[triggrman]

The fact is that this team's biggest need right now is a top-6 forward, which Hoffman undoubtedly is. He has scored the 16th most goals in the league since 2014-2015, so we're pretty much talking about one of the most dangerous scorers in the game and he would instantly be the best goal scorer in our team. He doesn't do much else, but he does one thing and that's a pretty damn important thing to do well. That gets you paid in the NHL.

I'd be hesitant to go over 4 years, but if the AAV would be a tad lower, I wouldn't mind a 5-year deal. The last 1-2 years will be ugly, yes, but we're most likely not even contending by then.



...

I'd pump the breaks on saying he'd be a better goal scorer than Forsberg in this system. 2 different types of scorers for sure. Forsberg in the last 4 years has 3 less goals in 27 less games.

 

[GoldOnGold]

From Vingan's new article in the Athletic:

"Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported earlier this month that “a few teams wondered if Nashville would go after Jonathan Marchessault” before the Schmidt trade."

So, there's another forward we could go after. We weaken the Golden Knights while we're at it as well. Marchessault is a really good top-6 scorer.

Also, Galchenuyk is apparently going to Ottawa. Would've been a nice reclamation project player for us as well..

Galchenyuk seemed like the kind of player we would pick up, but I don't think there's much there at this point.

 

[Soundgarden]

Galchenyuk seemed like the kind of player we would pick up, but I don't think there's much there at this point.

He would instantly be another Turris/Granlund. I would not be a fan.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

As for Tampa, they most certainly do need to move at least one big contract, probably even two. And we're one of the most likely candidates to be there when they offload. I'd take Killorn with a sweetener but anything else and I'd be pretty disappointed to be quite honest. A player like Cernak or Foote as a sweetener for Tyler Johnson would be interesting but you'd have to protect them in the ED, so that deal is pretty much off the table. There would have to be a draft pick coming our way.

Although... again if you got a "sweetener"... it's not absolutely necessary that you protect it in the Expansion Draft. Anything you get "for free"... well, you can use that player for a year, expose in the ED, and effectively lose nothing from the existing roster in the ED. You could look like it as if you're "buying protection".

I don't necessarily know how good Foote or Cernak would turn out to be relative to our current top-4 planned protections on D. But either way, "overloading" at the position definitely provides flexibility for steering the Expansion Draft in a way that doesn't ultimately set the team back.

Anyway, you'd have to see the specific deal. But I wouldn't necessarily reject a trade with TB just out of ED fears. Like the idea of Schmidt-for-a-3rd... who cares if you then lose him in the Expansion Draft... if it ultimately just translates to losing a 3rd in the Expansion Draft, that's a win.