Free Agent Frenzy

[Porter Stoutheart]

Why I would not Panic about losing flexibility with Killorn and Johnson ($1M retained):

RFA Bridge: sign Kunin 2 yrs, $1.75M + $2.25M = $2M AAV

2020-21
Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($8M)- Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Killorn ($4.45M) - Duchene ($8M) - Kunin (?RFA - $2M?)
Grimaldi ($2M) - Johnson ($4M) - Sissons ($2.857M)
Jarnkrok ($2M) - Richardson ($1M) - Cousins ($1.5M)
Trenin ($0.725M)

Josi ($9.059M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Fabbro ($0.925M)
Borowiecki ($2M) - Benning ($1M)
Tinordi ($700k) - Carrier ($0.733M)

Rinne ($5M)
Saros ($1.5M)

Turris buyout ($2M)
Santini buyout ($0.04167M)

TOTAL: $79.74M
CAP SPACE = $1.76M


Expansion Draft
7-3-1: Forsberg/Johansen/Arvidsson/Duchene/Kunin/Trenin/Killorn + Josi/???? +
- result: lose a D
-OR-
4-4-1: Forsberg/Arvidsson/Kunin/hmmm - could expose either $8M forward + Josi/Ekholm/Ellis/Fabbro
- result: lose a F

RFA Bridge: sign Fabbro 2 yrs, $1.75M + $2.25M = $2M AAV
RFA: Saros 4x$4M = $4M AAV

2021-22
Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($8M)- Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Killorn ($4.45M) - Duchene ($8M) - Kunin ( $2M)
Grimaldi ($2M) - Johnson ($4M) - Trenin ($0.725M)
Jarnkrok ($2M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Cousins ($1.5M)
Tomasino ($0.894M)

Josi ($9.059M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Fabbro (RFA - $2M)
Borowiecki ($2M) - Benning ($1M)
Farrance ($0.925M) - Carrier ($0.733M)

Saros ($4M)
Ingram ($0.733M)

Turris buyout ($2M)
Santini buyout ($0.275M)

TOTAL: $79.4M
CAP SPACE = $2.1M
- but we also lost a player in Expansion, not accounted for here


UFAs let walk: Grimaldi, Jarnkrok, Cousins, Borowiecki, Cousins

2022-23
Forsberg (?UFA - $8M?) - Johansen ($8M)- Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Killorn ($4.45M) - Duchene ($8M) - Kunin (?RFA - $4M?)
Tomasino ($0.894M) - Johnson ($4M) - Trenin (?RFA - $2M?)
?Pitlick? - Sissons ($2.857M) - ?Tolvanen? - ?keep Cousins?
?Afanaseyev?


Josi ($9.059M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm (?UFA - $6.25M?) - Fabbro (RFA - $2M)
Farrance ($0.925M) - Carrier ($0.733M)
?Davies? - ?Allard? - ?keep Benning?

Saros ($4M)
Ingram ($0.733M)

Turris buyout ($2M)


TOTAL: $78.4M
CAP SPACE = $3.1M (if Cap is still $81.5M anyway)
- but we also lost a player in Expansion the year before, and there are tons of roster spots open and if we failed in 2021-22 we probably "blow it up" anyway

etc etc

Bottom line is we are never going to be up against a wall because of adding Killorn and Johnson. Are they the best we could do, though? Maybe, maybe not. Anyway, I would look at it as a 2-year experiment, basically. If we haven't enjoyed any success in those 2 years, then 2022-23 has enough contracts expiring that massive changes could be made and youngsters could be brought in, full rebuild-style if needed.

The lineup for 2020-21 has great depth. But it still really needs the existing "big guns" to pull through and Hynes to implement a successful gameplan. There's no new savior... just much more depth everywhere. But it's not like Hoffman or anybody else available right now is really "savior" level either.

Depending on who is lost in Expansion, there could be room to add a bigger name UFA in 2021-22 for a last push. Or basically make a second go at it with the same lineup.

And if we haven't done anything after 2021-22 the whole lineup is pretty wide open and a rebuild is open for 2022-23 which also aligns more with any bigger dings from a Weber recapture penalty (although I still don't believe in that happening - but either way it can be accommodated if needed).

It will seem like we wasted 2020-21 and 2021-22 maybe if those lineups still just continue to spin their wheels. When we could have been building with youth even earlier instead. But we're not fundamentally constrained from trying it. I know the last couple years maybe made us a little cynical about our chances, the way most of Poile's moves aimed at contention have generally failed to pan out. But I still would rather try to win now if possible. Like all those other moves that backfired, we could at least console ourselves after the fact with the thought that the team tried anyway.

I mean, there are lots of little nitpicky areas you could challenge in those roster projections, but the bottom line argument would be that adding Killorn and Johnson is totally feasible without really giving us insurmountable Cap challenges. But I still need Tampa to pay me to take them too. At least with a 1st and the $1M retention on Johnson, but perhaps with another prospect as well. It's also no skin off our backs if they don't want to pay that price.

 

[Scoresberg]

Lebrun in his new article on Hoffman:

"In the meantime, if teams like Florida and/or Nashville, clubs that I believe have kept the channels of communication open with Hoffman’s camp, decide to step up financially, maybe Hoffman bites."

Lebrun also mentioned that the offers for Hoffman have ranged from about $3,5-4,5 mil. In my mind, that seems really low for one of the most prolific scorers in the game. He mentioned also that Hoffman's camp has been looking for as high as $6,5 mil and probably won't get that but $5-5,5 mil seems pretty reasonable.

 

[OldFan]

Lebrun in his new article on Hoffman:

"In the meantime, if teams like Florida and/or Nashville, clubs that I believe have kept the channels of communication open with Hoffman’s camp, decide to step up financially, maybe Hoffman bites."

Lebrun also mentioned that the offers for Hoffman have ranged from about $3,5-4,5 mil. In my mind, that seems really low for one of the most prolific scorers in the game. He mentioned also that Hoffman's camp has been looking for as high as $6,5 mil and probably won't get that but $5-5,5 mil seems pretty reasonable.

Frankly Preds don’t need another $5/5.5M player. They’ve got enough of those. Be great to have a proven scorer but there’s a limit of big contracts this club needs. I say try some of the kids or try for a trade.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Frankly Preds don’t need another $5/5.5M player. They’ve got enough of those. Be great to have a proven scorer but there’s a limit of big contracts this club needs. I say try some of the kids or try for a trade.

If he's only looking for a one-year contract I'd happily throw that much at him, certainly preferable to taking on some of these multi-year Tampa contracts (depending on what other assets we get back).

 

[Soundgarden]

Yeah, for a one year deal I'd say go for it, anything more than that is risky.

 

[herzausstein]

I don't want to give more than 1 year to Hoffman if we went after him. I don't want to have to protect him in expansion draft as i don't think he'd be worth putting 1 of the top 4 dmen as exposed or prompt trading 1 of them.

 

[BigFatCat999]

so the NHL is planning a Jan 1st date, It's only October. I take a nap till Dec...25th

 

[triggrman]

Lebrun in his new article on Hoffman:

"In the meantime, if teams like Florida and/or Nashville, clubs that I believe have kept the channels of communication open with Hoffman’s camp, decide to step up financially, maybe Hoffman bites."

Lebrun also mentioned that the offers for Hoffman have ranged from about $3,5-4,5 mil. In my mind, that seems really low for one of the most prolific scorers in the game. He mentioned also that Hoffman's camp has been looking for as high as $6,5 mil and probably won't get that but $5-5,5 mil seems pretty reasonable.

Prolific? Huh, I’d say speedy scorer, but to hit that prolific status you’d need to sniff top to at least top 15 in a season, Hoffman isn’t in that category. He’s not worth a ton because his game is limited to being a cherry picking breakaways. There’s value in that, goals are tough to come by but he’s a one trick pony.

 

[Armourboy]

My guess is the teams offering around 4 are also offering multiple years and they don't want to get stuck with an old player on a bad contract. I'd give him 6 for one year, but for anything long term he would have to come in cheap.

 

[Scoresberg]

Prolific? Huh, I’d say speedy scorer, but to hit that prolific status you’d need to sniff top to at least top 15 in a season, Hoffman isn’t in that category. He’s not worth a ton because his game is limited to being a cherry picking breakaways. There’s value in that, goals are tough to come by but he’s a one trick pony.

I said what I said. The guy delivers 30g's year in year out and has a playing style that should age gracefully. If we'd give him 4 or 5 years, the last 1-2 years would look ugly but we're probably not even contending by then, not to mention that with that kind of term the AAV should stay lower so he could play on the 3rd line the last couple of years of his contract.

Hoffman's scored the 16th most goals in the league since 2014-2015 (30 goals per season) playing 2nd line minutes (17:07 per game). I'd argue he could've scored 40 with good linemates and 1st line minutes. He's as good as secondary scorers come.

 

[triggrman]

He’s scored 30 or more once and is totally dependent on speed, that doesn’t always age well. He gets second line minutes because he’s a defensive liability.

 

[jumb0]

I don’t get why Hoffman is labeled as a perineal 30 goal scorer. He’s scored 30 once in his entire nhl career.

 

[Scoresberg]

I don’t get why Hoffman is labeled as a perineal 30 goal scorer. He’s scored 30 once in his entire nhl career.

I think it's because his goal scoring pace has been around 30 goals a year since 2014-2015.

2014-2015: 79 games, 27 goals ~ 28 goal pace
2015-2016: 78 games, 29 goals ~ 30 goal pace
2016-2017: 74 games, 26 goals ~ 29 goal pace
2017-2018: 82 games, 22 goals - weaker year by his standards.
2018-2019: 82 games, 36 goals
2019-2020: 69 games, 29 goals ~ 34 goal pace.

And it's not like those numbers have all been scored on a contract year either, he delivers it every season. His playoff production has also been decent, although the sample size is relatively small. He has 10 goals in 29 playoff games which translates to a 28 goal a season pace.

 

[triggrman]

Scoring at a 30 goal pace isn't the same as saying he's an annual 30 goal scorer. It doesn't always translate.

Again, I like him but he's got some warts. He's a breakaway machine which helps back defenders up, but also makes him a huge liability defensively. He's very light and easy to knock off the puck. In a more defensive system would a coach allow him the room that he needs to be successful?

 

[OldFan]

Scoring at a 30 goal pace isn't the same as saying he's an annual 30 goal scorer. It doesn't always translate.

Again, I like him but he's got some warts. He's a breakaway machine which helps back defenders up, but also makes him a huge liability defensively. He's very light and easy to knock off the puck. In a more defensive system would a coach allow him the room that he needs to be successful?

I’m not big on plus/minus but when you score 36 goals and 70 total points and are a -24 , that at least indicates some kinda trend.

 

[triggrman]

I’m not big on plus/minus but when you score 36 goals and 70 total points and are a -24 , that at least indicates some kinda trend.

I think in general you can’t be your team leader or one of on the negative side.

 

[Armourboy]

I’m not big on plus/minus but when you score 36 goals and 70 total points and are a -24 , that at least indicates some kinda trend.

You would need to know what everyone on the team was at for it to be a semi useable stat. If he was -24 and most of the rest of the team was in the same boat then it doesn't mean much. If most everyone else is neutral or a + then yeah that tells you something.

 

[OldFan]

You would need to know what everyone on the team was at for it to be a semi useable stat. If he was -24 and most of the rest of the team was in the same boat then it doesn't mean much. If most everyone else is neutral or a + then yeah that tells you something.

If you’re insinuating he may have been on a poor team, you’re probably right. But a minus 24 means he played his part in the poor D.

 

[jumb0]

If you’re insinuating he may have been on a poor team, you’re probably right. But a minus 24 means he played his part in the poor D.

Hoffman is widely known as being a liability defensively

 

[Scoresberg]

Hoffman is widely known as being a liability defensively

So are a lot of the best scorers in the game. All of the best goal scorers cheat in the defensive end in order to get open.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

To read the main boards it sort of sounds like Hoffman has... 100 problems. Not just 99.

But past all that, his goals and PP shooting still sound like a fit to me, for our team. Except if he's on a different page with where he wants to play or how much $$$ he expects to earn... fair enough. I think we're far enough along in the process to simply accept that he had made that call. No take backs. He's not coming here. So... moving on...

 

[Scoresberg]

Except if he's on a different page with where he wants to play or how much $$$ he expects to earn... fair enough. I think we're far enough along in the process to simply accept that he had made that call. No take backs. He's not coming here. So... moving on...

Ehh, I wouldn't go as far as saying he doesn't want to be here. He's just looking for a fair deal right now and no one's willing to give him that at this point. We're a good fit for him given the list of teams who can afford him anymore. Poile just has to pony up, 30 goal scorers cost you in the NHL as they should.

 

[Legionnaire11]

To read the main boards it sort of sounds like Hoffman has... 100 problems. Not just 99.

That's the thing with HF. Players who are popular and producing are generational talents alongside the all-time greats. Players who aren't perfect are garbage and don't deserve an NHL contract. Some fan bases overvalue their players and undervalue opposing players, some fan bases undervalue their own players and overvalue opposing players. And an incredible majority of HF watches only their team and nothing else.

For the Preds, I could be wrong because my view is from the inside. But I see our fanbase as clinging to our guys, believe it or not I think we're a very risk averse fanbase who would rather stick it out with the players we have because the next guy might totally bomb (it's been changing more recently). And I think we're a fanbase that remembers getting stung for a long time, whether that's draft busts like Finley, Blum, Pickard, Parent, or player defections like Suter and Radulov. In those regards I think we're a reflection of the Predators way, which of course is Poile's way, which obviously is the only way most any of us have known.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

That's the thing with HF. Players who are popular and producing are generational talents alongside the all-time greats. Players who aren't perfect are garbage and don't deserve an NHL contract. Some fan bases overvalue their players and undervalue opposing players, some fan bases undervalue their own players and overvalue opposing players. And an incredible majority of HF watches only their team and nothing else.

For the Preds, I could be wrong because my view is from the inside. But I see our fanbase as clinging to our guys, believe it or not I think we're a very risk averse fanbase who would rather stick it out with the players we have because the next guy might totally bomb (it's been changing more recently). And I think we're a fanbase that remembers getting stung for a long time, whether that's draft busts like Finley, Blum, Pickard, Parent, or player defections like Suter and Radulov. In those regards I think we're a reflection of the Predators way, which of course is Poile's way, which obviously is the only way most any of us have known.

And to extrapolate a little bit on that... it's why the organization is probably not keen to sign players who are just looking for a mercenary 1-year opportunity to market themselves for a better payday next year. So the Hall pursuit ends when he doesn't want to sign longer term at the kind of numbers this year's market supports, and perhaps ditto with Hoffman?

 

[Armourboy]

And to extrapolate a little bit on that... it's why the organization is probably not keen to sign players who are just looking for a mercenary 1-year opportunity to market themselves for a better payday next year. So the Hall pursuit ends when he doesn't want to sign longer term at the kind of numbers this year's market supports, and perhaps ditto with Hoffman?

I think Hoffman has more to do with Hoffman. No one is willing to give him what he wants which is why he isn't signed.