Prospect Info: Expectations for Timothy Liljegren in 2020-21

[Funk21]

BECAUSE NO OTHER NHL TEAM WAS CAPABLE OF FACTORING IN MONO!

Seriously you don’t think injury/mono or a poor showing due said condition is gonna affect draft status? Seriously?

Look this is just one example and as much as it pains me to use Burke as an example he had Morgan Rielly number 1OA his draft year but because of that knee injury we likely got him as a steal at 5. The whole thing is never black and white. Media are like goldfish, one minute they are praising you as the second coming the next they want to tear you down. Would we have all liked him to step into the NHL after his draft year sure but very few kids can do that. Furthermore for most it’s better for their long term development learn the game away from the spotlight.

 

[4thline]

Liljegren dropped for two reasons

1. Not mono, but a post mono drop in play. The back half of his draft year was a step back rather than a step forward at a time when development is normally rapid. Everyone knew he had had mono, but there was no way to be sure if it was completely responsible for the drop in play vs. him just not being as good as previously thought, and even if it was as good- how much damage could it have done to his long term development. That uncertainty represented a major source of risk with his selection. and dropped him from 2-3 to 9-11

2. Draft list variability. Most lists still had him around 9-11, with IIRC a couple outliers in the teens and a couple as high as 7. While being drafted at 17 seems like a "faller" from consensus ranking, it's really not. Only 14 teams passed on him, and those that did likely had him higher than 17, just with different players ahead of him. People wildly underestimate the variation in draft lists and the impact it has on what happens on draft day.


That being said- number 1 doesn't really matter, and 2 barely does. We're looking at D+4 and he hasn't secured a full-time spot. Whether Mono stunted his development or he wasn't as good as everyone thought he was at 16 his post mono development track didn't snap right back to a top 3 pick. What it has been though, is absolutely excellent for a mid-low teens 1st rounder trending to be a top 4 defenseman with top pair upside.

 

[ACC1224]

He obviously has a boatload of skill, but from interviews and social media it seems to me like he's not the sharpest kid. It's just my opinion that he could possibly fail due to the lack of toolbox. I never said there was evidence or that there may be some other reason, I don't know why you're so offended by me sharing my opinion on a hockey talk website where people share their opinion.

Like I said, I'm a huge leafs fan and I really hope he becomes what some people think he will become.

Lots of thick players have made it, it shouldn’t hold him back. As long as he’s waiver eligible there is still time.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Lots of thick players have made it, it shouldn’t hold him back. As long as he’s waiver eligible there is still time.

So that poster was basically saying that because Liljegren barely spoke english when he came over, that clearly means he's stupid and can't play hockey? lol

 

[ACC1224]

So that poster was basically saying that because Liljegren barely spoke english when he came over, that clearly means he's stupid and can't play hockey? lol

Just re read what I quoted and that was never mentioned.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Seriously you don’t think injury/mono or a poor showing due said condition is gonna affect draft status? Seriously?

Look this is just one example and as much as it pains me to use Burke as an example he had Morgan Rielly number 1OA his draft year but because of that knee injury we likely got him as a steal at 5. The whole thing is never black and white. Media are like goldfish, one minute they are praising you as the second coming the next they want to tear you down. Would we have all liked him to step into the NHL after his draft year sure but very few kids can do that. Furthermore for most it’s better for their long term development learn the game away from the spotlight.

Burke had him at number 1 internally, but other teams didn't and he was never a consensus top 3 pick... Apples to oranges.
Myself, I hope Liljegren pans out and am willing to give him more time, but I was not even remotely impressed during his call-up and can't for the life of me understand how some consider him to be on par or even above(!) Sandin.

 

[meefer]

One thing that always amuses me is the lack of patience some Leafs fans have. Along with their expectations. Oh, and the inability to understand that people develop into what they will be at different rates. Damn, forgot one...that the reality of a player not having his best year every year causes no end of frustration for some. Yup, it's kinda amusing.

What does dropping to 17, where we took Lily, have to do with a darned thing? Ok, he dropped, for whatever reason(s) and the Leafs picked him. For discussion purposes, shouldn't the question simply be was it a good use of the 17th pick? For simplicity sake, why not take a look at the other Dmen drafted near where we took TL: Foote(14th), Brannstrom(15th), Valimaki(16th), and Vaakanainen(18th).

Foote: AHL, 144 games/60 pts, NHL, 0 games
Brannstrom: AHL, 77 games/50 pts, NHL, 33 games/4 pts
Valimaki: AHL, 20 games/14 pts, NHL, 24 games/3 pts
Liljegren: AHL, 127 games/62 pts, NHL, 11 games/1 pts
Vaakanainen: AHL, 84 games/28 pts, NHL, 7 games/0 pts

I know, I know...you're saying 'that doesn't tell me much'. Me, I think it tells me all I need to know for this discussion. These young players are not the best in class - to date (and likely forever) - they're learning their craft, slowly being exposed to the demands of the NHL, and have to date shared similar successes. Curiously, I don't often read about the other fan bases suggesting their young D prospects are bad. But Toronto fans, well, there's a special bunch of fans in Toronto who only see the negative. Tavares, overpaid and is going to be a boat anchor, Willy's a selfish, overpaid prima donna, heck, there were folks here bitching about Mitch after the contract...grrrrrr.

Timothy Liljegren is developing nicely, and generally around the same pace as his contemporaries, that's a good thing. He is not a finished product. He most likely will become a better player next year, and the year after that, and then probably the following year. He may never become a 1st pairing D, but he may. We just don't know because it's too early in his career to know. But, it would be nice if we could support him, and give him the time to get to the level he can.

Goodnight folks, be well.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Just re read what I quoted and that was never mentioned.

Not in those exact words but he said "from interviews and social media he doesn't seem like the sharpest kid" I've seen most of his imterviews and he's more well spoken than most kids.

And when you see him on the ice he nearly always makes the smart play.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Burke had him at number 1 internally, but other teams didn't and he was never a consensus top 3 pick... Apples to oranges.
Myself, I hope Liljegren pans out and am willing to give him more time, but I was not even remotely impressed during his call-up and can't for the life of me understand how some consider him to be on par or even above(!) Sandin.

It is impossible to know where these kids are going to pan out for a few years so even consideration guess at this stage.

In terms of raw skill Dermy leads da pack right now. He is fastest skater of group (only a touch behind Rielly), has best shot and is best open ice hitter. Sandin is smartest of group for hockey smarts, has best hands and is best lateral skater. Lily is a better straight line skater than Sandin and at least with Marlies plays best positionally in his own end.

But bottom line we have 3 guys who have NHL skills. Best bet is we end up in 4-7 years with 3 #1's. But most likely we will end up with a #1, and 2nd pair guy and a flame out. At this point no one including Shanny knows where things will end up because biggest part of development for a defender is at NHL level and some guys flourish better with vet partnering.

To me I would place my bet on Dermy. Yes he may be dumbest of group and his inconsistency is obvious. But if he partners up for a couple seasons with Rielly or Muzzy he is type of kid I think who can turn into a legit NHL #1. I would put it at 4 more years of development to get there.

It is harder to know with sandin and Lily because Sandin is still not quite an NHL level straight line skater yet and I don't know if he will get there. Speed is very difficult to improve. With Lily he clearly has some confidence issues but I have seen him skate with NHLers and he can keep up. But Sandin is so d*mn smart that I would take him over Lily in a flip.

 

[ACC1224]

Not in those exact words but he said "from interviews and social media he doesn't seem like the sharpest kid" I've seen most of his imterviews and he's more well spoken than most kids.

And when you see him on the ice he nearly always makes the smart play.

It does seem like social media has a big influence on the younger posters here(not implying Mugsy97 is one). I ignore those that constantly post random twitter thoughts as some type of proof of anything. It's not really that hard to form your own opinion from watching the play. If he turns into a top 4 defenseman he could be the dumbest man alive for all I care. He does seem like he has a ways to go to reach that though.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

It is impossible to know where these kids are going to pan out for a few years so even consideration guess at this stage.

In terms of raw skill Dermy leads da pack right now. He is fastest skater of group (only a touch behind Rielly), has best shot and is best open ice hitter. Sandin is smartest of group for hockey smarts, has best hands and is best lateral skater. Lily is a better straight line skater than Sandin and at least with Marlies plays best positionally in his own end.

But bottom line we have 3 guys who have NHL skills. Best bet is we end up in 4-7 years with 3 #1's. But most likely we will end up with a #1, and 2nd pair guy and a flame out. At this point no one including Shanny knows where things will end up because biggest part of development for a defender is at NHL level and some guys flourish better with vet partnering.

To me I would place my bet on Dermy. Yes he may be dumbest of group and his inconsistency is obvious. But if he partners up for a couple seasons with Rielly or Muzzy he is type of kid I think who can turn into a legit NHL #1. I would put it at 4 more years of development to get there.

It is harder to know with sandin and Lily because Sandin is still not quite an NHL level straight line skater yet and I don't know if he will get there. Speed is very difficult to improve. With Lily he clearly has some confidence issues but I have seen him skate with NHLers and he can keep up. But Sandin is so d*mn smart that I would take him over Lily in a flip.

I get from a lot of your posts that you are a big Dermott fan, I like Dermy a lot as well but I don't think we've always given him what's been best for his development, feels like he's really stagnated this last year and a half after playing incredible for the Marlies.
I think you're right that Dermott has probably is the best in "more skills" than others. But that being said, I still hold Sandin in a much higher regard, simply because his hockey IQ is not just the best of the three, it's off the charts. Like seriously, I am so excited about this player. Obviously he still gets burned sometimes, and we will need to wait a few more years for him to get his man-strength, but seriously this player's positioning, reads, and quick little adjustments are miles ahead of almost every player his age. Plus he just has a confidence and swagger, that quite frankly, Liljegren lacks (in his call-up, he looked terrified to be the one involved with the puck and deferred to his partner almost every time). I just think with such a good brain for the game, it's going to be way easier to pick up and translate the other skills he needs to work on. And yeah Dermott has a harder shot, but Sandin has shown a knack for just getting his light clapper through traffic and using it for rebounds/tips in an intelligent way.
I think I like Sandin > Dermott > Liljegren, but Lilly also plays a more important position for us right now so I really want him to prove me wrong and step up, but I just wouldn't bet on it.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I get from a lot of your posts that you are a big Dermott fan, I like Dermy a lot as well but I don't think we've always given him what's been best for his development, feels like he's really stagnated this last year and a half after playing incredible for the Marlies.
I think you're right that Dermott has probably is the best in "more skills" than others. But that being said, I still hold Sandin in a much higher regard, simply because his hockey IQ is not just the best of the three, it's off the charts. Like seriously, I am so excited about this player. Obviously he still gets burned sometimes, and we will need to wait a few more years for him to get his man-strength, but seriously this player's positioning, reads, and quick little adjustments are miles ahead of almost every player his age. Plus he just has a confidence and swagger, that quite frankly, Liljegren lacks (in his call-up, he looked terrified to be the one involved with the puck and deferred to his partner almost every time). I just think with such a good brain for the game, it's going to be way easier to pick up and translate the other skills he needs to work on. And yeah Dermott has a harder shot, but Sandin has shown a knack for just getting his light clapper through traffic and using it for rebounds/tips in an intelligent way.
I think I like Sandin > Dermott > Liljegren, but Lilly also plays a more important position for us right now so I really want him to prove me wrong and step up, but I just wouldn't bet on it.

Great post. My only caution to you is really smart hockey smart guys from da past have not turned out due to lack of foot speed. There is a very long list of guys who are uber smart with hockey sense who just could not keep up to game. Kids like Bracco and Strome are as hockey smart as they come but straight line speed is a major major factor. A little less so for defenders but game is a changin. I too think he will overcome it. If he gets it figured out then I too would put him above Dermy but at this point I can't.

 

[4thline]

I think I like Sandin > Dermott > Liljegren, but Lilly also plays a more important position for us right now so I really want him to prove me wrong and step up, but I just wouldn't bet on it.

Dermott is farther along, but Liljegren had a better U21. Tough to rank em.
But- the fact that we have all 3 to rank is absolutely huge, and I think people are sleeping on the combination because "logic" says that with the talent we drafted/developed up front there's no way we can have it on the back end.

Liljegren had one of the best U21 AHL seasons anyone has seen post 05 lockout. He's got all the tools to be an impactful two way defender. He compares well with the likes of Sanheim/Morrissey/Pulock/Theodore.

Dermott is a top 40 pick that was good enough for the Canadian WJC's, and has 157 NHL games played before his U25 season. He's shown the ability to absolutely crush sheltered minutes and to keep his head above water in shutdown minutes. Why can't he be a Lindell/Pelech?

Sandin was a straight up steal because of his lack of athleticism. His mind and skills are top notch, and his overall impact/ play would only have him a slight notch below Rielly as a prospect. If he can make up for what he's lacking physically or address it the sky is the limit.


It's going to take some maneuvering/luck to develop all 3 at the same time, but the future of our back end has the potential to be very very bright.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Great post. My only caution to you is really smart hockey smart guys from da past have not turned out due to lack of foot speed. There is a very long list of guys who are uber smart with hockey sense who just could not keep up to game. Kids like Bracco and Strome are as hockey smart as they come but straight line speed is a major major factor. A little less so for defenders but game is a changin. I too think he will overcome it. If he gets it figured out then I too would put him above Dermy but at this point I can't.

To be fair, his edges are really great though. He lacks straight-line speed for sure, but as an overall skater I prefer him to Strome (who isn't doing too bad in the NHL), and I think Bracco's straightaway foot speed is actually worse (and there are other reasons he's not going to cut it in the NHL).
Obviously, we will have to see, but in the NHL games we've seen Sandin play, sure there were a few times he got burned wide but I never thought his skating looked out of place, just on the weaker side (and again he was 19-20, still time to improve).

 

[stickty111]

Burke had him at number 1 internally, but other teams didn't and he was never a consensus top 3 pick... Apples to oranges.
Myself, I hope Liljegren pans out and am willing to give him more time, but I was not even remotely impressed during his call-up and can't for the life of me understand how some consider him to be on par or even above(!) Sandin.

Lilly outplayed Sandin this season in the AHL, and even made less mistakes then Sandin. I personally have them right right by each other, with Sandin perhaps having more upside.
He was fine in his call, just nervous.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Dermott is farther along, but Liljegren had a better U21. Tough to rank em.
But- the fact that we have all 3 to rank is absolutely huge, and I think people are sleeping on the combination because "logic" says that with the talent we drafted/developed up front there's no way we can have it on the back end.

Liljegren had one of the best U21 AHL seasons anyone has seen post 05 lockout. He's got all the tools to be an impactful two way defender. He compares well with the likes of Sanheim/Morrissey/Pulock/Theodore.

It's going to take some maneuvering/luck to develop all 3 at the same time, but the future of our back end has the potential to be very very bright.

I think that's quite subjective. Sure, Liljegren scored .1 more points per game than Dermott did in their D+3 seasons, but from my own observations when watching Marlies games, I always felt like Dermott had more impact overall and was just better involved in the play.
I disagree with that "logic". I was actually ecstatic when we picked Lilly at #17 and am obviously a huge Leafs homer, and am not one to complain about having multiple great players (eg. the silly Nylander vs. Marner back and forth).
That being said, Lilly did have a much better season than I was anticipating so I hope he continues to progress, as I've said, I don't think he has the brains and confidence to be an impact NHLer, but I'd be happy to eat crow if he does become just that. I just don't personally see it at this juncture.

 

[stickty111]

Yeah judging someone by interviews, and thinking he isn't smart, seems like a silly way to evaluate someone. Lilly is actually really well spoken in his interviews.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Lilly outplayed Sandin this season in the AHL, and even made less mistakes then Sandin. I personally have them right right by each other, with Sandin perhaps having more upside.
He was fine in his call, just nervous.

We all get that you love Lilly, but these things are subjective.
You and some others think he outplayed Sandin in the AHL this year.
Me and some others think Sandin outplayed Lilly in the AHL this year.
You think he's stronger defensively and was nervous.
I think he is far less involved in the play and lacks confidence/swagger.
Time will tell who is right. But no need to constantly police other people's posts in this thread with your subjective observations.

 

[stickty111]

I think that's quite subjective. Sure, Liljegren scored .1 more points per game than Dermott did in their D+3 seasons, but from my own observations when watching Marlies games, I always felt like Dermott had more impact overall and was just better involved in the play.
I disagree with that "logic". I was actually ecstatic when we picked Lilly at #17 and am obviously a huge Leafs homer, and am not one to complain about having multiple great players (eg. the silly Nylander vs. Marner back and forth).
That being said, Lilly did have a much better season than I was anticipating so I hope he continues to progress, as I've said, I don't think he has the brains and confidence to be an impact NHLer, but I'd be happy to eat crow if he does become just that. I just don't personally see it at this juncture.

Lilly's season this year was pretty much what Dermott had. They both played and dominated against tough competition.

 

[4thline]

I think that's quite subjective. Sure, Liljegren scored .1 more points per game than Dermott did in their D+3 seasons, but from my own observations when watching Marlies games, I always felt like Dermott had more impact overall and was just better involved in the play.
I disagree with that "logic". I was actually ecstatic when we picked Lilly at #17 and am obviously a huge Leafs homer, and am not one to complain about having multiple great players (eg. the silly Nylander vs. Marner back and forth).
That being said, Lilly did have a much better season than I was anticipating so I hope he continues to progress, as I've said, I don't think he has the brains and confidence to be an impact NHLer, but I'd be happy to eat crow if he does become just that. I just don't personally see it at this juncture.

I don't use draft year because of the late birthday rule, unless you think a tank like Dermott was phyisically underdeveloped coming out of the OHL it skews things to compare against players a full hockey season behind (U22 vs U21)

Lilly was night and day in the A vs the N this year. Confidence is definitely an issue that could hold him back, but if he figures it out all signs point to 2-3 upside, and anything less than a 4-5 would be a disappointment.

I don't agree with the "logic," hence the quotation marks. I think it's a subconscious and flawed application of probability. "It's very unlikely for one team to have 3 prospects as good as AM/MM/WN, therefore WN isn't as good. Or- All three are good, but one of them has to fail. Or- Sure they're good, but with 3 that good there's no way that Kapanen is anymore than a B prospect with limited upside, and Johnsson is just a run of the mill AHL scorer."

It's all nonsense of course, each of those players need to independently evaluated, just like Sandin/Dermott/Liljegren, and they all evaluate quite quite well. By no means guarantees, but definitely better than publicly accepted

 

[stickty111]

We all get that you love Lilly, but these things are subjective.
You and some others think he outplayed Sandin in the AHL this year.
Me and some others think Sandin outplayed Lilly in the AHL this year.
You think he's stronger defensively and was nervous.
I think he is far less involved in the play and lacks confidence/swagger.
Time will tell who is right. But no need to constantly police other people's posts in this thread with your subjective observations.

Don't accuse me of loving Lilly, when some of you guys do the same thing with Sandin. It works both ways.
Actually no it's not subjective. Watching Marlies games, and going by the experts in the NHL/AHL, would all say Lilly outplayed Sandin this season. Are you saying the every say experts are wrong too? Also you know who though Lilly was better this year? The Leafs did, as thats what Mckenzie said.

He was stronger defensively, and made far less mistakes then Sandin. Some of you seem to get upset pointing out Sandin's flaws.
I actually expect Sandin to take the giant leap defensively like Lilly did, but he isn't there right now.
My posts have been more then fair. Maybe read @mapleleaf979 posts and see what illogical is. I am going by facts, and some people have an issue with that.

 

[Big Muddy]

Next season on the right side, the Leafs only have Justin Holl as a sure thing, as Barrie and Ceci are both UFA's after this season. And given how cap-strapped the Leafs are there isn't much room to add a defenseman via free agency. Aside from Holl, the Leafs have also signed 26 year old Mikko Lehtonen, a highly sought after defenseman from Europe. .

Ya, this is the crux of the matter. Signing a more sure thing would require us getting rid of a couple of roster players, i.e., 2 of AJ/Kap/Dermott. We need Liljegren to step up.

 

[stickty111]

This is what Bob said.

Liljegren by the way, has had a better year than Sandin. If this was a right-shot D that went out, Liljegren would be in the line-up and Sandin would still be in the minors. Liljegren has been significantly better than Sandin over the course of the season. He's the next-man-up in terms of a longer-term assignment, unless Sandin comes up and picks up where he left off at the WJC and takes over.

Here is another quote.
Bob said " the funny thing was over the course of this season, organizationally it would be fair to say Leafs thought Liljegren was better then Sandin in the AHL. Now of course Sandin did well in the World Juniors, and got the quick call up, and has played really well here. I think the upside is higher for Sandin. By all accounts though, Liljegren has played really well with the Marlies. In terms of the pecking order, he was kind of perceived to be maybe ahead of Sandin, but they brought Sandin up because they needed a left shot D. He also has the untouchables are Liljegren, Sandin, Robertson and the big 4.

So this isn't just me saying it. The otganization also felt the same way

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Don't accuse me of loving Lilly, when some of you guys do the same thing with Sandin. It works both ways.
Actually no it's not subjective. Watching Marlies games, and going by the experts in the NHL/AHL, would all say Lilly outplayed Sandin this season. Are you saying the every say experts are wrong too? Also you know who though Lilly was better this year? The Leafs did, as thats what Mckenzie said.

He was stronger defensively, and made far less mistakes then Sandin. Some of you seem to get upset pointing out Sandin's flaws.
I actually expect Sandin to take the giant leap defensively like Lilly did, but he isn't there right now.
My posts have been more then fair. Maybe read @mapleleaf979 posts and see what illogical is. I am going by facts, and some people have an issue with that.

I do love Sandin, I would have no issues if someone "accused me" of that...
These are the same hockey experts who get things wrong ALL the time. Not to mention, appeal to authority is a very weak argument anyways.
The only one who seems upset here is you, I even acknowledged some of Sandin's flaws and then shared my (key-word) opinion on both players.
Anyways, my personal track-record of evaluating players has been far more successful throughout my life than listening to pundits, so I'm happy to believe in my own observations. Cheers.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

I don't agree with the "logic," hence the quotation marks. I think it's a subconscious and flawed application of probability. "It's very unlikely for one team to have 3 prospects as good as AM/MM/WN, therefore WN isn't as good. Or- All three are good, but one of them has to fail. Or- Sure they're good, but with 3 that good there's no way that Kapanen is anymore than a B prospect with limited upside, and Johnsson is just a run of the mill AHL scorer."

It's all nonsense of course, each of those players need to independently evaluated, just like Sandin/Dermott/Liljegren, and they all evaluate quite quite well. By no means guarantees, but definitely better than publicly accepted

Okay, but that doesn't really have anything to do with my post, nor is it something I think. I base all of my evaluations on what I see, has nothing to do with some subconscious flawed application of probability.
I agree, yes better than publicly accepted, but I mean if you're a Leafs fan you just kind of have to get used to that. Every other fan-base hates us, of course they are going to underrate our prospects.
I care more about a player's style in the AHL and how transferable I think their skill set is more than just their raw production. And I think using draft season is more accurate than a player's age, I mean with Dermott and Liljegren we're talking about a difference in 5 months. Liljegren is an actual physical tank himself and looks way older than his age, I don't think 5 months is really anything significant.