Prospect Info: Expectations for Timothy Liljegren in 2020-21

[mapleleaf979]

By no means do I think he is gonna be one of those guys, either in talent level or overall impact.
But he needs to continue to work on positioning, separating guys from the puck with his skating and stick, and to me there are few better to watch and learn that from than Neidermeyer and Lindstrom.

I do disagree on him being a 'Hainsey' type, because Hainsey eve when he was younger was not a good skater. Thats why I used the comparison to Stralman, about the same size and with similar limitations post draft.

Yes I agree with bolded. Sandin and Liljegren defensively are in the same sphere. I think Liljegren is for sure stronger but Sandin can read guys better all over the ice.

I think the Hainsey template is a good starting point. For sure, Liljegren is a better skater. With Liljegren's skating he can dial in his gap and pressure, he can win the race to get the puck on a dump in and move it to his d partner etc. I literally just do not see a player with poise and confidence, vision to be an NHL puck mover right now. If he forces that style of play , he wont make the NHL. Hainsey never tried to play like Morgan Reilly, it would be a disaster, so he stuck to his strengths.

I do think and u can see it when Liljegren's confidence is down and u can see him on the bench disappointed with himself. Its one of the things i really like about Liljegren, his honesty with his game and how hard he can be on himself. He is a player in the MLSE umbrella, i personally root for to make it to the NHL. I know he wants it bad but he cant be stubborn and force offensive things or go for a skate with the puck. I literally held my breath when Liljegren rushed the puck most times, he didnt seem to have a plan and had trouble controlling the puck at speed. If he can settle in to a simple role and game at first, then he can show some of his offensive side and pick his spots etc.

 

[TML1967]

Yes I agree with bolded. Sandin and Liljegren defensively are in the same sphere. I think Liljegren is for sure stronger but Sandin can read guys better all over the ice.

I think the Hainsey template is a good starting point. For sure, Liljegren is a better skater. With Liljegren's skating he can dial in his gap and pressure, he can win the race to get the puck on a dump in and move it to his d partner etc. I literally just do not see a player with poise and confidence, vision to be an NHL puck mover right now. If he forces that style of play , he wont make the NHL. Hainsey never tried to play like Morgan Reilly, it would be a disaster, so he stuck to his strengths.

I do think and u can see it when Liljegren's confidence is down and u can see him on the bench disappointed with himself. Its one of the things i really like about Liljegren, his honesty with his game and how hard he can be on himself. He is a player in the MLSE umbrella, i personally root for to make it to the NHL. I know he wants it bad but he cant be stubborn and force offensive things or go for a skate with the puck. I literally held my breath when Liljegren rushed the puck most times, he didnt seem to have a plan and had trouble controlling the puck at speed. If he can settle in to a simple role and game at first, then he can show some of his offensive side and pick his spots etc.

To me this points more than anything shows a need for a better veteran partner, like a Hainsey was to Reilly.

The issue being we are kind of set with LDH (Dermott, Sandin, Muzzin, Reilly). Unless one (or more) are moved, Liljgren's partner next year is likely to be either Dermott - who is a bit of a risk taker himself, or Sandin - a fellow young guy.
Too bad there isnt room for the Leafs to sign a veteran defensive defenceman to plant on the third pair and keep Liljgrens head and game going in the right direction.

 

[mapleleaf979]

To me this points more than anything shows a need for a better veteran partner, like a Hainsey was to Reilly.

The issue being we are kind of set with LDH (Dermott, Sandin, Muzzin, Reilly). Unless one (or more) are moved, Liljgren's partner next year is likely to be either Dermott - who is a bit of a risk taker himself, or Sandin - a fellow young guy.
Too bad there isnt room for the Leafs to sign a veteran defensive defenceman to plant on the third pair and keep Liljgrens head and game going in the right direction.

Yea agreed, a veteran would be ideal for Liljegren on the 3rd pair. Dermott and Sandin also need an experienced D partner. Pairing any of the young 3 defenseman together isnt a good idea. Dermott is still an enigma, some games he doesnt use his skating at all, seems confused reading the play and what to do. Dermott's focus imo is lacking at times, he is not engaged and at these times, it appears he lacks hockey sense. But when he is focused , he can make some very good, quick decisions. His skating is very good, great first 3 strides, he doesnt use that enough.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Yea agreed, a veteran would be ideal for Liljegren on the 3rd pair. Dermott and Sandin also need an experienced D partner. Pairing any of the young 3 defenseman together isnt a good idea. Dermott is still an enigma, some games he doesnt use his skating at all, seems confused reading the play and what to do. Dermott's focus imo is lacking at times, he is not engaged and at these times, it appears he lacks hockey sense. But when he is focused , he can make some very good, quick decisions. His skating is very good, great first 3 strides, he doesnt use that enough.

Most of issue is fans who do not fully appreciate how long it takes to learn intricacies of defense. Rielly will likely partner with dermy next year. Maybe Lily with Muzzy depending on his development or Holl. Then sandin with fellow Swede signee on 3rd pair likely or Holl. This is what is gonna happen due to COVID/CAP. Rielly and Muzz need to be great teachers. In hockey it is an apprentice sport for defenders. It has been and always will be.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I think Sandin is better but I’m really high on Sandin, more so than most.

 

[deletethis]

Most of issue is fans who do not fully appreciate how long it takes to learn intricacies of defense. Rielly will likely partner with dermy next year. Maybe Lily with Muzzy depending on his development or Holl. Then sandin with fellow Swede signee on 3rd pair likely or Holl. This is what is gonna happen due to COVID/CAP. Rielly and Muzz need to be great teachers. In hockey it is an apprentice sport for defenders. It has been and always will be.

Dubas might try that defense but it'd be a huge mistake.

That's a bottom feeder right side IMO:
1st pairing with a 2nd/3rd pairing left side defender playing out of position
2nd pairing with a rookie RHD
3rd pairing with a journeyman

One thing Rielly and Muzzin can't teach Dermott is how to do everything on the backhand.

P.S. Hainsey played a decade on bottom feeders learning how to play the right side before he became an NHL commodity on the right side.

 

[67Leafs67]

Still a lot of holes in his game, and his small stint in the NHL wasn't overly impressive. Still his track record as a young player at other levels indicates he should find his footing.

I'd hope he's able to play third pairing minutes and produce positive on-ice results with his partner. He's at his best in transition, but don't expect him to put up a huge amount of points, even when he fully develops. I'd love to see him take strides in his own zone though, because at this point he's pretty much useless in that regard.

 

[stickty111]

Still a lot of holes in his game, and his small stint in the NHL wasn't overly impressive. Still his track record as a young player at other levels indicates he should find his footing.

I'd hope he's able to play third pairing minutes and produce positive on-ice results with his partner. He's at his best in transition, but don't expect him to put up a huge amount of points, even when he fully develops. I'd love to see him take strides in his own zone though, because at this point he's pretty much useless in that regard.

All of this is pretty much wrong especially the bolded. You clearly haven't seen him play with the Marlies, or your judging by the NHL stint. Lets not say things that aren't fact, and evaluate him properly. The holes part is incorrect too.

 

[stickty111]

This is an article from when Lilly was called up.

Thanks to the other poster for mentioning this. Mitch Brown wrote a great article of Lilly is NHL ready. I will put in my own words.


Mitch said when Lilly was drafted, he was an offense first player with no defence. The turnaround since then has been amazing.
Lilly's best attributes are his decision making and defense. Lilly's off puck defence is terrific. He is aware of what's happening in the zone, and makes the right read on where the play is going. Lilly's on puck defence is also helpful to his team. He closes on players quickly which ends the play. He is also very good in loose puck recoveries. He takes routes to the puck that gives him escape options, while fighting for body position.

Lilly is above average in defending on the rush, but not quite as good as he is in the previous aspects. He is positionally strong and his mobility helps.
The issue with Lilly defending on the rush is that he gives too much respect to fast players. He backs into the zone and then tries to close the gap. While this will hurt him in the NHL at times, it's not a red flag or anything. He recovers well after getting beat.
His transition game remains a normal thing for him. He will make a bad pass at times but those are few and far between. Transitionally he is a huge positive to the team.
Lilly is always looking to get involved in the rush. Sometimes as the main player, but most of the time as a support player. He makes himself a passing while making the ice bigger. He looks for opportunities to help the attack.
His skating is a bit of a concern. He is fast to start, but top end speed is more average. However he makes up for it. When there is a chance to activate, he doesn't hesitate. This kind of commitment lessens the chances for a mistake. Lilly's habits make him faster. He passes without breaking a stride, and then continues that stride.
The second part to his transition game is his passing. His calling card are the stretch passes. The way he passes is interesting. He passes to where the player is going. His breakout passes makes the offense keep going. This kind of passing is also used when his team is in the middle of a rush. His backhand passing is almost as good.

In the offensive zone, his passing isn't as good as the other elements. He prefers to hang on to the puck and let his forwards set up. You can call his game conservative in the opposing zone for lack of a better word.

Mitch doesn't feel creating offense in the zone will be his stength, but his production this season indicates maybe it will. With that being said, Leafs don't a dynamic offensive generator, they need someone who compliments the offense with passing and defensive ability, and Lilly brings that.

In those aspects, Lilly is ready for the NHL. His transition game will easily translate, and his defensive game will also help.

 

[67Leafs67]

All of this is pretty much wrong especially the bolded. You clearly haven't seen him play with the Marlies, or your judging by the NHL stint. Lets not say things that aren't fact, and evaluate him properly. The holes part is incorrect too.

I'm talking about his NHL game. He's fantastic at an AHL level no doubt, but that doesn't necessarily translate to the NHL right away, and in the small sample of NHL it hasn't. I have no doubt it will, but this first little bit has been pretty rough. That's typical for young defenders though, so I'm not worried.

Not sure what, in that context, is wrong with what I said? So you're saying that:

- A player who had a 36.8% xGF, and 27.3% GF in sheltered third pairing usage doesn't have holes in his game
- That his NHL stint thus far is overly impressive
- You don't hope he can play third pairing minutes next season
- He isn't at his best in transition play
- You expect him to be a big point producing defenseman at the NHL level
- He hasn't been bad in his own zone

I agree that useless was definitely harsh, and a careless choice of word, but you're kidding yourself if you think that his natural in-zone defense abilities and IQ have translated into the pace of NHL play yet. I know he has the tools, because he's excelled there in the AHL, and taken massive strides in that regard, but he hasn't been impressive as of yet in his NHL games. Granted, it is only an 11 game sample size. All I'm saying is that I'm hopeful he can take those strides, and translate those aspects of his game, but that 11 game stint didn't show it in the NHL yet. All the tools are there, I just think he needs the time, and consistent ice time to orient himself to the NHL game, and take those strides.

Otherwise, I don't see the problem with the rest of what I said?

 

[stickty111]

I'm talking about his NHL game. He's fantastic at an AHL level no doubt, but that doesn't necessarily translate to the NHL right away, and in the small sample of NHL it hasn't. I have no doubt it will, but this first little taste has been pretty rough. That's typical for young defenders though, so I'm not worried.

Fair enough. Misundestood your post.

 

[67Leafs67]

Fair enough. Misundestood your post.

Haha no problem, I probably was a bit overzealous and careless in my word choice and explanation. I'm definitely a big believer in Liljegren, and have high hopes for him, I just know he can do better next season than what we've seen thus far in the NHL.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I will be watching to see if Keefe calls Liljigren over Ceci here.Yes i think he should. We should as fans want to see our prospect being built up. This is the time to throw Liljigren in the mix with some pressure.

 

[ACC1224]

I will be watching to see if Keefe calls Liljigren over Ceci here.Yes i think he should. We should as fans want to see our prospect being built up. This is the time to throw Liljigren in the mix with some pressure.

I don't think it's certain by any means that Ceci will be back next year.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I don't think it's certain by any means that Ceci will be back next year.

We really need the cap management our young guys can give us. They need to play but there is always that shame involved with keeping the bigger salary on the bench.
Right or wrong I’m not sure but i have confidence Liljigren won’t hurt us defensively if Keefe plays him now

 

[deletethis]

We really need the cap management our young guys can give us. They need to play but there is always that shame involved with keeping the bigger salary on the bench.
Right or wrong I’m not sure but i have confidence Liljigren won’t hurt us defensively if Keefe plays him now

Based on what? With sheltered minutes (54.1% Offensive zone starts, average 10mins/game) Liljegren had the worst CF% (44.2%) of any Leafs' defenseman (in at least 10 games) since 2014-15.

Ceci was 49.7% with 45.1% OZS and a much higher level of competition.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Based on what? With sheltered minutes (54.1% Offensive zone starts, average 10mins/game) Liljegren had the worst CF% (44.2%) of any Leafs' defenseman (in at least 10 games) since 2014-15.

Ceci was 49.7% with 45.1% OZS and a much higher level of competition.

Actually i just posted that off the cuff and likely he won’t be playing over Sandin anyways. That said, next season all of Dermott,Lilly and sandin playing should happen to get a grasp on this defense.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Based on what? With sheltered minutes (54.1% Offensive zone starts, average 10mins/game) Liljegren had the worst CF% (44.2%) of any Leafs' defenseman (in at least 10 games) since 2014-15.

Ceci was 49.7% with 45.1% OZS and a much higher level of competition.

If think that should hold weight on that small a sample size thats fine. I’m not going to hold that against him this early in the process

 

[deletethis]

If think that should hold weight on that small a sample size thats fine. I’m not going to hold that against him this early in the process

I'm certainly not giving up on him as a future mainstay on the defense. He's a very important prospect IMO (RHD are very valuable). The plan was never to play him regularly in the NHL in 2019-20 unless there were multiple injuries.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I think Timmy could step right into the play-ins and be a better option than Ceci.

 

[stickty111]

I think Timmy could step right into the play-ins and be a better option than Ceci.

I used to think that, but not right now. Ceci believe it or not is still needed on the team.

 

[ACC1224]

I think Timmy could step right into the play-ins and be a better option than Ceci.

I suppose stranger things have happened but that would have to be seen as a considerable long shot to occur.

 

[Menzinger]

I used to think that, but not right now. Ceci believe it or not is still needed on the team.

I think they will look for a cheaper version of Ceci. I suspect management likes him enough in the right rolw, but that 4ish mil aav price tag becomes harder to deal with under a flat cap.

I think Ceci will meed to accept a pay cut to stay a Leaf

 

[stickty111]

I think they will look for a cheaper version of Ceci. I suspect management likes him enough in the right rolw, but that 4ish mil aav price tag becomes harder to deal with under a flat cap.

I think Ceci will meed to accept a pay cut to stay a Leaf

I might take Ceci at half his amount right now. I don't think he makes over 4 in free agency.

 

[deletethis]

Today I'd offer Ceci 3 years @ $3M AAV front loaded. I'd shorten the term if he wants to. The Leafs ain't finding a defenseman of Ceci's modest performance without taking a big hit on the trade market or paying much higher on the open market.