Ellis contract and Jake Gardiner

[HoweHullOrr]

From what I have surmised, we can either lose Gardiner or Brown to possibly make the cap work in 19/20. So, were saying the cap could be an issue in 19/20. Seems different than what has been said many times before i.e., we have no cap issues.

The only quote people should be providing of mine with regards to the 2019/20 cap is that we can't determine what kinds of cap issues we might have until we know what the cap will actually look like next year. If it goes up to $83/84M next year, then we don't have any cap issues.

Any freaking out is certainly premature at this point.

If you feel more comfortable with the following statement, then OK: If the cap doesn't go up to the maximum extent (approx), we will have cap issues i.e., will lose either Brown or Gardiner.

Not sure anyone is freaking out. Figuring something out is different than freaking out.

The other point was that these conclusions are not consistent with what we often say at other times on the same subject. Just trying to get clarity along with a better, more accurate and complete understanding.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

We have no cap issues when it comes to signing the Big 3 (for approx. $25-26m). Re-signing Gardiner is where we start to run into problems.

Yes, understood .... and thanks btw.

 

[Canada4Gold]

First I've heard of anything like this. Could you elaborate?

The tag rule says you can't extend players into future seasons totalling more than the current cap, and doesn't factor in that we'll almost certainly be using LTIR on Horton. It's referred to as the tag rule because you essentially need expiring contracts to open up cap space to tag 1 for 1 with future raises on extensions already signed(though I think this is a bad way of looking at future cap space, just look directly at the future year and subtract from space available it's similar and less error prone)

I edited my post after looking at the numbers and with only 10 players signed for 2019/20 right now we'd likely be fine. We have 31.5 ish space on the 19/20 year with the current cap with Horton included because he counts for the tag rule. 11 for Matthews, 6.5 for Nylander, 7 for Marner and 6 for Gardiner adds to 30.5 so unless they get crazy high unexpected numbers you could do just those 4 and be ok with the tag rule. You might not be able to do Kapanen or Johnsson extensions until the offseason then though.

But if for example we resigned all those guys for those numbers except Gardiner, and Extended Johnsson for 5 x 3.1 and Kapanen for 3 x 2.1 in January you'd now be looking at 1.8 in 19/20 cap space and not be able to extend Gardiner until the season was over because of the tag rule even though the space would be there in theory with Horton LTIR and future cap raise(if we know by then) th tag rule prevents you from putting yourself in a position where you're over the cap for a future year before that offseason starts.

 

[therealkoho]

Meh. Until I see Zaitsev's improvement, I think Carrick should be starting the season beside Dermott on the 2nd pairing.

I like Carrick and i think he's good at what he does but it seems that at higher minutes his flaws get exposed maybe he's still growing, he still overplays pucks instead of giving them the Dman's best friend and that's the head high hard around. Hopefully Zaitsev is going to be healthy this year with no lingering effects of all the issues with lower leg, ankle and foot injuries, he played with lots of nicks that hurt his game which is using those smooth wheels, of course with Gardiner as a partner he is charged with staying home, which is not really his game. He and Dermott shared the ice more then a few times and looked pretty good I thought. If anybody has their time together stats available, post 'em

 

[Morgs]

I like Carrick and i think he's good at what he does but it seems that at higher minutes his flaws get exposed maybe he's still growing, he still overplays pucks instead of giving them the Dman's best friend and that's the head high hard around. Hopefully Zaitsev is going to be healthy this year with no lingering effects of all the issues with lower leg, ankle and foot injuries, he played with lots of nicks that hurt his game which is using those smooth wheels, of course with Gardiner as a partner he is charged with staying home, which is not really his game. He and Dermott shared the ice more then a few times and looked pretty good I thought. If anybody has their time together stats available, post 'em

Dermott & Carrick (2017-18)

rel.CF%: +7.44
rel.xGF%: +14.84

Just absolute domination together on the bottom pairing. I'd LOVE to see if they can do something even remotely similar in top-4 minutes.

Gardiner & Carrick (2016-17)

rel.CF%: +3.3
rel.xGF%: +2.77

Top-4 role mostly.

 

[IBeL34f]

If you feel more comfortable with the following statement, then OK: If the cap doesn't go up to the maximum extent (approx), we will have cap issues i.e., will lose either Brown or Gardiner.

Not sure anyone is freaking out. Figuring something out is different than freaking out.

The other point was that these conclusions are not consistent with what we often say at other times on the same subject. Just trying to get clarity along with a better, more accurate and complete understanding.

Nothing can be figured out, though, until we actually know where next year's cap sits (and what our RFAs are re-signing for).

People claiming that Nylanders, Kadris, Gardiners, Zaitsevs or Marleaus need to be traded within the next year (of which there have been many around here over the past few months) are not simply trying to figure anything out - They've already determined all they feel they need to, and would rather stress about it than wait and see how things play out.

Again, until we actually know where the cap is going to rest, there's not much point in fans focusing too hard on how all of the contracts are going to fit together. There's a solid chance that we legitimately have 0 cap issues next year, but there's no way at all for any of us to know for sure right now.

 

[Charles Chuck Finley]

With Gardiner coming off a 52 point season, his trade value is high for the right team. It would be stupid to let him walk away for nothing.

I would love for them to move Gardiner for Ryan Murray. Columbus improves offensively, Toronto improves defensively. Murray playing with Zaitsev would allow Z to skate and use his legs more. I think Holl will be the one paired with Dermott.

 

[Morgs]

With Gardiner coming off a 52 point season, his trade value is high for the right team. It would be stupid to let him walk away for nothing.

I would love for them to move Gardiner for Ryan Murray. Columbus improves offensively, Toronto improves defensively. Murray playing with Zaitsev would allow Z to skate and use his legs more. I think Holl will be the one paired with Dermott.

But Gardiner is way better than Murray defensively, and offensively. I added Jones/Weresnki for reference.

I don't hate the idea of trading Gardiner for a younger and more controllable player. Have to aim much much higher though.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I still think Gardiner for Myers makes sense for everyone. Dermott can playing as a number 4 is better than Hainsey playing so many minutes as essentially a number 2.

There is still the issue of re-signing Myers, but I think he'd go cheaper than Gardiner plus he at least fills a need for the next few seasons. Gardiner fills a need for this year and that's about it.

The money certainly would be tight, but not impossible to work out. The main thing is we'd have to shed some cap once more guys get off their ELC's. Mainly Marleau. Eventually one of Myers or Zaitsev too once more prospects are ready to come up.

 

[DarkKnight]

Dermott & Carrick (2017-18)

rel.CF%: +7.44
rel.xGF%: +14.84

Just absolute domination together on the bottom pairing. I'd LOVE to see if they can do something even remotely similar in top-4 minutes.

Gardiner & Carrick (2016-17)

rel.CF%: +3.3
rel.xGF%: +2.77

Top-4 role mostly.

I said it at the time, Dermott is such a stud he makes Carrick looks good.

 

[Morgs]

I said it at the time, Dermott is such a stud he makes Carrick looks good.

I think you meant to say Polak.

 

[DarkKnight]

I think you meant to say Polak.

Actually no. You know what I love about the Polak hate, while I agree he was bad, Carrick couldn't event beat him out for a job, that's how inconsistent and weak in his own end he was....and before you say it Dermott won a job, because he's actually good so there goes the "vet" theory.

 

[Morgs]

Actually no. You know what I love about the Polak hate, while I agree he was bad, Carrick couldn't event beat him out for a job, that's how inconsistent and weak in his own end he was....and before you say it Dermott won a job, because he's actually good.

Dermott is actually good. I said it before last season he was ready for a top-4 role. Carrick is great in a bottom-pairing role.

The reason Polak played instead of Carrick is because he penalty kills.

Quoting Babs' roster decisions doesn't exactly mean anything. Guy played Martin for 1.5 seasons. Komarov for .5 seasons too long, Polak, not Leivo, not Carrick, Hainsey way too hard a role, etc etc.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

1. Nothing can be figured out, though, until we actually know where next year's cap sits (and what our RFAs are re-signing for).

2. People claiming that Nylanders, Kadris, Gardiners, Zaitsevs or Marleaus need to be traded within the next year (of which there have been many around here over the past few months) are not simply trying to figure anything out - They've already determined all they feel they need to, and would rather stress about it than wait and see how things play out.

1. You can certainly figure out the range of possibilities. Maybe you prefer those words (underlined) rather than "figured out"?

2. Not sure what people you are referring to, but does it really matter? Some people just like to know the future situation, and what might happen, or what could be expected. I don't see any real harm or travesty in any of that. I think we are just discussing hockey, that's all.

 

[DarkKnight]

Dermott is actually good. I said it before last season he was ready for a top-4 role. Carrick is great in a bottom-pairing role.

The reason Polak played instead of Carrick is because he penalty kills.

Quoting Babs' roster decisions doesn't exactly mean anything. Guy played Martin for 1.5 seasons. Komarov for .5 seasons too long, Polak, not Leivo, not Carrick, Hainsey way too hard a role, etc etc.

Carrick is "great" in the press box, in case someone gets hurt.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Ellis didn't get a NTC/NMC or anything like that so if the leafs do the same with Jake and Dermott does make Gardiner expendable you can use him as expansion draft bait.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Dermott & Carrick (2017-18)

rel.CF%: +7.44
rel.xGF%: +14.84

Just absolute domination together on the bottom pairing. I'd LOVE to see if they can do something even remotely similar in top-4 minutes.

Gardiner & Carrick (2016-17)

rel.CF%: +3.3
rel.xGF%: +2.77

Top-4 role mostly.

Problem is Carrick has recieved some of the highest levels of sheltering last year in the entire league from what i have seen (both zone usage and QoC) so I wouldn't be hopefully that pairing could keep their head above water in top 4 usage.

Carrick started almost 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone while the 2nd pairing spent on average like 47% in the offensive while also playing with the Matthews line all the time. Would not be close to comfortable with Dermott and Carrick taking over that assignment.

Dermott and Zaitsev I think would be a fine 2nd pairing though.

 

[Duke Silver]

Ellis didn't get a NTC/NMC or anything like that so if the leafs do the same with Jake and Dermott does make Gardiner expendable you can use him as expansion draft bait.

I fail to see how this is a good thing. We'd be losing him for nothing then, just as if we didn't trade him and let him walk next summer.

 

[IBeL34f]

I still think Gardiner for Myers makes sense for everyone. Dermott can playing as a number 4 is better than Hainsey playing so many minutes as essentially a number 2.

There is still the issue of re-signing Myers, but I think he'd go cheaper than Gardiner plus he at least fills a need for the next few seasons. Gardiner fills a need for this year and that's about it.

The money certainly would be tight, but not impossible to work out. The main thing is we'd have to shed some cap once more guys get off their ELC's. Mainly Marleau. Eventually one of Myers or Zaitsev too once more prospects are ready to come up.

I think Gardiner's better than Myers to the point that Winnipeg would need to add something decent for the value to work out, but the decline in talent on D (not to mention his injury history) wouldn't make sense for us.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I fail to see how this is a good thing. We'd be losing him for nothing then, just as if we didn't trade him and let him walk next summer.

We would get an extra couple years of Gardiner I believe (Forget exactly when the next expansion draft will be) which is a good thing. It would give the leafs time to move Dermott into the top 4 and see if he can take Jake's role I.e. leading the team in ATOI at even strength and doing a damm good job of it.

Your going to have to give up a good player in the expansion draft anyways so if it provides you a little cap relief and your getting rid of an abundant player if Dermott is ready then I think that is a good thing. Could also front load the contract in real dollars to make it more attractive.

 

[Duke Silver]

We would get an extra couple years of Gardiner I believe (Forget exactly when the next expansion draft will be) which is a good thing. It would give the leafs time to move Dermott into the top 4 and see if he can take Jake's role I.e. leading the team in ATOI at even strength and doing a damm good job of it.

Your going to have to give up a good player in the expansion draft anyways so if it provides you a little cap relief and your getting rid of an abundant player if Dermott is ready then I think that is a good thing. Could also front load the contract in real dollars to make it more attractive.

I still don't understand how we afford him. What are your salary assumptions for the Big 3, Johnsson, Kapanen and Gardiner? And where do you see the cap in 19-20?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I still don't understand how we afford him. What are your salary assumptions for the Big 3, Johnsson, Kapanen and Gardiner? And where do you see the cap in 19-20?

I mean you would only be adding 2 million AAV into Gardiners current contract so not that much of an increase. Then you have Hainsey leaving which would easily cover that increase and then some.

I think you will see AJ and Kap given like 2-3 year deals with low AAV similar to brown so that should only be a another 2-3 million for those guys.

Matthews at 10.5 x 8
Marner depends if he signs this summer or next so can't really predict well.
Nylander like 6.75 for 8 years or like 5ish million for 3 years or something.

I don't want to go through all the math as I'm really lazy right now and all I do at work is math things lol but I have seen countless lineups with the big 3 signed, JT and a resigned Gardiner. I know that doesn't count for much but Gardiner would only cost like 2 million dollars more so I think the leafs could fit that to keep one of their best defenders. Other lesser players like Brown unfortunately may have to be let go.

 

[PromisedLand]

What’s with all the Zaitsev bashing. He was good his first season; last season he had a flu and then broken foot (I think) it was a lower body injury.

Then when he got back he just wasn’t the same. I wouldn’t write him off yet

 

[IBeL34f]

1. You can certainly figure out the range of possibilities. Maybe you prefer those words (underlined) rather than "figured out"?

2. Not sure what people you are referring to, but does it really matter? Some people just like to know the future situation, and what might happen, or what could be expected. I don't see any real harm or travesty in any of that. I think we are just discussing hockey, that's all.

1. Sure - That's a pretty damn broad range, though (We have no way of knowing for sure where the cap will sit - likely somewhere between $79.5-84.5M, which makes a world of difference to the conversation; Nylander/Matthews/Marner contract terms play a huge role, obviously - are they making a combined $22M or $25M? - as would Gardiner's; We have no idea what trades/signings might happen in the meantime, or which kids are going to step up big this year - Will Johnsson and Kapanen turn themselves into multi-million dollar players? Is Liljegren ahead of his expected curve?) so the best thing to do - in my opinion, at least - is to keep a very open mind.

2. No, it doesn't really matter, but it's killin' my buzz, man. I'm glad you're unfamiliar with the kinds of people I'm talking about - I like your optimism (that's not sarcasm, I really mean it) but if they were just looking for answers, then they'd be asking questions. They are not.

 

[Trapper]

What’s with all the Zaitsev bashing. He was good his first season; last season he had a flu and then broken foot (I think) it was a lower body injury.

Then when he got back he just wasn’t the same. I wouldn’t write him off yet

I don’t think anyone is writing him off but I’m not handing him undisputed top 4 either. For me he has to prove it again. It’s best 2 out of 3 time.
At present we have a 37 year old Hainsey, polar opposite Zaitsev, sporadically used Carrick and unknown Oz. I’d hate to be stopped on a roll achieving something really good because we got badly exposed in that area.
For sure he can rebound. We need him too.