Ellis contract and Jake Gardiner

[Darcy Tucker]

A few? Let's not minimize things.

The guy is 28 years old with ~500 games to his name and still has massive holes in his game. I'm not looking forward to paying him $6m a year from age 29-35.

Yes a few. Every offensive dmen make mistakes. He has great advanced stats and he puts up points. Fast and he is a great passer. He can improve his mental mistakes. You can't teach speed and nailing stretch passes. We can resign Gardiner for 5.5-6 per season and we should.

 

[zeke]

I'd rather put the money towards a legit top-pair guy but that might not be possible, so I dunno.

 

[Duke Silver]

With a looming expansion draft, it's actually possible.

Like I said, though, if it doesn't go up that high, you lose a depth winger like Brown and move on.

The expansion draft might not even be until after 19-20.

The cap overage will also be more than Brown's salary.

Here's what I foresee:

• Looming cap issues in 19-20
• We CAN get the Big 3 signed, but not Big 3 + Gardiner
• A big gap on the right side that will continue unaddressed if we sign Gardiner
• A suitable replacement on the left side (Dermott) who will continue to be under-utilized in a 3rd-pairing role if we sign Gardiner
• Gardiner turns 29 before 19-20 and a 6-year deal would take him to 35.

 

[Duke Silver]

Yes a few. Every offensive dmen make mistakes. He has great advanced stats and he puts up points. Fast and he is a great passer. He can improve his mental mistakes. You can't teach speed and nailing stretch passes. We can resign Gardiner for 5.5-6 per season and we should.

An above average amount. Not a few. Saying that every defenceman makes mistakes is excusatory behaviour.

At this point in his career, Gardiner is what he is. If he hasn't shown the ability to learn from his mistakes at this point in his career, he will continue to repeat them.

What is your plan for the right side of our defence if we sign Gardiner for $5.5m-$6m per season?

 

[IBeL34f]

He's already more defensively reliable.

A few miscues? Let's not minimize things. The guy is 28 years old with ~500 games to his name and still has massive holes in his game. I'm not looking forward to paying him $6m a year from age 29-35, especially when we have suitable replacement on the left hand side and massive gaps on the right side.

Dermott's usage is ridiculously limited compared to Gardiner - making comparisons is way too difficult with the sample sizes and information we have available to us at this point.

Dermott looks great so far, and you hope he can step into Gardiner's current role within the next year or two, but it could be a big mistake to bank on that before he's actually ready.

Re-sign Gardiner, move on from Brownie in 19/20 if the cap doesn't move much, and look to trade Gardiner only if you know you can comfortably replace him internally, or if you're getting his replacement back in the deal. Just because we re-sign him doesn't mean we can't look to move him later.

 

[Duke Silver]

Dermott's usage is ridiculously limited compared to Gardiner - making comparisons is way too difficult with the sample sizes and information we have available to us at this point.

Dermott looks great so far, and you hope he can step into Gardiner's current role within the next year or two, but it could be a big mistake to bank on that before he's actually ready.

Re-sign Gardiner, move on from Brownie in 19/20 if the cap doesn't move much, and look to trade Gardiner only if you know you can comfortably replace him internally, or if you're getting his replacement back in the deal. Just because we re-sign him doesn't mean we can't look to move him later.

Same question to you: What is your plan for the right side of our defence if we sign Gardiner for $5.5m-$6m per season?

 

[IBeL34f]

The expansion draft might not even be until after 19-20.

The cap overage will also be more than Brown's salary.

Here's what I foresee:

• Looming cap issues in 19-20
• We CAN get the Big 3 signed, but not Big 3 + Gardiner
• A big gap on the right side that will continue unaddressed if we sign Gardiner
• A suitable replacement on the left side (Dermott) who will continue to be under-utilized in a 3rd-pairing role if we sign Gardiner
• Gardiner turns 29 before 19-20 and a 6-year deal would take him to 35.

You have no idea if the bolded statement is true at all - concerning ourselves with this kind of minutiae will feel like a pretty big waste of time to me until we know what the actual numbers that we're dealing with are.

 

[IBeL34f]

Same question to you: What is your plan for the right side of our defence if we sign Gardiner for $5.5m-$6m per season?

Already answered in my first post in the thread.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

Same question to you: What is your plan for the right side of our defence if we sign Gardiner for $5.5m-$6m per season?

Hainsey Z and Carrick or Holl looks good enough for a year or two. With such a good left side our right just needs to be adequate and Hainsey is great on the Pk and Zaitsev has potential to rebound and have a better season. Carrick or Holl doesn't really matter... As long as it's not Polak we will be fine. I like Carricks game he is feisty and has decent speed and hands. Sure an amazing RHD would help .But its not an emergency. Our D will be just fine imo.

 

[IPS]

An above average amount. Not a few. Saying that every defenceman makes mistakes is excusatory behaviour.

At this point in his career, Gardiner is what he is. If he hasn't shown the ability to learn from his mistakes at this point in his career, he will continue to repeat them.

What is your plan for the right side of our defence if we sign Gardiner for $5.5m-$6m per season?

He's terrified of physical contact. He's always been that way and ~500 games into his career why would it ever change? His fear of contact is responsible for the majority of defensive mistakes. Look, if we had a big, mean, punishing RHD to pair with Gardiner, I imagine it would be a little better. But we don't, and we already have a lot of what Gardiner provides specifically on LHD.

After reading several detailed analytical assessments of Gardiner I'm on the trade him bandwagon. I have a feeling we're gonna keep him the final year and let him walk though.

 

[Morgs]

This is very good news for Leaf fans. There's very little reason to believe that Gardiner should be able to get more than this on a long-term deal.

 

[Morgs]

Those advocating for us to sign Gardiner to around $6m per year.... how does this work with the 19-20 cap? Assuming it goes up by say $2m to $81.5m?

Because I can't make it work.

Zaitsev, Marleau, Brown should all be relatively easy to move contracts.

 

[ashs]

If we can't trade Jake for a rhd why not trade for a quality forward. Then trade a couple pieces for the stud rhd..

 

[Morgs]

I'd rather put the money towards a legit top-pair guy but that might not be possible, so I dunno.

Agreed, but unless we're spending Nylander/Marner I find it tough to believe a legit top-pairing guy is going to fall in our laps.

I'd much prefer to see what Gardiner-Rielly can do on the top pair, and go from there.

 

[Morgs]

If we can't trade Jake for a rhd why not trade for a quality forward. Then trade a couple pieces for the stud rhd..

EZ PZ.

Gardiner for Panarin

Brown, Nielsen+ 2nd for Parayko.

 

[ACC1224]

Zaitsev, Marleau, Brown should all be relatively easy to move contracts.

Agreed with the exception of Marleau and Zaitsev.

 

[Duke Silver]

Already answered in my first post in the thread.

Moving Rielly to his off-side? Doesn't seem like a Babcock move.

 

[Notsince67]

Yes a few. Every offensive dmen make mistakes. He has great advanced stats and he puts up points. Fast and he is a great passer. He can improve his mental mistakes. You can't teach speed and nailing stretch passes. We can resign Gardiner for 5.5-6 per season and we should.

The biggest problem I see is zone entry defense with 2 on 1. He is actually amazing on 1 on 1. That is something that can be fixed

 

[Morgs]

Agreed with the exception of Marleau and Zaitsev.

With the rumours around Cody Ceci for years (Taylor Hall especially), I have a very hard time believing that most GM's have any idea how to evaluate defenseman.

I bet that not only is it not a "minus" contract, but a team would actually give us something for him.

Just my opinon though.

 

[IBeL34f]

Moving Rielly to his off-side? Doesn't seem like a Babcock move.

Don't see why it would be any different than playing Hainsey on the right side.

 

[Leafsman]

Ellis didn't insist on a NTC or a NMC. I would say you should be able to sign Gardiner with a limited-NMC for <$6M. I think the going rate for a limited NMC is about $500k/season minimum.

 

[ACC1224]

With the rumours around Cody Ceci for years (Taylor Hall), I have a very hard time believing that most GM's have any idea how to evaluate defenseman.

I bet that not only is it not a "minus" contract, but a team would actually give us something for him.

Just my opinon though.

Referring to the NMC for Marleau and the NTC for Zaitsev.

 

[Morgs]

Moving Rielly to his off-side? Doesn't seem like a Babcock move.

Toronto Maple Leafs Should Partner Rielly and Gardiner

Well Babs needs to look at their stats together, and re-evaluate.

 

[IBeL34f]

With the rumours around Cody Ceci for years (Taylor Hall), I have a very hard time believing that most GM's have any idea how to evaluate defenseman.

I bet that not only is it not a "minus" contract, but a team would actually give us something for him.

Just my opinon though.

Hopefully Zaitsev's contract is one we won't want to move after the puck drops. He's already bounced back (statistically, at least) he just needs to carry it over into a new year in order for people to forget about the clusterf*** that was his last season.

 

[Duke Silver]

Hainsey Z and Carrick or Holl looks good enough for a year or two. With such a good left side our right just needs to be adequate and Hainsey is great on the Pk and Zaitsev has potential to rebound and have a better season. Carrick or Holl doesn't really matter... As long as it's not Polak we will be fine. I like Carricks game he is feisty and has decent speed and hands. Sure an amazing RHD would help .But its not an emergency. Our D will be just fine imo.

Hainsey was run into the ground last season and his game went off a cliff after February.

I too hope that Zaitsev can rebound, but my expectations are currently low.

Babcock clearly has issues trusting Carrick and Holl has 2 NHL games to his name (and I'm a Holl fan).

The Bruins were able to expose our D on two fronts last year: through physicality against our softer dmen and by attacking the right side. This will continue to be a deficiency if we only tinker with changes.