Ellis contract and Jake Gardiner

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Kamiccolo

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Aug 30, 2011
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Ellis just took 8 years 6.25 AAV and I think that sets the ceiling for Gardiner's next deal at the moment. This is assuming he WANTS to stay a Leaf and doesn't want to chase a paycheck as a UFA in a year. By all accounts he loves playing here so it's possible a deal can be reached around 6m AAV maybe even a bit less (a matching Rielly deal?) in the next month before training camp.

IMO it is imperative he gets signed to a long term deal. He is our 2nd best D, and Nashville has shown us you can never have too stacked of a D core and it means Dermott will likely have to move over to the right side, which MAY already be the plan, to play him with Rielly there.

If that is the case, it means that if Zaitsev rebounds that is a very solid top 4 going forward with tons of cheap quality pieces coming behind them.
 

Kamiccolo

Truly wonderful, the mind of a child is.
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It's imperative they either re-sign him or trade him. None of this walking at the end of the year business

Yup. Make up your mind now because at the deadline with the team possible being a top 5 team there is no way they will be moving a top 4 D, likely for futures due to the cap. So he will walk by that point. You also don't want to take morale away from the room.

They need to sign him IMO and if he says he wants to be paid move him.
 
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PromisedLand

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It's imperative they either re-sign him or trade him. None of this walking at the end of the year business

under normal circumstances I would agree with this but we are in a "special case" this upcoming season.

  • This is the last year for Matthews, Marner and Kapanen ELCs
  • We upgraded our center position SIGNIFICANTLY in Tavares
  • There is no asset available internally to replace Gardiner's mins and position
  • Trading Gardiner may not fetch anything of equal value as he is a pending UFA
  • And this is the year that Leafs should really go all in to make that deep run with (ELC contracts, cap etc...) this year

Based on all of the above I guess Gardiner is either re-signed or he walks as a UFA
 

rent free

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i'd like him to be traded but that seems unlikely. re-signing him seems unlikely as well, so i think he walks at the end of the season.
 

Erndog

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Jul 17, 2007
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In order of probability I would say:

1) They let him walk at end of season
2) They extend him
3) They trade him

I really can not see #3 happening. Though I think #1 is the most likely, I think it is also the silliest. Either trade or extend. Please do not lose another valuable asset for nothing.
 

mapleleaf979

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Jan 14, 2012
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Trade the second best defenseman with no viable replacement.

Morgan Reilly is a Top 4 left side defenseman and signed for the next 4 years. Dermott and Gardiner are not bottom pair, 5th-6th defenseman. So one of them must be moved. Gardiner is borderline all star offensively, his defensive mistakes at crucial moments, make him untrustable in the most important moments of a game. Dermott can be a Top 4 defenseman this year. Dermott's upside and potential to mold him into something from my view will make him a better defenseman than Gardiner. Dermott may never put up 51 points in a year but that does not matter as Dermott will make better decisions consistently and be better in his own end than Gardiner. Dermott makes Gardiner expendable for those reasons. Gardiner will make 6 million after this season, Dermott with still be at 925k and Dermott will re-sign for under 6 million when his entry deal is up.
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
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Morgan Reilly is a Top 4 left side defenseman and signed for the next 4 years. Dermott and Gardiner are not bottom pair, 5th-6th defenseman. So one of them must be moved. Gardiner is borderline all star offensively, his defensive mistakes at crucial moments, make him untrustable in the most important moments of a game. Dermott can be a Top 4 defenseman this year. Dermott's upside and potential to mold him into something from my view will make him a better defenseman than Gardiner. Dermott may never put up 51 points in a year but that does not matter as Dermott will make better decisions consistently and be better in his own end than Gardiner. Dermott makes Gardiner expendable for those reasons. Gardiner will make 6 million after this season, Dermott with still be at 925k and Dermott will re-sign for under 6 million when his entry deal is up.
It'd certainly suck to have too many good defensemen on the left side.
 
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Goleafsgo95

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Jan 12, 2018
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Package Gardiner with a 1st and Kapanen/Brown/Johnsson for the best RHD you can get. We have enough offense overall that Gardiner is redundant and is more of a risk than anything on a less-than-stellar backend where he can't be sheltered.

We do not need a stacked D-core. We need a stable one. Rielly, Dermott, and whoever wins the 3rd LHD slot is good enough. We are not resigning him so use him to solve the RHD slot as Dermott can replace Gardiner.
 

Notsince67

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Apr 27, 2018
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Morgan Reilly is a Top 4 left side defenseman and signed for the next 4 years. Dermott and Gardiner are not bottom pair, 5th-6th defenseman. So one of them must be moved. Gardiner is borderline all star offensively, his defensive mistakes at crucial moments, make him untrustable in the most important moments of a game. Dermott can be a Top 4 defenseman this year. Dermott's upside and potential to mold him into something from my view will make him a better defenseman than Gardiner. Dermott may never put up 51 points in a year but that does not matter as Dermott will make better decisions consistently and be better in his own end than Gardiner. Dermott makes Gardiner expendable for those reasons. Gardiner will make 6 million after this season, Dermott with still be at 925k and Dermott will re-sign for under 6 million when his entry deal is up.
Do you care about possession exits because it is one of the most important things for a defenseman
From: Transitional Playing Styles of NHL Defensemen
DXf_pUGWzljmC2NaHs5oYR5fUMUgpwkL6kySKn5woA1nH8vMn5Bppf3S_Nlaqk7Q9E-T1EN36Bn6-ykt1eLBnmstDkfplB-HfNOJIvYX_t46ZUy66w9XW15ERkDDkRwjLrzxySVdBvZutIOakw
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
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It'd certainly suck to have too many good defensemen on the left side.
Defense does not get better by eliminating one of the few players that are above average. There is not a single right handed guy that can move the puck. I suspect one pairing will completely be a gaping hole in the defense if we move Gardiner out
 
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Darcy Tucker

My Name is Bob
Mar 23, 2008
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Package Gardiner with a 1st and Kapanen/Brown/Johnsson for the best RHD you can get. We have enough offense overall that Gardiner is redundant and is more of a risk than anything on a less-than-stellar backend where he can't be sheltered.

We do not need a stacked D-core. We need a stable one. Rielly, Dermott, and whoever wins the 3rd LHD slot is good enough. We are not resigning him so use him to solve the RHD slot as Dermott can replace Gardiner.

I'd rather keep those 3 forwards and Gardiner to be honest. Hainsey and Zaitsev can hold the fort until we develop our own RHD.
 
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Duke Silver

Truce?
Jun 4, 2008
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Those advocating for us to sign Gardiner to around $6m per year.... how does this work with the 19-20 cap? Assuming it goes up by say $2m to $81.5m?

Because I can't make it work.
 

IBeL34f

Lilly-grin
Jun 3, 2010
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At this point I'd be looking to re-sign Gardiner (~$6M or less for 6-7 years should be doable, after seeing that Ellis contract), and then try to move him once Liljegren has earned his top-4 role.

In the meantime, shift Rielly to the right side and run a blueline like this for this year to balance out our personnel:
Gardiner - Rielly
Hainsey - Zaitsev
Dermott - Carrick
 

Battle Lin

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Dec 18, 2015
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after signing our young RFAs we have like 10mill, maybe 15 max, to sign our 4th D, 5, 6 and 7th D, a back up goalie, 4c, 12th and a 13th forward next summer

13 forwards, 7 D, 2 goalies...man we still need to sign 8 of our 22 man roster...we running alil low on spending money
 
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IBeL34f

Lilly-grin
Jun 3, 2010
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Those advocating for us to sign Gardiner to around $6m per year.... how does this work with the 19-20 cap? Assuming it goes up by say $2m to $81.5m?

Because I can't make it work.
If the cap only goes up that high, you end up losing a Brown next year. (Much better to lose your #4RW than your #2D.)

Hopefully, we see another ~$5M increase, though, and we can keep everybody through the 19/20 cap crunch.
 

Duke Silver

Truce?
Jun 4, 2008
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If the cap only goes up that high, you end up losing a Brown next year.

Hopefully, we see another ~$5M increase and we can keep everybody through the 19/20 cap crunch.

We can't keep banking on $5m increases. Especially with a labour dispute on the horizon and the players using the cap inflator as leverage.
 

IBeL34f

Lilly-grin
Jun 3, 2010
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We can't keep banking on $5m increases. Especially with a labour dispute on the horizon and the players using the cap inflator as leverage.
With a looming expansion draft, it's actually possible.

Like I said, though, if it doesn't go up that high, you lose a depth winger like Brown and move on.
 

Duke Silver

Truce?
Jun 4, 2008
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He's not as good as Gardiner yet. People just like to hate on him. Whipping boy for a few miscues...

He's already more defensively reliable.

A few miscues? Let's not minimize things. The guy is 28 years old with ~500 games to his name and still has massive holes in his game. I'm not looking forward to paying him $6m a year from age 29-35, especially when we have suitable replacement on the left hand side and massive gaps on the right side.
 
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