GDT: ECQF 3: FLYERS (a) vs. Canadiens (h) at Toronto, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2020, 8:00 pm ET

[flyerslducks]

i have a bad feeling that tk isn't going to play...ghost is going to sit for hagg...raffl is going to play for farabe.....****

 

[flyerslducks]

also, whenever lindbom is out of quarantine and able to join the team, if I was AV, I would let him skate in the warmups to give the team a boost. I think that would really help

 

[flyerslducks]

if tk is out and frost is not coming in....spread the wealth:

g-couts-voracek
farabee-hayes-nak
jvr-laughton-pitlick
raffl-grant-bunnaman

i know the bottom 6 still isn't great but at least they are going to work hard.

if tk can:

farabee-couts-voracek
jvr-g-tk
laughton-hayes-pitlick
raffl-grant-nak

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Laughton has to be moving back to 3C. The guys is a good winger but isn't a difference maker that has to be played at wing and can't be replaced. The net effect on the team of him at 3C and another it stepping into 2LW is much more important as 3C is a glaring hole.

Couts is great, I see no flaws in the line up.the cup should be a lock.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

If they go by last game habs top9 should be
Tatar Suzuki Gallagher
Domi Kotkaniemi Drouin
Byron Danault Lehkonen

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Everyone stop caring if we win. Don't question the coaches. Don't care about the lineup. Everything comes down to the top players and if we lose it's all their fault. No other roster spot matters. Stop worrying about other players mistakes. They don't play enough to matter. Mistakes don't matter. Nothing matters.

Oh, by the way, we absolutely can NOT put a rookie in the lineup because the coach doesn't like him. He might make a mistake in his limited icetime and we absolutely can't risk that.

This seems spiteful. Almost as if you are saying McDavid isn't at fault Edmonton lost in RR? Blasphemy.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Since people keep wanting to go on and on about the playoff goal totals, I checked to see if Giroux's stats match the eye test right now, which says he's playing well and creating chances, but just hasn't had any luck yet. Poor guy hit 3 posts in a 3 game stretch...

In his playoff career:

Year (games)	shots on net/60 (5v5)	individual shot attempts/60 (5v5)	individual expected goals/60 (5v5)
2008-2009 (6)	6.66	15.82	0.76
2009-2010 (23)	6.67	11.04	0.56
2010-2011 (11)	5.79	12.30	0.42
2011-2012 (10)	6.68	14.16	0.46
2013-2014 (7)	6.42	14.59	0.61
2015-2016 (6)	4.45	8.90	0.30
2017-2018 (6)	6.24	14.83	0.57
2019-2020 (5)	7.16	11.25	0.54

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Red = injured

So he's still getting chances like the rest of his career, but just no luck so far. Even if you aren't big into stats, just look at the consistency of them (with the exception of the series where he was playing injured and needed surgery). There's a reason for that.

Sometimes dry spells just happen in tiny sample sizes. Obviously you don't get credit for almost scoring a goal, but it shows that his individual quality of play isn't the problem and he's doing what's within his power to generate offense. It just doesn't always end with a goal. It also shows that if he continues to play, the goals will come. There's an undeniable element of chance/luck involved in this sport and someone as good as Giroux isn't going to continue to shoot 0%. Even players who are indisputably far worse don't shoot 0%, so you know it's unsustainable.

On top of all this, people need to remember that Giroux is not primarily a goal scorer. He's a top tier passer/playmaker, who sets other people up to score, more than anything else. He's still setting people up, they're just not finishing right now and he also has zero control over that. People did the same thing during the regular season... they got worked up over a lack of points during early 2020, said he was invisible/slow/old/etc, ignored context explaining the lack of scoring, and what happened? He started scoring again and ended with 22 points in the last 23 regular season games.

I'm pretty sure in 15-16 G was injured and for a passer like him you ought to do shot contributions not attempts. And maybe throw in overall PP numbers for context. That 2014 run was basically on a back of special teams and outscoring Emery's sv% from what I recall. Just by a quick look it seems that we are losing special teams battle even in a worse way than any series going back to 2012 playoffs. I blame Therrien and Yeo.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

We can also go back to the Pittsburgh Cups where young depth was vital to their win, if you'd like.


It's weird that you insist these depth players don't matter, and then turn around and act like it's deeply important that only this set group plays. If it doesn't matter, then it makes no difference if Frost starts getting time.

That's a bit different though, just like Cooper who leaned on the guys he won Calder cup with when he stepped in as bolts HC with Palat, Johnson, Kucherov and so on. Sullivan has done the same with sheary and rust. I doubt Vigneault has payed attention to Phantoms at all and when Gordon got the gig last year was too dense to even play his safest player in NAK and instead not only gave us Hagg and Gudas but stapled them to our top line for good measure.

Now that honor goes to JVR whose 4 most common linemates are Grant, NAK, Thompson and Pitlick. That's Voracek and wonder twins 2.0

 

[TheKingPin]

Embarrassing loss and got your future stud goalie pulled. Time to step it up on National TV. Sunday Night Football slot. Biggest game in close to a decade. So much motivation!

Same as it always was:

Play hard in your zone and win races to the puck and buck battles. Disrupt their shit and get turnovers. Leads to offense with any forecheck at all would be great. Going to the net and get post first chances.

I don’t care if McDavid was in last game, we still lose. Frost and Ghost are a plus but they all need to play better and differently to win. This MTL team is not a cup contender. Take em out.

 

[Chinatown88]

Let's f***ing go!

 

[GKJ]

It’s time for the veteran players here to put the puck in the net. It’s their legacies on the line here.

 

[DancingPanther]

This time will be better.

 

[BiggE]

This time will be better.

It’s getting better all the time

(it can’t get no worse)

 

[deadhead]

That's a bit different though, just like Cooper who leaned on the guys he won Calder cup with when he stepped in as bolts HC with Palat, Johnson, Kucherov and so on. Sullivan has done the same with sheary and rust. I doubt Vigneault has payed attention to Phantoms at all and when Gordon got the gig last year was too dense to even play his safest player in NAK and instead not only gave us Hagg and Gudas but stapled them to our top line for good measure.

Now that honor goes to JVR whose 4 most common linemates are Grant, NAK, Thompson and Pitlick. That's Voracek and wonder twins 2.0

Cooper had a very young team when he took over TB, but they weren't 20 year old rookies for the most part.
Kucherov was the exception, but he turned out to be the one in a million.

Stamkos (23), #1 pick, 6th season
Palat (22), 2 AHL seasons
Hedman (23), #2 pick, 5th season
Tyler Johnson (23), overage junior, 2 AHL seasons
Killorn (24), 4 years college, 1 year AHL
Gudas (23), 3 years AHL
Suster (23), 3 years college
Paquette (20), 70 AHL games before called up for playoffs
Kucherov (20)

In fact, TB looks like the Flyers roster NEXT year (or the year after), with Farabee (20), Frost (21), and maybe York and Brink available for the playoffs if they go pro after college, along with a bunch of 22-24 year old players with 2-3 years of AHL experience, or 4 years college, 1 year AHL.

If Patrick and Lindblom are healthy, we're fielding 8-9 starters under 25 this playoff.
Patrick, Lindblom, TK, Farabee, NAK, Provorov, Sanheim, Myers, Hart.

 

[Striiker]

I'm pretty sure in 15-16 G was injured and for a passer like him you ought to do shot contributions not attempts. And maybe throw in overall PP numbers for context. That 2014 run was basically on a back of special teams and outscoring Emery's sv% from what I recall. Just by a quick look it seems that we are losing special teams battle even in a worse way than any series going back to 2012 playoffs. I blame Therrien and Yeo.

That’s why I have that season in red. It’s an outlier.

And I have shots/60 as well as shot attempts. It’s specifically his goal scoring people are complaining about, so that’s why I’m just focused on goal scoring in that post, not passing.

 

[Flyers Time]

Lindblom might take warmups tonight
Montreal doesn't stand a chance

 

[Starat327]

xGF are the best overall metric because it takes into account where you shoot
High danger to me is a measure of "carelessness" on defense, and play making on offense.

This is entirely opinion based. There is no 'best' metric - you need to look at an array of metrics to fully understand the picture. Otherwise, you are heavily skewing your viewpoint to one facet of the game and arent seeing the whole picture.

Looking at Thompaons xGa is a perfect example of this (and no doubt its not a coincidence) because the dude was getting chased every time he was on the ice. When yoire seeing that quantity of chance against in such a short period of time, it doesn't matter if they're high danger or not. If you can't keep possession and keep bleeding chances, you're going to fatigue your goalie ( we know you don't believe in this after your staunch defending of Hakstol running his into the ground), and then even the low danger chances start going in. All of the stats need to be looked at individually to paint the picture of play, which is why everyone treats the continual posting of just CF or just xGA, etc as a joke of an argument, and will continue to do so.

 

[Appleyard]

xGF is the better metric I believe... over larger samples... as it ties in closer to future goals than pretty much anything else including corsi. Albeit it is close.

Over smaller samples though it is tougher to say for sure. Corsi is higher event so is potentially more repeatable and less likely to be skewed too heavily. One breakdown can lead to a chance that is worth ~0.4 ExGF... when the player had nothing to do with the breakdown and spent the whole rest of the game in the OZ. That might happen once every ten games for a pairing or line and in turn skew single game or a few game stretch stats heavily. Which Corsi is less prone to.

Both viewed together are better I think when over smaller samples. Gives a slightly bigger picture.

 

[ajgoal]

Player 1	Player 2	GP	TOI	CF%	FF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	SCF%	HDCF%
Morgan Frost	Claude Giroux	20	104.4	57.58	56.57	56.62	41.67	53.77	60	52.17
Morgan Frost	w/o Claude Giroux	20	110.8167	44.15	43.07	38.83	50	42.17	47.31	40
w/o Morgan Frost	Claude Giroux	69	849.6	53.95	53.8	52.95	56.34	53.91	53.88	53.14
w/o Morgan Frost	w/o Claude Giroux	69	2228.733	49.77	49.69	50.78	53.16	49.53	49.26	50.39

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Frost and Giroux played well together, with territorial play largely improving together over individually, indicating that they complemented each other. When Konecny played with them, the line was outstanding, though the goal results hadn't come out yet (5GF, 6GA; 7% on ice shooting %, 89% on ice sv%).

Farabee - Couturier - Voracek - both Farabee and Jake had excellent stats alongside Couturier. The full line didn't perform well, but they had fewer than 10 minutes together.
Giroux - Frost - Konecny - Again, this line was excellent in the regular season.
JVR - Hayes - NAK - JVR and Hayes had excellent chemistry aside from the 25 minutes with Jake. NAK and Hayes didn't have much, but I'm not sure when that was in the season.
Raffl - Laughton - Pitlick - Excellent metrics in a limited sample.

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	GP	TOI	CF%	FF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	SCF%	HDCF%
Morgan Frost	Travis Konecny	Claude Giroux	17	90.5	58.37	56.96	57.26	45.45	54.98	61.61	54.55
Sean Couturier	Jakub Voracek	N/A	69	502.8833	55.45	54.8	55.14	65.91	55.49	54.59	52.87
Joel Farabee	Sean Couturier	N/A	52	97.1	53.11	52.9	53.41	75	54.59	52.63	50
Kevin Hayes	James van Riemsdyk	N/A	66	224.4333	52.67	54.27	54.88	50	58.05	56.48	62.2
Michael Raffl	Scott Laughton	Tyler Pitlick	41	23.46667	52.38	54.84	61.9	80	48	52.94	40

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As has been mentioned, there are some tactical changes they need to make as well, and overall the players need to be better. But adding Frost really provides you with the opportunity to have 4 dangerous lines.

 

[TheKingPin]

Lindblom might take warmups tonight
Montreal doesn't stand a chance

Really? AV trying to counter MTL playing for their coach. No way Lindblom plays.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Just don’t lay an egg in front of Hart again.

If top 6 don’t score , we lose again sadly.

We will need a 3-1 or 1-0 win today.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Really? AV trying to counter MTL playing for their coach. No way Lindblom plays.

Last I saw he worked out , but don’t think he is even with the team yet is he. Edit he appears to be taking the warm ups. No excuses.

And also we are f***ed if we need an emotional boost to beat the Habs.

 

[onlylordsvsmorebp]

If top 6 don’t score , we lose again sadly.

THIS....OUR BIG GUNS GOTTA SHOW UP.

 

[deadhead]

This is entirely opinion based. There is no 'best' metric - you need to look at an array of metrics to fully understand the picture. Otherwise, you are heavily skewing your viewpoint to one facet of the game and arent seeing the whole picture.

Looking at Thompaons xGa is a perfect example of this (and no doubt its not a coincidence) because the dude was getting chased every time he was on the ice. When yoire seeing that quantity of chance against in such a short period of time, it doesn't matter if they're high danger or not. If you can't keep possession and keep bleeding chances, you're going to fatigue your goalie ( we know you don't believe in this after your staunch defending of Hakstol running his into the ground), and then even the low danger chances start going in. All of the stats need to be looked at individually to paint the picture of play, which is why everyone treats the continual posting of just CF or just xGA, etc as a joke of an argument, and will continue to do so.

I don't think you're gonna fatigue a 21 year old goalie who played 70 games a year in junior hockey!
Especially when Thompson is only on the ice 5x5 for maybe 10 minutes a night.

Nice try, but I'm sure you can do better.

 

[deadhead]

Player 1	Player 2	GP	TOI	CF%	FF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	SCF%	HDCF%
Morgan Frost	Claude Giroux	20	104.4	57.58	56.57	56.62	41.67	53.77	60	52.17
Morgan Frost	w/o Claude Giroux	20	110.8167	44.15	43.07	38.83	50	42.17	47.31	40
w/o Morgan Frost	Claude Giroux	69	849.6	53.95	53.8	52.95	56.34	53.91	53.88	53.14
w/o Morgan Frost	w/o Claude Giroux	69	2228.733	49.77	49.69	50.78	53.16	49.53	49.26	50.39

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Frost and Giroux played well together, with territorial play largely improving together over individually, indicating that they complemented each other. When Konecny played with them, the line was outstanding, though the goal results hadn't come out yet (5GF, 6GA; 7% on ice shooting %, 89% on ice sv%).

Farabee - Couturier - Voracek - both Farabee and Jake had excellent stats alongside Couturier. The full line didn't perform well, but they had fewer than 10 minutes together.
Giroux - Frost - Konecny - Again, this line was excellent in the regular season.
JVR - Hayes - NAK - JVR and Hayes had excellent chemistry aside from the 25 minutes with Jake. NAK and Hayes didn't have much, but I'm not sure when that was in the season.
Raffl - Laughton - Pitlick - Excellent metrics in a limited sample.

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	GP	TOI	CF%	FF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	SCF%	HDCF%
Morgan Frost	Travis Konecny	Claude Giroux	17	90.5	58.37	56.96	57.26	45.45	54.98	61.61	54.55
Sean Couturier	Jakub Voracek	N/A	69	502.8833	55.45	54.8	55.14	65.91	55.49	54.59	52.87
Joel Farabee	Sean Couturier	N/A	52	97.1	53.11	52.9	53.41	75	54.59	52.63	50
Kevin Hayes	James van Riemsdyk	N/A	66	224.4333	52.67	54.27	54.88	50	58.05	56.48	62.2
Michael Raffl	Scott Laughton	Tyler Pitlick	41	23.46667	52.38	54.84	61.9	80	48	52.94	40

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As has been mentioned, there are some tactical changes they need to make as well, and overall the players need to be better. But adding Frost really provides you with the opportunity to have 4 dangerous lines.

Problem is it's hard to conclude anything about Frost b/c he had such dramatic home/away splits.
So did he play with Giroux on the road?