GDT: ECQF 3: FLYERS (a) vs. Canadiens (h) at Toronto, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2020, 8:00 pm ET

[Starat327]

When you start claiming that certain players were allowing oodles of goals without substantiation.

Except those players were allowing oodles of goals. Not high % chances.

"Just win baby", remember?

 

[Striiker]

The top players need to produce and drive play. The coaches need to adapt to Montreal’s winning game plan and put the players in the most advantageous position to do so. This is tantamount.

But the “depth players don’t really matter” card is a curious one to play in hockey, the sport that glorifies bottom of the roster players like no other. I’m glad to know Fletcher traded multiple picks for meaningless bottom 6 roster spots that were already being filled admirably in house. The performance of which — in 1/3 of the game at least — doesn’t actually matter. (This never has been and never will be a winning argument).

Especially when the person attempting it contradicts himself in almost every post, defending depth players to death and giving excuses why young guys cant fill those important roles.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Nate Thompson is a bum. But when he has 1 goal in 6 games and G, Couts, tk, Hayes, jvr, and Jake have 1 goal in the same 6 games, well it seems a tad bizarre to lay this on Nate Thompson.

People love preaching “the nothing matters” mantra. Does it matter that those 6 have nothing production wise? I guess with them it’s ok to say “nothing matters.”

There is more to hockey than raw goal totals. Like, for instance, their overall play. Especially when we are dealing in a very tiny sample size.

Everyone you have listed has played better and created more chances than Thompson has. All of them. There has been a substantial amount of bad luck involved with a lot of them. G has hit multiple posts, for instance. He's also created a ton of chances for others. Thompson isn't doing that, either.

Those other players will do better given enough time. Thompson will not. That's a massive difference. If those players were playing as badly as Thompson, then we'd have a major issue.

 

[Beef Invictus]

And all of those are veterans except Thomas, who is 6'1 190.

Thompson, Grant, Frost, Bunnaman, none are ideal, I'd prefer Raffl, Patrick and Lindblom myself.

The reason we have this conversation in the past was the lack of good options on the bottom six, this season if we are healthy, we don't have this discussion, next year it's going to be about which solid forward we have to bench.

We can also go back to the Pittsburgh Cups where young depth was vital to their win, if you'd like.


It's weird that you insist these depth players don't matter, and then turn around and act like it's deeply important that only this set group plays. If it doesn't matter, then it makes no difference if Frost starts getting time.

 

[Jettany]

Of course the top of the roater matters. But while the top half of the roster may not be scoring, they at least aren't getting scored.

Being a net positive is what matters. Thompaon scored a goal, sure. But he's responsible for letting several more in with his terrible play.

I just checked. He was on for goal 4 in game 2 only 1 es goal in 5 games. The one that bounced in off ghost skate.

Where are the “several” goals that were caused by “his terrible play”? Just curious.

 

[Starat327]

If this isn't the definition of being caved....

 

[Starat327]

I just checked. He was on for goal 4 in game 2 only 1 es goal in 5 games. The one that bounced in off ghost skate.

Where are the “several” goals that were caused by “his terrible play”? Just curious.

Can you only play terribly at 5v5? Asking for a friend.

 

[Jettany]

Morgan Frost isn’t going to fly in like Superman and save the day. But he might just make a play that leads to a goal. The Habs certainly haven’t been watching film or game planning for him. So yeah, he might not make a difference, but perhaps he just might.

Since Thompson has been horribly bad and is bringing nothing to the table right now, what the hell do they have to lose?

They don’t. Frost should be tried. No doubt. But you know what? If he played last game and had a hat trick, the boys lose 5-3.

 

[BiggE]

They don’t. Frost should be tried. No doubt. But you know what? If he played last game and had a hat trick, the boys lose 5-3.

Wow, thanks Captain Obvious. Shit Bobby Clarke in his prime couldn’t have singlehandedly won yesterday’s game. What does that have to do with trying Frost instead of Thompson tomorrow?

FFS, no one is expecting the kid to come in and be Danny Briere circa 2010, we just want the best players in the lineup.

 

[Striiker]

Since people keep wanting to go on and on about the playoff goal totals, I checked to see if Giroux's stats match the eye test right now, which says he's playing well and creating chances, but just hasn't had any luck yet. Poor guy hit 3 posts in a 3 game stretch...

In his playoff career:

Year (games)	shots on net/60 (5v5)	individual shot attempts/60 (5v5)	individual expected goals/60 (5v5)
2008-2009 (6)	6.66	15.82	0.76
2009-2010 (23)	6.67	11.04	0.56
2010-2011 (11)	5.79	12.30	0.42
2011-2012 (10)	6.68	14.16	0.46
2013-2014 (7)	6.42	14.59	0.61
2015-2016 (6)	4.45	8.90	0.30
2017-2018 (6)	6.24	14.83	0.57
2019-2020 (5)	7.16	11.25	0.54

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Red = injured

So he's still getting chances like the rest of his career, but just no luck so far. Even if you aren't big into stats, just look at the consistency of them (with the exception of the series where he was playing injured and needed surgery). There's a reason for that.

Sometimes dry spells just happen in tiny sample sizes. Obviously you don't get credit for almost scoring a goal, but it shows that his individual quality of play isn't the problem and he's doing what's within his power to generate offense. It just doesn't always end with a goal. It also shows that if he continues to play, the goals will come. There's an undeniable element of chance/luck involved in this sport and someone as good as Giroux isn't going to continue to shoot 0%. Even players who are indisputably far worse don't shoot 0%, so you know it's unsustainable.

On top of all this, people need to remember that Giroux is not primarily a goal scorer. He's a top tier passer/playmaker, who sets other people up to score, more than anything else. He's still setting people up, they're just not finishing right now and he also has zero control over that. People did the same thing during the regular season... they got worked up over a lack of points during early 2020, said he was invisible/slow/old/etc, ignored context explaining the lack of scoring, and what happened? He started scoring again and ended with 22 points in the last 23 regular season games.

 

[Jettany]

There is more to hockey than raw goal totals. Like, for instance, their overall play. Especially when we are dealing in a very tiny sample size.

Everyone you have listed has played better and created more chances than Thompson has. All of them. There has been a substantial amount of bad luck involved with a lot of them. G has hit multiple posts, for instance. He's also created a ton of chances for others. Thompson isn't doing that, either.

Those other players will do better given enough time. Thompson will not. That's a massive difference. If those players were playing as badly as Thompson, then we'd have a major issue.

I thought the complaint the other day was Thompson missed 2 empty nets. Are those chances?

I agree, he shouldn’t be playing. But please, our top guys need to produce. That’s a fact. Shouldn’t they be doing better than Thompson? That’s not much of an argument in my book.

I just love love the board making fun of Haag for having 2 goals bounce in off him. Happens to ghost, “nothing he could do about it”.

And ghost should be playing over Haag.

It’s just comical it comes down to laying the blame on Thompson.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Wow, thanks Captain Obvious. Shit Bobby Clarke in his prime couldn’t have singlehandedly won yesterday’s game. What does that have to do with trying Frost instead of Thompson tomorrow?

FFS, no one is expecting the kid to come in and be Danny Briere circa 2010, we just want the best players in the lineup.

Disagree on the Bobby part.

 

[Jettany]

Can you only play terribly at 5v5? Asking for a friend.

So he was on the ice for SEVERAL goals on the pk? Asking for a friend. Lol! I’ll check. It seems you like using the word “several” very liberally.

 

[BiggE]

JFC no one is blaming Thompson for yesterday’s loss. Every player deserves a share of the blame for that debacle. He’s simply the logical guy to replace with Frost because, on a good day, he’s still a crappy player.

 

[Jettany]

Can you only play terribly at 5v5? Asking for a friend.

One goal against killing. Tatar’s from the other side of the ice he was defending. Yep, definitely several.

 

[Magua]

Who cares about an individual goal or two — for or against — that already happened? I’ll leave that up to H.G. Wells.

The Flyers team as a whole has gotten systematically destroyed for the majority of this series. Whether it’s been a shift that led to a goal or not. Whatever helps fix that for the rest of the series seems like a decent enough plan.

 

[Jettany]

Wow, thanks Captain Obvious. Shit Bobby Clarke in his prime couldn’t have singlehandedly won yesterday’s game. What does that have to do with trying Frost instead of Thompson tomorrow?

FFS, no one is expecting the kid to come in and be Danny Briere circa 2010, we just want the best players in the lineup.

No it’s about needing production from our top players. Guess the sarcasm was a little above your head. Did you miss me saying frost should be playing instead of Thompson? Captain obvious.

 

[bennysflyers16]

JFC no one is blaming Thompson for yesterday’s loss. Every player deserves a share of the blame for that debacle. He’s simply the logical guy to replace with Frost because, on a good day, he’s still a crappy player.

highly unlikely it’s Frost. But it should be Laughton and if not Bunny.

Thompson is def the shortest midget in games 1 and 2.

 

[deadhead]

We can also go back to the Pittsburgh Cups where young depth was vital to their win, if you'd like.


It's weird that you insist these depth players don't matter, and then turn around and act like it's deeply important that only this set group plays. If it doesn't matter, then it makes no difference if Frost starts getting time.

Again, misleading. That "young" depth were players like Laczynski, Allison, Twarynski, etc. next year.
Pittsburgh had a general policy of marinating their prospects in the AHL for 2-3 years.

Sheary, 23 year old rookie
Rust, 23 year old rookie
Dumoulin, 24 year old rookie
Kuhnhackl, 24 year old rookie
Maata, 21, full season at 19 then missed most of his second season, third season in their Cup year
Murray, 21 year old rookie

Next season,
Guentzel, 22 year old rookie
Scott Wilson, 24 year old rookie (24 games the previous season, but not PO)

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[Jettany]

If this isn't the definition of being caved....View attachment 361500

I never looked at these stats. Striker explained them to me a little while back. Do you ever look at the high danger stats? To me, if I understand them correctly, they seem to matter the most. If you are on the ice for 4 shots against and 2 for you get a bad Corsi number. I believe. If your 2 shots are high danger shots and the 4 against are perimeter shots you have a very good hdcf%. I would think your on ice quality shots for and against are the best judge of success.

 

[deadhead]

If this isn't the definition of being caved....View attachment 361500

Of course you could provide some more detail:

Thompson CF 25.00%, xGF 13.21%
Farabee CF 30.43%, xGF 8.83%
Giroux CF 30.00%, xGF 23.16%
Couts CF 45.00%, xGF 26.16%
JVR CF 41.67%, xGF 29.31%
Voracek CF 27.785, xGF 35.01%

I have no interest in defending Thompson, rather, scapegoating him takes attention away from much better, much higher paid players who shit the bed.

 

[deadhead]

I never looked at these stats. Striker explained them to me a little while back. Do you ever look at The high danger stats? To me, if I understand them correctly, seem to matter the most. If you are on the ice for 4 shots against and 2 for you get a bad Corsi number. I believe. If your 2 shots are high danger shots and the 4 against are perimeter shots you have a very good hdcf%. I would think your on ice quality shots for and against are the best judge of success.

xGF are the best overall metric because it takes into account where you shoot
High danger to me is a measure of "carelessness" on defense, and play making on offense.

 

[Jettany]

xGF are the best overall metric because it takes into account where you shoot
High danger against is a measure of "carelessness" on defense, and play making on offense.

But doesn’t the high danger against show your carelessness in defending? To me quality chances gained vs. given up show to me the type of player you are and the amount of success you will have over time.
Granted, I have no real idea if that is what hdcf% exactly is. But IF it is, it would be the only fancy stat I would look at.

 

[Striiker]

Keep in mind that all of CF%, xGF%, and HDCF% are on-ice stats, not individual stats.

In other words, they track what happens when the player is on the ice, not exclusively his own actions. Which means it's impacted by what their teammates do too.

That's why it's usually helpful to look at peoples stats with/without others.

For example...
Ghost overall... 52.01 CF%, 46.96 xGF%, 45.25 HDCF%
Ghost with Hagg... 50.40 CF%, 44.85 xGF%, 42.86 HDCF%
Ghost without Hagg... 53.80 CF%, 52.60 xGF%, 47.22 HDCF%
Hagg without Ghost... 39.51 CF%, 37.10 xGF%, 33.33 HDCF%

So the conclusion we reach is that Ghost was held back by Hagg and Hagg got carried by Ghost.