Early look for 2021 draft

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Current 1st line centers:

ANA: Getzlaf - 19th overall -
ARI: Stepan - 51st overall (like Niederbach)
BOS: 1a, Bergeron - 46 overall
BOS: 1b, Krejci - 63 overall
BUF: Eichel - 2nd overall
CGY: Monahan - 6th overall
CAR: Aho - 35th overall (like Veleno)
CHI: Toews - 3rd overall
COL: 1a, MacKinnon - 1st overall
COL: 1b, Kadri - 7th overall
CBJ: Dubois - 3rd overall
DAL: Seguin - 2nd overall
DET: Larkin - 14th overall
EDM: 1a, Draisaitl - 3rd overall
EDM: 1b, McDavid - 1st overall
FLO: Barkov - 2nd overall
LAK: Kopitar - 11th overall
MIN: Eriksson Ek - 20th overall
MTL: 1a Danault - 26th overall
MTL: 1b Suzuki - 13th overall
MTL: 1c Kotkaniemi - 3rd overall
NSH: Johansen - 4th overall
NJD: Hischier - 1st overall
NJD: Hughes - 1st overall
NYI: Barzal - 16th overall
NYR: Zibanejad - 6th overall
PHI: Couturier - 8th overall
PIT: 1a Crosby - 1st overall
PIT: 1b Malkin - 2nd overall
SJS: 1a Couture - 9th overall
SJS: 1b Hertl - 17th overall
STL: 1a ROR - 33rd overall
STL: 1b Schenn - 5th overall
TBL: 1a Point - 79th overall
TBL: 1b Cirelli - 73rd overall
TOR: 1a Matthews - 1st overall
TOR: 1b Tavares - 1st overall
VAN: 1a Horvat - 9th overall
VAN: 1b Pettersson - 5th overall
VGK: 1a Karlsson - 53rd overall
VGK: 1b Stastny - 44th overall (same 1b at Winnipeg)
WSH: 1a Bäckström - 4th overall
WSH: 1b Kuznetsov - 26th overall
WPG: Scheifele - 7th overall

Total of: 44 "1st line" centers.
- 16 Centers drafted at Top3 (36.4%)
- 11 Centers drafted at Top4-10 range (25.0%)
- 9 Centers drafted at Top11-30 range (20.5%)
- 8 Centers drafted outside of 1st round (18.2%)

Former Top10 drafted Centers from past drafts:

- Eric Staal (2002) - 1st line
- Gilbert Brule (2005) - bust
- Jordan Staal (2006) - 2nd line
- Derrick Brassard (2006) - 2nd line
- Kyle Turris (2007) - 2nd line
- Sam Gagner (2007) - 2nd line/bust (+800 games + 400 points, it's not that bad)
- Zach Hamill (2007) - bust
- Steven Stamkos (2008) - 1st line/winger
- Cody Hodgson (2008) - bust (injuries)
- Matt Duchene (2009) - 2nd line
- Alexander Burmistrov (2010) - bust
- Mikael Granlund (2010) - 2nd line/winger
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011) - 2nd line
- Ryan Strome (2011) - 2nd line
- Alex Galchenyuk (2012) - 2nd line/winger/bust
- Elias Lindholm (2013) - 2nd line
- Sam Reinhart (2014) 1st line/winger
- Sam Bennet (2014) - 3rd line
- Dylan Strome ("015) - 2nd line
- Pavel Zacha (2015) - 3rd line
- Tyson Jost (2016) - the jury is still out there
- Cody Glass (2017) - the jury is still out there
- Casey Mittelstadt (2017) - the jury is still out there
- Michael Rasmussen (2017) - the jury is still out there

Top10 drafted centers:

- 28x 1st line Centers (59.6%)
- 3x Top6 wingers (6.4%)
- 8x 2nd line centers (17.0%)
- 4x Bottom6 players (8.5%)
- 4 busts (8.5%)

Final conclusions:

- Top10 drafted centers mostly (59.6%) become 1st line centers, and they rarely become 2nd line centers.

- But it's also pretty good chance (38.7%) to find 1st line centers outside of Top10 picks.

@Henkka

Thanks for compiling this data.


I'd be interested to see the totals/%'s without some "current 1st Line Centers" who aren't actually true 1C's:


Krejci 2C 42pts/61gp

Stepan good 3C...28pts/71gp

Stastny great 3C, 38pts/71gp

Kadri 2C 36pts/51gp

Cirelli 2C, 44pts/68gp

Getzlaf 2C, 42pts/69gp

Danault 2C 47pts/71gp

Kotkaniemi current Minor leaguer. 8pts/36gp (-11, 2nd worst on team in 1/2 the games, AA is that you?)...that's not a typo, Eight pts/36gp...closer to being a 4C/future 3C than Top6C, much less 1C. Got sent down to AHL in 2nd yr, but not 1st.

Hischier 2C 36pts/58gp

Hughes 3C (lol) 21pts/61gp. Really wanna see Mo stomp the smirk off this kids face.

Suzuki low end 2C 41pts/71gp (team worst, -15)...his 1st yr. was decent & he may become a 1C, but isn't anywhere near that now.

RyJo career & season #'s are @2C production. '13-'15 were low end 1C production. People rag on Duchene (some of it warranted), but this guy seems to get a pass way more.

 

[Gniwder]

@Henkka

Thanks for compiling this data.


I'd be interested to see the totals/%'s without some "current 1st Line Centers" who aren't actually true 1C's:


Krejci 2C 42pts/61gp

Stepan good 3C...28pts/71gp

Stastny great 3C, 38pts/71gp

Kadri 2C 36pts/51gp

Cirelli 2C, 44pts/68gp

Getzlaf 2C, 42pts/69gp

Danault 2C 47pts/71gp

Kotkaniemi current Minor leaguer. 8pts/36gp (-11, 2nd worst on team in 1/2 the games, AA is that you?)...that's not a typo, Eight pts/36gp...closer to being a 4C/future 3C than Top6C, much less 1C. Got sent down to AHL in 2nd yr, but not 1st.

Hischier 2C 36pts/58gp

Hughes 3C (lol) 21pts/61gp. Really wanna see Mo stomp the smirk off this kids face.

Suzuki low end 2C 41pts/71gp (team worst, -15)...his 1st yr. was decent & he may become a 1C, but isn't anywhere near that now.

RyJo career & season #'s are @2C production. '13-'15 were low end 1C production. People rag on Duchene (some of it warranted), but this guy seems to get a pass way more.

Not sure how you could possibly say Getzlaf wasn't 1C in terms of the draft, considering he averaged over 1PPG for the first 11 years of his career. Sure his production dropped off the last couple of seasons, but age will do that.

I agree that the teams with 2 players listed, the second one should be removed (for example Krejci), but when you say 1C, you have to take into account the whole league, including the below average 1C. Otherwise you're looking at skewed numbers (top end 1C only).

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Not sure how you could possibly say Getzlaf wasn't 1C in terms of the draft, considering he averaged over 1PPG for the first 11 years of his career. Sure his production dropped off the last couple of seasons, but age will do that.

I agree that the teams with 2 players listed, the second one should be removed (for example Krejci), but when you say 1C, you have to take into account the whole league, including the below average 1C. Otherwise you're looking at skewed numbers (top end 1C only).

Obviously I'm referring to 1C's (low end to high end) by production for '19-'20 only.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Sounds like Wings are pissed about how the draft lottery worked out. They need to fix this bs.

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-rumors-october-24-2020/

 

[Bench]

I have some pretty serious fears for this year.

If this is a shortened season, I think we need to be wary of the fact the Wings could easily surge their way out of the bottom 10 and end up picking in the teens.

The lockout year was pretty wonky like that as well.

 

[Gniwder]

Obviously I'm referring to 1C's (low end to high end) by production for '19-'20 only.

Is that a fair measure for a draft? One single year of production, whether it's a rookie or an aging player like Getzlaf?

Either way, a 1C is a 1C in the league. You skew the stats when you decide to only look at high end players. If anything I would have just picked one player from each team, even when they have 2 generational players like the Pens.

 

[Henkka]

Is that a fair measure for a draft? One single year of production, whether it's a rookie or an aging player like Getzlaf?

I was looking for mostly careers or career peaks.

Why on Earth should we compare some single seasons for 35 year olds?

 

[Henkka]

I have some pretty serious fears for this year.

If this is a shortened season, I think we need to be wary of the fact the Wings could easily surge their way out of the bottom 10 and end up picking in the teens.

The lockout year was pretty wonky like that as well.

And the draft is most equal than ever, so it doesn't really matter, if we win too much of games.

"Serious fears", my god people are losing their mind.

 

[Bench]

And the draft is most equal than ever, so it doesn't really matter, if we win too much of games.

"Serious fears", my god people are losing their mind.

If it doesn't matter, then how come every team doesn't get equally better every season?

Call my crazy, but I feel like the Rangers have seen a bigger boost than anyone else. And it wasn't because they were picking in the teens.

Look I don't think tanking is viable anymore but picking in the teens this draft could be a significant delay to the rebuild if it doesn't yeild a high impact player.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Is that a fair measure for a draft? One single year of production, whether it's a rookie or an aging player like Getzlaf?

Either way, a 1C is a 1C in the league. You skew the stats when you decide to only look at high end players. If anything I would have just picked one player from each team, even when they have 2 generational players like the Pens.

For the Third & Final time, it's 60Pt/82gp (low 1C production) or better (mid/high 1C). Nobody is skewing anything. If they didn't play at a 1C level for '19-'20 they are not factored in as a 1C. I even cited numerous examples, jeez. You're overthinking it.

If we were looking at 2C's for example in the OP, would we still count Frans & Flip in the current formula, F*ck No, so why do you insist on having the following players as 1C's when they're clearly not. 1 is even in the AHL. 1C, LMAO.

for REFERENCE:

Krejci 2C 42pts/61gp

Stepan good 3C...28pts/71gp

Stastny great 3C, 38pts/71gp

Kadri 2C 36pts/51gp

Cirelli 2C, 44pts/68gp

Getzlaf 2C, 42pts/69gp

Danault 2C 47pts/71gp

Kotkaniemi current Minor leaguer. 8pts/36gp (-11, 2nd worst on team in 1/2 the games, AA is that you?)...that's not a typo, Eight pts/36gp...closer to being a 4C/future 3C than Top6C, much less 1C. Got sent down to AHL in 2nd yr, but not 1st.

Hischier 2C 36pts/58gp

Hughes 3C (lol) 21pts/61gp. Really wanna see Mo stomp the smirk off this kids face.

Suzuki low end 2C 41pts/71gp (team worst, -15)...his 1st yr. was decent & he may become a 1C, but isn't anywhere near that now.

RyJo career & season #'s are @2C production. '13-'15 were low end 1C production. People rag on Duchene (some of it warranted), but this guy seems to get a pass way more.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Adding a name to follow: Logan Mailloux.

Logan Mailloux at eliteprospects.com

 

[Gniwder]

For the Third & Final time, it's 60Pt/82gp (low 1C production) or better (mid/high 1C). Nobody is skewing anything. If they didn't play at a 1C level for '19-'20 they are not factored in as a 1C. I even cited numerous examples, jeez. You're overthinking it.

If we were looking at 2C's for example in the OP, would we still count Frans & Flip in the current formula, F*ck No, so why do you insist on having the following players as 1C's when they're clearly not. 1 is even in the AHL. 1C, LMAO.

for REFERENCE:

Krejci 2C 42pts/61gp

Stepan good 3C...28pts/71gp

Stastny great 3C, 38pts/71gp

Kadri 2C 36pts/51gp

Cirelli 2C, 44pts/68gp

Getzlaf 2C, 42pts/69gp

Danault 2C 47pts/71gp

Kotkaniemi current Minor leaguer. 8pts/36gp (-11, 2nd worst on team in 1/2 the games, AA is that you?)...that's not a typo, Eight pts/36gp...closer to being a 4C/future 3C than Top6C, much less 1C. Got sent down to AHL in 2nd yr, but not 1st.

Hischier 2C 36pts/58gp

Hughes 3C (lol) 21pts/61gp. Really wanna see Mo stomp the smirk off this kids face.

Suzuki low end 2C 41pts/71gp (team worst, -15)...his 1st yr. was decent & he may become a 1C, but isn't anywhere near that now.

RyJo career & season #'s are @2C production. '13-'15 were low end 1C production. People rag on Duchene (some of it warranted), but this guy seems to get a pass way more.

Getzlaf is the only one I really had an issue with, he lead all Ducks forward in ice time, he's still 1C. Besides that you're talking one point difference between him and Henrique.

If you don't pick at least one center from each team, you are skewing what it means to be a 1C. Basically you've already determined your definition of 1C as minimum 60 pt, when in reality, not every team has a center that scored 60 pts. Instead of saying 1C, you should just say centers that score more than 60pts and do a draft analysis.

 

[Gniwder]

If it doesn't matter, then how come every team doesn't get equally better every season?

Call my crazy, but I feel like the Rangers have seen a bigger boost than anyone else. And it wasn't because they were picking in the teens.

Look I don't think tanking is viable anymore but picking in the teens this draft could be a significant delay to the rebuild if it doesn't yeild a high impact player.

I think what he's trying to say is that there are a lot of good prospects in the top 10 this draft, so draft position doesn't matter AS MUCH, compared to say... this past season.

It wouldn't bother me if the Wings won a few games this season and picked 7th or 8th. I don't expect them to finish better than 5th from bottom, in terms of talent it's still a bottom 3 team. The biggest factor here is all of the impending UFAs, they are out to earn their next contract, so we could possibly see a few players play above their norms.

 

[Bench]

I think what he's trying to say is that there are a lot of good prospects in the top 10 this draft, so draft position doesn't matter AS MUCH, compared to say... this past season.

It wouldn't bother me if the Wings won a few games this season and picked 7th or 8th. I don't expect them to finish better than 5th from bottom, in terms of talent it's still a bottom 3 team. The biggest factor here is all of the impending UFAs, they are out to earn their next contract, so we could possibly see a few players play above their norms.

My concern remains. Truncated seasons increase the chance bottom teams pick in the 10-15 range, and decent teams slump their way into a top 3 pick.

During the 2013 lockout Tampa picked #3 overall. The very next season they won 46 games finished with 101 points, good for 8th best.

In the full season before the lockout, the Islanders were bottom 5. During the lockout season, the Islanders made the playoffs. The next full year they were picking bottom 5 again.

That's kinda what I'm talking about here.

 

[Gniwder]

My concern remains. Truncated seasons increase the chance bottom teams pick in the 10-15 range, and decent teams slump their way into a top 3 pick.

During the 2013 lockout Tampa picked #3 overall. The very next season they won 46 games finished with 101 points, good for 8th best.

In the full season before the lockout, the Islanders were bottom 5. During the lockout season, the Islanders made the playoffs. The next full year they were picking bottom 5 again.

That's kinda what I'm talking about here.

Tampa sucked the previous season, and had goaltending issues so they picked up Bishop in a trade at the deadline and changed coaches earlier in the season. That was basically the season they turned the corner, they made the postseason the next 3 years. I don't think the shortened season had any impact.

The Islanders posted 101 pts the following season, so was the lockout the anomaly or the season after? They've been rather inconsistent.

Same thing can happen in a full length season as well, look at the Avalanche in 2013-4, posted 112 points and they missed the playoffs the prior 3 seasons and the next 3 seasons. Varlamov posted .927% SV% in 2013.

So does a truncated season increase the odds that the Wings do well? I think it does too, but not to the extent you are fearing. The team has a number of players out to prove themselves, especially Gagner and Ryan and a shorter season favors older players. My bigger fear would be that the Wings are not eliminated from the playoffs before TDL because of the short season, and they decide not to sell assets. The team would be wasting an opportunity to gain a bunch of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks.

 

[Henkka]

So does a truncated season increase the odds that the Wings do well? I think it does too, but not to the extent you are fearing. The team has a number of players out to prove themselves, especially Gagner and Ryan and a shorter season favors older players. My bigger fear would be that the Wings are not eliminated from the playoffs before TDL because of the short season, and they decide not to sell assets. The team would be wasting an opportunity to gain a bunch of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks.

99% sure Yzerman will sell those guys, if they have good seasons, and bring these kids loaned to Europe on their spots. Nemeth will be gone, and we just bring Seider to play. Good or bad season, no difference.

Things going well means that we have more interesting assets to sell, and we would be getting better offers.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think what he's trying to say is that there are a lot of good prospects in the top 10 this draft, so draft position doesn't matter AS MUCH, compared to say... this past season.

It wouldn't bother me if the Wings won a few games this season and picked 7th or 8th. I don't expect them to finish better than 5th from bottom, in terms of talent it's still a bottom 3 team. The biggest factor here is all of the impending UFAs, they are out to earn their next contract, so we could possibly see a few players play above their norms.

One wonders also how the implications of canceled/delayed seasons and potentially a lot worse scouting opportunities impacts the draft. A much more unpredictable top 10?

I think adding another 1st round pick or two could be huge in 2021. Like, if players are worse scouted it might mean that you're able to get talent in the late 1st that's usually gone long before that. Maybe other teams are more okay with giving up a 1st if they feel it's a harder draft to scout for. I really hope Yzerman can work some magic.

Wallstedt should be a priority for us. I don't know how high he will go, but goalies rarely go top 5 so he might be a good option if we draft a little later.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I have some pretty serious fears for this year.

If this is a shortened season, I think we need to be wary of the fact the Wings could easily surge their way out of the bottom 10 and end up picking in the teens.

The lockout year was pretty wonky like that as well.

Then we draft Wallstedt and your goaltending dreams are fulfilled.

I'm also crossing my fingers, knocking on wood, avoiding walking under ladders and black cats crossing my path in the hopes we have real lottery luck. As far as we know the league has no intention of changing the lottery format. After 4 straight years of dropping at least 3 spots we're due for a nice bump.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

My concern remains. Truncated seasons increase the chance bottom teams pick in the 10-15 range, and decent teams slump their way into a top 3 pick.

During the 2013 lockout Tampa picked #3 overall. The very next season they won 46 games finished with 101 points, good for 8th best.

In the full season before the lockout, the Islanders were bottom 5. During the lockout season, the Islanders made the playoffs. The next full year they were picking bottom 5 again.

That's kinda what I'm talking about here.

I appreciate the risk of the Wings being able to out perform their collective talent over a less than full season. I think there are a whole host of other concerns with the 21' class, however, that are far more pressing (lost development time, lost evaluation time, etc.).

 

[raymond23]

My concern remains. Truncated seasons increase the chance bottom teams pick in the 10-15 range, and decent teams slump their way into a top 3 pick.

During the 2013 lockout Tampa picked #3 overall. The very next season they won 46 games finished with 101 points, good for 8th best.

In the full season before the lockout, the Islanders were bottom 5. During the lockout season, the Islanders made the playoffs. The next full year they were picking bottom 5 again.

That's kinda what I'm talking about here.

Yep it's a bit frightening. Especially considering we are due for a turnaround in terms of luck.

I'm also scared that we are going to continue being pooped on by the lottery system and then, once we're finally decent, the league changes the system and it hurts bubble teams.

I think I need a vacation lol

 

[JustJokinenAround]

Sounds like Wings are pissed about how the draft lottery worked out. They need to fix this bs.

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-rumors-october-24-2020/

the big problem with the lottery system is it doesn't help the teams that legitimately need the help. since 2014-2015 the only team to finish in last place multiple times is the sabres and they did it twice. so i don't really know if there is any 'tanking' to avoid in the league. aside from the fact i don't think any gm would say tanking is a good idea from the standpoint of contracts coming up at the same time and having a disproportionate amount of young players isn't going to win you cups or win you playoff rounds. having the draft order as the reverse standings seems to work just fine, the nfl has done it forever and there have not been issues of 'tanking'.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Adding a name to follow: Logan Mailloux.

Logan Mailloux at eliteprospects.com

I haven't followed that league in years but know he was pretty well regarded by college coaches. He is in good hands in London. Now we just need a proper CHL season.

 

[Frk It]

“HE JUST KEEPS PROVING YOU WRONG”: THE BRETT BROCHU STORY – London Knights

 

[Gniwder]

99% sure Yzerman will sell those guys, if they have good seasons, and bring these kids loaned to Europe on their spots. Nemeth will be gone, and we just bring Seider to play. Good or bad season, no difference.

Things going well means that we have more interesting assets to sell, and we would be getting better offers.

I'm a lot less sure. If the team is on the edge of a playoff spot, they aren't gonna sell. Shortened season increases the likelihood of that happening. Then the teams fighting for playoff spots compete hard and the Wings wind up just missing the playoffs.... that's my worst case scenario.

This team still doesn't have a true 2C, no elite scorers, no top pair D, and mediocre goaltending. I don't see playoffs unless the goalies absolutely stand on their heads and steal games.

My prediction is that the team picks around 6th again. (Seattle actually owns the 3rd worst record so they are actually the team most likely to pick 6th, but the Wings will find a way.)

 

[Henkka]

So you guys fear of getting to the playoffs, and at same time you know the team will be so poor, so it will never be near of the playoffs.

Maybe it would be time to think a little bit easier?

***

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

These are the season 2017-18 standings on the time Ken Holland traded Tomas Tatar to Vegas at 2018 trade deadline. Februay 26th standing. Wings 7 points shy from Eastern playoff spot. 1 game in hand.

So we were still easily on the playoff hunt, and that didn't restrict Ken Holland selling players. Quite sure it would have been even easier for Yzerman.

The wheels did drop totally off after that traded, did we lose 9 straight or something? The trade was a clear signal for the team, and the guys did log off after that.