Henkka
Registered User
Seems that we don't have a topic for the next draft.
I done some study about points-scoring based on primary points from different league. That study isn't ready anyhow, but one early find is that this 2021 WHL forward class looks very strong. It's stronger than that 2016 (Patrick, Yamamoto, Mattheos, Rasmussen), which has so far been the best on last 5 years.
For 2021 draft, I can only compare DY-1 productions between different classes, because:
A) it's the latest season we have for 2021 class, there's no DY (draft year) data yet
b) it's also only reasonable season, because many of the kids won't even play on that DY-2 season
What I've found, from all CHL leagues, it seems that there's generally some one-season wonders on DY-1 year and at DY years. Those usually can bust at higher rate. But if there's a kid that will put two good seasons in-a-row, relatively vs. his class, that seems to become an NHL player, and a good one.
Here is the WHL data, and with some familiar names you understand the ballpark where those 2021 players could be. And like we all know, much can happen in 1 year, but we'll see that year later.
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]2021 Class
- Top10 value - 21,40
- Top player - 11,14 (Dylan Guenther)
2020 Class
- Top10 value - 13,90
- Top player - 5,61 (Justin Sourdif)
2019 Class
- Top10 value - 11,22
- Top player - 6,99 Dylan Cozens
2018 Class - 7,09
- Top player - 2,85 (Kyle Topping)
2017 Class - 19,61
- Top player - 11,20 (Nolan Patrick)
As we see, that 2018 Class has been ultimate worst.
This 2021 looks very good, and Guenther is at level of Nolan Patrick, who was an unquestionable #1 overall year before 2017 draft. But in 2021, there seems to be better depth behind Guenther, this 2021 has 11 better players than the best one (Topping) from 2018 class.
What is remarkable, Top10 on this number rank from last 5 years includes six class 2021 WHL guys. Six per ten guys.
These early WHL number are really strong compared to OHL, which is having a significant drop. OHL could still be better overall league, but when I compare those years generally, it seems that this WHL year is extraordinary and those players are so much better than current top OHL guys, that these should project as better NHLrs.
I done some study about points-scoring based on primary points from different league. That study isn't ready anyhow, but one early find is that this 2021 WHL forward class looks very strong. It's stronger than that 2016 (Patrick, Yamamoto, Mattheos, Rasmussen), which has so far been the best on last 5 years.
For 2021 draft, I can only compare DY-1 productions between different classes, because:
A) it's the latest season we have for 2021 class, there's no DY (draft year) data yet
b) it's also only reasonable season, because many of the kids won't even play on that DY-2 season
What I've found, from all CHL leagues, it seems that there's generally some one-season wonders on DY-1 year and at DY years. Those usually can bust at higher rate. But if there's a kid that will put two good seasons in-a-row, relatively vs. his class, that seems to become an NHL player, and a good one.
Here is the WHL data, and with some familiar names you understand the ballpark where those 2021 players could be. And like we all know, much can happen in 1 year, but we'll see that year later.
| Adjusted DY-1 | NAME |
| 11,20 | 2017 - Nolan Patrick |
| 11,14 | 2021 - Dylan Guenther |
| 9,76 | 2021 - Cole Sillinger |
| 8,60 | 2021 - Conner Roulette |
| 8,45 | 2021 - Logan Stankoven |
| 7,65 | 2017 - Kailer Yamamoto |
| 6,99 | 2019 - Dylan Cozens |
| 6,13 | 2017 - Stelio Mattheos |
| 5,72 | 2021 - Jack O'Brien |
| 5,69 | 2021 - Gabe Klassen |
| 5,61 | 2020 - Justin Sourdif |
| 5,23 | 2020 - Connor Zary |
| 4,89 | 2019 - Peyton Krebs |
| 4,84 | 2020 - Connor McClennon |
| 4,80 | 2020 - Seth Jarvis |
| 4,58 | 2017 - Mason Shaw |
| 4,47 | 2021 - Zack Stringer |
| 4,29 | 2021 - Ryder Korczak |
| 4,26 | 2017 - Michael Rasmussen |
| 4,20 | 2019 - Kirby Dach |
| 4,02 | 2021 - Mikey Milne |
| 4,01 | 2017 - Nikita A. Popugayev |
| 4,00 | 2020 - Ridly Greig |
| 3,58 | 2020 - Ozzy Wiesblatt |
| 3,45 | 2017 - Kole Lind |
| 3,39 | 2019 - Nolan Foote |
| 3,13 | 2021 - Tyson Kozak |
| 3,02 | 2020 - Carter Souch |
| 2,94 | 2021 - Jackson Berezowski |
| 2,91 | 2017 - Jaret Anderson-Dolan |
| 2,85 | 2018 - Kyle Topping |
| 2,72 | 2021 - Colton Dach |
| 2,69 | 2020 - Kyle Crnkovic |
| 2,68 | 2018 - Eli Zummack |
| 2,66 | 2017 - Lane Zablocki |
| 2,66 | 2018 - Luka Burzan |
| 2,63 | 2017 - Jordy Bellerive |
| 2,55 | 2017 - Cody Glass |
| 2,50 | 2020 - Jake Neighbours |
| 2,29 | 2019 - Sasha Mutala |
| 2,21 | 2018 - Michael Farren |
| 2,13 | 2019 - Luke Toporowski |
| 2,07 | 2021 - Jayden Grubbe |
| 2,02 | 2019 - Dillon Hamaliuk |
- Top10 value - 21,40
- Top player - 11,14 (Dylan Guenther)
2020 Class
- Top10 value - 13,90
- Top player - 5,61 (Justin Sourdif)
2019 Class
- Top10 value - 11,22
- Top player - 6,99 Dylan Cozens
2018 Class - 7,09
- Top player - 2,85 (Kyle Topping)
2017 Class - 19,61
- Top player - 11,20 (Nolan Patrick)
As we see, that 2018 Class has been ultimate worst.
This 2021 looks very good, and Guenther is at level of Nolan Patrick, who was an unquestionable #1 overall year before 2017 draft. But in 2021, there seems to be better depth behind Guenther, this 2021 has 11 better players than the best one (Topping) from 2018 class.
What is remarkable, Top10 on this number rank from last 5 years includes six class 2021 WHL guys. Six per ten guys.
These early WHL number are really strong compared to OHL, which is having a significant drop. OHL could still be better overall league, but when I compare those years generally, it seems that this WHL year is extraordinary and those players are so much better than current top OHL guys, that these should project as better NHLrs.
