Dylan Strome Appreciation Thread

[RememberTheRoar]

if you are signing him now, you are rushing. he is barely 2 months full-time in the NHL, I don't understand how you can't see this?

First, you can’t sign him now, so nobody is arguing to do something that isn’t possible.

Second, if he finishes the year as a .9 PPG player with the Hawks, he’s not with only $3 million.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Yeah, you're right, but the point really still stands. It was Toews and Kane. They signed 6m deals, and had accomplished far more. If Strome hits 70 points this season and next, then I'd be prepared to offer him a bigger contract, but right now, he just doesn't have the resume to warrant it.

There is no way in hell he's getting to 70 this year. He only has 36 points so far, 30 after the trade.
Next year, who knows?

 

[RememberTheRoar]

If they are signing him this offseason, he'll have just over 100 games played. 48 will be in Ariz. I don't know how that can't play a part in the evaluation.

Fine, use it. Right now, he’s a .70 point per game player on the year with his Arizona games included.

As BK and ChiHawks10 have said, that’s probably worth $5 million per during this offseason.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Fine, use it. Right now, he’s a .70 point per game player on the year with his Arizona games included.

As BK and ChiHawks10 have said, that’s probably worth $5 million per during this offseason.

Right, I'd be ok with that deal at 4-5 years.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Right, I'd be ok with that deal at 4-5 years.

Then what are you and other people arguing?

The $6.5-8 million numbers are being thrown around ONLY in the scenario where he finishes this season on the current pace, AND follows it up with a .85+ PPG next season.

 

[AmericanDream]

First, you can’t sign him now, so nobody is arguing to do something that isn’t possible.

Second, if he finishes the year as a .9 PPG player with the Hawks, he’s not with only $3 million.

now meaning this year- he can be signed a new contract this year.

second, again no he doesn't - body of work is too small to guarantee that kind of money - I am just not seeing what you are seeing here with Strome. if he finishes with over 50 points, I am still not comfortable signing him to more than what I said.

if Strome wants a new contract in place prior to next season, then it will not be over $3-3.5 mil regardless how he finishes this year. that is my opinion and one typically backed up by body of work. if he wants to bet on himself, then he plays next year and sees if he can duplicate it, if he can then he is looking at $5-6 mil max IMO.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

now meaning this year- he can be signed a new contract this year.

second, again no he doesn't - body of work is too small to guarantee that kind of money - I am just not seeing what you are seeing here with Strome.

If I’m Strome, I certainly bet on myself to produce a second .85+ PPG year over taking your offer of $3 million then.

At that point, I’m worth 8-10% of the cap.

Strome would have zero incentive to sign for $3 million after this season.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Then what are you and other people arguing?

The $6.5-8 million numbers are being thrown around ONLY in the scenario where he finishes this season on the current pace, AND follows it up with a .85+ PPG next season.

I'm arguing to try to sign him at that rate this offseason, first and foremost. Ideally I'd want to sign him to a deal that could have some upside to the Hawks, meaning he produces more than he's paid.

I'm also pushing back on the idea that what happened in Ariz doesn't matter at all and to be wary of the small sample size. I don't think it can be assumed that you can just pencil in Strome for 70 pts next year.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

I'm arguing to try to sign him at that rate this offseason, first and foremost. Ideally I'd want to sign him to a deal that could have some upside to the Hawks, meaning he produces more than he's paid.

I'm also pushing back on the idea that what happened in Ariz doesn't matter at all and to be wary of the small sample size. I don't think it can be assumed that you can just pencil in Strome for 70 pts next year.

Gotcha, I think I’m getting your arguments and AD’s arguments mixed up

 

[ChiHawk21]

If I’m Strome, I certainly bet on myself to produce a second .85+ PPG year over taking your offer of $3 million then.

At that point, I’m worth 8-10% of the cap.

Strome would have zero incentive to sign for $3 million after this season.

giving himself a cushion of money that he can live on for the rest of his life in case things fall apart

 

[AmericanDream]

If I’m Strome, I certainly bet on myself to produce a second .85+ PPG year over taking your offer of $3 million then.

At that point, I’m worth 8-10% of the cap.

Strome would have zero incentive to sign for $3 million after this season.

really? why do you say that? a guaranteed contract for a player who has been viewed a bust by some and now is in a great spot wouldn't want security right now for a young player who likely will have ups and downs??

 

[RememberTheRoar]

now meaning this year- he can be signed a new contract this year.

second, again no he doesn't - body of work is too small to guarantee that kind of money - I am just not seeing what you are seeing here with Strome. if he finishes with over 50 points, I am still not comfortable signing him to more than what I said.

if Strome wants a new contract in place prior to next season, then it will not be over $3-3.5 mil regardless how he finishes this year. that is my opinion and one typically backed up by body of work. if he wants to bet on himself, then he plays next year and sees if he can duplicate it, if he can then he is looking at $5-6 mil max IMO.

So finishing this year at a .95 point per game rate, and following it up next year with another 70 points is only worth $5 million in your book?

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

I don't think Strome signs for 3 per before the season. I think that's a bit too low personally. Think he could get a 2-3 year deal at 3 per after next season in all but the worst case scenarios like a bad injury.

 

[AmericanDream]

So finishing this year at a .95 point per game rate, and following it up next year with another 70 points is only worth $5 million in your book?

yes, because of BODY OF WORK....why do you think he is going to get over this amount for barely 1.5 seasons of close to a ppg rate??

 

[RememberTheRoar]

really? why do you say that? a guaranteed contract for a player who has been viewed a bust by some and now is in a great spot wouldn't want security right now for a young player who likely will have ups and downs??

Because his game is obviously rising, and everything is pointing to him breaking out. You don’t lowball yourself while you’re trending up.

 

[AmericanDream]

Because his game is obviously rising, and everything is pointing to him breaking out. You don’t lowball yourself while you’re trending up.

he will be a RFA, all the Hawks have to do is let him go to arbitration, there is no low balling here. an arbitrator is going to look over his entire body of work and I am firmly saying he is not going to get over $6 mil for what he has done/does next year. and trending upward is one way of putting it, just 3 months ago he really couldn't go any lower. I get it, the kid has played great, but we all jumped on Schmaltz and went nuts on what he was going to cost, all I am saying is we need to stop assuming these guys will continue these ppg rates and lets see how he does over the next year plus. we can debate it then if my value is off, I think I am closer to reality at $5-6 mil then you are for $8 mil or whatever you might be suggesting.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

yes, because of BODY OF WORK....why do you think he is going to get over this amount for barely 1.5 seasons of close to a ppg rate??

Because average players aren’t typically putting up a point per game for a season and a half.

I understand why you’re saying be cautious, and it’s absolutely a valid point, but to say he’s only with $3-5 million I think is selling him short

 

[RememberTheRoar]

he will be a RFA, all the Hawks have to do is let him go to arbitration, there is no low balling here. an arbitrator is going to look over his entire body of work and I am firmly saying he is not going to get over $6 mil for what he has done/does next year. and trending upward is one way of putting it, just 3 months ago he really couldn't go any lower. I get it, the kid has played great, but we all jumped on Schmaltz and went nuts on what he was going to cost, all I am saying is we need to stop assuming these guys will continue these ppg rates and lets see how he does over the next year plus. we can debate it then if my value is off, I think I am closer to reality at $5-6 mil then you are for $8 mil or whatever you might be suggesting.

Pastrnak got roughly 9% of the cap after his ELC following one 70 point season.

In his partial two years prior to that 70 point season, he was a .55 point per game player.

So assuming Strome matches Pastrnak’s contract year, you’re going to say a point per game as a Hawk this year holds significantly less meaning than Pastrnak’s .55 points per game prior to his breakout year?

 

[AmericanDream]

Because average players aren’t typically putting up a point per game for a season and a half.

I understand why you’re saying be cautious, and it’s absolutely a valid point, but to say he’s only with $3-5 million I think is selling him short

and that is where we will differ. I can see the situation he has been put in, it has helped him with his production, but he has earned it as well. I think anything over $5 mil is asking for trouble for a player that for 2 years produced 15 points in 41 games for the Yotes. I am well aware this is not that situation, but you have to use all his stats as a barometer and his value is just not that high right now IMO to justify over that. we will see how it shakes out and I hope he keeps this up because this team desperately needs him to, but we need to be very cautious with him as we have handed out some contracts in the past that did not age well.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

I’d love to get Strome and Cat signed to deals this offseason. But how often do RFAs actually sign deals a year before they’re contracts are up?

 

[ColdSteel2]

How many examples of that have we seen so far? You're talking superstar status type of players as well. Strome is not that, not yet at least.

It’s a trend that doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon. I can’t think of any examples of a player in Strome or Cat’s situation signing an extension while still on their ELC. There may be some, but nobody arguing to sign him cheap now is bringing them up as comps.

 

[AmericanDream]

Pastrnak got roughly 9% of the cap after his ELC following one 70 point season.

In his partial two years prior to that 70 point season, he was a .55 point per game player.

So assuming Strome matches Pastrnak’s contract year, you’re going to say a point per game as a Hawk this year holds significantly less meaning than Pastrnak’s .55 points per game prior to his breakout year?

I mean Pasta has over 300 games at almost the same age as Strome and his 80 games...I am just not seeing why you keep using him for an example. Pasta came into the league at 18 and never went back down after his time in the AHL. the B's had a much better overall feel for him and what he was capable of, we simply do not for Strome.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Pastrnak wasn’t exactly a superstar and avoided a bridge.

Ehlers, Horvat, and Drouin also.

Avoided a bridge, as in skipped those 2 year $4mAAV types of bridges, sure. But Pastrnak, Ehlers, Horvat, and Drouin ALL signed deals for 5-6 years with $5.5-6.6 mAAV’s. None of them for superstar contracts. If you go back a few draft classes earlier too, you have the: Saad, Hall, Eberle, MacKinnon, Landeskog, etc...types signing similar 6ish year $6ish million deals.

I think the hockey world might preemptively be freaking out over the Matthews deal. Matthews and McDavid signed huge contracts because they’re #1 OVR franchise 1C’s. They’re not the norm. Teams still know how to sign their young talent and Strome is A LOT closer to Hall/MacK/Landeskog than he is to Matthews and McDavid.

And until he shows more consistency, he’s not on any of their levels yet.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

I mean Pasta has over 300 games at almost the same age as Strome and his 80 games...I am just not seeing why you keep using him for an example. Pasta came into the league at 18 and never went back down after his time in the AHL. the B's had a much better overall feel for him and what he was capable of, we simply do not for Strome.

He played 46 and 51 games during the first two years of his ELC putting up a combined .55 PPG. That’s not what earned him the 9% of the cap contract.

It was the 70 point season in his third year that did it for him.

I get what you mean by saying they probably saw more during practice and how he trained, but he wasn’t wowing with his production the first two years.

He blew the bruins away in the third year, and if Strome matches that, I don’t see how you can dismiss it.

Combine that with a half a season of potential point per game play this year, I think Pastrnak’s agent could use Strome’s contract as a comparison. I think Stan talks him down to 8%.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Avoided a bridge, as in skipped those 2 year $4mAAV types of bridges, sure. But Pastrnak, Ehlers, Horvat, and Drouin ALL signed deals for 5-6 years with $5.5-6.6 mAAV’s. None of them for superstar contracts. If you go back a few draft classes earlier too, you have the: Saad, Hall, Eberle, MacKinnon, Landeskog, etc...types signing similar 6ish year $6ish million deals.

I think the hockey world might preemptively be freaking out over the Matthews deal. Matthews and McDavid signed huge contracts because they’re #1 OVR franchise 1C’s. They’re not the norm. Teams still know how to sign their young talent and Strome is A LOT closer to Hall/MacK/Landeskog than he is to Matthews and McDavid.

And until he shows more consistency, he’s not on any of their levels yet.

This offseason is going to reveal a lot about what kind of contracts non-1C 1st year RFA players will get. Tkachuk, Marner, Rantanen just to name a few. I think those guys are going to get similar AAVs. I think what was the 5-6M x 5 year contract is now the 9-10M x 5 year contract.