Draisaitl vs. Matthews

Who will score more goals this season?


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TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
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What about all the independent hockey media, particularly the ones based in the US?

I don’t think he’s the favourite for the Hart and I don’t participate in the generational debate because it’s silly. It’s not clearly defined in a hockey sense so it’s a pointless discussion.

My point is that it would be inconsistent to take someone’s opinion as gospel (especially someone like Button) but dismiss those from others who’re equal/more credible.

Hart voters are generally just sports writers. What makes them equally or more credible than Craig Button who is a former GM?
 
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sparxx87

Don Quixote
Jan 5, 2010
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Hart voters are generally just sports writers. What makes them equally or more credible than Craig Button who is a former GM?
Nothing. I know guys who’ve had votes and they’ve cracked jokes about how they arrive at the decision.

It was Pastrnak who picked Matthews for Hart which I don’t agree with. I just find it odd that these positive opinions are dismissed but a negative one from Button is treated as absolute truth.
 

WetcoastOrca

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What about all the independent hockey media, particularly the ones based in the US?

I don’t think he’s the favourite for the Hart and I don’t participate in the generational debate because it’s silly. It’s not clearly defined in a hockey sense so it’s a pointless discussion.

My point is that it would be inconsistent to take someone’s opinion as gospel (especially someone like Button) but dismiss those from others who’re equal/more credible.

I’ve watched McDavid since he was 14 years old and will continue to do so at every opportunity. I’ve caught the better part of 5-6 Oiler games as it’s them and Colorado who usually take priority when I’m watching the late game... but I’m not sure how any of that is relevant?
I think we are on the same page. I don't take Button's word as gospel nor do I take hyperbole type comments from competitors who say he's a favorite for the Hart or generational as gospel. I mean clearly he is none of those things right now although he could possibly compete for a Hart in the future. The generational stuff is just nonsense. He's a very talented player who, imo, still needs to round out his game to be as good an all round player as Draisiaitl.
 
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Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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15 points is quite a lot to attribute to a superior linemate, even with the increased PP time.
No, not really. Especially not when it's McDavid.

Lo and behold, Tavares finally has an elite winger on his line and he surpassed his career high in points by 2 points.
He had his career year, despite being 28, having a lesser quality 2nd linemate, less ES time, less PP time, playing a smaller role on the PP, and playing a goal-scorer role at ES where it's harder to accumulate points.

His ES P/60 went up 26% from the year before. That's certainly not disproving the massive benefit of quality linemates.
 

Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
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He had his career year, despite being 28, having a lesser quality 2nd linemate, less ES time, less PP time, playing a smaller role on the PP, and playing a goal-scorer role at ES where it's harder to accumulate points.

His ES P/60 went up 26% from the year before. That's certainly not disproving the massive benefit of quality linemates.

And the fact league-wide scoring was up higher than it's been since roughly around the end of the 2005 lockout didn't contribute? Where did Tavares finish league-wide in points? Around 14th or 15th? He finished 2nd the year he set his previous career high. You don't think that had a big factor, and not just improved linemates, in seeing him set a new career high?
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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And the fact league-wide scoring was up higher than it's been since roughly around the end of the 2005 lockout didn't contribute?
ES scoring was up 3.5% from the previous year. His ES P/60 jumped 26%, despite the other disadvantages in comparison.

You're wrong. Linemate quality has a huge effect.

You literally argued about linemates having a huge effect when you were talking about Crosby. Weird how that changed when talking about Matthews.

Where did Tavares finish league-wide in points?
Look at who the players above him play with, and their PP time.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,361
25,425
Fremont, CA
Nothing. I know guys who’ve had votes and they’ve cracked jokes about how they arrive at the decision.

It was Pastrnak who picked Matthews for Hart which I don’t agree with. I just find it odd that these positive opinions are dismissed but a negative one from Button is treated as absolute truth.

Ah, fair. It is interesting to note that when players are polled asking who they would start a franchise with, a small percentage always say Matthews, but nobody ever says Draisaitl...

Personally, I dismiss pretty much all of these opinions because they never have an argument behind them. Who an argument came from is pretty meaningless to me; what matters is what the argument consists of. Neither Button nor Pastrnak substantiated their claims at all.
 

Dion TheFluff

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Jun 22, 2015
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Can you provide the link where he said that about Kapanen. I’m sceptical that he ever said that. I think what he probably said was that he wasn’t consistent enough to be a top 6 player.
Rather than attacking Button because you don’t like him criticizing a Leaf, you should address his comments.
I agree with him that Drai is the more complete all round player.
Matthews is an elite sniper but he isn’t as good a playmaker as Drai. From watching him this year I’d also say his defensive play needs a lot of work. For example yesterday on the Dubois goal he can’t just let a player go by him like that without playing the body.
Drai is older and has had more time to round out his game and Matthews may get there one day but he’s not there yet. He still has some things he needs to improve on which is not surprising given his age.

I wasn't able to load the direct video but this pretty much sums it up.

aside from like Bergeron, O'Reilly and other selke caliber forwards you could probably find lots of similar defensive gafs from other elite players. it's just no other player is under the same microscope as what Matthews is.
 

WetcoastOrca

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I wasn't able to load the direct video but this pretty much sums it up.

aside from like Bergeron, O'Reilly and other selke caliber forwards you could probably find lots of similar defensive gafs from other elite players. it's just no other player is under the same microscope as what Matthews is.

That’s a dumb comment from Button.
Every hyped player is under the same microscope. Even a lot of Leaf fans have commented on Matthews lack of effort on many nights. There’s no doubt he has the talent.
 

joe dirte

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
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That’s a dumb comment from Button.
Every hyped player is under the same microscope. Even a lot of Leaf fans have commented on Matthews lack of effort on many nights. There’s no doubt he has the talent.

You don't say!!!! I'm flabbergasted, usually he's a wealth of knowledge.
 

joe dirte

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
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Well he’s right on this debate though. Mind you it’s a pretty easy call at this point.

Good thing, he's got Westcoastorca on his side!!!! Which is shocking, you're usually pretty quick to jump to the defense of the Leafs and their players.
 

WetcoastOrca

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Good thing, he's got Westcoastorca on his side!!!! Which is shocking, you're usually pretty quick to jump to the defense of the Leafs and their players.

Thanks for that. I usually just ask myself what would an objective and balanced poster like joe dirte do and then try to live up to your high standards.
 
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Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
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You literally argued about linemates having a huge effect when you were talking about Crosby. Weird how that changed when talking about Matthews.

In what context? Pretty sure the only time I've mentioned linemates with regards to Crosby is in a discussion about whether having Malkin on the PP and average linemates at 5on5 is more beneficial than having elite linemates like Backstrom or Draisaitl at 5on5 is for a player.

And where did I say linemates have ZERO effect? You originally quoted me because I was arguing that linemates don't have some drastic "Player X will score 20+ points with a better linemate" type effect. I wasn't arguing that playing with better linemates will literally have zero effect on production.
 

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
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You originally quoted me because I was arguing that linemates don't have some drastic "Player X will score 20+ points with a better linemate" type effect. I wasn't arguing that playing with better linemates will literally have zero effect on production.
You said 15 points difference wasn't possible while playing with the best player in the game and getting drastic TOI advantages, which is untrue.

You also made some claims about Tavares and the impact an elite linemate had on him, which I proved to be false.
 

Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
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You said 15 points difference wasn't possible while playing with the best player in the game and getting drastic TOI advantages, which is untrue.

Uh, your opinion doesn't count as proving it untrue. I didn't see a single piece of actual evidence that you provided that suggests playing with McDavid bumps a player's totals up 15+ points over what they're otherwise capable of.

McDavid's regularly played with other wingers other than Draisaitl. I'm assuming you have the evidence to show that they've produced 15+ more points with him than they did at any other point in their careers without him?

You also made some claims about Tavares and the impact an elite linemate had on him, which I proved to be false.

No, you moved the goalposts to only include those rate stats that you stick with. Just because you don't think raw totals have any merit doesn't mean your point is correct.

Fact: Tavares' career high with the Isles was 86 points, which he got in a much lower scoring season. His new career high is 88 points with Toronto, which he got in one of the highest scoring seasons in the past decade.

You have this tendency to state things as "untrue" if they don't follow your own specific idea of what stats matter or don't matter. It makes having an honest discussion with you difficult because you'll dismiss outright everything as "untrue" that doesn't involve your fascination with "rate" stats.
 

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
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Uh, your opinion doesn't count as proving it untrue.
No, the facts do.

I didn't see a single piece of actual evidence that you provided that suggests playing with McDavid bumps a player's totals up 15+ points over what they're otherwise capable of.
Because we don't currently have a way to quantify the impact of linemates into a number, but it's clearly evident and we know it exists, and even in the example you used, we saw Tavares have a 26% boost just from one elite linemate despite countless other disadvantages, and out of his prime.

To suggest Draisaitl in his prime couldn't get 15 more points with the best player in the world in his prime and drastically more TOI is completely unfounded.

McDavid's regularly played with other wingers other than Draisaitl. I'm assuming you have the evidence to show that they've produced 15+ more points with him than they did at any other point in their careers without him?
Yes, the other players have seen a boost, and 15% is not unreasonable (even though that 15 points included TOI differences as well).

No, you moved the goalposts to only include those rate stats that you stick with. Just because you don't think raw totals have any merit doesn't mean your point is correct.
Rate stats are important, no matter how much you try to deny it.

Tavares ES points last season with marner: 69
Tavares highest ES points in any other season: 56

Fact: Tavares' career high with the Isles was 86 points, which he got in a much lower scoring season. His new career high is 88 points with Toronto, which he got in one of the highest scoring seasons in the past decade.
That ignores the entire context of their situations, which makes it a useless fact for what you are using it for.
 
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