Prospect Info: Draft Thread | How Far Would You Trade Down?

[Canovin]

And yet where did they finish last year? If your using Atlanta/Winnipeg as your team building model something is wrong. I mean how much better is Winnipeg is they had gone against the grain and taken Pietrangelo over Bogosian? Or why even have a scouting staff if your just going to trust some hockey writers opinion?

Why are talking about Atlanta? I've stated the Jets. They drafted incredibly well since drafting Scheifele who was ranked 15-20 in RNH's year. Trouba at 9th. Morrisey at 15th.

They are not far away from contending and they did it without picking as high as we did.

 

[Halibut]

Why are talking about Atlanta? I've stated the Jets. They drafted incredibly well since drafting Scheifele who was ranked 15-20 in RNH's year. Trouba at 9th. Morrisey at 15th.

They are not far away from contending and they did it without picking as high as we did.

I thought your point was they did well because they were drafting the consensus BPA not making a reach to pick who they thought was the best? Of the three you listed Trouba went at the spot Mckenzie's list had him projected the other two were both well ahead of their projected spot. The Jets are an excellent argument for not going BPA.

 

[Canovin]

I thought your point was they did well because they were drafting the consensus BPA not making a reach to pick who they thought was the best? Of the three you listed Trouba went at the spot Mckenzie's list had him projected the other two were both well ahead of their projected spot. The Jets are an excellent argument for not going BPA.

True. Scheifele wasn't consensus BPA. But Trouba, Morrisey, Connor, Ehlers, Roslovic, Harkins, Comrie, Petan etc were.

 

[Aequitas]

True. Scheifele wasn't consensus BPA. But Trouba, Morrisey, Connor, Ehlers, Roslovic, Harkins, Comrie, Petan etc were.

after the first 3-5 picks there is no consensus BPA. especially after the first round there isn't. They aren't going off the board with their selections I agree but there is no way to be certain of BPA when you get into the muddier waters of later picks.

 

[Halibut]

True. Scheifele wasn't consensus BPA. But Trouba, Morrisey, Connor, Ehlers, Roslovic, Harkins, Comrie, Petan etc were.

Not Morrisey he was rated well back by the scouts Mackenzie talked to, he had him listed at 28th and central scouting had him at 27th for North American skaters.
Ehlers wasnt the consensus BPA at the time Nick Ritchie at least was still on the board and Mackenzie and Central scouting had him rated much higher. I dont have the time to go through the rest but it looks pretty obvious to me the Jets are following their own rankings and reaching when they think it's appropriate. They arent following the consensus BPA, sure a lot of time their scouts might agree with the consensus but they arent sticking with it over what they see.

They've done well precisely because they've gone against the grain in several cases.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Consensus best player available at the time. It's a safer route. Look at the Jets for example. Straight to the point and no monkey business. They weren't trying to be the smartest people in the room and drafted guys who most scouts thought should be taken at the time. Sure you might hit and miss but there's a better chance of getting it right going with the consensus.

Benson hasn't shown enough whereas other prospects projected to be just as good and have a bigger body of work in a stacked draft year.

Mark Scheifele was a bit of a reach. He seems to have turned out OK. Different teams will have different boards/rankings. BPA is a media handle and nothing more.

 

[Zaddy]

The thing with the Jets isn't that they necessarily go "BPA", it's that they have valued skill over almost anything else. I'd say it's a mix of BPA and skill really. Ehlers, Petan, Morrissey, Connor, Roslovic are all skill guys that they felt comfortable taking when they dropped to their pick. They don't do what many other teams do which is to try and outsmart themselves. I'm a big fan of their drafting.

Another example of a team who do this is the Blues. They've gotten a lot of guys that they had no business getting in the past couple of drafts. Fabbri at #21 in 2014 is a good example, kid with top10 skill and probably should've been picked there but other teams were scared of his size...Tarasenko at #16 in 2010 is another one, top5 skill but was passed on because of concerns around conditioning and possibly his nationality...They got Schwartz two spots ahead of Tarasenko that year too and he was ranked 29th on Bobby Macs list, probably due to him being 5'10. That didn't stop the Blues from drafting him much earlier than that and they've been handsomely rewarded for it.

They look to have a lot of other steals as well like Vince Dunn late in the 2nd round (1st rounder on my list), Barbashev early in the 2nd (was ranked in mid 1st by pretty much everyone). Then obviously they found Parayko in the 3rd round. I could go on...Either way they too draft a mix of BPA and Most Skill Available and as a result they've gotten a lot of good players through the draft with more coming.

There was no good reason for a guy like Kyle Connor to fall to #17 last year, absolutely none, yet he did because teams are stupid and try to outsmart themselves. A team like the Jets are smarter than that and got rewarded for it. Ehlers is another good example, kid had top3 skill in the 2014 draft but wasn't selected until 9th. It would've been very easy for the Jets in that situation to go with a bigger body like Ritchie or Perlini but they were smarter than that and chose skill over size.

Right about now that decision looks very good. Ritchie struggled a lot in the NHL this year and I know Ducks fans were very disappointed with him. Perlini is even worse, he finished his junior career with a season below PPG on a team that was supposed to be a contender for the OHL championship. Unacceptable. Ehlers on the other hand just had his first year in the NHL and impressed. Finished the year really strong on a line with Scheifele and Wheeler IIRC.

So yeah...drafting like the Jets or Blues is something to strive for. Last years draft was a good step towards that, hopefully that trend continues.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Just IMO but BPA doesn't mean that you take the highest rated player based on Central Scoutings rankings. It means you select the player you think will have the most impactful career.

BPA means that you ignore the team's current needs when making your selection.

 

[VainGretzky]

Remember the good ole days when the Oilers tried out smarting the draft scouts . Niinimaki Rita Mikhnov Henrich Riesen Kelly Hullbig Wright and Soules yes the good old days of dart throwing. BPA please.

 

[Staghorn]

Mark Scheifele was a bit of a reach. He seems to have turned out OK. Different teams will have different boards/rankings. BPA is a media handle and nothing more.

Yeah Shiefele "seems to have turned out OK"... Like 200x the player RNH will ever be. That is what I call gutsy drafting, and with their prospect pool, the Jets will be a contender for a long time.

 

[Joey Moss]

Yeah Shiefele "seems to have turned out OK"... Like 200x the player RNH will ever be. That is what I call gutsy drafting, and with their prospect pool, the Jets will be a contender for a long time.

Scheifele isn't even a better player than RNH is now. He had a better season, that's it.

 

[vincent1999]

Good analysis overall. However Coburn and Bogosian are not misses at all. Both solid top 3-4 defencemen who have good value. Both have been traded for quite a bit. Gudbranson isn't a miss either although he might've been take too high. He was also traded for good value.

I think you're a little hard on this dmen class. I've seen them compared favourably to Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski.

wrt Coburn and Bogosian, I see them both as being 4-5 d-men and each are not quite the equal of d-men selected before or after them in their draft year. Similarly, wrt Gudbranson, he was the top d-men in his draft year (no one else selected before #10), and he's also in the 4-5 d-men sort of ranking-- that is, a bit of a miss for a d-men selected #3 overall (and is pretty much inferior to other d-men selected that high in their draft year).

wrt the d-men class of 2016, firstly no elite top class d-men (better than all his compatriots) and the top 3 are all rated below a group of up to 7 forwards. As for being compared to Hanifin, none of them are even chose. And I would suggest that Provorov is also a superior prospect to any of them as well. Werenski, well finally that's about the level that the top d-men class of 2016 are at. And W. was drafted at #8, which is about the measure of where these guys will begin to be selected this year. So, all 3 are a bit of a stretch to go #4 to the Oilers in terms of BPA. A debate as to whether Sergachev/ Juolevi/ or Chychrun are better prospects than the 2013 draft of #7 Nurse or #8 Ristolainen, now that's more of a close call, and it might be fairly argued that the 2016 d-men class is just a touch below N. and R.
wrt the 2012 draft, I'd put the 3 2016 guys in amongst #7 Dumba, #8 Pouliot, and #9 Trouba, with #5 Rielly and #6 Lindholm slightly higher (and #4 Reinhart was a draft mis step). wrt the 2009 draft, I know #2 Hedman was slated to be a potential superstar, and #6 Ekman-Larsson, I don't know remember much hype about him, but ... he's become the value of a top #3 or better draft pick.
and wrt the 2008 draft, it was a year in which the top 3 d-men were significant prizes to behold, and all were supposed to achieve a level higher than that forecast for the top 3 d-men of 2016, who sort of more approximate the #5 pick Schenn.

 

[nabob]

Yeah Shiefele "seems to have turned out OK"... Like 200x the player RNH will ever be. That is what I call gutsy drafting, and with their prospect pool, the Jets will be a contender for a long time.

0.64ppg vs 0.71ppg
Keep in mind that the player with the higher PPG is also a much better 2-way player and has fought through injuries since being drafted, and hasn't had a NHL level pick moving defenseman on his club, ever.

I'd say Nuge is probably like 300x the player Shiefele is


For them to "be a contender for a long time" they first have to actually become a contender. They have great prospects sure, but remember when Jani Rita was "the best player not in the NHL"?

 

[I am the Liquor]

0.64ppg vs 0.71ppg
Keep in mind that the player with the higher PPG is also a much better 2-way player and has fought through injuries since being drafted, and hasn't had a NHL level pick moving defenseman on his club, ever.

I'd say Nuge is probably like 300x the player Shiefele is


For them to "be a contender for a long time" they first have to actually become a contender. They have great prospects sure, but remember when Jani Rita was "the best player not in the NHL"?

So you are saying being injury prone is a plus?

Nugent Band Aid was also a first overall pick. I would say Schiefele has at least met if not exceeded expectations while Nuge is turning into Snowpants 2.0.

 

[Zaddy]

Final top30 from HockeyProspect is out: http://www.hockeyprospect.com/2016-nhl-draft-rankings-hockeyprospect-com-final-top-30/

It suggests that indeed the "big 3 D" is not a thing anymore. Fabbro, McAvoy and Bean are right there with them and the first two are actually ranked ahead of Chychrun here. McLeod keeps falling too. HP is probably the only scouting service that gives respect to Dahlén as they have him ranked #24, me likey.

 

[Fourier]

So you are saying being injury prone is a plus?

Nugent Band Aid was also a first overall pick. I would say Schiefele has at least met if not exceeded expectations while Nuge is turning into Snowpants 2.0.

Is it also a plus for Scheifele? Since he has been in the NHL Scheifele has missed 30 games due to injury. Over that period Nuge missed 35. In all three years of juniors Scheifele missed a lot of games due to injury. Is he a band aid as well because he has probably a more extensive injury history?

Injuries happen in hockey. But most are just random events. It is reasonable to argue that Scheifele brings things to the table that Nuge does not, primarily because of his size. But I have never bought the injury prone argument.

 

[Halibut]

Remember the good ole days when the Oilers tried out smarting the draft scouts . Niinimaki Rita Mikhnov Henrich Riesen Kelly Hullbig Wright and Soules yes the good old days of dart throwing. BPA please.

I think that was more on the fact that we had ****** scouts than anything to do with draft philosophy.

 

[40oz]

Final top30 from HockeyProspect is out: http://www.hockeyprospect.com/2016-nhl-draft-rankings-hockeyprospect-com-final-top-30/

It suggests that indeed the "big 3 D" is not a thing anymore. Fabbro, McAvoy and Bean are right there with them and the first two are actually ranked ahead of Chychrun here. McLeod keeps falling too. HP is probably the only scouting service that gives respect to Dahlén as they have him ranked #24, me likey.

Can't say I disagree with them, IMO Fabbro outplayed Chychrun at the u18's. I see a good crop of dmen in this draft, but not a very high-end one.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Is it also a plus for Scheifele? Since he has been in the NHL Scheifele has missed 30 games due to injury. Over that period Nuge missed 35. In all three years of juniors Scheifele missed a lot of games due to injury. Is he a band aid as well because he has probably a more extensive injury history?

Injuries happen in hockey. But most are just random events. It is reasonable to argue that Scheifele brings things to the table that Nuge does not, primarily because of his size. But I have never bought the injury prone argument.

Over that period.......

I suppose that glosses over the 42 games missed by Nuge in his first season when Schiefele was back in junior.

 

[YEGJuniorFan]

Yeah Shiefele "seems to have turned out OK"... Like 200x the player RNH will ever be. That is what I call gutsy drafting, and with their prospect pool, the Jets will be a contender for a long time.

Not sure if this math computes....

 

[suddeninterest]

wrt Coburn and Bogosian, I see them both as being 4-5 d-men and each are not quite the equal of d-men selected before or after them in their draft year. Similarly, wrt Gudbranson, he was the top d-men in his draft year (no one else selected before #10), and he's also in the 4-5 d-men sort of ranking-- that is, a bit of a miss for a d-men selected #3 overall (and is pretty much inferior to other d-men selected that high in their draft year).

wrt the d-men class of 2016, firstly no elite top class d-men (better than all his compatriots) and the top 3 are all rated below a group of up to 7 forwards. As for being compared to Hanifin, none of them are even chose. And I would suggest that Provorov is also a superior prospect to any of them as well. Werenski, well finally that's about the level that the top d-men class of 2016 are at. And W. was drafted at #8, which is about the measure of where these guys will begin to be selected this year. So, all 3 are a bit of a stretch to go #4 to the Oilers in terms of BPA. A debate as to whether Sergachev/ Juolevi/ or Chychrun are better prospects than the 2013 draft of #7 Nurse or #8 Ristolainen, now that's more of a close call, and it might be fairly argued that the 2016 d-men class is just a touch below N. and R.
wrt the 2012 draft, I'd put the 3 2016 guys in amongst #7 Dumba, #8 Pouliot, and #9 Trouba, with #5 Rielly and #6 Lindholm slightly higher (and #4 Reinhart was a draft mis step). wrt the 2009 draft, I know #2 Hedman was slated to be a potential superstar, and #6 Ekman-Larsson, I don't know remember much hype about him, but ... he's become the value of a top #3 or better draft pick.
and wrt the 2008 draft, it was a year in which the top 3 d-men were significant prizes to behold, and all were supposed to achieve a level higher than that forecast for the top 3 d-men of 2016, who sort of more approximate the #5 pick Schenn.

Of the 2016 Dmen I believe Sergachev is a reasonable pick as he is comparable to Dumba and Pouliot in terms of stats but is also probably 3 inches taller and has 30 pounds on those guys, who went 7 and 8. Id also say he is quite a bit ahead of Nurse offensively at the same age who went 7th in 2016. I'm not gonna get into comparisons with Risto and Lindholm as both played in Europe in their draft years which is a different game, and Rielly only played ~20 games that year. I'd actually say he is pretty similar to Provorov, but again bigger than Provorov and when you consider that it was Sergachev's first year in NA compared to Provorovs 2nd. On top of which 2014-15 Wheat Kings >> 2015-16 Spitfires. Given his play, size and that he had to adjust to the NA game this season I don't think it's at all unreasonable to have him as a 5th or 6th overall given the comparables and where they were drafted. Taking Serg at 4 would be like taking Lindholm at 6. Perhaps a bit of a reach but nothing hugely off the board and it might just work out.

 

[Aequitas]

Over that period.......

I suppose that glosses over the 42 games missed by Nuge in his first season when Schiefele was back in junior.

Buy it or don't buy it, I don't really care.

Trying to argue that scheifele is much better then Nuge is a joke. Just because Nuge was drafted higher doesn't make him a worse player. I wonder what Nuge would look like with the jets defense behind him.

 

[Aceboogie]

There was some talk that Columbus might do something interesting at third. I had multiple people say watch the Blue Jackets at third, not because they will trade, but because of who they might take. This is not a discussion point. As well as Pierre-Luc Dubois and Matthew Tkachuk have played, Jesse Puljujarvi is the clear choice for the Blue Jackets. Central Scouting Director Dan Marr called Puljujarvi “a complete player with a scoring touch.”

http://thehockeywriters.com/emptying-the-combine-notebook/

 

[Zaddy]

http://thehockeywriters.com/emptying-the-combine-notebook/

Erie Otters defenseman Jordan Sambrook had 12 interviews at the Combine. For someone projected as a fifth-round pick, that’s pretty good interest. One interview in particular went very well. The team? The Edmonton Oilers. They of course need defenseman. Sambrook has the tools to develop into a solid defenseman. Don’t be surprised if the Oilers consider taking him with one of their two fifth-round picks, if he’s still on the board.

Could be a good pick. 6'2 RHD who had a pretty solid year in Erie. Doubt he's a 5th rounder though, more likely to get taken in the late 3rd or 4th round.

 

[Zaddy]

http://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-matthews-no-1-because-position-matters-1.503562

Craig Button's final rankings are out.