Prospect Info: Draft Thread | How Far Would You Trade Down?

[Arpeggio]

My issue with taking a defenceman high is that it seems as if defencemen are more difficult to predict than forwards. If you look at an average and up sized forward who scored at an elite clip in junior, the odds are pretty high that they're going to be an above average forward. Defencemen seem to be harder to predict. That said, most recent high picks seem to have turned out quite well, so maybe scouting has gotten better and its not as risky anymore.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Was Yakupov the BPA? Nuge? How's that workin for ya?

at the time of their draft? absolutely

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

My issue with taking a defenceman high is that it seems as if defencemen are more difficult to predict than forwards. If you look at an average and up sized forward who scored at an elite clip in junior, the odds are pretty high that they're going to be an above average forward. Defencemen seem to be harder to predict. That said, most recent high picks seem to have turned out quite well, so maybe scouting has gotten better and its not as risky anymore.

Risk can be worth the reward. Gagner got us a 3rd at the end of the day. Yak maybe a 2nd. Eberle cant get that dman we want. Dougie Hamilton got a first and 2 2nds. Jones got Johansen. Larsson, while underwhelming, could land someone better than eberle im sure.

 

[Halibut]

They also failed the draft for need in 2003 when they wanted to get bigger.
Came away with Pouliot and Jaques. Big men.. needed men.. not best player available. Both crapped the bed hard.

Yup they've failed in the past by picking the wrong player but it doesnt mean that picking for need is always the wrong move. Making that assumption is like the typical Oilers management move of wild swings in opposite directions. Have a problem on defence, trade away all our centers to fill the hole. No depth up front, trade our best defenders to fill that hole.

Going with the consensus best player available is simply a chicken **** move to appease the fans. Find me one draft year where if you did a redraft 5 years later it would match what the scouts projected. It never happens (ok I shouldnt say never because now someone will search the history and find one weird year where it did happen and totally ignore 20+ others that didnt match). Every year the majority of scouts are wrong, every scout is probably wrong about some players. We need to beat the curve and find the player that others are wrong about and chances are it's a defender.

With the depth we have up front now chances are that any forward we draft will be eased into the lineup, hopefully they'll be back in junior. They wont be making much of an impact in the NHL for several years. Even if they do they are more likely to take Yakupov's spot on the third line then they are to be in the top 6 that everyone is talking about. It's not any different than with a defender, we shouldnt be planning on this draft pick being our immediate saviour. Look at other recent top 5 draft pick forwards. Most of them take time to have an impact.

 

[Aceboogie]

Yup. Why listen to what actual GM's say when you can listen to Corey Pronman instead. You can't make this stuff up.

Lol. Yeah forsure, lets listen to the GM whos watched the players once ever. Lets disregard the actual pro scout. The one who is relied on by Bob Mackenzie, Elliote Friedman and all the legitimate hockey writers for info. Why dont they go to genuiouses like Jim Benning for their scouting info

You do realize the GM doesnt actually scout and make the pick right? The scouting department does this. Thatd be embarrassing if you didnt realize this

And do you honestly believe a GM is going to go on a radio station with some no name plug and start tossing out his actual draft rankings? What incentive at all is there to do that? "Hey guys, heres all my cards, take a look!" Good grief.

 

[Raab]

Lol. Yeah forsure, lets listen to the GM whos watched the players once ever. Lets disregard the actual pro scout. The one who is relied on by Bob Mackenzie, Elliote Friedman and all the legitimate hockey writers for info. Why dont they go to genuiouses like Jim Benning for their scouting info

You do realize the GM doesnt actually scout and make the pick right? The scouting department does this. Thatd be embarrassing if you didnt realize this

You're way off base. The GM's definitely get out and scout the top prospects. Chia for example was in Red Deer for the memorial cup.

They're also in discussions all year about these prospects.

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Lol. Yeah forsure, lets listen to the GM whos watched the players once ever. Lets disregard the actual pro scout. The one who is relied on by Bob Mackenzie, Elliote Friedman and all the legitimate hockey writers for info. Why dont they go to genuiouses like Jim Benning for their scouting info

You do realize the GM doesnt actually scout and make the pick right? The scouting department does this. Thatd be embarrassing if you didnt realize this

And do you honestly believe a GM is going to go on a radio station with some no name plug and start tossing out his actual draft rankings? What incentive at all is there to do that? "Hey guys, heres all my cards, take a look!" Good grief.

Some GMs scout, some don't. Some GMs have a very extensive scouting background. I know Treliving and Burke both scout players for the draft.

Pronman isn't a real scout. He's never been employed by an NHL team that I'm aware of. He's a wannabe scout who gets some press. He's one of the least reputable independent scouting sources.

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

My issue with taking a defenceman high is that it seems as if defencemen are more difficult to predict than forwards. If you look at an average and up sized forward who scored at an elite clip in junior, the odds are pretty high that they're going to be an above average forward. Defencemen seem to be harder to predict. That said, most recent high picks seem to have turned out quite well, so maybe scouting has gotten better and its not as risky anymore.

They aren't really much more hard to predict than forwards. The bust rate is very similar between forwards and dmen take high.

The reason to take a defenceman is because young top 3 defencemen are more valuable than wingers. Most GMs try to build through goaltending, defense and centre. Most GMs see the wing as they least important position in the NHL. I think the Oilers have had some failures at the draft because they did not factor in the relative value of wingers vs dmen vs centres. It's extremely hard to trade for good young centres and dmen. Wingers are the easiest to trade for. This is part of the reason why the Yakupov pick was so bad.

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

but facts don't really support your logic. OEL at #6 was the second d-man selected in 2009 (Hedman wen #2 overall behind Tavares), and Rielly at #5 was the third d-men selected in 2012 (Ryan Murray went #2 and Reinhart went #4). So neither OEL nor Rielly were the top d-men selected in their draft years.

also, 2012 was quite a year for drafting d-men. Yes, Takupov went #1, but thereafter there was a flood of d-men selected in the top ten, and the higher a guy was picked didn't necessarily equate with getting the better player. #2 R. Murray, #4 Reinhart, #5 Rielly, #6 Lindholm, #7 Dumba, #8 Pouliot, #9 Trouba, #10 Koekkoek. As of today the best 4 are Murray, Rielly, Lindholm, and Trouba. So if the Oilers pick a "Reinhart" at #4, that's not a win. The 2012 draft was quite an anomaly as it was a very weak year for forwards, and a relatively strong cast of choices in terms of d-men.

but you are correct in your assertion that in most draft years the top d-men (or two or three) end up becoming pretty good players.
for instance, 2015- #5 Hanifin, #7 Provorov, #8 Werenski; 2014- N/A; 2013- #4 Seth Jones, #7 Nurse, #8 Ristolainen; 2012- #2 R. Murray, #4 Reinhart- a miss. #5 Rielly, #6 Lindholm, #7 Dumba, #8 Pouliot, #9 Trouba; 2011- #4 Larsson, #9 Hamilton, #10 Brodin; 2010- #3 Gudbranson, #10 McIlrath- a miss, #12 Fowler, #13 Gormley- a miss; 2009- #2 Hedman, #6 Ekman-Larsson, #9 Cowen- a miss; 2008- #2 Doughty, #3 Bogosian- a miss, #4 Pietrangelo, #5 Schenn- a miss; 2007- #4 Hickey- a miss, #5 Alzner; 2006- N/A; 2005- N/A; 2004- N/A; 2003 (the golden year- #7 Suter, #9 Phaneuf, #8 Coburn- a miss, #14 Seabrook

but, the list also shows some misses, and the level of play of the top 3 d-men in this draft class (Sergachev, Juolevi, and Chychrun), I would suggest is a touch below that achieved in most other draft years (such as 2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008), and say sort of on par with 2010 or 2007. This year does not have any high-end level prospect to anchor the d-men class, no Hanifin, no Jones, no Murray, no Larsson, no Gudbranson (although he is a miss), no Hedman, no Doughty.

Good analysis overall. However Coburn and Bogosian are not misses at all. Both solid top 3-4 defencemen who have good value. Both have been traded for quite a bit. Gudbranson isn't a miss either although he might've been take too high. He was also traded for good value.

I think you're a little hard on this dmen class. I've seen them compared favourably to Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski.

 

[oilinblood]

Lol. Yeah forsure, lets listen to the GM whos watched the players once ever. Lets disregard the actual pro scout. The one who is relied on by Bob Mackenzie, Elliote Friedman and all the legitimate hockey writers for info. Why dont they go to genuiouses like Jim Benning for their scouting info

You do realize the GM doesnt actually scout and make the pick right? The scouting department does this. Thatd be embarrassing if you didnt realize this

And do you honestly believe a GM is going to go on a radio station with some no name plug and start tossing out his actual draft rankings? What incentive at all is there to do that? "Hey guys, heres all my cards, take a look!" Good grief.

pretty much what i was thinking...lets trust a GM that saw a dude 3 times instead of a scout that has seen them 10-15 -20 times and reviews game tape, interviews their family, talks to their coaches, talks to the players, knows the inner working of the junior teams...

or better yet lets take the opinion of an internet poster right.

in the end GMs are steered to see guys their scouts recommend...and then those GMs make revies of those few players and then decisions are made. same with pro scouting...gm talks to pro scouts then will likely take a quick look himself. confirm. then decide.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Lol. Yeah forsure, lets listen to the GM whos watched the players once ever. Lets disregard the actual pro scout. The one who is relied on by Bob Mackenzie, Elliote Friedman and all the legitimate hockey writers for info. Why dont they go to genuiouses like Jim Benning for their scouting info

You do realize the GM doesnt actually scout and make the pick right? The scouting department does this. Thatd be embarrassing if you didnt realize this

And do you honestly believe a GM is going to go on a radio station with some no name plug and start tossing out his actual draft rankings? What incentive at all is there to do that? "Hey guys, heres all my cards, take a look!" Good grief.

I remember when Pronman openly admitted that he hadn't watched players live. His "scouting" consisted of watching his laptop. Maybe throw in a "hero" chart for good measure.

 

[I am the Liquor]

at the time of their draft? absolutely

If hockey games were won or lost with draft rankings we would be a dynasty not a lottery.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

If hockey games were won or lost with draft rankings we would be a dynasty not a lottery.

easy to say they were the wrong picks now (although I'm not sure how you can say RNH is a bad pick...he's a good player)

hindsight is 20/20

everyone had these guys at #1...every major draft resource

 

[I am the Liquor]

IATL what is with your Stauffer hate/anger? It's bordering on unhealthy. Every time that guy is mentioned you have a snarky comment about him. I can accept you don't like or respect him but just my opinion, you need to let things go. It will make you happier and bring more joy and good fortune to your life.

Anyways, Steve Simmons said the same thing about Jets preferring Puljujärvi over Laine

Steve Simmons and Bob Stauffer. It really doesn't get more rock solid than that. I don't hate Bob. I'm not angry at Bob. I just can't take anything he says about the Oilers seriously because he is a paid PR shill for the team.

 

[I am the Liquor]

easy to say they were the wrong picks now (although I'm not sure how you can say RNH is a bad pick...he's a good player)

hindsight is 20/20

everyone had these guys at #1...every major draft resource

I'm saying the BPA argument is a farce.

 

[Canovin]

I'm saying the BPA argument is a farce.

Nothing wrong with drafting BPA. You just need to surround them with the right veterans.

Tkachuk, Dubois, Sergachev and Chychrun are all fine prospects. It comes down to, do you want to insulate them with RNH, Ebs Yak or do you go out and get guys like Lucic, Eriksson, Nielsen etc to show them what it takes to be NHLers?

 

[doubledown99]

Steve Simmons and Bob Stauffer. It really doesn't get more rock solid than that. I don't hate Bob. I'm not angry at Bob. I just can't take anything he says about the Oilers seriously because he is a paid PR shill for the team.

Hey part of what you say is true (Paid PR guy) but the truth is that he does have access to our GM (here is a link with him interviewing Chia https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/th...t-280851784/c-44143003?tag=event&tagValue=NHL Draft) and has contacts with other GMs as he has them on his show (Nill, Yzerman, Francis, Chayka, etc). He also talks to player agents so he's more in the know than anyone on HF. Yes he doesn't reveal everything he knows and I'm sure some of the things he says is to generate interest and buzz for his show but not everything he is saying is BS. At least that's how I interpret it. Maybe I'm a sucker

 

[I am the Liquor]

Nothing wrong with drafting BPA. You just need to surround them with the right veterans.

Tkachuk, Dubois, Sergachev and Chychrun are all fine prospects. It comes down to, do you want to insulate them with RNH, Ebs Yak or do you go out and get guys like Lucic, Eriksson, Nielsen etc to show them what it takes to be NHLers?

What is BPA? BPA at the time of the draft? Projected BPA? Based on what? Hopes and dreams? Premonitions? Hero charts? Whose in the stall next to you in the bathroom?

Sometimes its obvious, McDavid, Lindros, Crosby etc. Most times it really isn't. Just look how much rankings change over the draft year. Tyler Benson was touted as a top pick in his class in Bantam even. Now he may be a second or third rounder. Not even in the conversation.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Hey part of what you say is true (Paid PR guy) but the truth is that he does have access to our GM (here is a link with him interviewing Chia https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/th...t-280851784/c-44143003?tag=event&tagValue=NHL Draft) and has contacts with other GMs as he has them on his show (Nill, Yzerman, Francis, Chayka, etc). He also talks to player agents so he's more in the know than anyone on HF. Yes he doesn't reveal everything he knows and I'm sure some of the things he says is to generate interest and buzz for his show but not everything he is saying is BS. At least that's how I interpret it. Maybe I'm a sucker

I encourage you to like Bob as much as you want to. I would also ask that you would extend me the same courtesy. If our perspectives are vastly different, that is OK.

 

[Canovin]

What is BPA? BPA at the time of the draft? Projected BPA? Based on what? Hopes and dreams? Premonitions? Hero charts? Whose in the stall next to you in the bathroom?

Sometimes its obvious, McDavid, Lindros, Crosby etc. Most times it really isn't. Just look how much rankings change over the draft year. Tyler Benson was touted as a top pick in his class in Bantam even. Now he may be a second or third rounder. Not even in the conversation.

Consensus best player available at the time. It's a safer route. Look at the Jets for example. Straight to the point and no monkey business. They weren't trying to be the smartest people in the room and drafted guys who most scouts thought should be taken at the time. Sure you might hit and miss but there's a better chance of getting it right going with the consensus.

Benson hasn't shown enough whereas other prospects projected to be just as good and have a bigger body of work in a stacked draft year.

 

[Raab]

Consensus best player available at the time. It's a safer route. Look at the Jets for example. Straight to the point and no monkey business. They weren't trying to be the smartest people in the room and drafted guys who most scouts thought should be taken at the time. Sure you might hit and miss but there's a better chance of getting it right going with the consensus.

Benson hasn't shown enough whereas other prospects projected to be just as good and have a bigger body of work in a stacked draft year.

Yes because the Jets clearly have a winning model... Even with Trouba, Byufglien, Myers, Enstrom on d they still can't make the playoffs. Everyone of those guys are better then any dman we have in Edmonton.

BPA is totally dependent on the person you ask. For example if you ask me Sergachev is the best player available because a) he already has nhl size, b ) he has better puck handling, shot, and skating on part with the two forwards, c) he's a late birthday and is still maturing, d) if he becomes a top pairing dman they're almost impossible to acquire.

You ask another poster and they could probably make an argument for any of Dubois, Tkachuk, Brown, Keller, Jost, Juolevi, Nylander, Chychrun at 4.

All I know is I can't take anyone seriously who puts Sergachev at 17 in this year's draft class. I don't know what Pronman was watching to come to that conclusion, when IMO Sergachev was clearly one of the best players on that Windsor team. I have him ahead of Brown for sure.

 

[Canovin]

Yes because the Jets clearly have a winning model... Even with Trouba, Byufglien, Myers, Enstrom on d they still can't make the playoffs. Everyone of those guys are better then any dman we have in Edmonton.

BPA is totally dependent on the person you ask. For example if you ask me Sergachev is the best player available because a) he already has nhl size, b ) he has better puck handling, shot, and skating on part with the two forwards, c) he's a late birthday and is still maturing, d) if he becomes a top pairing dman they're almost impossible to acquire.

You ask another poster and they could probably make an argument for any of Dubois, Tkachuk, Brown, Keller, Jost, Juolevi, Nylander, Chychrun at 4.

All I know is I can't take anyone seriously who puts Sergachev at 17 in this year's draft class. I don't know what Pronman was watching to come to that conclusion, when IMO Sergachev was clearly one of the best players on that Windsor team. I have him ahead of Brown for sure.

The Jets has been the most consistent drafting team since coming into the league. It's not like they had 4 1st overalls and high 2nds like we did and still not have anything in the cupboard.

Not consensus BPA. Consensus is based on majority.

 

[Raab]

The Jets has been the most consistent drafting team since coming into the league. It's not like they had 4 1st overalls and high 2nds like we did and still not have anything in the cupboard.

Not consensus BPA. Consensus is based on majority.

And yet where did they finish last year? If your using Atlanta/Winnipeg as your team building model something is wrong. I mean how much better is Winnipeg is they had gone against the grain and taken Pietrangelo over Bogosian? Or why even have a scouting staff if your just going to trust some hockey writers opinion?

 

[Bangers]

I remember doing an analysis on the draft scouting reports, where players were selected, and how good the players became.

Overall, if a GM fired all of his scouts and chose according to ISS's rankings, often their draft class would have been better. Not all GMs, and obviously a team's development system plays a huge part, but it was a bit shocking how badly some GMs draft.

In terms of predicting the actual draft, Bob's rankings tended to be the most accurate.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

And yet where did they finish last year? If your using Atlanta/Winnipeg as your team building model something is wrong. I mean how much better is Winnipeg is they had gone against the grain and taken Pietrangelo over Bogosian? Or why even have a scouting staff if your just going to trust some hockey writers opinion?

so? doesn't change the fact they've got a really nice base of prospect assets like Ehlers, Connor, Morrisey, Petan, Hellebuyck