Prospect Info: Draft Thread | How Far Would You Trade Down?

[vincent1999]

According to this:
Patrik Laine has 42% chance
Jesse Puljarvi has 53% chance

of being avaliable at 4.. I'll take it!

Laine's % chance of being available at #4 = 0%
Puljujarvi's % chance of being available at #4 = 1- 10% or lower

(cos if Columbus wants Dubois, mostly likely cos of LW/C, or Tkachuk LW, then they'll get an extra pick or prospect from Edmonton and go down to #4 and let Edmonton have #3 knowing that Edmonton will take Puljujarvi-- it's unlikely Columbus would drop down to #5 and make a trade with Vancouver cos then they don't have control over which of Dubois/ Tkachuk is available to them)

whoever, however these %'s were arrived at, it's fantasy in this particular draft year to say out loud that Laine might go later than #2. I wonder what the prospect was that McDavid or Eichel would go to #4 last year. Everyone knows that it was 0%, but this chart probably had it 31% and 42% respectively. What a joke.

 

[vincent1999]

Based on? Shiny new toy syndrome consistently blows my mind.

interesting to compare Dubois and Draisaitl. PPG in draft year- Dub 1.50; Drai 1.59. Others, for instance, from 2014 draft year were Reinhart 1.75, Bennett 1.56, Dal Colle 1.46

Dubois isn't a scrub player, but neither was Draisaitl. Probably pretty comparable players in terms of draft value if they had been in the same year.

of course, the other comparison is Tkachuk who has 1.96 PPG in this his draft year. And this is in the tougher OHL as well. However, the big but must be that he played on the same team (and the same line) as Marner and Dvorak?. Marner put up 2.03 PPG in his draft year, and 2.13 PPG this year with T. and D as line mates and team mates. Remember way back that Gagner put up 2.13 PPG playing along side P. Kane 2.38 PPG and Kostitsyn. And although not similar the same analogy, Dylan Strome put up 1.72 PPG when playing on the same Erie team as McDavid 2.52 PPG

where exactly to position Tkachuk this year and in relation to Dubois is the $62,000 question. Dubois' a better skater methinks, albeit he played for Cape Breton in the Q. Tkachuk's London Knights, well they went all the way this year, and had a good regular season as well. Ahh, Marner's such an OHL talent though, he makes everybody look good. Hmmm, can't think of a son of quality NHL player (such as Keith was) that ever lived up to the same "billing"???

 

[Spawn]

interesting to compare Dubois and Draisaitl. PPG in draft year- Dub 1.50; Drai 1.59. Others, for instance, from 2014 draft year were Reinhart 1.75, Bennett 1.56, Dal Colle 1.46

Dubois isn't a scrub player, but neither was Draisaitl. Probably pretty comparable players in terms of draft value if they had been in the same year.

of course, the other comparison is Tkachuk who has 1.96 PPG in this his draft year. And this is in the tougher OHL as well. However, the big but must be that he played on the same team (and the same line) as Marner and Dvorak?. Marner put up 2.03 PPG in his draft year, and 2.13 PPG this year with T. and D as line mates and team mates. Remember way back that Gagner put up 2.13 PPG playing along side P. Kane 2.38 PPG and Kostitsyn. And although not similar the same analogy, Dylan Strome put up 1.72 PPG when playing on the same Erie team as McDavid 2.52 PPG

where exactly to position Tkachuk this year and in relation to Dubois is the $62,000 question. Dubois' a better skater methinks, albeit he played for Cape Breton in the Q. Tkachuk's London Knights, well they went all the way this year, and had a good regular season as well. Ahh, Marner's such an OHL talent though, he makes everybody look good. Hmmm, can't think of a son of quality NHL player (such as Keith was) that ever lived up to the same "billing"???

Brett Hull and Mark Howe are a couple. Parise too.

 

[tinfish]

I like Dubois over Tkachuk, but neither player helps this team next year, so it's had to get excited about this draft for me. Really hoped we'd pick top 3. If puljujarvi falls to us.. well that would be awesome, and it makes it hard to trade the pick until columbus makes their pick.

 

[Kolja]

If puljujarvi falls to us.. well that would be awesome, and it makes it hard to trade the pick until columbus makes their pick.

Don't belive the pick will be traded at all:

 

[VainGretzky]

Notice how Tkachuk has dropped to the 3rd page on the prospect board now that the Oilers are likely to take him.

 

[40oz]

Laine's % chance of being available at #4 = 0%
Puljujarvi's % chance of being available at #4 = 1- 10% or lower

(cos if Columbus wants Dubois, mostly likely cos of LW/C, or Tkachuk LW, then they'll get an extra pick or prospect from Edmonton and go down to #4 and let Edmonton have #3 knowing that Edmonton will take Puljujarvi-- it's unlikely Columbus would drop down to #5 and make a trade with Vancouver cos then they don't have control over which of Dubois/ Tkachuk is available to them)

whoever, however these %'s were arrived at, it's fantasy in this particular draft year to say out loud that Laine might go later than #2. I wonder what the prospect was that McDavid or Eichel would go to #4 last year. Everyone knows that it was 0%, but this chart probably had it 31% and 42% respectively. What a joke.

Here it is. Although I'm reluctant to post this stuff since posters on here seem to have trouble understanding what the intent of the model is. IMO, this is great for talking points and identifying trends in the current draft based on how previous ones have gone. If you expect this to tell you which players are going where you are going to be disappointed.

Honestly, its a fun exercise and I'm thankful that people take the time to make things like this and share it with us. At very least it starts a conversation and that how you make these things better/useful over time.

 

[40oz]

On the Dubois vs. Draisaitl debate, Corey Pronman ranked Dubois 26th and Draisaitl 27th on his (insider) list of top 30 draft prospects of the last 5 years. It was a ranking based on info at the time of each draft, no hindsight.

For the record Yakupov was 13th and McDavid was 1st.

 

[Raab]

Don't belive the pick will be traded at all:

FFS again with this core ********. Does anyone need any proof that MacT and Lowe are still running things? How many times did we hear Chia say anything about a core in Boston.

 

[McOilbleeder]

So if we draft Tkachuk, what is best for him next season? Is he NHL ready or do we send him down?

 

[Psychoil]

Don't belive the pick will be traded at all:

That's not what the tweet says at all. It's says were not trading down

 

[McDoused]

FFS again with this core ********. Does anyone need any proof that MacT and Lowe are still running things? How many times did we hear Chia say anything about a core in Boston.

I was thinking the same but realistically Chia's core will be a lot different then MacT's, Tambo or Lowes. If he wants his own core, it's understandable. I also think MacT got ripped a bit hard for not trading the Nurse and Draisaitl picks. Fans have a hard time trading those players now.

From a PR move Chia should make the pick sound like a core piece. It will drive the price up. If teams don't want to give up a top pairing guy, they aren't going to get that pick.

 

[Halibut]

So if we draft Tkachuk, what is best for him next season? Is he NHL ready or do we send him down?

I believe another year in the minors would be best. Likely they can give him 9 games to see how close he is to the NHL. If he makes it he should get sheltered time outside the top 6 and some PP time.

Of course standard Oilers procedure is to chuck him out with McDavid, get wowed by the tons of points he puts up in his first season and then ***** a couple years later that his defensive game is not where it should be.

 

[Raab]

I was thinking the same but realistically Chia's core will be a lot different then MacT's, Tambo or Lowes. If he wants his own core, it's understandable. I also think MacT got ripped a bit hard for not trading the Nurse and Draisaitl picks. Fans have a hard time trading those players now.

From a PR move Chia should make the pick sound like a core piece. It will drive the price up. If teams don't want to give up a top pairing guy, they aren't going to get that pick.

This core crap is why the team never gets anywhere. They value certain players over others. It's doesn't create a team environment. The only "core" guy on Edmonton should be Mcdavid and even then he shouldn't be untouchable if he becomes a problem. Although I don't see McDavid becoming a problem and see him trying to soak up any information he can get from all the vets. Can't say that about the rest of our "core" guys over the years. It's just a horrible term when you're building a team.

 

[Tarus]

That's not what the tweet says at all. It's says were not trading down

The tweet also speculates at the quality of player they would get by using the pick to draft someone, which infers that the pick won't be traded at all.

 

[Faelko]

FFS again with this core ********. Does anyone need any proof that MacT and Lowe are still running things? How many times did we hear Chia say anything about a core in Boston.

I think you're maybe reading a little too much into this. Those are Bobs words and by the way he emphasized "core" you can tell it was for the lack of a better word.

Anyone thinking that Lowe and MacT are still in charge have their tin foil hats attached a little to firmly to their head.

 

[Zaddy]

So if we draft Tkachuk, what is best for him next season? Is he NHL ready or do we send him down?

He said himself that he would need a "huge summer" if he were to be ready for NHL this fall. So I'd say it's quite unlikely, but not impossible. If we end up drafting him I'd prefer him getting another year in London though, taking on a leadership role and being the go-to guy there. Also gives him another year to work on his skating.

 

[Raab]

I think you're maybe reading a little too much into this. Those are Bobs words and by the way he emphasized "core" you can tell it was for the lack of a better word.

Anyone thinking that Lowe and MacT are still in charge have their tin foil hats attached a little to firmly to their head.

If you say so. Why not just say we're getting a great player like every well run team in the league does? And MacT and Lowe are both still here. If you don't think they're involved feel free to check their profiles on Edmonton Oilers.Com

I'm about ready to become a flames fan the way these monkeys are running the team into the ground. It's a god damn embarrassment as a fan.

 

[jukon]

Hypothetically, would you rather have 1st overall this year or 3 picks in the top ten? Let's say 4th, 7th and 10th for example.

 

[YEGJuniorFan]

So if we draft Tkachuk, what is best for him next season? Is he NHL ready or do we send him down?

Marner and Dvorak are both turning pro, so I think he should stay and be the top player in London. No need to play him in Edmonton this year.

 

[Raab]

Hypothetically, would you rather have 1st overall this year or 3 picks in the top ten? Let's say 4th, 7th and 10th for example.

For a team 1st overall is more valuable due to the marketing potential of the prospect. I'd be tempted to make that deal though. Tkachuk, Sergachev, and Jost would be quite a lot to come out of the draft with although in saying that Matthews will be a #1 center in the league pretty much guaranteed and your giving that up for maybes. Would really depend what the scouts say if you take out the business side of things.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

the more I think about it the more I'd rather trade down and take a Segrachev or Fabbro or McAvoy.

Tkachuk is going to go back sans Marner and probably regress. Dubois will likely get better if sent back but I'm not sure if he's mean enough to add to the wing.

 

[Raab]

So if we draft Tkachuk, what is best for him next season? Is he NHL ready or do we send him down?

I think he at minimum gets the 9 game look. He's one of the older players in this draft so I could see him sticking with a team on the 2nd or 3rd line. To me he's already better then a guys like Hendricks or Korpikoski.

 

[I am the Liquor]

I think you're maybe reading a little too much into this. Those are Bobs words and by the way he emphasized "core" you can tell it was for the lack of a better word.

Anyone thinking that Lowe and MacT are still in charge have their tin foil hats attached a little to firmly to their head.

I wouldn't be so quick to say that. This is the Oilers under Daryl Katz. Anything is possible. Literally. Those guys are still around. And they aren't going anywhere. That doesn't look good. Probably isn't good.

 

[Digger12]

I would say that if the Oilers hold onto the pick and draft Tkachuk, it's a 90% chance that Chiarelli will send him back to London for at least his 18 yr old season.

Now if the Oilers draft someone else such as PLD, Sergachev or even Brown, maybe that %chance goes down because they are bigger bodies who can skate...and of course if they somehow lucked into Puljujarvi he's a slam dunk to make the team out of camp IMO.

That's not meant to be a slam on Tkachuk at all, he's got lots of arrows pointing up but I'd say that of all the top players in this draft he's the one that would most benefit from one more season in junior.