Draft Lotto Tracking Final 9 Games

[nafrelio]

For a week or two there I was actually checking the wildcard standings instead of the league standings on tsn...my mistake.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

This is baloney.

Unless tongue in cheek.

Is this a picture of you?

because you must be drunk.

 

[Joey Moss]

Draft lottery is only 3 weeks away.. crazy.

I think we finish 6th entering lottery.

 

[A91]

Tankathon | 2019 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

1st try got a lotto pick
8th try got 1st overall

The Connor McDavid era

 

[BlackDogg]

If all teams continue and re-produce their last 10 paces.. and we went 0-9-0 we would end up in 5th last place.

I will take those odds

 

[redgrant]

Hopefully we lose every game and get a higher draft pick.

This is for the best.

 

[A91]

 

[thadd]

Love how the OP has changed to showing us what needs to happen for us to sink to dead last.
Not complaining.
Playoffs aren't happening.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Appreciate the work @Chabot84!

Too bad the original thread is now irrelevant.

 

[Chabot84]

Appreciate the work @Chabot84!

Too bad the original thread is now irrelevant.

Yeah I think at this point Oilers nation obviously want and deserve playoffs after only making it once in the past 13 years.. such a good hockey market here too. Although not mathematically eliminated yet, and I'm still going to update the playoff portion of this thread as well, I just don't see a team playing like they believe playoffs are possible right now.. maybe now that they most likely believe they are out the pressure will be off and they will loosen up a little.. the guys will prob try to help MCD and DRAI hit their scoring titles for fun... and while doing so accidently win the next 5 games in a row and all of a sudden we will be back in it

Updated.

 

[Chabot84]

Edmonton schedule is now entering what was supposed to be the easier games.. that's why that stretch of games we just went through was so important.

We play Ottawa, Kings, Dallas and Anaheim. Watch them go 4 for 4.

Unfortunately we have left ourselves zero room for error and even running the table from here does not guarantee playoffs as we rely on others.

Updated both Playoffs and Draft Lotto.

 

[Chabot84]

Could pass Vancouver and Chicago today as Van plays CGY and Chicago plays Colorado...

Minny plays Carolina (who are trying to hold onto a wild card spot in the east)

Arizona plays NJD --- doubt they will do us any favors but you never know.

We play Ottawa... but do not underestimate them.. should be easy win though

Honestly though we would prob prefer for Chicago to beat Colorado tonight as we are point behind them and if you look and compare below... Colorado is tracking way too good right now they need to slow down:

CURRENT RECORDS:

Edmonton 2-2-0

Vancouver 0-0-0 (added with only 8 games left for them)
St. Louis 3-0-1
Dallas 2-2-1
Arizona 1-2-1
Minnesota 2-2-1
Colorado 3-1-0
Chicago 1-1-1

If the Oilers go 8-1-3 or 9-2-1 to finish the season;

We would need the teams ahead of us to have the following records at maximum for points:

Vancouver 6-1-1 (added with only 8 games left)
St.louis 4-8-0
Dallas 5-7-1
Arizona 6-5-1
Minnesota 7-5-0
Colorado 8-4-0
Chicago 8-4-1

If the Oilers go 9-1-2 or 10-2-0 to finish the season;

We would need the teams ahead of us to have the following records at maximum for points:

Vancouver 7-1-0 (added with only 8 games left)
St.louis 4-7-1
Dallas 6-7-0
Arizona 7-5-0
Minnesota 7-5-1
Colorado 8-4-1
Chicago 9-4-0

 

[Chabot84]

Edmonton drops crucial point against Ottawa... Updated.


CURRENT RECORDS: (teams we should care about highlighted red... actually I can remove St. Louis its now impossible we pass them.

As you can see ALL TEAMS with the exception of Colorado have been trying to gift us playoffs... had we just won the games against Ottawa and New Jersey we would be looking a REAL SHOT at a playoff berth right now.

Edmonton 2-2-1

Vancouver 0-1-0 (added with only 8 games left for them)
St. Louis 4-0-1 (IMPOSSIBLE TO PASS THEM NOW)
Dallas 2-3-1
Arizona 1-3-2
Minnesota 2-3-1
Colorado 4-1-1 <--- On pace for 8-2-2 = cant pass them
Chicago 2-2-1

If the Oilers go 8-1-3 or 9-2-1 to finish the season; <-- Only Option Left = Run Table

We would need the teams ahead of us to have the following records at maximum for points:

Vancouver 6-1-1 (added with only 8 games left)
St.louis 4-8-0
Dallas 5-7-1
Arizona 6-5-1
Minnesota 7-5-0
Colorado 8-4-0
Chicago 8-4-1

 

[Chabot84]

There is still the potential for a 6 point swing on Dallas over the next 3 games...

but math says we need to run the table here most likely cant afford another loss.

 

[Joey Moss]

There is still the potential for a 6 point swing on Dallas over the next 3 games...

but math says we need to run the table here most likely cant afford another loss.

Dallas and Edmonton also aren't the only teams in the league. It's like people forget this, there's 5-6 other teams in better situations than us.

 

[Chabot84]

Dallas and Edmonton also aren't the only teams in the league. It's like people forget this, there's 5-6 other teams in better situations than us.

Yeah but look at how they are tracking.. Colorado is the only one tracking like they gonna make playoffs when compared to us running the table... its still possible. But we aren't running the table so...

 

[Kyle McMahon]

Dallas and Edmonton also aren't the only teams in the league. It's like people forget this, there's 5-6 other teams in better situations than us.

This is true, but Dallas, Arizona, Minnesota, and Chicago have ALL slumped the last few games. That's what makes this so frustrating. Two weeks ago it looked like 87 points would make the playoffs...and it still looks like that will be the case. Hell, 85 points doing the trick wouldn't be shocking. Nobody has mounted any sort of charge besides Colorado. Meaning that if we could have just managed to take 4/4 points from two AHL-caliber teams in New Jersey and Ottawa, at home no less, we'd still have a conceivable chance. We'd be three points out with games against the two teams in the WC positions yet to be played. Win those two, go 3-2-0 in the other five, and we'd honestly have had a coin-flip's chance of making it in.

We got every damn break imaginable on the out of town scoreboard for a week straight. Unheard of at this time of year. And this team still found a way to make the last two weeks irrelevant with their own ineptitude. Although in saying that, would it honestly shock anyone if we won the next two games, Colorado and Minnesota both lose the next two, the door was miraculously opened a crack yet again...and then we lose at home to Anaheim to get "eliminated" for like the 4th time this month? I almost expect that to happen at this point.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

If the Oilers were to win out they would still have a decent chance finishing at 88 points. Colorado, Minnesota and Chicago have tough schedules and if they went .500 Colorado would finish with 87, Minny with 85 and Chicago with 83. Arizona plays Chicago, then Colorado, then Minnesota so at least one of those teams loses every night; then Arizona plays LA, Vegas and Winnipeg so not an easy schedule for them either. Obviously the Oilers winning out with games coming up against Vegas, Colorado and Calgary on the road and the Sharks at home is highly unlikely...but it's still a possibility.

Losing out on the other hand is a much more likely possibility, and for the best me thinks. And losing the final game in Calgary is palatable as long as somebody lays a beat down on Tkachuk. Last game of the season and last game before the Flames start the playoffs, there's not really a better time to get some retribution.

 

[Soundwave]

It's actually hilarious how easily they probably could've made the playoffs this year, but they pissed it away to give Chia another chance.

 

[BlackDogg]

It's actually hilarious how easily they probably could've made the playoffs this year, but they pissed it away to give Chia another chance.

They gave him another chance, to avoid looking stupid for a while longer. Now they just look doubly stupid.

 

[Chabot84]

This is true, but Dallas, Arizona, Minnesota, and Chicago have ALL slumped the last few games. That's what makes this so frustrating. Two weeks ago it looked like 87 points would make the playoffs...and it still looks like that will be the case. Hell, 85 points doing the trick wouldn't be shocking. Nobody has mounted any sort of charge besides Colorado. Meaning that if we could have just managed to take 4/4 points from two AHL-caliber teams in New Jersey and Ottawa, at home no less, we'd still have a conceivable chance. We'd be three points out with games against the two teams in the WC positions yet to be played. Win those two, go 3-2-0 in the other five, and we'd honestly have had a coin-flip's chance of making it in.

We got every damn break imaginable on the out of town scoreboard for a week straight. Unheard of at this time of year. And this team still found a way to make the last two weeks irrelevant with their own ineptitude. Although in saying that, would it honestly shock anyone if we won the next two games, Colorado and Minnesota both lose the next two, the door was miraculously opened a crack yet again...and then we lose at home to Anaheim to get "eliminated" for like the 4th time this month? I almost expect that to happen at this point.

I feel the same. They could have easily made this exciting.. the worst part is that in those games where we lost to AHL teams you couldn't even see the desperation on them to win.. its like they didn't even think they had a chance at playoffs? How come we can see that there was a decent chance and they couldn't?? I've been preaching our chances were decent since just before the New Jersey game and all the Oilers have done since then is sabotage themselves to make sure they wont make it. The math looked exciting to me you know.. and this result by the other teams was exactly what we were hoping for.. the Oilers just didn't produce.

Dallas wins. Minny loses. Updated.

 

[Chabot84]

Assuming Edmonton wins next 4 games:

Colorado plays: Vegas, Arizona, St Louis and Edmonton Record: 1-3-0
We catch 6 points on them putting us 1 point behind w/ game in hand with 2 games to go. (They win against Arizona)

Dallas plays: Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver and PHI Record 1-3-0
We catch 6 points on them putting us 4 points behind with game in hand. So 2 points behind with 2 games to go.

Arizona plays: Chicago, Minny, Colorado, Kings Record 2-2-0 They lose against Chicago and Colorado. We catch 4 points on them putting us 1 point behind them with a game in hand and 2 games to go. (3 for Edmonton we are in control if we pass them or not)

Minny plays: Vegas, Arizona, Winnipeg and Boston. Record 0-4-0
We catch 8 points on them putting us 3 points ahead.

Chicago plays: Arizona, Kings, San Jose and Winnipeg. Record 2-2-0.
We catch 4 points on them putting us 2 points ahead.

Edmonton plays: Kings, Dallas, Anaheim and Vegas.

FOCUS ON THE NEXT 4 GAMES.. one at a time and win all 4 and some magic can happen....

Standings after 4 games:

Wild Card w/ 3 games to go for Edmonton

Dallas (2 points behind because of game in hand)
Colorado (1 point behind with a game in hand)

Arizona (1 point behind with a game in hand)
Edmonton
Chicago (2 points ahead)
Minny (3 points ahead)​

 

[Kyle McMahon]

I feel the same. They could have easily made this exciting.. the worst part is that in those games where we lost to AHL teams you couldn't even see the desperation on them to win.. its like they didn't even think they had a chance at playoffs? How come we can see that there was a decent chance and they couldn't?? I've been preaching our chances were decent since just before the New Jersey game and all the Oilers have done since then is sabotage themselves to make sure they wont make it. The math looked exciting to me you know.. and this result by the other teams was exactly what we were hoping for.. the Oilers just didn't produce.

Dallas wins. Minny loses. Updated.

Yep. The math was never the huge stumbling block that some made it out to be when there were suggestions that we needed to run the table with 14 or 15 games left. We only needed to go 10-4 most likely. And four of those games should have been complete slam dunks. 6-4 in the "tough" games was no easy task of course, but was hardly unattainable with some strong efforts and sharp goaltending.

It's funny to think back on all those years where we ripped off runs of 12-2-2, etc in March but still missed the playoffs by a point because you needed 95 to make the playoffs. The one time a measly 86 points might be the cut line, this team doesn't even bother to run the race. Even a league-average level of effort remains beyond what this crew is willing to deliver for more than a game or two at a time.

 

[Chabot84]

Yep. The math was never the huge stumbling block that some made it out to be when there were suggestions that we needed to run the table with 14 or 15 games left. We only needed to go 10-4 most likely. And four of those games should have been complete slam dunks. 6-4 in the "tough" games was no easy task of course, but was hardly unattainable with some strong efforts and sharp goaltending.

It's funny to think back on all those years where we ripped off runs of 12-2-2, etc in March but still missed the playoffs by a point because you needed 95 to make the playoffs. The one time a measly 86 points might be the cut line, this team doesn't even bother to run the race. Even a league-average level of effort remains beyond what this crew is willing to deliver for more than a game or two at a time.

If we win the next 4 games people will start to see the "Hope" again. I don't care if we actually make the playoffs I just wish they made it interesting... this stretch would be our playoffs after all. They can't even give us hope.. its depressing lol

I built this thread hoping they were at least going to put on a show.. you know what I mean.

 

[alphahelix]

If col/ arz go .500 and we win out, we are in. So, not great but still not impossible amazingly.