Draft Lotto Tracking Final 9 Games

[BudBundy]

At the end of January, this team was only 4 points out, with two teams to climb over, and had Klefbom, Sekera, and Russell coming back from injury. The upcoming schedule looked friendly with a long home stand and non-playoff team opponents. That was when we had an actual, not just fringe mathematical, chance. They proceeded to shart the bedsheets something like 1-8-1. The season ended a month ago.

 

[Todd from Leduc]

Hoping we can go on a little 10 game streak run here.

 

[Drivesaitl]

The eye test says we have no chance but the Math says we can still make it. Added the new possibility of going 11-1-0 to the thread and updated last nights games.

Before I even broke it down to this length of visual.. I was saying we are most likely going to lose a game in this road stretch.. I was secretly hoping we wouldn't. If we can get through St. Louis and Columbus.. then we will have a much "easier" stretch of games against Ottawa, Kings, Dallas and then Anaheim.

Hitch can keep on saying we only need to win 2 of the next 3.. but it was really 3 of the next 4.. then we have one more loss budgeted for the final stretch of games against Vegas, Colorado, San Jose and Calgary. So we better come into those games firing on all cylinders to even stand a chance.. Need to run the table from HERE to THERE.

I'm confused. There are 10 games left, you updated, but the bolded is saying 12 games left. huh?

 

[MikeGrier99]

The season ended a month ago.

All this talk of going 9-1-2 or whatever, then we lose to a team the Condors probably would've beaten in New Jersey. This year will go down in Nicholson/Lowe lore as a "near miss" that "just needed a few tweaks" when it was a downright pathetic year. This was one of the slowest races for the 8th seed in recent memory and we hovered around a 5% chance of making it, not even staying within a realistic shot with 10+ games left. Our expectations have gotten so terribly low. The goal was to compete for the cup, not fizzle out for the final seed. Dark times in Edmonton, going to be one hell of a clean up job for the next GM.

 

[Chabot84]

@Drivesaitl Do you want me to change the title of the thread too everytime I update it? Cmon now... this isn't very hard to understand

I really thought I made this idiot proof.. and I know you are smarter then that and just being a dick. I know things suck.. I'm disappointed too.. but if the Oilers won 5 in a row this thread would be off the hook so give me a break.. I tried.

 

[Chabot84]

All this talk of going 9-1-2 or whatever, then we lose to a team the Condors probably would've beaten in New Jersey. This year will go down in Nicholson/Lowe lore as a "near miss" that "just needed a few tweaks" when it was a downright pathetic year. This was one of the slowest races for the 8th seed in recent memory and we hovered around a 5% chance of making it, not even staying within a realistic shot with 10+ games left. Our expectations have gotten so terribly low. The goal was to compete for the cup, not fizzle out for the final seed. Dark times in Edmonton, going to be one hell of a clean up job for the next GM.

9-1-2 would be like 10-1-1 … we can only hope. As there would still be a chance with a record like that.

 

[Messrules11]

It’s over, any points now just assures we get a worse draft pick.

 

[Chabot84]

It’s over, any points now just assures we get a worse draft pick.

Look clearly.. if you look at the first post of this thread it is not over. Are you most likely right and that it is over.. yes.. but maybe today is when Mcdavid takes charge and runs this team into the playoffs is that really so hard to believe? I've been a SENS fan and watched a few crazy runs and we never even had a player like Mcdavid. I'm not saying its going to happen but for this team on his back to win the next 10 games isn't as crazy as it sounds. Unfortunately the visual of what we have seen.. has not been pretty so its highly doubtful that today is the day this is going to happen. Also the facial expressions I see on MCD face during games doesn't give me much hope.. he doesn't look very happy. That's a concern in itself.

 

[Messrules11]

Look clearly.. if you look at the first post of this thread it is not over. Are you most likely right and that it is over.. yes.. but maybe today is when Mcdavid takes charge and runs this team into the playoffs is that really so hard to believe? I've been a SENS fan and watched a few crazy runs and we never even had a player like Mcdavid. I'm not saying its going to happen but for this team on his back to win the next 10 games isn't as crazy as it sounds. Unfortunately the visual of what we have seen.. has not been pretty so its highly doubtful that today is the day this is going to happen. Also the facial expressions I see on MCD face during games doesn't give me much hope.. he doesn't look very happy. That's a concern in itself.

No man, it’s over.

 

[Chabot84]

No man, it’s over.

Yeah for sure its easy for anyone to come here and claim its over could have one that 10 games ago or even in December as some poster have claimed.. you will most likely be crowned correct.

 

[McShogun99]

So if we go 10-0 and Arizona goes 6-4....

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Good on you for taking the time to make this thread. Too bad that our team is too busy crapping the bed to make this thread more interesting.

 

[Drivesaitl]

@Drivesaitl Do you want me to change the title of the thread too everytime I update it? Cmon now... this isn't very hard to understand

I really thought I made this idiot proof.. and I know you are smarter then that and just being a dick. I know things suck.. I'm disappointed too.. but if the Oilers won 5 in a row this thread would be off the hook so give me a break.. I tried.

I wasn't talking about the thread title. I was talking about the 11-1 option still cited in your post that I replied to. I'm honestly not understanding this, and I rarely get into the math of this kind of thing. To me there are 10 games left, and so how could the team go 11-1 the rest of the way? Am I not making sense?

 

[Chabot84]

@Drivesaitl

This thread is tracking the last 12 games of the season for Edmonton. So at the top of the thread I'm updating all applicable teams records daily as we go down to the finish line here. Below that, are different records that Edmonton "could hit" for their final 12 games played. Below those records are the maximum records in points the other teams can attain and still allow us to make the playoffs. Their records actually put them 1 point behind Edmonton in the standings.

So the reason you can still see the 11-1-0 record up there even though there is only 10 games left is because right now at the top of the thread our record is only 1-1-0 (for the final 12 games so far) and so for tracking purposes we can still achieve a record of 11-1-0 as its still a possibility.

I hope this helps.

Basically using this thread you don't even need the NHL standings anymore, you can pinpoint exactly when Edmonton is "reasonably" out of the playoffs. Its like we created a new NHL season in this thread with 12 games total and there is only 7 teams in the league. (The only teams that matter to us)

So we can update this thread until the Oilers going 9-2-1 possibility is officially eliminated either by Oilers losing more then 0-2-1 or by 2 of the 5 teams (only including wild card and below) exceeding their maximum records as noted below the Oilers record possibility of 9-2-1 in the top post of this thread.

If the Oilers go 8-1-3 or 9-2-1 to finish the season;

We would need the teams ahead of us to have the following records at maximum for points:

St.louis 4-8-0
Dallas 5-7-1
Arizona 6-5-1
Minnesota 7-5-0
Colorado 8-4-0
Chicago 8-4-1

Updated: Arizona loses in regulation, Chicago loses in OT

 

[Messrules11]

Destroy this thread

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

@Drivesaitl Do you want me to change the title of the thread too everytime I update it? Cmon now... this isn't very hard to understand

I really thought I made this idiot proof.. and I know you are smarter then that and just being a dick. I know things suck.. I'm disappointed too.. but if the Oilers won 5 in a row this thread would be off the hook so give me a break.. I tried.

Can’t blame you for trying.

 

[Chabot84]

Destroy this thread

I never would have thought Vancouver would have passed us.. but they did. (I didn't even include them in the top post in the thread because I figured if they passed us we had zero chance at playoffs anyways)

Maybe I can turn this into a draft lotto thread and we can track it backwards lol

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

I never would have thought Vancouver would have passed us.. but they did. (I didn't even include them in the top post in the thread because I figured if they passed us we had zero chance at playoffs anyways)

Maybe I can turn this into a draft lotto thread and we can track it backwards lol

If the Oilers go 0-9-0 how low can they theoretically finish?

 

[Chabot84]

If the Oilers go 0-9-0 how low can they theoretically finish?

If all teams continue and re-produce their last 10 paces.. and we went 0-9-0 we would end up in 5th last place.

 

[Chabot84]

Destroy this thread

THREAD UPDATED TO ALSO TRACK THE DRAFT LOTTO!

See first post.

 

[Yablo21]

THREAD UPDATED TO ALSO TRACK THE DRAFT LOTTO!

See first post.

Appreciate the effort man, sorry everyone is so sour, I thought they could maybe go on a run but they pretty much gave up after the Devils loss.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

We've just been unlucky that last couple games. We're so close to being a playoff team.

All we need are 6 new forwards who can actually play NHL hockey, 3 defensemen who can distinguish between different colored jerseys & a couple goalies that aren't allergic to vulcanized rubber.

 

[gordonhught]

We've just been unlucky that last couple games. We're so close to being a playoff team.

All we need are 6 new forwards who can actually play NHL hockey, 3 defensemen who can distinguish between different colored jerseys & a couple goalies that aren't allergic to vulcanized rubber.

This is baloney.

Unless tongue in cheek.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

the Oilers need to grind out a few key losses down the stretch, which knowing them shouldn't be hard

-continue to overplay the only 3 good forwards we have
-tire out Koskinen so Stolarz has to tend the et
-make sure Rieder plays a regular shift to do nothing out there
-Lucic being Lucic

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

THREAD UPDATED TO ALSO TRACK THE DRAFT LOTTO!

See first post.

Nice!