Dallas and Arizona with the easiest schedules now. Dallas only 3 playoff teams and Az I think is 4 remaining.
We should be officially dead middle of the week after next or shortly thereafter. Our tragic number is 16.
Draft Lotto Tracking Final 9 Games
- Thread starter Chabot84
- Start date
Dallas and Arizona with the easiest schedules now. Dallas only 3 playoff teams and Az I think is 4 remaining.
We should be officially dead middle of the week after next or shortly thereafter. Our tragic number is 16.
@5 Mins 4 Ftg
St. Louis plays:
Oilers
Vegas
Tampa
Colorado
Chicago
Before the season ends... with a little luck they would be on the table for us. Anything can happen... we just have to keep winning.
And keep in mind they just dropped a game to Ottawa lol
St. Louis plays:
Oilers
Vegas
Tampa
Colorado
Chicago
Before the season ends... with a little luck they would be on the table for us. Anything can happen... we just have to keep winning.
And keep in mind they just dropped a game to Ottawa lol
We need to run the table vs StL and Vegas to have absolutely any hope. Here’s to hope!
Arizona plays:
Tampa
Chicago (must win game for them against Arizona)
Colorado (must win game for them against Arizona)
Minny (must win game for them against Arizona)
Vegas
Winnipeg
Before the season ends. Lets run the table on St. Louis and Vegas like you say... and then things will start looking better as our schedule eases up for a couple games.
Oh we need beat Columbus as well.
While I agree with you...
All I See there is a 50/50 coin flip on Arizona haha.. so one of the teams below them will get in 50% of the time.
Not over yet
Dallas plays:
Colorado (must win for them)
Pittsburg
Winnipeg
Oilers (must win for them)
Calgary
Chicago (must win for them)
Minny (must win for them)
That's not an easy schedule.... Dallas at 88% to make playoffs is cute but I think both WC spots could be up for grabs.(with a little luck)
Chicago is surging.. if they keep this up they will take a spot for sure. <-- They are the ones I'm worried about if we keep winning.
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All the must win games you state for Dal and Az are must win for tbe opponents they face as well and more so as those other teams are below them in the standings. Bettman points benfit both Az and Dallas and StL.
Tougher teams are the playoff teams by definition as they have the best records.
So no matter how You slice it Dallas and Arizona have the easiest schedules and the Oilers are nearly mathematically eliminated.
One thing I noticed was that the guy has Arizona at 50% chance and Dallas at 88% yet Dallas only has 1 more point them then so... is one point really worth 30%??? (yes Dallas has game in hand)
I'm not saying the guy isn't accurate but I think there is a good chance BOTH Dallas and Arizona don't make the playoffs. For one of them to drop with the way teams are playing below them... good chance.
JMO.
There's no way they finish that low IMO, McDrai will ensure that.
They will likely separate from the Rangers, Canucks and especially Sabres who are in major tank mode and will probably jump Colorado and finish just behind Chicago and Florida. Probably 20th or 21st with minimal managerial change (probably fire Duane Sutter and claim they made change) and get the 11th or 12th draft pick. NHL purgatory
Stoneman89
Registered User
- Feb 8, 2008
- 27,423
- 21,831
What this guy does is run computer simulations 50,000 times per team per day. What you see is the mean average. His model is very accurate. Last year he nailed the Oilers when everyone was saying Cup finals or WC finals. This year he has us pretty darn close. It’s a good model.
We’re 23rd. now 4 points removed from 27th. We could finish 27 or we could be 20th. Doubt we make the playoffs.
For the Oilers to make the playoffs we will have to break everyone's playoff prediction models and most likely go 10-1-1 to finish out the season..
Much better chance of finishing 20th, the teams below them are starting their death march and don't have McDrai to squeeze out enough wins.
I gave up on playoffs a long time ago. I remember the exact game when I knew they didn't have what it took and that was the loss to St. Louis at home right before Christmas when St.Louis was down in the dumps and without Pietrangelo. They then went on to get swept in that homestand and showed us who they really are.
Kyle McMahon
Registered User
- May 10, 2006
- 13,301
- 4,353
Dallas and Arizona both missing would likely require one of Chicago/Colorado/Edmonton running the table, or close to it. The Stars going Bettman-.500 would put them at 90 points, an almost unattainable total for the current non-playoff teams. Five home games against teams below them in the standings as well, so merely performing as expected would almost certainly get them into the playoffs. Plus they have way more regulation/OT wins than the teams below them, therefore holding tiebreakers against everyone. 88% seems accurate for Dallas; they'd need something like a 3-7-1 finish to miss the playoffs at this point, which is unrealistic with their schedule.
Very accurate once the team's projected strenght and the opposition's projected strenghts are determined. This is a very unpredictable sport and very accurate is always a relative, but honestly I have never seen anything in terms of predictions/odds from any blogger, statistician, sports odds site that couldn't have been figured out by most any random guy with a high interest in hockey and statistics.
The breaking point is almost always the projected strenghts of the teams, at least that is how I perceive it. After that, given that you are right about the projected strenghts for 31 teams, you are obviously in a very good place if you can run your model for all possible scenarios going forward. Problem is that the first half of your model is way more important than the second part.
Imo the nail in the coffin of hope was the the NJD game, it was of course difficult even before, but now playoffs is a fools hope at best. We're not going like 4 W 1 L vs VGK*2, STL, SJS and CGY. Five very tough games left. Still I am hoping for a positive record down the stretch.
Louis Cypher
Boys are back in town
- Jun 11, 2007
- 3,754
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Dallas just dropped a point to Vancouver. (lost in OT)
This serves well for us.Of course this all goes MUTE pretty quick if we don't beat Vegas tonight (no small feat)
Yeah I was a life long Sens fan but I live in Edmonton... the Sens have broken me. I'm done with them.. I've been wanting to cheer for the Oilers for over 10 years now since I moved here but you know the history.. its been hard to ever make the switch. Trying hard now.. seeing a nice strong push for the playoffs here even though we are a super long shot would go a long way for me!
Gunnersaurus Rex
Registered User
- Jan 14, 2008
- 3,261
- 2,197
The eye test says we have no chance but the Math says we can still make it. Added the new possibility of going 11-1-0 to the thread and updated last nights games.
Before I even broke it down to this length of visual.. I was saying we are most likely going to lose a game in this road stretch.. I was secretly hoping we wouldn't. If we can get through St. Louis and Columbus.. then we will have a much "easier" stretch of games against Ottawa, Kings, Dallas and then Anaheim.
Hitch can keep on saying we only need to win 2 of the next 3.. but it was really 3 of the next 4.. then we have one more loss budgeted for the final stretch of games against Vegas, Colorado, San Jose and Calgary. So we better come into those games firing on all cylinders to even stand a chance.. Need to run the table from HERE to THERE.
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