Draft Lotto Tracking Final 9 Games

[Chabot84]

Vancouver loses. Chicago loses.
Arizona wins. Edmonton wins.

Updated.

Colorado plays Vegas tonight
Dallas plays Calgary

 

[Chabot84]

If col/ arz go .500 and we win out, we are in. So, not great but still not impossible amazingly.

Yeah looking at Dallas our chances of catching them are pretty much DONE:

They play:

Calgary L
Edmonton L
Vancouver W
Philly W
Chicago L
Minny L

A situation like that and they would only finish the season with 88 points.. which is the max points Edmonton can get if they win out and they have us beat on the tie breaker (ROW) Can't ask them to have a worse record then the above really lol.. ​

 

[Kyle McMahon]

It's imperative that Colorado lose to Vegas in regulation tonight. We're going to want them to beat Arizona on Friday, so we can't have them picking up any points elsewhere.

Arizona's win last night probably killed any realistic chance that we could make it in with 86 points. I would say getting in with 87 points (5-0-1) is still on the table though, presuming the OTL was not against Colorado. 88 points still means we would likely make it, though Arizona's win probably dropped our chances from 90% to 75% in a run-the-table scenario.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

SportsClubStats has the Oilers chances at 57.1% if they win out, 21.6% if they go 5-0-1, and 9.1% if they go 5-1-0. Vegas plays Colorado, Minnesota, Edmonton and Arizona in their last six games. They'll play a strong role in determining who gets in as will Winnipeg who plays Chicago, Minnesota, Colorado and Arizona on a four game road trip to close out the year.

Edit: Actually San Jose plays Chicago, Edmonton and Colorado so they're a significant factor too.

 

[Yablo21]

I posted this in the OOT thread, this is why winning all 6 puts us at 58%
Oilers have made up ground on ROW so other teams need 4 wins or 89pts to knock us out now, except Dallas

OILERS	If Oilers win next 6 gms --> 88 pts and 37 ROW
Dallas	Dallas needs 2 wins to be out of reach
Colorado	81pts 33ROW - need 4-2-0 or 3-1-2 to be out of reach
Arizona	81pts 33ROW - needs 4-1-0 to be out of reach
Minnesota	79pts 34ROW - needs 4-0-1
Chicago	Chicago needs 6-0-0 in reg or OT

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Fourier]

I posted this in the OOT thread, this is why winning all 6 puts us at 58%
Oilers have made up ground on ROW so other teams need 4 wins or 89pts to knock us out now, except Dallas

OILERS	If Oilers win next 6 gms --> 88 pts and 37 ROW
Dallas	Dallas needs 2 wins to be out of reach
Colorado	81pts 33ROW - need 4-2-0 or 3-1-2 to be out of reach
Arizona	81pts 33ROW - needs 4-1-0 to be out of reach
Minnesota	79pts 34ROW - needs 4-0-1
Chicago	Chicago needs 6-0-0 in reg or OT

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It's a little better than it looks if the Oilers win out and beat Colorado in regulation. In that case Colorado would have to go 4-1 in their other 5 games. Of course the part about "winning out" is the small detail that gets in the way.

 

[Yablo21]

It's a little better than it looks if the Oilers win out and beat Colorado in regulation. In that case Colorado would have to go 4-1 in their other 5 games. Of course the part about "winning out" is the small detail that gets in the way.

Exactly, I am doing this all more in jest then any real belief. They haven't been able to win key games at any point this season so far. So no reason to think 6-0 is possible. But the point is now they have again put themselves back into the driver's seat.

 

[morningla]

time to match our season high winning record, and pray these other team decide to give up.
It'll be so fun if the last game vs the flames in April is an important one.

And will probably blow it playing a team who is resting their players for the playoffs.

it'll still be one of the most exciting moment in the last decade.

And No... don't stress and don't believe... until it's still happening in April

 

[Fourier]

Exactly, I am doing this all more in jest then any real belief. They haven't been able to win key games at any point this season so far. So no reason to think 6-0 is possible. But the point is now they have again put themselves back into the driver's seat.

At least it's late March and the team is still playing real games. Their chances are obviously remote but for the players there is still a slier of hope.

Nicholson can blame it all on Toby. But I do wonder if Sekera had not been hurt would things have been different. Even with the Klefbom injury one more healthy defenseman could have made difference. Maybe they win two of the three consecutive games they blew the two goal lead on. Things would look much better right now with even 3 more points.

This team is fixable. But I am not convinced they have the people in place to do that.

 

[CupofOil]

At least it's late March and the team is still playing real games. Their chances are obviously remote but for the players there is still a slier of hope.

Nicholson can blame it all on Toby. But I do wonder if Sekera had not been hurt would things have been different. Even with the Klefbom injury one more healthy defenseman could have made difference. Maybe they win two of the three consecutive games they blew the two goal lead on. Things would look much better right now with even 3 more points.

This team is fixable. But I am not convinced they have the people in place to do that.

This is my worst fear, that Nicholson and co. think this as well and keep everything pretty much as is assuming that a healthy Sekera is the key to them being a contender.

The reality is that this isn't a normal playoff race. If this was a normal year wild card race (like what we're seeing in the east), the Oilers would be a good 12-13 points out and not having played meaningful games for weeks so it's a little deceiving saying that they are playing meaningful games right now.

I just hope that this little winning stretch doesn't give management a false sense of security that this team is closer to contending than it really is.
I do agree with your last sentence, sadly.

 

[Fourier]

This is my worst fear, that Nicholson and co. think this as well and keep everything pretty much as is assuming that a healthy Sekera is the key to them being a contender.

The reality is that this isn't a normal playoff race. If this was a normal year wild card race (like what we're seeing in the east), the Oilers would be a good 12-13 points out and not having played meaningful games for weeks so it's a little deceiving saying that they are playing meaningful games right now.

I just hope that this little winning stretch doesn't give management a false sense of security that this team is closer to contending than it really is.
I do agree with your last sentence, sadly.

I agree with most of what you say but I do think that the reason it is not a normal race is because there is a lot of parity in the West. But that said I think there is equal danger in making radical changes as there is in standing pat. What they need next year is to find the right management and make at least a couple of smart moves without doing anything stupid.

 

[Aerrol]

Holy moly the west is bad this year. Just crazy that we somehow still have a super remote chance at playoffs.

 

[Chabot84]

Holy moly the west is bad this year. Just crazy that we somehow still have a super remote chance at playoffs.

Yeah if we can beat Dallas and Anaheim... those last 4 games against Vegas + Calgary + San Jose + Colorado could be exciting ones.

One game at a time here. Definitely not an easy staircase to climb.

 

[CupofOil]

I agree with most of what you say but I do think that the reason it is not a normal race is because there is a lot of parity in the West. But that said I think there is equal danger in making radical changes as there is in standing pat. What they need next year is to find the right management and make at least a couple of smart moves without doing anything stupid.

For sure. There needs to be a balance between doing very little (the Tambo method) and being too radical (the Chia method, the Chia of the first 2 offseasons). It's a tough spot for the new GM, a damned if you do damned if you don't situation with not many resources to tap into.

 

[Aerrol]

Yeah if we can beat Dallas and Anaheim... those last 4 games against Vegas + Calgary + San Jose + Colorado could be exciting ones.

One game at a time here. Definitely not an easy staircase to climb.

 

[BudBundy]

1). It’s a trap. Never evaluate a team based on how it does in “garbage time.” Opponents play you differently when you are in contention and your own team plays different with something on the line. This team has consistently folded this year when it mattered.

2). The West wildcard has been a weak turtle race, far more so than we are likely to see it again. It consistently takes roughly 96 points to get into the playoffs. That needs to be the benchmark, not this freak of a season.

 

[nafrelio]

I think there is parity in the West, but that only partly explains the poor race for the playoffs. We've watched our team play really good for decent stretches, followed by stretches of dreadful play. Other teams in the West are the same - both good and poor stretches of the season. When healthy, I believe we are a better team than we give ourselves credit for. Our biggest holes are on the wings, and Puljujarvi and Yamamoto don't appear to be what we desperately need there. We have glaring weekness there and don't deserve to make the playoffs with how inconsistent we've played.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

An unfortunate blow last night with Colorado winning a game they weren't supposed to. I still think it's in our best interest if they beat Arizona on Friday, but after that they need to go on a skid. Fortunately we hold the ability to deal them a loss, but we're going to need help from others. Hopefully San Jose and Winnipeg are still fighting for position and play their full lineups against them in the last two games.

 

[Chabot84]

An unfortunate blow last night with Colorado winning a game they weren't supposed to. I still think it's in our best interest if they beat Arizona on Friday, but after that they need to go on a skid. Fortunately we hold the ability to deal them a loss, but we're going to need help from others. Hopefully San Jose and Winnipeg are still fighting for position and play their full lineups against them in the last two games.

No help last night that's for sure. Colorado wins. Dallas wins.

They don't need to beat Arizona.. We can afford for Arizona to beat Colorado.. would be much better for us I think. If Colorado scores a better record then below all playoff hopes are out the window even with winning every game to close out the season.

PLAYOFF TRACKING FINAL 12 GAMES:



CURRENT RECORDS: (teams we should care about highlighted red)

Edmonton 3-2-1
Vancouver 0-2-0 (added with only 8 games left for them)
St. Louis 5-0-1 (Can't catch them)

Dallas 4-3-1
Arizona 2-3-2

Minnesota 2-4-1

Colorado 5-1-1 <-- Needs to slow down

Chicago 2-3-1



If the Oilers go 8-1-3 or 9-2-1 to finish the season;

We would need the teams ahead of us to have the following records at maximum for points:

Vancouver 6-1-1 (added with only 8 games left)
St.louis 4-8-0
Dallas 5-8-0
Arizona 6-5-1
Minnesota 7-5-0
Colorado 8-4-0
Chicago 8-4-1​

 

[Kyle McMahon]

No help last night that's for sure. Colorado wins. Dallas wins.

They don't need to beat Arizona.. We can afford for Arizona to beat Colorado.. would be much better for us I think. If Colorado scores a better record then below all playoff hopes are out the window even with winning every game to close out the season.

PLAYOFF TRACKING FINAL 12 GAMES:



CURRENT RECORDS: (teams we should care about highlighted red)

Edmonton 3-2-1
Vancouver 0-2-0 (added with only 8 games left for them)
St. Louis 5-0-1 (Can't catch them)

Dallas 4-3-1
Arizona 2-3-2

Minnesota 2-4-1

Colorado 5-1-1 <-- Needs to slow down

Chicago 2-3-1



If the Oilers go 8-1-3 or 9-2-1 to finish the season;

We would need the teams ahead of us to have the following records at maximum for points:

Vancouver 6-1-1 (added with only 8 games left)
St.louis 4-8-0
Dallas 5-8-0
Arizona 6-5-1
Minnesota 7-5-0
Colorado 8-4-0
Chicago 8-4-1​

Disagree on wanting Arizona to beat Colorado, based on remaining schedules. Coyotes going 4-1-0 would eliminate us, and they have home games against the Kings and the fading Wild. I'm assuming they win those games. If they also beat the Avalanche, that would mean they only needed to split their two tough games (Sharks, Jets) to sink us.

Colorado has a road game in St. Louis and a game against us. If we assume they lose both, then they'd need to beat both Winnipeg and San Jose in their other two games to eliminate us, even if they beat Arizona.

It's all projection of course, but I think there's a better chance of Arizona going 3-1 against their non-Avs opponents than the Avs going 2-2 against theirs (since they are automatically getting one loss in those four games, against us, for the scenario to work at all).

 

[Chabot84]

Disagree on wanting Arizona to beat Colorado, based on remaining schedules. Coyotes going 4-1-0 would eliminate us, and they have home games against the Kings and the fading Wild. I'm assuming they win those games. If they also beat the Avalanche, that would mean they only needed to split their two tough games (Sharks, Jets) to sink us.

Colorado has a road game in St. Louis and a game against us. If we assume they lose both, then they'd need to beat both Winnipeg and San Jose in their other two games to eliminate us, even if they beat Arizona.

It's all projection of course, but I think there's a better chance of Arizona going 3-1 against their non-Avs opponents than the Avs going 2-2 against theirs (since they are automatically getting one loss in those four games, against us, for the scenario to work at all).

I see you put some thought into this.. very nice breakdown. I now agree with you! Numbers and stats are one thing but I like to add emotion and logic to the mix and you did just that

 

[ElysiumAB]

I wonder how many times it's made sense to have both a playoff race and top lottery pick thread regarding the same team, with like 7 games left.

Probably not many.

 

[Chabot84]

Added new possibility just for fun but basically Colorado with 2 more wins on the season eliminates us. Winning all games leaves us most likely short of playoffs after Edmonton drops a crucial point to Dallas last night. Updated.

PLAYOFF TRACKING FINAL 12 GAMES:



CURRENT RECORDS: (teams we should care about highlighted red)

Edmonton 3-2-2

Vancouver 3-1-0 (added with only 8 games left for them)
St. Louis 5-0-1 (Can't catch them)

Dallas 4-3-1
Arizona 2-3-2

Minnesota 2-4-1

Colorado 5-1-1

Chicago 3-3-1


If the Oilers go 8-2-2 to finish the season;

Vancouver 7-1-0
Arizona 6-6-0
Minnesota 6-5-1
Colorado 6-5-1
Chicago 8-5-0

Colorado plays: Arizona, St. Louis, Edmonton, Winnipeg and San Jose. (Can only win 1 game)​

 

[MikeGrier99]

It's sad that if we even remotely had our shit together this season we could've easily made it. We won't get this same turtle race next season.

 

[McDrai]

It's sad that if we even remotely had our **** together this season we could've easily made it. We won't get this same turtle race next season.

Vancouver and Arizona Will likely have a lot more points and I don't see many of the current playoff teams slowing down...it's going to be a tough season for us next year imo
Of course our success will depend on things such as
a) can Sekera and Klefbom stay healthy for a full season?
b) can we bring in some good depth forwards either via trade, free agency, or internally?
c) is there a coach who understands the new NHL and who the players will respect and buy into their systems that they are trying to implement?