HF Habs: Draft Combine 2022 - May 30 to June 4

[NotProkofievian]

I will point out, though, that Drouin and Yakupov were dYnAmIc

 

[SOLR]

Such is life xD

The leaf's scouting system pushed back on Yakupov and would have taken Rielly first. ie. At least one team had the right set of measurement tools to predict performance in this case.

ie. not a lottery.

Again not saying Wright isn't the guy, saying that if he's not the guy, we should be good enough to not select him.

The fact that I don't see a high ceiling in Wright is shared by quite a few pro scouts, and has been covered in the media at length - so maybe we could stop stating opinions as facts. Because I certainly think that anyone saying that Wright has the highest ceiling has food poisoning or something like that lol. But who knows.

 

[SOLR]

I will point out, though, that Drouin and Yakupov were dYnAmIc

Drouin was pretty hard to evaluate because of McKinnon vice versa (inflated Drouin).
Yakupov and Galchenyuk, again, some juxtaposition (inflated both).

I agree that Wright is probably under-evaluated because of who played with.

 

[NotProkofievian]

The leaf's scouting system pushed back on Yakupov and would have taken Rielly first. ie. At least one team had the right set of measurement tools to predict performance in this case.

ie. not a lottery.

Again not saying Wright isn't the guy, saying that if he's not the guy, we should be good enough to not select him.

The fact that I don't see a high ceiling in Wright is shared by quite a few pro scouts, and has been covered in the media at length - so maybe we could stop stating opinions as facts. Because I certainly think that anyone saying that Wright has the highest ceiling has food poisoning or something like that lol. But who knows.

I actually see this sentiment in the exact opposite terms. I think people are going to swing and miss on Wright hard. I haven't seen people sour on a golden boy with a resume like Wright's since 2013, and even then it wasn't this extreme. Someone called him ''Danault+'' ffs.

Wright is undervalued at this point by us prospect watchers.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

You can frame it as you wish.

You compared this (Wright's ceiling?!!)

2004-05

Rimouski Oceanic

QMJHL

62

66

102

168

84

78

13

14

17

31

16

To that:

2021-22

Kingston Frontenacs

OHL

63

32

62

94

22

23

11

3

11

14

0

And you expect people to believe you when you claim it's a case of an overanalysis of a player?

Evidence: I've been watching Wright for 2(3) years, and I've never seen him take over one important game. I've seen Chromiak do it (while he was playing with Wright)...that's the evidence. Future first-liners take over important games. Instead of insulting the intelligence of others as a consistent habit, maybe you would be taken more seriously if you dug a little deeper.

I specifically did not talk about Slafkovski finding another gear, I talked about Nemec or Cooley (because they have shown some hints of that). I don't think Slaf has so much room for another gear (like Wright).

I have seen alot more of Wright than you have and I respectfully am in 100% disagreement with you.....Prior to this season he very much alligned with Crosby and I have quite clearly laid out potential explanations for his production being lower than most had hoped.

Comparing scoring between generations and different leagues is also a huge mistake.

I listed what I perceive to be a Suzuki (+) floor and a Crosby (-) ceiling, which is entirely fair given his last 3 years. If you only want to cherry pick the data that conforms to your ridiculously low projection then you are not part of a reasonable discussion. Given the ceiling and floor that I provided there is a large variance of potential outcomes that I believe he will eventually settle into. Unlike your projection I have left room for multiple development outcomes with somewhere between Crosby light and Suzuki 2.0.......if you want to solely fixate on the improbability of reaching his absolute ceiling that I have proposed then it would appear as though your underlying motive is more contrarian based than critical analysis. I think it is more likely that he is closer to the floor that proposed than the ceiling. To say that you would absolutely rule out ant possibility of him scoring over 100 points as a true center is either purposely argumentative or you just haven't paid close attention to other players who achieved such heights despite not being expected to in their draft year. To be clear once again, because I smell a strawman heading my way, I never said that he might become Crosby but that his ceiling is a hair below Crosby which would be a center who can put up 100+ points and play his position honestly.

As for you claiming that you never said that Slafkovski might have another gear ....."while one of Nemec, Jiricek, Slaf, Cooley, find another gear under pressure"

If you are going to be contrarian at least put in an honest effort to hide it lol

 

[Adam Michaels]

His game will mature in the next year + when he'll get to the NHL.

Babysitting rookies lol come one it's guys his own age. Wright should make them better, he's supposed to be the best player. He started producing at a higher pace when he started playing with two older players.

The rookies played and performed better when they were on a line with Wright.

Sure, Wright's production went up when he played with older players. But the younger players were playing better when they were with Shane.

 

[SOLR]

I have seen alot more of Wright than you have and I respectfully am in 100% disagreement with you.....Prior to this season he very much alligned with Crosby and I have quite clearly laid out potential explanations for his production being lower than most had hoped.

Comparing scoring between generations and different leagues is also a huge mistake.

I listed what I perceive to be a Suzuki (+) floor and a Crosby (-) ceiling, which is entirely fair given his last 3 years. If you only want to cherry pick the data that conforms to your ridiculously low projection then you are not part of a reasonable discussion. Given the ceiling and floor that I provided there is a large variance of potential outcomes that I believe he will eventually settle into. Unlike your projection I have left room for multiple development outcomes with somewhere between Crosby light and Suzuki 2.0.......if you want to solely fixate on the improbability of reaching his absolute ceiling that I have proposed then it would appear as though your underlying motive is more contrarian based than critical analysis. I think it is more likely that he is closer to the floor that proposed than the ceiling. To say that you would absolutely rule out ant possibility of him scoring over 100 points as a true center is either purposely argumentative or you just haven't paid close attention to other players who achieved such heights despite not being expected to in their draft year. To be clear once again, because I smell a strawman heading my way, I never said that he might become Crosby but that his ceiling is a hair below Crosby which would be a center who can put up 100+ points and play his position honestly.

As for you claiming that you never said that Slafkovski might have another gear ....."while one of Nemec, Jiricek, Slaf, Cooley, find another gear under pressure"

If you are going to be contrarian at least put in an honest effort to hide it lol

More than 60 games of Wright? (probably seen 80 games) - have you seen a meaningfully different sample size?

Crosby is not in another meaningfully different generation / cross league difference for a guy like Crosby are not very relevant.

I don't really care if you think Im relevant or not to the discussion - you keep trying to outkast folks as opposed to providing sound arguments.

Naming Crosby with Wright is nonsense, pure and simple.
Not the same type of player
Not the same size
Not the same skills
Not the same skill level
Not the same ambition

Name a better ceiling from a player that is comparable to Wright, Tavares. A ceiling of Tavares is a good ceiling. If you compare Tavares numbers to Wright, they are still better, but I can accept that Wright might be Tavares and get comparable points.

This is what I actually said:
This is the doubt that exists, that you are buying a good 2nd line center without the capability to win contests against top teams- while one of Nemec, Jiricek, Slaf, Cooley, find another gear under pressure. Given the record thus far, it's very likely that one of these players will find that and be better than Wright. It has become predictable. But it's hard to predict who, I think Nemec and Cooley are the most likely candidates

Next time before you make a sleazy point, read carefully.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

More than 60 games of Wright? (probably seen 80 games) - have you seen a meaningfully different sample size?

Crosby is not in another meaningfully different generation / cross league difference for a guy like Crosby are not very relevant.

I don't really care if you think Im relevant or not to the discussion - you keep trying to outkast folks as opposed to providing sound arguments.

Naming Crosby with Wright is nonsense, pure and simple.
Not the same type of player
Not the same size
Not the same skills
Not the same skill level
Not the same ambition

Name a better ceiling from a player that is comparable to Wright, Tavares. A ceiling of Tavares is a good ceiling. If you compare Tavares numbers to Wright, they are still better, but I can accept that Wright might be Tavares and get comparable points.

This is what I actually said:
This is the doubt that exists, that you are buying a good 2nd line center without the capability to win contests against top teams- while one of Nemec, Jiricek, Slaf, Cooley, find another gear under pressure. Given the record thus far, it's very likely that one of these players will find that and be better than Wright. It has become predictable. But it's hard to predict who, I think Nemec and Cooley are the most likely candidates

Next time before you make a sleazy point, read carefully.

You still listed Slafkovsky as possibly having another gear....my reading is fine. And Wright is a far superior skater to Tavares which is why I prefer Crosby light over a Tavares comparison. Are you able to distinguish the difference between a lesser version of Crosby and actually becoming Crosby as it is becoming apparent that you either don't want to acknowledge that as the comparison that I made or reading comprehension is not an area of strength for you. Obviously it is more likely that he ends up with Tavares' production than Crosby's but that is not his ceiling, nor was it Tavares' ceiling. Making linear correlations from junior stats to NHL projections is a fool's errand and Wright has superior tools to Tavares but falls a little short of Crosby.....hence the Crosby-lite ceiling. Wright has elite IQ and has an elite shot to go with very good to potentially great skating in all areas and plays a strong two way game. He is already strong and will end up being very tough to knock off of the puck when he is closer to 210lbs in a few years. I never made an exact comparison to Crosby-lite so don't bother muddying the waters with the minutia of his game relative to Wright's as comparisons are generally dumb, which is why I chose to create a vague projection on the borders of his projection range.

And once again with absolutes about Wright not being a winner just 1 year after dominating the U18's and carrying Canada to a Championship.

Just stop with your nonsense or dm Goldenhands with this biased drivel.

This is becoming sad and not worth any more of my time.

 

[BLONG7]

I think it will de Wright and think it should be Wright but I am still intrigued as to why Slaf got that 2nd call.

Curious as to why Slaf did not participate in the Combine testing?

 

[morhilane]

Curious as to why Slaf did not participate in the Combine testing?

None of the kids who went to the Worlds did and I think he go there one day after it started too.

 

[BLONG7]

None of the kids who went to the Worlds did and I think he go there one day after it started too.

OK............still very interesting.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

The leaf's scouting system pushed back on Yakupov and would have taken Rielly first. ie. At least one team had the right set of measurement tools to predict performance in this case.

ie. not a lottery.

Again not saying Wright isn't the guy, saying that if he's not the guy, we should be good enough to not select him.

The fact that I don't see a high ceiling in Wright is shared by quite a few pro scouts, and has been covered in the media at length - so maybe we could stop stating opinions as facts. Because I certainly think that anyone saying that Wright has the highest ceiling has food poisoning or something like that lol. But who knows.

That is just Burke being the blowhard attention seeker that he has always been. The only reason that he may not have taken Yakupov was because he is a western dinosaur and didn't want the Russian. I know he took both Sedin's but that was as much about stealing the show for himself as it was about anything else. The guy is a clown and I am glad he has been ushered to the sidelines.

I personally believe that he would have taken Ryan Murray 1st.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

None of the kids who went to the Worlds did and I think he go there one day after it started too.

Recently eliminated players from CHL teams were also at a disadvantage with little time for recovery and possibly no time to train.

 

[dcyhabs]

What’s the point of interviews then? And what snap judgement have I made? I said I would still likely pick him. It’s just that doubt has now creeped in based on his interviews for me.

And what’s hilarious is you bringing up McDavid. McDavids play on the ice did all the talking. He could have not said a single word leading up to the draft and he still would have went #1.

Wrights play is so far from that level, I don’t know why you would even bring up McDavid.

Media interviews vs team interviews. In a team interview the team tries to get real information and the prospects try to sell themselves.

In a media interview the media tries to get anything that they can blow up into a big deal they can yell about for days. Prospects try to avoid controversy often by being boring. Our previous GM got rid of players who said anything more than “rah team, great coach, great management” like Subban or Danault.

Media interviews with players are pretty pointless. At best you have stuff like Danault eating pizza, most of the time you have intentionally boring fluff. More boring with experience.

If the NHL wanted better ratings they’d encourage personality but it’s really ingrained in the culture. Dougie Hamilton gets flamed as a teammate because he goes to museums and other cultural locales when he’s on the road instead of going to bars with the team every night. There is pressure to be dumb and boring.

 

[dcyhabs]

The leaf's scouting system pushed back on Yakupov and would have taken Rielly first. ie. At least one team had the right set of measurement tools to predict performance in this case.

ie. not a lottery.

Again not saying Wright isn't the guy, saying that if he's not the guy, we should be good enough to not select him.

The fact that I don't see a high ceiling in Wright is shared by quite a few pro scouts, and has been covered in the media at length - so maybe we could stop stating opinions as facts. Because I certainly think that anyone saying that Wright has the highest ceiling has food poisoning or something like that lol. But who knows.

And pretty much all scouts will use hindsight to sell themselves. Rielly is great, but he’s been front and center for a bunch of embarrassing playoff collapses while the rest of the team changed around him. 2012 was a bad draft year and all the top players should have spent time in lower leagues.

A bunch of top picks are neck and neck now. It’s unlikely they will have similar development trajectories. How much of that is predictable? It’s likely that someone out of the top 5-6 guys will break out, but can anyone reliably say who? Everyone saw Crosby and McDavid. Not everyone saw Makar.

 

[durojean]

His game will mature in the next year + when he'll get to the NHL.

Babysitting rookies lol come one it's guys his own age. Wright should make them better, he's supposed to be the best player. He started producing at a higher pace when he started playing with two older players.

Look at the production of those rookie : I remember Soto and he actually did 16 of his 24 pts before christmas playing with Wright. It had a real statistical tangible proof that Wright actually made a ton of difference for him.

 

[le_sean]

I didn't realize Soto went from PPG to almost 0 points after being shifted off Wright. That's encouraging if true! Making players around you better will serve him well in our market that's typically starved for pure talent.

14 points in his first 13 games. Wright was directly involved in 7 of those points. Then Soto had 12 points in his remaining 40 games.

 

[durojean]

No, you claimed I was saying something, I clarified that it was not the case, and then you refused to factor that into any of your subsequent responses. Like I said, you are arguing against a position you seem to have made up yourself. We are done here. Have a good evening fellow Habs fan. We can have different opinions, it’s ok dude.

I understand that your gut feeling is saying no.

I personally feel like we are searching reason to hate or to like him because it is a pretty important pick and we've been burned in our last 2 high pick so we are scared.

I feel Wright is the go to guy and my explanation for your point is that. He's had to deal with the medias for a long time and he can sense the approach of the medias changing around him so he's more defensive which has the effect of making look unsure and making us think he's less trustable. ( Again, thinking that is probably my own way to defend him because I like him very much and feel we should draft him )

I actually like the way he's taking criticism and the way he does not sees himself as a finished product. He looks like he's a lot more open to critism than the other 2 players. It may help him or it may submerge him in MTL.

I also saw glimpses in interview that he's not so sure the Habs will draft him anymore and maybe he has to deal with that deception while continuing the interview process. In that case, it is normal to look shaken. He's been told for 3 years he'd be the 1st overall of the NHL draft and may be in the process of losing that. It must no be easy for a 17 years old.

I want Wright, but I have a feeling Habs will go elsewere. I for one, am very scared of that because I like the prospect.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I understand that your gut feeling is saying no.

I personally feel like we are searching reason to hate or to like him because it is a pretty important pick and we've been burned in our last 2 high pick so we are scared.

I feel Wright is the go to guy and my explanation for your point is that. He's had to deal with the medias for a long time and he can sense the approach of the medias changing around him so he's more defensive which has the effect of making look unsure and making us think he's less trustable. ( Again, thinking that is probably my own way to defend him because I like him very much and feel we should draft him )

I actually like the way he's taking criticism and the way he does not sees himself as a finished product. He looks like he's a lot more open to critism than the other 2 players. It may help him or it may submerge him in MTL.

I also saw glimpses in interview that he's not so sure the Habs will draft him anymore and maybe he has to deal with that deception while continuing the interview process. In that case, it is normal to look shaken. He's been told for 3 years he'd be the 1st overall of the NHL draft and may be in the process of losing that. It must no be easy for a 17 years old.

I want Wright, but I have a feeling Habs will go elsewere. I for one, am very scared of that because I like the prospect.

I'm a Wright guy as well, but I don't really feel such anxiety about this pick. IMO, we don't really have a situation like 2018 where there are totally wildcard picks available. I want Wright because I believe he's the best prospect, but if they draft Slafkovsky or Cooley or even Nemec I won't belly ache about it.

 

[Chadstudsky]

Can you give a bit more context on this?

Sorry I had a more with more context but ever since the HF interface change my posts sometimes dont post and I lose everything I was typing. Got lazy rewriting it

He's a stand up guy and all, but never wanted to 'have fun', would never go out, his life is 100% hockey.

 

[dcyhabs]

14 points in his first 13 games. Wright was directly involved in 7 of those points. Then Soto had 12 points in his remaining 40 games.

Wright was probably double teamed on some of the points he wasn't directly involved in. That is exactly the type of player the habs need. They have a bunch of guys who are fine, and who can be really good if they have a play driver on their line occupying more than one guy and keeping everyone's attention. They don't need another average guy, or another 5 average guys, they need a few high end guys.

It's easy to go for the offensive guy who will put up points while being significantly outscored. Suzuki and Caufiled did that this year and we have to hope they'll do better with a real D, a good goalie, and a good shutdown line to take the hard minutes. There is real value to a center, like Bergeron, Damphousse, or Kopitar, who can put up good, but not necessarily always stellar, points while outscoring top opposition lines.

Danault was massively underrated because he took such overwhelming defensive responsibilities, especially in the playoffs, and came out of them well but without much chance for offense. His workload is a bit less extreme this year and his production is better. His departure made it really clear that Evans and Suzuki are not able to easily split his workload and still score.

Habs should spend some of the combine looking for a future shutdown center in the second or third round. Not someone playing that role now, like a JDR, someone who is putting up points in junior with defensive potential, more Carbonneau. If they take Wright and also get a shut down guy Suzuki and Caufield should be able to thrive as an exploitation line.

 

[RealityHurts]

I'm a Wright guy as well, but I don't really feel such anxiety about this pick. IMO, we don't really have a situation like 2018 where there are totally wildcard picks available. I want Wright because I believe he's the best prospect, but if they draft Slafkovsky or Cooley or even Nemec I won't belly ache about it.

There was a guy that developed a hockey statistical projection model (he recently went on a tsn radio/postcast) and he said that Slaskovsky is particularly risky based on his models. The model itself is based on production and adjusted to leagues and has data spanning about 20-30 years ish. He said that, based on his model, players comparable to Slafkovsky, as of now, have a 10/400 chance to become stars. One of those 10 being Rantanen in recent memory.

I felt the same way before (based off gut feeling watching him) so it was nice to see that this thought is further emphasized by a developed statistical model. To me, he's a bust.

I'd be ok with Nemec though

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Can't believe some ppl are so high on slaf after the KK debacle. I don't trust them big kids!

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Can't believe some ppl are so high on slaf after the KK debacle. I don't trust them big kids!

If there’s one quality that gets players over drafted it’s size.

 

[durojean]

I'm a Wright guy as well, but I don't really feel such anxiety about this pick. IMO, we don't really have a situation like 2018 where there are totally wildcard picks available. I want Wright because I believe he's the best prospect, but if they draft Slafkovsky or Cooley or even Nemec I won't belly ache about it.

For my part.

Slafkovsky scares me too much. There is too much similud to the KK pick, the Kaako pick and the Galchenyuk pick and I seem to find not be able to past that. I know I'm not reasonable towards him. But I really don't feel it. Those last minutes risers... I don't know... I can't feel them.

Nemec, he's the best D in the draft. I'd be more willing to take the bet as I believe that the D is really the best way to build a team. You can't score goals if your forwards can't get the puck.

Cooley : I just feel like between Wright and Cooley, they bring the same kind of thing but Cooley only began to be dominating this year and Wright as always been the best player of his generation. I have a tendancy to like longer track records. I do feel like we like Cooley more because we want the next Zegras.

That being said

My top 5 would have probably been :

Wright
Nemec
Cooley
Slafkovsky
Jiricek

And if we did not have acces to Wright, I would have taken a longer look at Cooley because I do value the center position a lot.