HF Habs: Draft Combine 2022 - May 30 to June 4

[SOLR]

I actually see this sentiment in the exact opposite terms. I think people are going to swing and miss on Wright hard. I haven't seen people sour on a golden boy with a resume like Wright's since 2013, and even then it wasn't this extreme. Someone called him ''Danault+'' ffs.

Wright is undervalued at this point by us prospect watchers.

We'll see 3-4 years down the road.

 

[Deebs]

I actually see this sentiment in the exact opposite terms. I think people are going to swing and miss on Wright hard. I haven't seen people sour on a golden boy with a resume like Wright's since 2013, and even then it wasn't this extreme. Someone called him ''Danault+'' ffs.

Wright is undervalued at this point by us prospect watchers.

At this point, some are wanting him to fail.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

I have seen alot more of Wright than you have and I respectfully am in 100% disagreement with you.....Prior to this season he very much alligned with Crosby and I have quite clearly laid out potential explanations for his production being lower than most had hoped.

Comparing scoring between generations and different leagues is also a huge mistake.

I listed what I perceive to be a Suzuki (+) floor and a Crosby (-) ceiling, which is entirely fair given his last 3 years. If you only want to cherry pick the data that conforms to your ridiculously low projection then you are not part of a reasonable discussion. Given the ceiling and floor that I provided there is a large variance of potential outcomes that I believe he will eventually settle into. Unlike your projection I have left room for multiple development outcomes with somewhere between Crosby light and Suzuki 2.0.......if you want to solely fixate on the improbability of reaching his absolute ceiling that I have proposed then it would appear as though your underlying motive is more contrarian based than critical analysis. I think it is more likely that he is closer to the floor that proposed than the ceiling. To say that you would absolutely rule out ant possibility of him scoring over 100 points as a true center is either purposely argumentative or you just haven't paid close attention to other players who achieved such heights despite not being expected to in their draft year. To be clear once again, because I smell a strawman heading my way, I never said that he might become Crosby but that his ceiling is a hair below Crosby which would be a center who can put up 100+ points and play his position honestly.

As for you claiming that you never said that Slafkovski might have another gear ....."while one of Nemec, Jiricek, Slaf, Cooley, find another gear under pressure"

If you are going to be contrarian at least put in an honest effort to hide it lol

Except Wright is NOTHING like Crosby. That's not even close to an upside comparison for him.

 

[le_sean]

There was a guy that developed a hockey statistical projection model (he recently went on a tsn radio/postcast) and he said that Slaskovsky is particularly risky based on his models. The model itself is based on production and adjusted to leagues and has data spanning about 20-30 years ish. He said that, based on his model, players comparable to Slafkovsky, as of now, have a 10/400 chance to become stars. One of those 10 being Rantanen in recent memory.

I felt the same way before (based off gut feeling watching him) so it was nice to see that this thought is further emphasized by a developed statistical model. To me, he's a bust.

I'd be ok with Nemec though

Byron Bader is that guy with the projection model.

405 guys the last 30 years have had a similar projection score as Rantanen. Slafkovsky is one of them. Of the 405, only 10 of them went on to become stars, the best of which is Rantanen. It was EXTREMELY unlikely for Rantanen to become as good as he is, and even being that good, he still wouldn’t go Top 3 in a redraft.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Except Wright is NOTHING like Crosby. That's not even close to an upside comparison for him.

This lol. TIL that saying Wright doesn’t have Crosby upside is “contrarian”. I’d really like to know what some of these posters are smoking, must be pretty potent stuff

 

[MarkovsKnee]

This lol. TIL that saying Wright doesn’t have Crosby upside is “contrarian”. I’d really like to know what some of these posters are smoking, must be pretty potent stuff

If you want a superstar upside then it would be Stamkos imo. Wright's shooting skills are elite, and he's a rush / PP player at this stage. He doesn't have Stamkos insane one-timer. It's more like Cammalleri's where he'll go with a short backswing to get it off quickly & get the power from his legs with a kneel.

He has better much feet than Tavares. He's lighter with way more agility. My comparison for his skating is Marner.

He's working on his explosiveness this summer, so I'm looking forward to seeing him at summer WJCs to see the improvements there.

It's the biggest thing lacking in his skating, but it's definitely something that can be improved. Both Caufield and Suzuki did. Caufield dropped in part because he was a small player who lacked explosiveness. That's definitely come around.

Wright, like Stamkos when he first entered the league, isn't much of a board guy. He prefers containment over pressure. NHL you need pressure. Containment leaves too much open ice for NHLers to work with. He needs to drive down low a lot more and pressure guys.

However, he seems to understand that he needs to be much more aggressive on players and the puck. You can't be passive. That's a big stylistic change for him. Stylistically, he compares to RNH, with a much better shooting arsenal.

The best news that came out of the combine isn't the results but the interviews. Wright is extremely self-aware and understands the criticisms and doesn't disagree with them. He knows what he needs to work on, and has a plan in place.

I'm very comfortable drafting him now because I believe he'll make the improvements necessary to become the best version of himself.

I can see him putting up modest numbers early, say 60 pts, then like Marner / MacKinnon explode in his 3rd or 4th year. He has 90 pt - 100 pt upside if he can improve the elements of his game that need improvement.

60-70, if he doesn't.

 

[Jabba11]

I don't understand where this "good 2nd line center" statement comes from for Shane Wright.
DY: Draft Year BY: Best Year in the NHL

Shane Wright has produced in a "down" year more than the following players in their draft year:
DY - 94 in 63 games

Top NHL Centers from CHL with less production than Shane Wright (excluding Nathan MacKinnon DY 75 - 44):

Ryan O'Reilly DY 66 in 68 - BY 77 in 82 + 23 in 26 Playoffs + MVP + Selke
Patrice Bergeron DY 73 in 70 - BY 79 in 65 (Record 5 Selke)
Brayden Point DY 91 in 72 - BY 92 in 79
Nazem Kadri DY 78 in 56 - BY 87 in 71
Matt Duchene DY 79 in 57 - BY 86 in 78
Mark Scheifele DY 75 in 66 - BY 84 in 82
Mathew Barzal DY 57 in 44 - BY 85 in 82
Robert Thomas DY 66 in 66 - BY 77 in 70

So, with that being said, you can say what you want, but the above mentioned centers are more productive than any Habs centers ever been since:
1995-96 Vincent Damphousse 94 in 80
1996-97 Vincent Damhousse 81 in 82
2006-07 Saku Koivu 75 in 81

Stop being entitled and stop being whining little b*** about how we can't even tank right, that we always have lottery picks when it's a bad draft, aww 2023 is so much better, bla-bla-bla... It's getting old.

This draft has depth up to the 2nd round. The quality of each of these prospects is very high. When you're talking about a Nathan Gaucher probably falling in 2nd round, Lane Hutson, Firkus late 1st, Christian Kyrou mid 2nd round, Odelius could go late 2nd, etc. Then at the top you have an exceptional status OHL top prospect that is over 6ft right handed center that is way above PPG in a down year who displayed goalscoring capabilities at all levels (U18, OHL, etc) and plays the most responsible 2-way game that I've seen in a prospect. Even Couturier was not playing as well defensively as Wright is right now. Why label him as a 70 pts center when I see him as the premier prospect that is already beyond his peers in reading and anticipating the play and has untapped offensive potential. Scoring 39 goals at 15 years is not a fluke. People need to calm down. Then, stop crying about the quality of players: Juraj is a monster, Cooley is a dynamic center of the new generation, Simon Nemec/David Jiricek are insane top D prospect that I would qualify as better than Bowen Byram was. Then you have players that all have potential for PPG in Jonathan Lekkerimaki, Savoie, Kemell and then you have powerforwards like Cutter Gauthier who I think is better than Tyler Boucher easily that went top 10. Then comes the big 3 defensemen: Korchinski, Mintyukov and Mateychuk that look to be the Pietrangelo/Schenn/Bogosian/Doughty type of quality CHL dmen. This is a very good draft and why let stupid clickbait sources/medias/people bashed on it and more importantly bashed on a top prospect that has shown he has it all to become an impact player for the Habs.

Stop asking for more, stop wanting more, reminder to y'all: we haven't had a PPG center since 1996. So, what makes you think we can have one that is Matthews/McDavid level? Relax. Quote me, Shane Wright will score >82 pts in a year within his first 5 years (18-23 years old).

 

[MTL-rules]

If you want a superstar upside then it would be Stamkos imo. Wright's shooting skills are elite, and he's a rush / PP player at this stage. He doesn't have Stamkos insane one-timer. It's more like Cammalleri's where he'll go with a short backswing to get it off quickly & get the power from his legs with a kneel.

He has better much feet than Tavares. He's lighter with way more agility. My comparison for his skating is Marner.

He's working on his explosiveness this summer, so I'm looking forward to seeing him at summer WJCs to see the improvements there.

It's the biggest thing lacking in his skating, but it's definitely something that can be improved. Both Caufield and Suzuki did. Caufield dropped in part because he was a small player who lacked explosiveness. That's definitely come around.

Wright, like Stamkos when he first entered the league, isn't much of a board guy. He prefers containment over pressure. NHL you need pressure. Containment leaves too much open ice for NHLers to work with. He needs to drive down low a lot more and pressure guys.

However, he seems to understand that he needs to be much more aggressive on players and the puck. You can't be passive. That's a big stylistic change for him. Stylistically, he compares to RNH, with a much better shooting arsenal.

The best news that came out of the combine isn't the results but the interviews. Wright is extremely self-aware and understands the criticisms and doesn't disagree with them. He knows what he needs to work on, and has a plan in place.

I'm very comfortable drafting him now because I believe he'll make the improvements necessary to become the best version of himself.

I can see him putting up modest numbers early, say 60 pts, then like Marner / MacKinnon explode in his 3rd or 4th year. He has 90 pt - 100 pt upside if he can improve the elements of his game that need improvement.

60-70, if he doesn't.

He's stronger than RNH which for the later is kind of problematic in the NHL. Not fast enough like McJesus so his light frame might have been one if the reasons why he became a 2nd line center.

As I see it, Wright's floor is RoR and his ceiling is Stamkos. So 30-45 goals 65-100pts.

Either way, we got a good one and there's no reason not to draft him 1stOV.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Except Wright is NOTHING like Crosby. That's not even close to an upside comparison for him.

So there is no chance that Wright will become a 100 point, two way center who is physically strong with a high IQ and can skate, shoot and distribute? I referred to his ceiling as being Crosby-lite which means his absolute upside if everything goes perfectly.

Don't get caught up in a mirror image of Crosby as that is not what I suggested. Prior to this season he was expected to become exactly what I just described, now suddenly that is impossible???

I have made it abundantly clear that this is not likely and he probably falls somewhere between Suzuki and Crosby. So can we please relax with the over reactions from the anti-Wright crowd.

Abstract thought people......not everything is linear and binary.

 

[ottawa]

Draft day cannot come soon enough, we're already all turning on each other

 

[MarkovsKnee]

So there is no chance that Wright will become a 100 point, two way center who is physically strong with a high IQ and can skate, shoot and distribute? I referred to his ceiling as being Crosby-lite which means his absolute upside if everything goes perfectly.

Don't get caught up in a mirror image of Crosby as that is not what I suggested. Prior to this season he was expected to become exactly what I just described, now suddenly that is impossible???

I have made it abundantly clear that this is not likely and he probably falls somewhere between Suzuki and Crosby. So can we please relax with the over reactions from the anti-Wright crowd.

Abstract thought people......not everything is linear and binary.

Are you calling me anti-wright?

 

[Timelord]

Draft day cannot come soon enough, we're already all turning on each other

It's like a family vacation:

Don't make me turn this car around!

 

[WeThreeKings]

Are you calling me anti-wright?

better than Alt-Wright

 

[le_sean]

Draft day cannot come soon enough, we're already all turning on each other

No we aren’t, f*** you

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I’m not clicking with the logic here that if we trade a Josh Anderson we might just get an amazing pick. Hell, he may even be as good as Josh Anderson.

Josh Anderson now is not the Josh Anderson you'll get in 3-4 years when we start competing again.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

1 - Wright
2 - Nemec
3 - Cooley
4 - Jiricek
5 - Slafkovski

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

1 - Wright
2 - Nemec
3 - Cooley
4 - Jiricek
5 - Slafkovski

Pretty much my list but Cooley and nemec switched. But anyone who has followed my annoying postings knows I've been the Nemec #1 fanboy all year

 

[JustAHabFan]

Draft day cannot come soon enough, we're already all turning on each other

Is it something that has always been a part of Habs fans?

 

[Redux91]

Draft day cannot come soon enough, we're already all turning on each other

Lol
But 2018 was WAAAAAY worse tho
Like, bad lol

 

[Wats]

Isn't the fact that Wright's results weren't the greatest somewhat good. He has more room to improve physically.

 

[Vachon23]

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Or Yakupov 1st.

It's not tautological, because it's not a lottery. It's not a set of logical probabilities, it's analog.

Yakupov is such a bad example.

In the last 20 years, there's been one single complete bust out of all the 1st OV and it was Yakupov.

But you say it as though it happens more often.

Wright won't be a Yakupov. And he'll be better than RNH.

 

[themilosh]

Can we keep these going?

Dearest Mother,

It's been two score since I last wrote, and much has happened on the farm. It appears I may be finding work in New France. I'll know more In July, the year of our lord two thousand twenty two.

Forever yours,
Shane

 

[Sterling Archer]

For anyone worried about Wright, don’t. There have been a handful of 1st OA picks who didn’t amount to much in their NHL career. Maybe 1 every decade and non had Wrights lineage either.

No one knows if he’ll be the best pick in the draft but at this point, he is the BPA. So you go with your best odds and the chances of him panning out are VERY high. I’ll take a skilled center over a big winger any day of the week. For some reason big wingers have a much higher bust rate than 1st OA centres do, even as top 3 picks.

So whereas it’s fun to debate and get your points in, Wright is elite and has a better than 90% chance of panning out, especially on a team that’s rebuilding where he’ll be brought along at his pace and there’s no need to rush him. I’ll take those odds to the bank.

 

[1909]

Slaf loves cameras.... Reminds me of Subban !