Do you want to win the lottery?

[Evilsports]

Read my edit. In what way am I wishing bad things on the org. I think the chance that bad things occur will increase if this org gets another #1 to be seduced by while already not developing the ones they have properly.

Another #1 pick has these possible results;

1)Increases the chances of a mega deal where we trade a player of Halls Caliber. Unfortunately we won't get we want because teams don't generally trade franchise D for anything and why would they?

2)Org gets offseason of contentment at having yet another shiny #1 pick, sees this as accomplishment, see's this helping whereas I see it as likely to warehouse yet more young prospects instead of recruiting useful vets.

3) Around the league, GM's already sick of this teams operations would rather make a deal with the devil than help this org out. So that any big package deal we do make we're getting fleeced on.

The chance? lol How many #1 chances does an org need to get it right. By sheer decency alone I would want no part in further such *chances*. I want an org with a clue actually building something of their own acumen.

I would counter #1 with the idea that an increase in draft pick value actually lowers the odds/need to trade Hall. (I really don't see Hall going anywhere this year regardless of draft position.)

#2 is a return to the idea that our management team will be so smitten with the idea of picking an elite forward with the 1OA that they will somehow forget how to manage. I find this to be a scenario bordering on laughable. That said, the Oilers have made many laughable choices in the past..

#3 is less of an argument against the 1OA and more of an indictment of the sad state of affairs. No argument here.

However, the idea that heading into the draft with a less valuable pick is going to have results akin to removing the training wheels from a child's pedal bike is an emotional idea on the surface, with the underlying potential of self destructiveness.

The argument that being in the best position possible to draft or trade an asset will somehow cause a managerial short circuit is a biased one (and I'm not saying that the bias isn't well grounded).

You said that you were going to reserve judgement on the new management team until significant progress has occurred, which is a fair position. That's a two way street though in that you can't really sit back and tell them to prove their competence, but then in the next breath talk about not wanting them to be in a position to deal with the best potential assets available.

 

[Seachd]

I would counter #1 with the idea that an increase in draft pick value actually lowers the odds/need to trade Hall. (I really don't see Hall going anywhere this year regardless of draft position.)

I'm also failing to see how adding Auston Matthews increases the chances that Hall is traded.

 

[Replacement*]

However, the idea that heading into the draft with a less valuable pick is going to have results akin to removing the training wheels from a child's pedal bike is an emotional idea on the surface, with the underlying potential of self destructiveness.

The argument that being in the best position possible to draft or trade an asset will somehow cause a managerial short circuit is a biased one (and I'm not saying that the bias isn't well grounded).

You said that you were going to reserve judgement on the new management team until significant progress has occurred, which is a fair position. That's a two way street though in that you can't really sit back and tell them to prove their competence, but then in the next breath talk about not wanting them to be in a position to deal with the best potential assets available.

Chia has been seduced before, sold the farm before. Like I said getting the first pick just increases the likelihood of a major deal as Chia gets speed dialed by everybody in the league all rubbing their hands together in glee.

imo this is the worst possible time to be getting another #1 and partly due to how this org already disservices the #1's they have.

One thing we haven't considered, and perhaps should, is how much of a joke and circus this org is to even the players on this club. With another pick even increasing that and what our players end up hearing on the ice from other clubs.

I'd rather there be less focus on the Oilers for a number of reasons. Even getting McDavid I think has impacted some players adversely in some ways.

Now we got the new arena coming also increasing focus. I think the harsh glare doesn't help these players progress and develop. Theres nonstop distractions here. This season it was the McDavid circus. (no knock on McDavid, but just what naturally ensues with that)

This is a 3 ring circus.

 

[Evilsports]

I'm also failing to see how adding Auston Matthews increases the chances that Hall is traded.

I would suspect that the argument will be made that management may be shortsighted enough to believe that a Laine-ish player would be a sufficient replacement for Hall (possibly that the low cost of the rookie might offset any skill disparity)?

 

[Replacement*]

I'm also failing to see how adding Auston Matthews increases the chances that Hall is traded.

I'm failing to see how yet another #1 pick is anything but dubious benefit and further circus chaos after already having 4 and with the team disserving at least one of them already.

Just more of a chorus of players we can devalue I guess. Either through play or trade..

 

[Replacement*]

I would suspect that the argument will be made that management may be shortsighted enough to believe that a Laine-ish player would be a sufficient replacement for Hall (possibly that the low cost of the rookie might offset any skill disparity)?

That argument already has been made. Or at least inferred. Why do you think I'm stating that another #1 pick would only FURTHER lead to the org disrespecting, and doing disservice, to the players it already has part of which is devaluing them which has occurred to everybody but Hall.

But if not Hall then Eberle, Nuge, Yak, certainly become more expendable if the org is seduced into thinking the #1 what services replacement.

 

[Evilsports]

Chia has been seduced before, sold the farm before. Like I said getting the first pick just increases the likelihood of a major deal as Chia gets speed dialed by everybody in the league all rubbing their hands together in glee.

imo this is the worst possible time to be getting another #1 and partly due to how this org already disservices the #1's they have.

One thing we haven't considered, and perhaps should, is how much of a joke and circus this org is to even the players on this club. With another pick even increasing that and what our players end up hearing on the ice from other clubs.

I'd rather there be less focus on the Oilers for a number of reasons. Even getting McDavid I think has impacted some players adversely in some ways.

Now we got the new arena coming also increasing focus. I think the harsh glare doesn't help these players progress and develop. Theres nonstop distractions here. This season it was the McDavid circus. (no knock on McDavid, but just what naturally ensues with that)

This is a 3 ring circus.

At the end of the day the best way to silence critics (if they bother you), is to succeed. Even if it doesn't silence them..... you've succeeded.

The best way to succeed is to win games. The best way to win games is debatable, but having strong talent is one aspect. The best way to acquire strong talent is also debatable, but drafting it is one way to do it at no asset cost to your organization. The best way to draft strong talent is to be in a strong position on draft day. The best way to be in strong position on draft day, at this point, is to win the draft lottery. Ergo, the best way to silence critics and diffuse the harsh glare of judgement is to win the draft lottery.

 

[Replacement*]

At the end of the day the best way to silence critics (if they bother you), is to succeed. Even if it doesn't silence them..... you succeeded.

The best way to succeed is to win games. The best way to win games is debatable, but having strong talent is one aspect. The best way to acquire strong talent is also debatable, but drafting it is one way to do it at no asset cost to your organization. The best way to draft strong talent is to be in a strong position on draft day. The best way to be in strong position on draft day, at this point, is to win the draft lottery. Ergo, the best way to silence critics and diffuse the harsh glare of judgement is to win the draft lottery.

Maybe I'm not making one of my points clear. An unending stream of top picks does not help our core succeed. It helps it, and the players on it to not be individually accountable, to not look in the mirror every game. It causes such things as a former #1 pick center, RNH, looking over his shoulders all year and realistically thinking he's not a big part of things anymore. McDavid is great, but ultimately its a notch down for all the others. On an org that lacks accountability the results can be tragic. Players simply looking down the bench for somebody else to get it done which we've seen all season. This is not a conscious process, its what occurs to a lineup filled with supposed stars. The result being theres less rowing.

Theres such a thing as too much of a good thing. It removes individual responsibility and accountability. Creates situations where the team even fairly ignores the needs of at least 1 of the top picks.

We want more of this?

Theres already way too much star vacuum here. Too little work ethic and application.

We already have most of what any club should need in core ingredients. (with the exception of D but with the help we need not likely coming in trade)

I can hope for OEL but I don't realistically see that happening.

 

[Evilsports]

For the record, I get where those opposed to a draft lottery win are coming from. I share the same hesitations, speculations, and exasperations.

I'm simply trying to approach it from a pragmatic angle. "What it the best position to be in on draft day for the Oilers?", without allowing the failures of the last decade to poison my judgement.

 

[Seachd]

I'm failing to see how yet another #1 pick is anything but dubious benefit and further circus chaos after already having 4 and with the team disserving at least one of them already.

Just more of a chorus of players we can devalue I guess. Either through play or trade..

That doesn't address my post, but ok. You're saying if they take Matthews his trade value will go down? I'm not sure I see the relevance.

 

[Gord]

No. I'm cool with the 2nd or 3rd pick, but 5 first overalls in 7 years is way too much of an embarrassing stain on this franchise. I'd be furious if it was another team getting this kind of luck and they continued to suck.

my thoughts exactly. hope the oilers pick 2nd or 3rd, which is still one heck of a player or trading piece.

 

[Evilsports]

Maybe I'm not making one of my points clear. An unending stream of top picks does not help our core succeed. It helps it, and the players on it to not be individually accountable, to not look in the mirror every game. It causes such things as a former #1 pick center, RNH, looking over his shoulders all year and realistically thinking he's not a big part of things anymore. McDavid is great, but ultimately its a notch down for all the others. On an org that lacks accountability the results can be tragic. Players simply looking down the bench for somebody else to get it done which we've seen all season. This is not a conscious process, its what occurs to a lineup filled with supposed stars. The result being theres less rowing.

Theres such a thing as too much of a good thing. It removes individual responsibility and accountability. Creates situations where the team even fairly ignores the needs of at least 1 of the top picks.

We want more of this?

Theres already way too much star vacuum here. Too little work ethic and application.

We already have most of what any club should need in core ingredients. (with the exception of D but with the help we need not likely coming in trade)

I can hope for OEL but I don't realistically see that happening.

I understand your point.

I disagree that this is something best remedied by hoping that we lose the game of chance, which is the draft lottery.

I disagree that we have too much talent.

I agree that we have a lack of accountability and work ethic, however I disagree that the solution to this lies within our willingness to inject "less talented" players into our roster.

The entire basis of my position is that drafting 1OA puts us in the best possible position to find a player best suited for our team, or to trade down to that spot. Whether you want the most talent or the best attitude or the a strong work ethic from a player, having the most options in front of you will give you the highest likelihood of success.

I simply can't subscribe to a theory that seems to be based on draft lottery self-flagellation as a means to improving our team.

Are the issues you raise prevalent and potentially destructive to the culture of our team? Absolutely. Picking first overall is not the root of these issues. Having inept leadership, lack of discipline and accountability, and a revolving door of bosses has played a much larger role in these issues than getting lucky on lottery day has. In my opinion.

 

[Replacement*]

That doesn't address my post, but ok. You're saying if they take Matthews his trade value will go down? I'm not sure I see the relevance.

I'm saying that each time we pick a #1 it devalues the worth and reliance on the players we already have. Which is not serving benefit to either those players or the team.

Question.

Would Nuge be better on another team where he wasn't in the shadow of McDavid?

Would Yakupov be better on another team where he was the only #1 pick on a team that actually viewed that as a potentially valuable commodity?

The embarrassment of riches in #1 picks services mainly an inevitable devaluation of those in a vacuum of org responsibility.

This org does not insure, expect, or develop excellence. A raft of top picks actually at least financially, and marketing wise removes any requirement that the team actually ever gets better.

This is becoming one of the most marketable NHL teams while perennially losing. But with lots of cereal box stars all doing less well than they would elsewhere.

The Edmonton Oilers, a team that only looks like a good lineup on paper. Not on the ice.

As far as the trade value of the pick that goes down if we win it just due to how poorly and desperate this org is perceived. Bids will start low.

 

[Evilsports]

my thoughts exactly. hope the oilers pick 2nd or 3rd, which is still one heck of a player or trading piece.

The embarrassing stain on the franchise is being in the position to even be in lottery contention, based on a decade of losing. There's no embarrassment inherent to winning a game of chance though.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Like how getting Yak in 2012 was the best we could get?

I just don't like the idea of getting another centre. If it turns out you can't move that pick for fair value then it's pointless.

Suppose you would rather have Hanafin than McDavid following your line of thinking.

 

[Evilsports]

The mismanagement of our talent is not an indictment of the position we held going into those drafts. You can't blame an inanimate situation for the failings of human beings.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Hey look, someone has derailed another thread by being the contrarian.

Zzzzzzzz.......

 

[Replacement*]

The embarrassing stain on the franchise is being in the position to even be in lottery contention, based on a decade of losing. There's no embarrassment inherent to winning a game of chance though.

Here we disagree.

For instance the mere presence of McDavid on ice and in the lineup only services the rest of the league and its fans never forgetting our draft ball excess. The game of chance in this sense being a flashing red light that never goes off. Unfortunately not a goal light..

I understand your argument, but its somewhat disconnected to separate the two.

Of course association with top picks occurs through those top picks being accrued and playing.

Finally, the poster meme of the ridiculousness of this franchise is Bill Daly pulling out the perennial Oilers card with the whole league getting that punchline. When not complaining about it.

But definitely winning the draft DOES add to how this club is perceived as ridiculous.

 

[Evilsports]

Hey look, Replacement has dominated another thread by being the contrarian.

Zzzzzzzz.......

To be honest, I personally appreciate his position on this. I don't agree with it yet, but I do appreciate it.

 

[CupofOil]

I'm saying that each time we pick a #1 it devalues the worth and reliance on the players we already have. Which is not serving benefit to either those players or the team.

Question.

Would Nuge be better on another team where he wasn't in the shadow of McDavid?

Would Yakupov be better on another team where he was the only #1 pick on a team that actually viewed that as a potentially valuable commodity?

The embarrassment of riches in #1 picks services mainly an inevitable devaluation of those in a vacuum of org responsibility.

This org does not insure, expect, or develop excellence. A raft of top picks actually at least financially, and marketing wise removes any requirement that the team actually ever gets better.

This is becoming one of the most marketable NHL teams while perennially losing. But with lots of cereal box stars all doing less well than they would elsewhere.

The Edmonton Oilers, a team that only looks like a good lineup on paper. Not on the ice.

As far as the trade value of the pick that goes down if we win it just due to how poorly and desperate this org is perceived. Bids will start low.

So finishing #2 instead of #1 will change all this?

I will never EVER understand why anybody in their right mind would root for their favorite team to get a lesser valued asset. It defies all logic.

At least you clarified your position instead of a drive by post with little reasoning like some others do so credit for that even if I disagree.

 

[Evilsports]

Here we disagree.

For instance the mere presence of McDavid on ice and in the lineup only services the rest of the league and its fans never forgetting our draft ball excess. The game of chance in this sense being a flashing red light that never goes off. Unfortunately not a goal light..

I understand your argument, but its somewhat disconnected to separate the two.

Of course association with top picks occurs through those top picks being accrued and playing.

Finally, the poster meme of the ridiculousness of this franchise is Bill Daly pulling out the perennial Oilers card with the whole league getting that punchline. When not complaining about it.

But definitely winning the draft DOES add to how this club is perceived as ridiculous.

I'm OK with differing in this respect. I'll never care as much about what the rest of the league thinks as I will about winning. I would suspect that a deep playoff run will do wonders to assuage any lingering trauma that a draft lottery win might inflict...

 

[Replacement*]

The mismanagement of our talent is not an indictment of the position we held going into those drafts. You can't blame an inanimate situation for the failings of human beings.

Philosophically we disagree here as well and countless historical events certainly connect the two. To near universal and total failure on societal, and individual basis.

But way beyond the purview of this board and discussion.

But I can see how the above statement hilites some of our different perceptions on this.

Situational anarchy, chaos, and resultant free fall is real to me and occurs in the world.

 

[Replacement*]

So finishing #2 instead of #1 will change all this?

I will never EVER understand why anybody in their right mind would root for their favorite team to get a lesser valued asset. It defies all logic.

At least you clarified your position instead of a drive by post with little reasoning like some others do so credit for that even if I disagree.

"Anybody in their right mind" might not still be here hoping beyond hope for a different result.

OK, I'm saying that tongue in cheek obviously. I like to think.

 

[Roof Daddy]

I can't believe anyone would vote no, particularly the reasoning behind some of the votes.

- 4 in 6 years is embarrassing enough.

Would you hold that same opinion if we finished as high as possible in the lottery position in the years we won? (5th the first 3 times, 14th the McDavid year). The embarrassing part is a decade without the playoffs, and the best way to correct that is go all in trying to acquire a top pair RHD. That becomes easier to acquire with a 1st overall pick in play than a 4th overall pick.

To quote Mark McGwire "I'm not here to talk about the past" (which, oddly enough was exactly what he was summoned to court for, but I digress). The point is, Chia is here to fix the mess he inherited, not share the embarrassment of past seasons he had no control over. 1st overall gives him more flexibility and potential trade value than 4/5th overall. We have no idea how another team's GM values our current players or the prospects at the top of the draft class. Maybe Drai is more valuable to a certain team than Matthews? Maybe Hall nets the best possible D man and taking Laine makes the most sense? Maybe there's hidden value in trading a roster player and replacing him with a player from this draft that doesn't need to be protected in an expansion draft?

But those are the rational reasons why it would be nice to win the lottery. I'm all about trolling these boards.

 

[TheRebuild]

I want to win it, just so that we can watch and enjoy the level of butt hurt the fans of other teams exhibit.