Devon Toews is underpaid

[Trinstin]

Yes, people here have the attention span of a goldfish and are looking to anoint Sakic King of GMs after uniformly dumping on him a couple years ago, even though the amount of times he's gone past the 2nd round of the playoffs remains the same.

I'm just pointing out that at the time the Toews trade stood out as a major overpayment in a super deprecated market whether it worked out or not.

People were dumping on Sakic for moves he hadn't made, much different than moves that he has already made. Once he made that Duchene trade the opinion on Sakic quickly turned around and for good reason. Two years isn't the attention span of a goldfish... that is two years. For what it's worth, I've always had faith in Sakic, my all time favorite hockey player. Class act and just an all around great human being from my many years of following the guy.

 

[flyfysher]

Could be a matter of team play style relative to the Dmans skill set, or just coming into his own still. Burakovsky is a forward example, majorly stepped up on his new team.

Nick Jensen is an example both between multiple teams, and with the same team under two coaches. He was better under Detroit and is better now with Laviollete as coach than he ever was under Reirden.

current system involving the D way more, and how they’re instructed to play suits his skating/handling ability.

Valuation is different than say a traditional #1 D-man IMO because it’s a matter of matching skill set to position given how the team plays a game that emphasizes skill and transition/possession. What’s a #2 D-man for the Avs might not be top pair on another team. This sort of mismatch allows for value acquisitions like Toews. Burakovsky and Donskoi are two others. Nichushkin literally fell into Sakic’s lap.

I’d also argue the type of game which the Avs play has not only elevated Burakovsky and Donskoi’s production but evened out their streakiness. That, for me, is recognizing an underperforming player given their role on their team and having enough vision and foresight to see how they would fit on the Avs.

 

[Arto Kilponen]

If you look at the d-men drafted in the second round in, say, 2010-2017, without absolutely hand sight cherry picking, what's the odds you'd get a pair that would be good enough to trade for Toews right now? If we are ok to assume Avalanche to finish in 2020-21 and 2021-22 in standings so that they make the playoffs, then let's say those picks have to also be not in top-45. So roughly 46th to 64th overalls. Who do you have as your top d-man pair from those (or feel free to expand it a bit to earlier years too) drafts?

Here's examples of d-men drafted there:
Stephen Johns, Justin Holl, Mark Alt, Martin Marincin, Tyler Wotherspoon, Xavier Ouellet, Joel Edmundson, Damon Severson, Adam Pelech, Carl Dahlstrom, Brandon Montour, Vince Dunn, Samuel Girard, Ian Mitchell.

Ok, Girard + Edmundson is a pair you'd take for Toews, sure, Adam Pelech isn't that bad either. But you'd actually have to hit a jackpot to draft two of those three to say that Toews wasn't worth the two second rounders.

Also if we look what NYI has actually themselves managed to draft as d-men even with very high draft picks: Noah Dobson, Griffin Reinhart, Ville Pokka, Scott Mayfield, Calvin De Haan. I'm ready to bet a fortune that neither of those second rounders turns into anything even close to as good as Toews is.

 

[flyfysher]

If you look at the d-men drafted in the second round in, say, 2010-2017, without absolutely hand sight cherry picking, what's the odds you'd get a pair that would be good enough to trade for Toews right now? If we are ok to assume Avalanche to finish in 2020-21 and 2021-22 in standings so that they make the playoffs, then let's say those picks have to also be not in top-45. So roughly 46th to 64th overalls. Who do you have as your top d-man pair from those (or feel free to expand it a bit to earlier years too) drafts?

Here's examples of d-men drafted there:
Stephen Johns, Justin Holl, Mark Alt, Martin Marincin, Tyler Wotherspoon, Xavier Ouellet, Joel Edmundson, Damon Severson, Adam Pelech, Carl Dahlstrom, Brandon Montour, Vince Dunn, Samuel Girard, Ian Mitchell.

Ok, Girard + Edmundson is a pair you'd take for Toews, sure, Adam Pelech isn't that bad either. But you'd actually have to hit a jackpot to draft two of those three to say that Toews wasn't worth the two second rounders.

Also if we look what NYI has actually themselves managed to draft as d-men even with very high draft picks: Noah Dobson, Griffin Reinhart, Ville Pokka, Scott Mayfield, Calvin De Haan. I'm ready to bet a fortune that neither of those second rounders turns into anything even close to as good as Toews is.

Two second rounders for a plug and play top pairing D-man that excels on the PK and can provide offense despite not being named Makar? Did I mention he can move the puck too? Sign me up.

 

[Arto Kilponen]

Two second rounders for a plug and play top pairing D-man that excels on the PK and can provide offense despite not being named Makar? Did I mention he can move the puck too? Sign me up.

With this current Toews form, seriously, you could give two first rounders (let's say they are top-10 protected) and those two probably wouldn't turn into a pair that's worth of Toews. Again, sure, absolutely you can hand-pick such guys from the past drafts, but for every single such pair you pick that would be good enough to trade Toews for, I can pick you two pairs that I would never trade Toews for.

 

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

He’s absolutely not a true #5 was my point, and the Avs knew it (and likely other teams as well)... at the very worst is a great second pair defenseman on a contender. The Avs are ahead of a lot of teams using newer and newer metrics to evaluate players, and or are better at it than many, and the metrics showed he played well above his position. **There were almost certainly other teams trying to get Toews. They wanted to make sure they got him (also, lots of teams are devaluing 2021 draft picks because of the world context impact on scouting and play time )

It was a gamble, but not that much of a gamble and was absolutely worth locking him up over other teams. Again, he’s played like a top pair defenseman this year and literally has been their top pair defenseman with and without Makar. He’s legitimately great for this team and would be for a lot of teams in a league where defenseman are routinely in high demand, with few available. Teams would pay way the hell more got Toews now which is why the Avs got him when they did.

Even if he only plays great for them for 4 years, if it’s top 4 and especially if he plays as well as he is this year, he was a much safer bet for value than any 2nd round pick could possible be. You don’t land gems every draft with every pick, and they would still likely take years as defensemen typically develops a lot slower towards their peak than forwards.

Makar, Girard and Toews are one of the very best top 3 defenseman groups for any team this season. They’re a huge reason for the Avs putting up absurd stats this past stretch and generally have been great all season.

Again, Toews has been huge when Makar was injured. His positive impact on his team measured in a variety of ways on their top pair approaching 25 minutes has been better than the overwhelming majority of dmen this season.

excellent trade


*Mind you, Trotz is a great coach, but he’s far from perfect especially at utilizing and evaluating young players.

fun fact: he routinely scratched an already very good but learning Nate Schmidt, who was solid all around and also had good metrics, for “will over skill (or effectiveness)”Tim freaking Gleason who was ass for the Caps.

Schmidt gets traded to the Knights and, well, you know.(edit: was left exposed, but all the same he was better than multiple of the Dmen they had and was scratched/3rd pair a ton of games)

Schmidt was a top pairing player on a team in cap trouble and was still traded within conference for a third rounder.

Toews was a third pairing and should have returned less.

Two second rounders is worth more than a third rounder. Everyone suggesting otherwise is wrong.

Sakic overpaid and will regret it.

 

[Arto Kilponen]

Sakic overpaid and will regret it.

How will this happen? Is it like "I feel bad that Islanders is selecting now, it was our pick " type of regret or that Islanders picks some Robin Salo that wins consecutive Hart Trophies and Sakic thinks that "This Toews actually sucks " or what's the way this happens?

 

[Cousin Eddie]

NEB is the best

 

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

How will this happen? Is it like "I feel bad that Islanders is selecting now, it was our pick " type of regret or that Islanders picks some Robin Salo that wins consecutive Hart Trophies and Sakic thinks that "This Toews actually sucks " or what's the way this happens?

When Makar gets a raise the Avs are suddenly in cap hell with many key players hitting UFA.

 

[Chips]

Schmidt was a top pairing player on a team in cap trouble and was still traded within conference for a third rounder.

Toews was a third pairing and should have returned less.

Two second rounders is worth more than a third rounder. Everyone suggesting otherwise is wrong.

Sakic overpaid and will regret it.

You are almost unanimously disagreed with, but okay.

even if he overpaid by today’s abnormal temporary standards, he still was underpaid for compared to what almost every team pays to acquire a guy like Toews. You don’t seem to understand the concept of development if you think he was always going to be lesser than he is now because he once performed less than is now, and still conveniently ignoring that usage is a coaches choice rather than some objective universe-determined finality. Giordano was closer to 30 than 25 when he become a multi season Norris threat. Defensemen development are inconsistent

basically half the league needs a top 4 defenseman every year, and many would kill for a top pair defenseman. They tend to pay a current good player and or better picks.
There’s literally no reason to think Toews isn’t a legit #2, #3 at worst based on his current performance and his steady improvement before. If the Avs had balked at two 2nds and someone else got him, they’d have to pay an arm and a leg to get him or another. They weren’t about to get Nate Schmidt for a 3rd from a division/conference competitor, and he’s more expensive anyhow.


fact is
1.That isles team is/was deep on defense;
2. Stats people, the kind being snatched up by teams, had be saying for a while he was poised to break out, and expected he’d perform better regardless in a system better made for his skills,
3. He played a system that stymies their forwards offense, let alone their defensemen lol. Barzal has been inconsistent to say the least, but he had ppg his rookie season, and is on pace for us second 60pt season since.

the Avs saw a chance to nab a solid depth piece and were willing to risk the pay to nab him before someone else.

Different players fit better or worse on some teams more than others. My primary point with Schmidt is that Trotz (or any coach) under utilizing a defenseman doesn’t mean he’s not a terrific defenseman capable of performing better on a team that intends to use him more. You see players break out on new teams sometimes, it’s happened for ever. I doubt anybody on the Avs is ever going to lose sleep over a couple 2nds

 

[Chips]

When Makar gets a raise the Avs are suddenly in cap hell with many key players hitting UFA.

That’s years down the line (and he’ll probably get a bridge until cap starts to rise), and they’ve got Byram anyhow. That’s assuming they don’t lose one of these D in the expansion anyway, but GMs job isn’t pure short term or long term.

Maybe they’ll choose option B and protect their top line and as many D as they want. In any case, they have a legit chance this season with Toews, and further teams have worked magic with the cap. You act like they can’t cut depth elsewhere and or trade for more picks later. I’d trust the GM more than some random fan to have a couple option A/B plans lol

they pay a decent amount to their bottom 6 forwards. Those guys are a dime a dozen, and are drafted plenty low. Teams can replenish y

 

[Super Hans]

NEB is the best

NEB is cringe.

 

[Arto Kilponen]

When Makar gets a raise the Avs are suddenly in cap hell with many key players hitting UFA.

I don't think the paid trade price affects to the re-signed contract value.

Also for a d-man that
1) Plays 24 minutes per game, including over three minutes penalty killing per game
2) Is in +/- a top-5 among NHL d-men
3) Is in goals a top-10 among NHL d-men
4) Takes a minor penalty in less than every 10th game
5) Misses less than 3 % of the games
I'm more than fine with taking less than 5% of the team cap space. Seriously, if Colorado is screwed with cap space problems, Devon Toews is pretty much the last player you point your finger at and say "That guy takes a too big chunk".

 

[Quickdraw2828]

He always looked great when I watched the Isles and I'm genuinely surprised they let him go. I assume he was a cap casualty but still, he'd have been one of my highest priorities to retain if I were their GM. Was it a choice between him and another player?

It was sign him or sign Barzal

 

[Thrasymachus]

Really glad he is doing well in Colorado. In an ideal world he wouldn't have been a cap casualty for us, but it is what it is. We got some useful assets for our empty cupboard, Avs get an excellent defenseman.

I would feel a lot more sour if we didn't have Dobson to take Devon's spot.

 

[Chips]

Really glad he is doing well in Colorado. In an ideal world he wouldn't have been a cap casualty for us, but it is what it is. We got some useful assets for our empty cupboard, Avs get an excellent defenseman.

I would feel a lot more sour if we didn't have Dobson to take Devon's spot.

If they had known about Boychuk already (did they?) would they have had 4.5 mil for him?

 

[2ndGenIslander]

I understand that, but you can't debate that Mayfield or someone else that the Islanders decided to keep is better than Toews though.

Toews is lightyears better than mayfield, but mayfields cap hit is only around what 1.4 mil

 

[aufheben]

As far as I’m concerned, employing Joe Sakic is cheating.

 

[aufheben]

Lol, I like how you have to pretend like I said Dillon sucks. Anyways, I can't but help wonder how much better Tanev or Schmidt would look in Washington and how Dillon would look on one of their teams if roles were reversed for instance. Dillon was decent but nothing special in San Jose after all. And Justin Schultz is having a better season than most of those players as well even if he's clearly inferior to them.

Dillon does suck though.

 

[Thrasymachus]

If they had known about Boychuk already (did they?) would they have had 4.5 mil for him?

I chalk a lot of it up to Lou being new to the Isles and not understanding our org completely... we resigned Hickey for instance and he wound up being buried by our depth on the back end. We also signed Komarov because I think Lou thought the Isles were entering a rebuild, not contending

 

[S E P H]

Toews is lightyears better than mayfield, but mayfields cap hit is only around what 1.4 mil

I understand that they do not play similar roles so keeping Mayfield is a good choice from the Isle front office, but keeping Leddy over Toews is a bad decision IMHO. Not that it really matters in the end since Dobson is going to be better than any of them.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

I chalk a lot of it up to Lou being new to the Isles and not understanding our org completely... we resigned Hickey for instance and he wound up being buried by our depth on the back end. We also signed Komarov because I think Lou thought the Isles were entering a rebuild, not contending

He said that he expected to turn over at least 50% of the team by the end of the first season. They surprised all the critics and then everyone got multi-year extensions. Kinda threw the initial plan out the window for obvious reasons.

Think about all the draft picks we'd have if we jettisoned Lehner, Lee, Eberle, Nelson, etc though!!!!11111

on edit: Since this is a Toews thread I think most Isles fans agree on a couple of things:

1. They tried to ditch Leddy with no takers
2. Unfortunately Toews was odd man out
3. Toews going to arbitration would've meant a lot of reshuffling of the roster so they ditched him knowing Dobson would take his minutes
4. We all were happy he went out west but cringed because Lou traded him to the perfect team for his skillset
5. We all wish him well, he had some great moments on the Island and he was well-liked by his teammates.

 

[Arto Kilponen]

I understand that they do not play similar roles so keeping Mayfield is a good choice from the Isle front office, but keeping Leddy over Toews is a bad decision IMHO. Not that it really matters in the end since Dobson is going to be better than any of them.

Wake me up once he is.

 

[blinkman360]

Toews was great for us and it definitely hurt to see him go, but I'm curious to see how he does in the playoffs. The only negative I can remember about his game was his fear of taking a hit during the postseason. There were a handful of occasions where he either wouldn't go into the corner first or iced the puck instead of taking the extra stride(along with a hit) to get the red line. I specifically remember it costing us at least one goal after an icing. I never really noticed it as a problem during the regular season but once the physicality upped in the playoffs it became pretty apparent.

Either way I'm curious to see if he has fixed this part of his game once the postseason rolls around.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

NEB is the best

I think you mean NEJT