Devon Toews is underpaid

[AD1066]

He always looked great when I watched the Isles and I'm genuinely surprised they let him go. I assume he was a cap casualty but still, he'd have been one of my highest priorities to retain if I were their GM. Was it a choice between him and another player?

 

[Cousin Eddie]

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Did/is ej going to waive his nmc or do you expect them to go 8-1? instead of 7-3-1

Yeah, I think they will ask EJ to waive and protect 7-3-1.

If he won’t waive they’ll probably buy him out, or attach an asset to him to trade him.

They won’t lose Makar, Girard, or Toews.

 

[HTFN]

I don't think you understand why the Avs are so good. It's because they acquired good players that fit their system, not simply good players. Burakovsky was an overpayment at the time and half of Washington fans were saying he was a bust. He ended up going PPG+ in last years playoffs and he's easily worth more than what we paid for him now.

Toews averaged 20 minutes with the Islanders, he may have been 3rd/4th in their depth chart in Trotz's system but that isn't the case with the Avs. He's been one of our most consistent defenders and he plays in all situations. If you want to compare it to every other transaction in the summer, go ahead. But I guarantee Toews will still be a top pairing defenseman on the Avs 4 years from now when his contract is up at the age of 32. You can't say the same for Tanev or Schmidt.

But you're right, I wish Sakic would've given up a 2nd + 3rd for Dillon, who is signed for 200k less to play 17 minutes a night. Much better to have paid fair value for an inferior player rather than 'overpaid' for Toews.

Jesus Christ, HFBoards, you're getting worse at revisionist history to make a point every single day.

Burakovsky wasn't a bust, he was a change of scenery player. We were fine with him being good, half of us expected it, he just wasn't going to do it here. Seriously, you guys don't need to make everything the most dramatic or extreme variant of the truth to have a point.

 

[BKarchitect]

It’s not so much that the Isles screwed up trading Toews - they were in a cap crunch and still have Pulock, Pelech, Leddy, Mayfield and the gem of all of them in Dobson with Bolduc, Aho and Salo all looking like good bets to be some level of NHL defenders. I don’t think anybody needs to cry for their blueline. And two second rounders are handy.

What it was, simply put, was an incredibly shrewd move by Sakic for an underrated blueliner who had the attributes to fit the Avs blueline construction like a glove.

Weird rant on the previous page...I stopped at “Sakic overpaid for Toews”. Not worth reading beyond that ridiculous notion.

 

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

It’s not so much that the Isles screwed up trading Toews - they were in a cap crunch and still have Pulock, Pelech, Leddy, Mayfield and the gem of all of them in Dobson with Bolduc, Aho and Salo all looking like good bets to be some level of NHL defenders. I don’t think anybody needs to cry for their blueline. And two second rounders are handy.

What it was, simply put, was an incredibly shrewd move by Sakic for an underrated blueliner who had the attributes to fit the Avs blueline construction like a glove.

Weird rant on the previous page...I stopped at “Sakic overpaid for Toews”. Not worth reading beyond that ridiculous notion.

Toews was a #5 in his late 20s on a team over the cap. A shrewd GM gets a pick when taking on a cap dump. Sakic gives up value and everyone calls him a hero.

 

[2ndGenIslander]

He's been their most consistent player and arguably their MVP this season aside from Grubauer. He's exceeded even my wildest expectations so far. Guy is an absolute gamer; still can't believe he only cost two 2nds

Isles had their backs to the wall, no money to pay him.

It still hurts us inside

 

[Chips]

Toews was a #5 in his late 20s on a team over the cap. A shrewd GM gets a pick when taking on a cap dump. Sakic gives up value and everyone calls him a hero.

Value for value is the definition of a trade lol


He was their number #5 because their depth is crazy and to an extent probably because his top assets didn’t stand out as much in their system, but he’s not a “#5 caliber”. He always had great advance numbers all along, looked great, and his points were lower because of his usage and them struggling to score a stretch, and their system not exactly being tailored to his game

2 second rounders are far from guarantee to get one legit NHL player let alone one of his caliber; they got a legit great top 4 guy who’s capable of playing top 2 minutes and performing well, as he did when Makar was out for a long time.

He’s got top pair metrics, *even top 10 in some*, this year with 50pt pace as well. He’s having a very underrated year, people aren’t overhyping him at all. If he had signed a one year deal he’d be getting a raise.

it was objectively a great great trade

 

[Nihiliste]

Why are there always butthurt fans in Avs threads rambling about how a player on their team is also good or better somehow than the Av being discussed?

This happens in all threads. Most people only watch their own teams and overrate their own players and prospects. Every fanbase is guilty

 

[Kuznetsnow]

Don’t you just get tired of hating on the avs? I’ve probably seen you in most all avs related threads, spitting out the same notion over and over. No matter how you put it, getting a young top pairing defensemen with term for a couple second round picks is great value. His underlined numbers were great and most people realized how this was a great fit the moment the trade was announced. I’m not sure why that’s so hard to accept.
Yeah Chara and co. are nice but most of them were FA signings and are all nowhere near as good as Toews this year. You also bring up Schmidt over and over but completely ignore the fact that he’s almost 3 years older and basically makes 6 million per season for the next 5 years. There’s also no way vegas trades an established player to the team that many consider to be their main rival, for the next few years.

I also find it pretty ironic how you, keep on taking jabs towards the second round exit, considering how the caps took forever to get past the second round, and trust me, those losses were a lot more ugly compared to how the avs lost last year. You do realize we were this close to beating the stars despite half of our players being injured and without our backup and starter right?
It also has nothing to do what so ever with Devon Toews so I’m not sure why you’re even bringing it up in the first place.

No I just get tired of Sakic being labeled a genius for overpaying for a guy his team had to shed for cap reasons during the Covid free agent season. HF went from hating Sakic to worshipping him as the greatest active GM even though his team hasn't actually accomplished anything noteworthy in that time span.

 

[S E P H]

Isles had their backs to the wall, no money to pay him.

It still hurts us inside

I understand that, but you can't debate that Mayfield or someone else that the Islanders decided to keep is better than Toews though.

 

[Chips]

No I just get tired of Sakic being labeled a genius for overpaying for a guy his team had to shed for cap reasons during the Covid free agent season. HF went from hating Sakic to worshipping him as the greatest active GM even though his team hasn't actually accomplished anything noteworthy in that time span.

The Avs are one of multiple teams using various and newer advance metrics on top of watching. Point being, I bet there were other teams trying to get him as well. Two second rounders isn’t even one guaranteed NHLer let alone a legit top 4 defenseman,

who’s legit playing like a top pair defenseman. He’s literally #2 in GSVA under Adam Fox, and well ahead at of Hedman and has been near the top all season; he always had excellent zone exit (essential for defenseman) among other metrics just generally showing his team with and without him. He’s the type of Dman who can regularly carry the puck far, join offense, join deeper in the zone and generally flow with forwards in an aggressive system.

People were already expecting him to step up before he played a game, and it’s paying off with more usage and a more appropriate system for his game that doesn’t stymie flow. He played heavy top pair minutes and kept his team alive missing key players including multiple top 4 Dmen without suffering performance drop.

normally you’d trade more than a couple 2nds for that value. It was a great pickup by a team that knows how to evaluate players who’d excel.

 

[flyfysher]

Yes, people here have the attention span of a goldfish and are looking to anoint Sakic King of GMs after uniformly dumping on him a couple years ago, even though the amount of times he's gone past the 2nd round of the playoffs remains the same.

I'm just pointing out that at the time the Toews trade stood out as a major overpayment in a super deprecated market whether it worked out or not.

Overpayment? LOL. Most knowledgeable hockey pundits and fans thought Sakic was extremely shrewd in acquiring Toews.

To acquire a top 4D, much less one capable of playing on the top pair, for two second rounders is nuts.

And yes, it has worked out as well.

 

[Nihiliste]

No I just get tired of Sakic being labeled a genius for overpaying for a guy his team had to shed for cap reasons during the Covid free agent season. HF went from hating Sakic to worshipping him as the greatest active GM even though his team hasn't actually accomplished anything noteworthy in that time span.

how do you know there were no other bidders? Or no other offers to dump cap that Lou could have taken?

 

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

Value for value is the definition of a trade lol


He was their number #5 because their depth is crazy and to an extent probably because his top assets didn’t stand out as much in their system, but he’s not a “#5 caliber”. He always had great advance numbers all along, looked great, and his points were lower because of his usage and them struggling to score a stretch, and their system not exactly being tailored to his game

2 second rounders are far from guarantee to get one legit NHL player let alone one of his caliber; they got a legit great top 4 guy who’s capable of playing top 2 minutes and performing well, as he did when Makar was out for a long time.

He’s got top pair metrics, *even top 10 in some*, this year with 50pt pace as well. He’s having a very underrated year, people aren’t overhyping him at all. If he had signed a one year deal he’d be getting a raise.

it was objectively a great great trade

Two second rounders for a #5 isn't good value. If Sakic paid a third rounder and got Lou to retain some salary its a good deal.

This was an overpayment.

 

[flyfysher]

Two second rounders for a #5 isn't good value. If Sakic paid a third rounder and got Lou to retain some salary its a good deal.

This was an overpayment.

Except it wasn’t for a #5 on the Avs. It wasn't an overpayment especially considering how costly it usually is to acquire a top 4D-man.

 

[Crossfire Hurricane]

Toews was a #5 in his late 20s on a team over the cap. A shrewd GM gets a pick when taking on a cap dump. Sakic gives up value and everyone calls him a hero.

Sakic took a team that had prospects like Mackinnon, Rantanen, Makar and now they've got... Sampo Ranta? I don't even know who that is. Alex Newhook and his 16 points this year? Matthew Boldy is on the same team and has 31 points. Bare cubbards and no picks is an awful combination and Sakic can't blame Greg Sherman for this one.

 

[SotasicA]

Good teams identify talent and get them to play for their team on a good deal. Buy low, sell high.

Bad teams wait for a career season by a player before getting interested and then offer a massive contract the player can never live up to. Sharks have to live with Erik Karlsson. The Sabres with Jeff Skinner.

 

[Chips]

Two second rounders for a #5 isn't good value. If Sakic paid a third rounder and got Lou to retain some salary its a good deal.

This was an overpayment.

He’s absolutely not a true #5 was my point, and the Avs knew it (and likely other teams as well)... at the very worst is a great second pair defenseman on a contender. The Avs are ahead of a lot of teams using newer and newer metrics to evaluate players, and or are better at it than many, and the metrics showed he played well above his position. **There were almost certainly other teams trying to get Toews. They wanted to make sure they got him (also, lots of teams are devaluing 2021 draft picks because of the world context impact on scouting and play time )

It was a gamble, but not that much of a gamble and was absolutely worth locking him up over other teams. Again, he’s played like a top pair defenseman this year and literally has been their top pair defenseman with and without Makar. He’s legitimately great for this team and would be for a lot of teams in a league where defenseman are routinely in high demand, with few available. Teams would pay way the hell more got Toews now which is why the Avs got him when they did.

Even if he only plays great for them for 4 years, if it’s top 4 and especially if he plays as well as he is this year, he was a much safer bet for value than any 2nd round pick could possible be. You don’t land gems every draft with every pick, and they would still likely take years as defensemen typically develops a lot slower towards their peak than forwards.

Makar, Girard and Toews are one of the very best top 3 defenseman groups for any team this season. They’re a huge reason for the Avs putting up absurd stats this past stretch and generally have been great all season.

Again, Toews has been huge when Makar was injured. His positive impact on his team measured in a variety of ways on their top pair approaching 25 minutes has been better than the overwhelming majority of dmen this season.

excellent trade


*Mind you, Trotz is a great coach, but he’s far from perfect especially at utilizing and evaluating young players.

fun fact: he routinely scratched an already very good but learning Nate Schmidt, who was solid all around and also had good metrics, for “will over skill (or effectiveness)”Tim freaking Gleason who was ass for the Caps.

Schmidt gets traded to the Knights and, well, you know.(edit: was left exposed, but all the same he was better than multiple of the Dmen they had and was scratched/3rd pair a ton of games)

 

[Olliemets]

I understand that, but you can't debate that Mayfield or someone else that the Islanders decided to keep is better than Toews though.

Mayfield has a different role, and he's locked up at a cheap price. In Leddy and Dobson they have other puck movers, Dobson basically replaced him.

Toews skating and skill level is obvious although he had some brain freezes in his own zone. But trust me. We Isles fans hated having to trade him away.

 

[PROMputt]

I understand that, but you can't debate that Mayfield or someone else that the Islanders decided to keep is better than Toews though.

Mayfield is making 1.45 mil over the next 2 seasons so in a cap world the Islanders have to keep him as he fills a 'team' need. Leddy is locked in at 5.5 for this and next year and not sure how tradable he is even though I feel he is one of the Isles best Dmen(other Isles fans may disagree). The player the Isles had to decide to keep over Toews is Pulock as youcan only afford under the cap either one or the other unless you can trade Ladd's contract which LL has not been able to do.

 

[Belgican]

Sakic took a team that had prospects like Mackinnon, Rantanen, Makar and now they've got... Sampo Ranta? I don't even know who that is. Alex Newhook and his 16 points this year? Matthew Boldy is on the same team and has 31 points. Bare cubbards and no picks is an awful combination and Sakic can't blame Greg Sherman for this one.

You must be joking about Newhook

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Mayfield has a different role, and he's locked up at a cheap price. In Leddy and Dobson they have other puck movers, Dobson basically replaced him.

Toews skating and skill level is obvious although he had some brain freezes in his own zone. But trust me. We Isles fans hated having to trade him away.

The bolded is what I heard a lot when the trade happened and caused me concern at the time.

Fortunately this issue hasn’t been near as frequent in Colorado. There’s been a couple, but he’s been more consistent than I anticipated.

 

[Chips]

The bolded is what I heard a lot when the trade happened and caused me concern at the time.

Fortunately this issue hasn’t been near as frequent in Colorado. There’s been a couple, but he’s been more consistent than I anticipated.

Could be a matter of team play style relative to the Dmans skill set, or just coming into his own still. Burakovsky is a forward example, majorly stepped up on his new team.

Nick Jensen is an example both between multiple teams, and with the same team under two coaches. He was better under Detroit and is better now with Laviollete as coach than he ever was under Reirden.

current system involving the D way more, and how they’re instructed to play suits his skating/handling ability.

 

[Arto Kilponen]

Two second rounders for a #5 isn't good value.

You oversimplify things. For example price of a trade is not two things. It is at least four, which of the two interesting ones to any GM are
1) What you get
2) What you give
Assuming your trading partner is a fierce rival (say, Vegas for Colorado or Rangers for Islanders) you'll get interested in two more things
3) What they get
4) What they lost

It sounds like #1 and #4 as well as #2 and #3 are the same things. And this is where you get this wrong. Yes, Islanders gave away a #5 d-man but Avalanche got a #1 (measured by ice-time) d-man. It doesn't matter to Avalanche what Islanders gave, at least not before they face each other in the Stanley Cup Finals.