Confirmed with Link: Devils waive Cory Schneider

[MadDevil]

The easy conclusion is Schneider is one of the worst stick handling goalies. The Devils are lucky if he doesn’t score on himself. Furthermore, he isn’t mobile. When you combine the two, it makes it harder to break out of the zone and drive up the ice.

So why then did they score .37 more goals per game for Kevin Weekes than Marty in 2007-08? Or .24 more goals per game for Hedberg than Marty in 2010-11? Or .34 more goals per game for Hedberg than Marty the following season?

 

[guitarguyvic]

So why then did they score .37 more goals per game for Kevin Weekes than Marty in 2007-08? Or .24 more goals per game for Hedberg than Marty in 2010-11? Or .34 more goals per game for Hedberg than Marty the following season?

Marty played like 70 games per season versus like 10 played by the backup, and those few games the backups did play were almost certainly against inferior competition. Too small of a sample to make any conclusion whatsoever. That’s not at all the same as the six seasons worth of data we have involving Cory and the two other goalies who played a large portion of the games in that time span.

 

[markog]

And the Rangers got a 7-overall in the Raanta deal in 2017 (Stepan was no throw-in, but the fact is Raanta's perceived value as a 20something potential-starter whose track record to that point was just backup duty and playoff relief appearances was a huge component of a deal for a 7OA).

Raanta and Stepan for Lias Andersson

 

[glenwo2]

Congratulations to the guy who is arguing that Cory's career wasn't as good as Brodeur's. Literally everyone in the world knows that.



Relax. Don't get triggered by message board hypotheticals.

Well that's one hypothetical that was very extreme, NSP.

 

[BurntToast]

So why then did they score .37 more goals per game for Kevin Weekes than Marty in 2007-08? Or .24 more goals per game for Hedberg than Marty in 2010-11? Or .34 more goals per game for Hedberg than Marty the following season?

Weeks and Hedberg were great backups goaltenders who were able to fill in as a starters. Hedberg to my knowledge was a pretty good at stick handling. He loved to poke check. I honestly don’t remember much about Weeks.

 

[MadDevil]

Marty played like 70 games per season versus like 10 played by the backup, and those few games the backups did play were almost certainly against inferior competition. Too small of a sample to make any conclusion whatsoever. That’s not at all the same as the six seasons worth of data we have involving Cory and the two other goalies who played a large portion of the games in that time span.

So how do you explain the team scoring more for Clemmensen in 40 games in 2008-09? Or Hedberg in 34 games in 2010-11? Or Hedberg in 27 games in 2011-12? Are those sample sizes also too small?

It seems awfully convenient to throw out the multiple seasons where the team scored more for Marty's backup than him, yet hold the seasons where the team scored less for Cory than his backup against him. It's almost like you're crafting a narrative or something.

 

[TBF1972]

The easy conclusion is Schneider is one of the worst stick handling goalies. The Devils are lucky if he doesn’t score on himself. Furthermore, he isn’t mobile. When you combine the two, it makes it harder to break out of the zone and drive up the ice.

I would have also liked him to skate the puck out of the D Zone.

 

[Azathoth]

This thread is something else

 

[guitarguyvic]

So how do you explain the team scoring more for Clemmensen in 40 games in 2008-09? Or Hedberg in 34 games in 2010-11? Or Hedberg in 27 games in 2011-12? Are those sample sizes also too small?

It seems awfully convenient to throw out the multiple seasons where the team scored more for Marty's backup than him, yet hold the seasons where the team scored less for Cory than his backup against him. It's almost like you're crafting a narrative or something.

Do you have the exact numbers?
I’m not the one who pulled those numbers so I honestly had no idea if that’s the case. The only numbers I pulled were the GF ranking versus standings comparison.

 

[awegrzyn]

The same pattern? No, you pretended you saw the same pattern, and then made up a narrative around that. Brodeur got an average offense, Schneider got the 29th ranked offense. Here's what happened the next 5 seasons:

2015: Schneider GF 2.01 Kinkaid GF 2.45
2016: Schneider GF 2.07 Kinkaid GF 2.22
2017: Schneider GF 2.09 Kinkaid GF 2.28
2018: Schneider GF 2.83 Kinkaid GF 3.06
2019: Schneider GF 2.4 Kinkaid 2.8

no - I think Kinkaid was started against weaker teams generally.

You guys could actually go and verify your theories. Just get the ranking of the team each goalie played AT THAT TIME. Average it out for the year per goalie, and see if percentage wise the ranking spread is relative to GF percentage spread between goalies. But it seems that has to be the case, unless there is something psychological going on, which I doubt.

You can also go crazy, and measure the rankings, offensive rankings, all kinds of quality of opposition metrics, and see if there is something that overlaps with GF.

To the guy that says the goalies split the season. They did, but it does not mean they split the quality of opposition.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Somebody needs to create a “Leave Cory (Brittney) Alone” meme.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Interpret this however you wish.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Interpret this however you wish.

I interpret it as a lie or a damned lie, because it's not a statistic.

 

[Azathoth]

Does this sum it up?

 

[Whaddagoal]

@Azathoth, I think that sums up the arguments here. You just need to add some extra more slides on the faction that thought Cory was never elite, and we lost the trade. That will complete this thread.

 

[TBF1972]

Does this sum it up?

If Cory could drive play like Ftorek can throw benches ...

 

[TrufleShufle]

Does this sum it up?

This is how the convo should be going.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Does this sum it up?

Oh, and, was that a deliberate misspelling of Cory?

This board is awesome.

 

[Azathoth]

Oh, and, was that a deliberate misspelling of Cory?

This board is awesome.

No just a derp on my part

 

[Whaddagoal]

No just a derp on my part

Was checking as we've had argumemts over that too, in past, so nice unintentional touch. Lol.

 

[Davegarri]

Where's Lil y gonna live now? Is he just gonna take Cory's spot as man of the house now and live with his wife and kids while Cory is in Binghamton? lol

 

[FooteBahl]

Where's Lil ****y gonna live now? Is he just gonna take Cory's spot as man of the house now and live with his wife and kids while Cory is in Binghamton? lol

He’s gonna get first line minutes in the Schneider household when Cory is away...if you catch my drift.

 

[Triumph]

The 21, 23, and 26 ranked GF in a 30 team league is "average offense"?????? I don't even know how to respond to that.

I was referring specifically to 2014 in that post. But on the whole of Brodeur's career, it's also true.

Kinkaid played half the games in 2018 and 2019...how on Earth could you conclude that it's a result of quality of opposition? He and Cory essentially split the season!

Think about 2018 and 2019 for a second. Think about how those seasons went. Think about how Cory got most of his starts in the beginning of the year in 2018 - Cory played 35 games pre All-Star game, 5 post, Kinkaid played 14 pre and 27 post. Think about how Taylor Hall went off post All-Star Game - about how he had 48 points in 43 games pre All-Star Game, 45 in 33 post.

Pre All Star Game in 2017-18, the Devils scored 2.88 goals per 60. Post All-Star Game, they scored 2.98 goals/60. They had a slightly better lineup when they added Maroon and Grabner plus Travis Zajac returned from injury and had a solid 2nd half.

2019 is even more stark because of how that season went - Cory barely played at the beginning. Schneider shared 8 whole games with Taylor Hall, 2 of which were relief appearances. He was also atrocious so he didn't deserve more games in the beginning of the season, but he managed only 6 starts with Hall in the lineup. Blackwood got 1 start with Hall. So that means Keith Kinkaid started 26 games with Taylor Hall, and only played 15 without him.

Pre Hall GF/60: 2.88
Post Hall GF/60: 2.41

Sometimes the solution is just actually thinking about how the teams were constituted when the particular goalies played.

 

[guitarguyvic]

I was referring specifically to 2014 in that post. But on the whole of Brodeur's career, it's also true.



Think about 2018 and 2019 for a second. Think about how those seasons went. Think about how Cory got most of his starts in the beginning of the year in 2018 - Cory played 35 games pre All-Star game, 5 post, Kinkaid played 14 pre and 27 post. Think about how Taylor Hall went off post All-Star Game - about how he had 48 points in 43 games pre All-Star Game, 45 in 33 post.

Pre All Star Game in 2017-18, the Devils scored 2.88 goals per 60. Post All-Star Game, they scored 2.98 goals/60. They had a slightly better lineup when they added Maroon and Grabner plus Travis Zajac returned from injury and had a solid 2nd half.

2019 is even more stark because of how that season went - Cory barely played at the beginning. Schneider shared 8 whole games with Taylor Hall, 2 of which were relief appearances. He was also atrocious so he didn't deserve more games in the beginning of the season, but he managed only 6 starts with Hall in the lineup. Blackwood got 1 start with Hall. So that means Keith Kinkaid started 26 games with Taylor Hall, and only played 15 without him.

Pre Hall GF/60: 2.88
Post Hall GF/60: 2.41

Sometimes the solution is just actually thinking about how the teams were constituted when the particular goalies played.

So just more luck and randomness? Cory is the "unluckiest" athlete I've ever heard of...seriously. A streak of bad luck spanning 6 years.

 

[Triumph]

So just more luck and randomness? Cory is the "unluckiest" athlete I've ever heard of...seriously. A streak of bad luck spanning 6 years.

2019 is so obviously not randomness was the point of that post. I'm not sure how you read that post and came away with the idea that I was ascribing it to luck. I am ascribing it to the fact that one guy played a lot when the Devils' best skater was in the lineup and the other guy did not. 2018 is closer to luck, but wasn't exactly, either, I don't think.

It's a combination of 3 things, IMO - and I haven't checked on MadDevil's accounting but I assume it is correct.

A: Strength of schedule - Kinkaid is more likely to be facing weaker teams.

B: Minor score effects - I think being scored on makes it slightly more likely that your own team will score - Kinkaid/Brodeur were appreciably worse than Schneider over the duration(s) in question

B2: Minor survivorship bias - since Natural Stat Trick is counting empty net goals, it means the rich get richer - a team scoring more goals is more likely to have won and is thus more likely to have scored an empty net goal

C: Luck, whether that's guys playing harder for another goalie or pucks going in at the other end or whatever.

I agree it's weird that in no year has Schneider's GF/60 beaten his backup's - I just cannot ascribe that to the goaltender.