Coronavirus

[Ted Hoffman]

The virus isn't that big of a deal. Yeah, it might kill a few million, but it's not the virus that will "kill" us. Its the economic contagion that will follow it.

China has been quarantined and they haven't been working for almost 2 months now. This means no more new shipments of stuff into your respective countries. It takes about 6 weeks for shipments to arrive, so at the moment, we are just receiving our last shipments and there will be no more after this.

There is a reason why the DOW dropped the most points ever other than right before the Great Depression. The markets are finally clueing in that this is pretty big and shops have closed up. Oil is at a low point as well.

Even if you don't buy in to the hysteria, you have to be concerned at the very least about the actions other countries are doing. You can say that its "mass hysteria" now when it barely has even hit us here in NA. Ignore what they are saying, look at what they're doing.

You're kind of making my point for me, though. The mass hysteria is leading to economic contagion. People are freaking out over what's still a low-probability event and taking dramatic measures in response, on fear of it might be teh fatal! Meanwhile, you're more likely to die from a fall, a motor vehicle accident, other influenza/pneumonia that's non-coronavirus, or even homicide (of which most cases are "the victim and the assailant know each other), or potentially other causes if the "non-vulnerable" mortality rate falls short of 2%.

I'm not concerned about ZOMG, I MIGHT GET CORONAVIRUS! I'm concerned that people act irrationally and make dumb decisions like the night Johnny Carson made a joke about there being a toilet paper shortage and people flooded supermarkets the next day buying up all the toilet paper they could, causing an actual shortage for days. You know, kind of like what we're seeing already.

 

[Hyzer]

You're kind of making my point for me, though. The mass hysteria is leading to economic contagion. People are freaking out over what's still a low-probability event and taking dramatic measures in response, on fear of it might be teh fatal! Meanwhile, you're more likely to die from a fall, a motor vehicle accident, other influenza/pneumonia that's non-coronavirus, or even homicide (of which most cases are "the victim and the assailant know each other), or potentially other causes if the "non-vulnerable" mortality rate falls short of 2%.

I'm not concerned about ZOMG, I MIGHT GET CORONAVIRUS! I'm concerned that people act irrationally and make dumb decisions like the night Johnny Carson made a joke about there being a toilet paper shortage and people flooded supermarkets the next day buying up all the toilet paper they could, causing an actual shortage for days. You know, kind of like what we're seeing already.

I don't think you see the entire picture. With how easily it spreads and how virulent it is for something that spreads that fast, it would quickly overwhelm the healthcare system. Do you think its by chance China has been building thousands of hospital beds in days to house and quarantine active cases?

For a second, ignore the deaths. Straight up ignore them and focus on the severe cases. The latest study I've read is about 19% of people who get the virus have serious cases which require hospitalization (and out of those, 2% die). Doesn't sound so bad right? Yeah, it actually doesn't seem so bad. Similar to the flu. But that's now what the scary part is.

In my entire city, we have roughly 2,000 hospital beds, give or take. If 3,000 people get the virus within my city, and 20% of them require hospitalization for severe symptoms, that's 600 people. My city cannot handle that many acute cases. Our hospitals are already full right now. Imagine something like this that would require a quarantine, or they will just spread it to everyone else in the hospital with weakened immune systems and help kill them too?

Nothing of this magnitude has been around in the modern era and it's foolish to downplay it

 

[Bandit]

If this has taught me one thing it's that the people controlling the stock market need some serious medication.

Monday: Dow soars because reasons
Tuesday: Worst drop in 1,000 years because of rekindled fear of Coronavirus
Wednesday: Stocks rebound because dudes that were freaking out yesterday smoked a joint today
Thursday: Oh no everything's tanking again...
Friday: Worst downturn ever, try not to kill yourself before Monday.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

 

[Ainec]

If this has taught me one thing it's that the people controlling the stock market need some serious medication.

Monday: Dow soars because reasons
Tuesday: Worst drop in 1,000 years because of rekindled fear of Coronavirus
Wednesday: Stocks rebound because dudes that were freaking out yesterday smoked a joint today
Thursday: Oh no everything's tanking again...
Friday: Worst downturn ever, try not to kill yourself before Monday.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

It's gona rebound on monday lol

 

[Hyzer]

If this has taught me one thing it's that the people controlling the stock market need some serious medication.

Monday: Dow soars because reasons
Tuesday: Worst drop in 1,000 years because of rekindled fear of Coronavirus
Wednesday: Stocks rebound because dudes that were freaking out yesterday smoked a joint today
Thursday: Oh no everything's tanking again...
Friday: Worst downturn ever, try not to kill yourself before Monday.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

The stock market does not reflect reality. How can the Dow go up at the last 15 minutes on Friday before close. It makes no sense at all, literally 0. Absolutely ridiculous

 

[Bandit]

The stock market does not reflect reality. How can the Dow go up at the last 15 minutes on Friday before close. It makes no sense at all, literally 0. Absolutely ridiculous

Totally. It’s like when the Exxon Valdez spill happened and 15 minutes later the price of gas at the pump went up a dollar. Just total nonsense.

 

[Krauser]

. People are freaking out over what's still a low-probability event and taking dramatic measures in response, on fear of it might be teh fatal! Meanwhile, you're more likely to die from a fall, a motor vehicle accident, other influenza/pneumonia that's non-coronavirus, or even homicide (of which most cases are "the victim and the assailant know each other), or potentially other causes if the "non-vulnerable" mortality rate falls short of 2%.

Being exposed to the coronavirus is a high-probability event, if it continues to spread.

Containment efforts so far have not been successful. There are now at least 3 community-acquired cases in the northwestern US (northern CA, OR, WA), and one death. Given the incubation period (up to 2 weeks) and the fact that these diagnoses were made just recently, presumably those cases are the tip of an iceberg of exposure/infection in those areas, which will start to come into view over the next week or two. If there are today multiple people with coronavirus in the US who have yet to be diagnosed, and the virus is as easily spread as it seems to be, there will be no way to contain it in North America short of travel restrictions and quarantines.

The resulting illness from exposure to this coronavirus is an unknown probability event for a given person. Many people are asymptomatic or have mild-to moderate symptoms. The risk of more severe disease or death is higher in elderly people and people who are more vulnerable, but many middle-aged or younger adults and children have also become seriously ill, and some have died. While it is no doubt better to be younger and healthier, people with those advantages are not guaranteed to do well.

Death is not the only serious result of viral pneumonia. While "only" 2-3% of those with documented Covid-19 infections have died, the total who have required hospital care before recovering is closer to 20%. That's a huge, huge number for an infection that may eventually spread through roughly half the population, as has been estimated by epidemiologists. There is no way for the North American health care system to cope with that many sick people.

If the virus continues to spread, and remains as dangerous as it has been so far, the health care system will require public health measures to try to limit the number of cases in order not to be overwhelmed. That may include population control measures such as quarantine.

While some individuals may not think it is necessary to take extraordinary precautions to protect themselves from coronavirus infection (if they are young and healthy enough that they expect to survive), the health care system will be overwhelmed if the virus spreads quickly through the population. And obviously, more people with pneumonia will die if the medical system is unable to care for the number of people who get seriously ill, which will in turn drive the death rate up. Anyone who doesn't follow public health guidelines (such as quarantine, if it comes to that) and thereby spreads the virus will be responsible for the illness and death of others who become infected if more of the population is exposed.

If the NHL cancels games this year, or plays them in closed arenas without crowds in attendance, that will not be hysteria, or any kind of overreaction. Those measures are necessary to save lives in the society as a whole. There is no way to have society function normally if 20% of those exposed require hospitalization, 2% die, and the virus is easily spread through people who don't even realize they have it.

Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal doesn't know what they're talking about. Each of us personally has a much higher chance of dying this year from coronavirus than we do from a fall, accident, homicide or other viral infection, or from all of those causes combined.

I'm a doctor, and I don't say that lightly.

 

[GindyDraws]

The stock market does not reflect reality. How can the Dow go up at the last 15 minutes on Friday before close. It makes no sense at all, literally 0. Absolutely ridiculous

Hell, the GDP goes up even during times of disasters. Don't use the stock market as a measure of reality.

 

[DearDiary]

The stock market does not reflect reality. How can the Dow go up at the last 15 minutes on Friday before close. It makes no sense at all, literally 0. Absolutely ridiculous

Because people are shorting the market. It would be more accurate to say that money was temporarily moved rather than lost

If you looked at the video's at the NYSE everyone was cheering.

 

[Albatros]

Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal doesn't know what they're talking about. Each of us personally has a much higher chance of dying this year from coronavirus than we do from a fall, accident, homicide or other viral infection, or from all of those causes combined.

In the United States there are some 40 million people aged 25-34, in this age group some 20,000 people die as a result of unintentional injuries every year. According to current estimates, the corresponding COVID-19 mortality rate is 0.2 percent. This would mean that one in four would have to get ill before the end of the year in order to reach the number of unintentional injury fatalities alone. Add the other causes and it's one in three. To be much higher at least every other person would have to get ill and the mortality would have to resemble China.

 

[Krauser]

To be much higher at least every other person would have to get ill

One expert estimate was that 40-70% of the population will be infected.

Extraordinary measures such as quarantines may be required to keep the infection rate much lower than that. Ironically, given our discussion, quarantines would also serve to lower the rate of death from accidents.

Unfortunately, the case fatality rate reported so far for Covid-19 may underestimate what happens if medical services become overwhelmed. The only area dealing with that kind of worst case scenario so far is Wuhan, and I’m not sure the numbers they’re releasing are reliable.

If the pandemic is contained, that will be a credit to the precautions which in this thread are being dismissed as hysteria.

I don’t get worried about much, but I am genuinely concerned for how this is going to play out. If the worst that comes of it is the equivalent of a bad flu season, at the cost of canceling public activities for a month, we should consider ourselves lucky.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal doesn't know what they're talking about. Each of us personally has a much higher chance of dying this year from coronavirus than we do from a fall, accident, homicide or other viral infection, or from all of those causes combined.

I'm a doctor, and I don't say that lightly.

On that count you're expecting over 150k people to die from this in the next 10 months in the U.S. What's your guess for a number then?

 

[someguy44]

Check this out and you'll see why CONVID-19 (what a stupid name) is so dangerous compared to all the other diseases we've experienced in our lifetimes (unless you were around for the Spanish Flu):

Source:

It's the last statement that's most concerning. Out of 600 people who showed no symptoms of this virus, 70% of them tested positive for it. This is why testing is essential even if you have no symptoms. The virus can hide in your for a while (up to 27 days in rare occasions) before striking or it can just hide in you and never strike. But, the part that's concerning is that asymptomatic people may still be able to spread this. With sick people, we know to avoid them. How do you avoid someone who doesn't seem sick at all?

Because of this, an outbreak is pretty much guaranteed to happen in N.America. Prepare people. It's not a matter of if, but when. I hope I and many others are completely wrong. Then again, so far, only Iran, Italy and S. Korea hasn't gotten out of control when it comes to this. Maybe there's a slim slim chance we can delay this and the summer will kill it? It's not exploding in Singapore or Thailand so there's hope? This is just wishful/hopeful thinking in my part.

 

[Krauser]

On that count you're expecting over 150k people to die from this in the next 10 months in the U.S. What's your guess for a number then?

I don't have a specific guess. It's going to be significant. There's a realistic risk it will be terrible.

Italy's outbreak seems like a useful case study, a comparably wealthy country with modern sanitation, transportation and health care. You can read the details here: 2020 coronavirus outbreak in Italy - Wikipedia

Their first community acquired case of Covid-19 in Italy was diagnosed in the Lombardy region. The patient had presumably been exposed on Jan 21, when he met a friend who had recently returned from China. But he felt well until Feb 14 (24 days later) and didn't require hospitalization until Feb 16, for pneumonia. By that time, he had been in contact with a large number of people, many of whom later tested positive.

It took until Feb 21 for the next set of community acquired cases in Lombardy to be recognized -- a month after the index patient's initial exposure, and a week after he started to feel ill. As of February 27, there were 403 confirmed cases in Lombardy, with 15 deaths (all older patients), 37 recoveries, and numerous hospitalizations.

In Italy as a whole, the overall picture as of February 29 is 1,128 cases, 29 deaths and 46 recoveries. Even if there are zero additional deaths, and the 1000+ currently unresolved cases recover completely, the case fatality rate will be nearly 3%.

Italy had already declared a state of emergency on January 31, when their first 2 cases were repatriated. With the outbreak in Northern Italy, many daily activities have been curtailed, and several towns have been quarantined. Serie A soccer games (the closest analogy to NHL games in that country) have been postponed, including in Milan and Turin.

Despite those measures, the number of cases in Italy continues to rise:

Note that this is less than 2 weeks since the first community acquired case was hospitalized, and barely a week since the cluster of subsequent transmission started to come into view.

...

Compare that now to what we know has happened in the US to date:

The cluster of cases starting to be recognized in the northwest US seems to have started a little later. Exposures probably happened as cases were repatriated from China, from Jan 28 to Feb 7. See here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...-coronavirus-evacuees-hhs-whistleblower-says/

The first community acquired case was hospitalized on February 15. The diagnosis was made only on Feb 23, after her condition worsened and she was transferred to a bigger hospital.

The US even today has yet to start testing widely for coronavirus. Only patients with a documented history of travel to endemic areas have been tested, and even then only if they were thought to meet criteria which arguably have been too narrow. Under 1000 tests have been done by the CDC for Covid-19 in total (contrast that with thousands per day being done in Italy and South Korea). This has very likely led to a delay in the recognition of the spread of the disease.

Just a few hours after I wrote above that the community acquired cases found this week in the US were likely the tip of the iceberg that would come into view soon, a suspected outbreak was announced in a nursing home in Washington state: First Covid-19 outbreak in a U.S. nursing home raises concerns

Two cases in that nursing home have been confirmed -- one staff member, and one elderly resident -- and there is an indication that the outbreak may be much larger, with 50+ residents and staff (out of a total of less than 300) symptomatic, but yet to be tested. If a dozen or more nursing home attendants and special care aides have been coming and going from work at that nursing home during an incubation period of 2 weeks or more, the possibility for very widespread exposure is very high.

The American timeline in Washington state is about a week behind the Italian experience in Lombardy, if the nursing home staff do in fact test positive. On that timeline, one could expect several hundred cases to be diagnosed within the next week or so, with restrictions and quarantines placed soon after.

The outbreak has started in Kirkland, part of the greater Seattle metropolitan area. If Seattle already had their NHL franchise, there would be a real risk that games would be postponed within the next week or so. I would be quite concerned that the Mariners' home opener will not go ahead as scheduled on March 26.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

There's some holes in there though. For one, cases without highly severe symptoms are always the wild card. They go unnoticed and thus aren't ever going to factor into a simple statistic. A serious study of fatality rates will need to dig much deeper and I believe 1-2% was the number the Chinese could come up with on that basis - though again there's always going to be an element of speculation with this type of disease where symptoms can vary so dramatically.

Up until just about this weekend patients with flu-like symptoms would not have been tested for Covid-19 unless an obvious link to China. Consider that we're at the heart of influenza season. If you went to the doctor last week with flu-like symptoms and hadn't been to China or South Korea or Italy..you'd just be another flu case. If you just felt 'under the weather', had a sore throat, got chills, but it passed after a while, you likely didn't think much about it, may not even have told anyone..and yet we've seen Covid-19 articulate itself exactly like that in some patients.

I suspect that once you start testing everyone with a severe 'cold' or suspected flu for Covid-19 the numbers will spike quickly. I also suspect that once people suspect Covid-19 to be around in their community, they are more likely to seek medical attention with flu-like symptoms than before.

It would not shock me at all if Covid-19 was already quite widespread on the West Coast (where contacts with China and South Korea are intense and frequent) and there's already big pockets of infection in major cities on the East Coast as well (again, a lot of business travel to East Asia). All it takes is a few visitors or people coming home with very mild symptoms and no-one will ever be the wiser when the cases start popping up due to increased testing for it.

When it comes to fatality numbers, we need to consider that this won't exist in a vacuum. It will likely 'steal' fatalities from other causes. People ripe for the picking will drop who without Covid-19 may have died from either their primary disease or another secondary cause like the flu. There will, just like with the flu, be 'unlucky' fatalities for sure with people dying who you would not consider at risk.

I think so far we have seen Covid-19 follow the pattern of a very active flu virus, but not the Spanish Flu of 1918 which mowed down young folks all over the world at astonishing rates, instead a more typical flu picking on vulnerable populations, while remaining mild enough in most cases to allow broad distribution. An illness like that is near impossible to contain, but may also only produce mild to moderate excess morbidity.

If the ship on containment has sailed, one has to wonder just what 'measures' make sense. Good hygiene habits, avoidance of physical contact and close proximity especially with strangers seem like the best course of action. But if you get to the point where you destroy the economy, then the cure could be worse than the disease. It's a sensitive issue - especially given that any of us could be affected - but the truth is that economic suffering can also destroy people. One needs to be sensible about it.

 

[Krauser]

That’s fair enough.

Still, there’s quite a gap between 1918 redux and “it’s all hysteria”. Improvements in public health and general living conditions alone should keep Covid-19 under better control than the Spanish flu. But there’s a good chance that public health considerations will require limiting large gatherings such as NHL games, at least temporarily or regionally at different times.

South Korea is testing very widely, so will presumably be able to identify the a- and minimally symptomatic cases. So far they’re reporting 17 deaths and 30 recovered cases, with nearly 3400 cases ongoing and unresolved (the case fatality rate so far will be an underestimate, as most of those infections have only very recently been diagnosed, and it can take time for the infection to be fatal).

And again, death rates are nowhere near the full story. The worst hit area in South Korea, near Daegu (a city comparable in size to Vancouver) has 2569 confirmed cases of which 898 patients are in hospital — a hospitalization rate of well over 30%. That number probably skews older and sicker, but 30% is still a huge number.

I don’t think most NHL fans would willing to attend a hockey game if it meant they ran a substantial risk of developing pneumonia and being hospitalized.

 

[someguy44]

Well, there's a little light at the end of the tunnel.



Let's hope they succeed and a vaccine can be developed in months, not next year or years. This means, we must delay this thing. Delay will buy us, them, and all other groups trying to develop a working vaccine some time.

 

[Arkadiusz]

There's some holes in there though. For one, cases without highly severe symptoms are always the wild card. They go unnoticed and thus aren't ever going to factor into a simple statistic. A serious study of fatality rates will need to dig much deeper and I believe 1-2% was the number the Chinese could come up with on that basis - though again there's always going to be an element of speculation with this type of disease where symptoms can vary so dramatically.

Up until just about this weekend patients with flu-like symptoms would not have been tested for Covid-19 unless an obvious link to China. Consider that we're at the heart of influenza season. If you went to the doctor last week with flu-like symptoms and hadn't been to China or South Korea or Italy..you'd just be another flu case. If you just felt 'under the weather', had a sore throat, got chills, but it passed after a while, you likely didn't think much about it, may not even have told anyone..and yet we've seen Covid-19 articulate itself exactly like that in some patients.

I suspect that once you start testing everyone with a severe 'cold' or suspected flu for Covid-19 the numbers will spike quickly. I also suspect that once people suspect Covid-19 to be around in their community, they are more likely to seek medical attention with flu-like symptoms than before.

It would not shock me at all if Covid-19 was already quite widespread on the West Coast (where contacts with China and South Korea are intense and frequent) and there's already big pockets of infection in major cities on the East Coast as well (again, a lot of business travel to East Asia). All it takes is a few visitors or people coming home with very mild symptoms and no-one will ever be the wiser when the cases start popping up due to increased testing for it.

When it comes to fatality numbers, we need to consider that this won't exist in a vacuum. It will likely 'steal' fatalities from other causes. People ripe for the picking will drop who without Covid-19 may have died from either their primary disease or another secondary cause like the flu. There will, just like with the flu, be 'unlucky' fatalities for sure with people dying who you would not consider at risk.

I think so far we have seen Covid-19 follow the pattern of a very active flu virus, but not the Spanish Flu of 1918 which mowed down young folks all over the world at astonishing rates, instead a more typical flu picking on vulnerable populations, while remaining mild enough in most cases to allow broad distribution. An illness like that is near impossible to contain, but may also only produce mild to moderate excess morbidity.

If the ship on containment has sailed, one has to wonder just what 'measures' make sense. Good hygiene habits, avoidance of physical contact and close proximity especially with strangers seem like the best course of action. But if you get to the point where you destroy the economy, then the cure could be worse than the disease. It's a sensitive issue - especially given that any of us could be affected - but the truth is that economic suffering can also destroy people. One needs to be sensible about it.

I believe this is spot on. Covid-19 and Influenza strains A/B cause the exact same symptoms, the only way to tell them apart is a reliable quick assay. We have one for the flu that gives results within 1-2 hours. Without such a test for Covid-19 we are in the dark with regards to actual prevalence. It would not surprise me if there are people attending NHL games tonight with flu like symptoms, shedding the Covid-19 virus and without a reliable, widely available test we cannot know for sure until one of them becomes extremely ill and triggers the cumbersome CDC testing system...

 

[Albatros]

Let's hope they succeed and a vaccine can be developed in months, not next year or years. This means, we must delay this thing. Delay will buy us, them, and all other groups trying to develop a working vaccine some time.

Sure it can be developed in months, just skip the trials.

 

[someguy44]

Sure it can be developed in months, just skip the trials.

Did you even watch the video? That's what they're basically doing... trials. That's why they said weeks to months. The "vaccine" was already in development for SARS, ZIKA, Ebola, etc.. They're hoping this works for Convid 19. Need to watch the video.

 

[Ernie]

It's easy to say that this will kill relatively few people. Many people (up to 20%) will be very sick and health facilities will be overwhelmed.

One way or another, the economic hit is going to come. The question is whether it's better to take that hit up front trying to limit the spread of the disease or to let it develop over time. At this point if we make attempts to limit non-essential public gatherings we may be able to seriously slow the spread so our health systems can keep up.

 

[Albatros]

Did you even watch the video? That's what they're basically doing... trials. That's why they said weeks to months. The "vaccine" was already in development for SARS, ZIKA, Ebola, etc.. They're hoping this works for Convid 19. Need to watch the video.

You can not conduct proper clinical trials in weeks or a couple of months, shortcuts in the process are away from safety.

 

[someguy44]

You can not conduct proper clinical trials in weeks or a couple of months, shortcuts in the process are away from safety.

Again, did you even watch the video? This is a vaccine that has been in the works for years, not weeks or months. They've tested this on humans with Zika, Ebola, SARs, etc... and stated that it works with added dosage for all of them. The Dr said that SARS is this disease's little brother and because they're so similar and that the drug worked on it and other diseases, they're hoping this works on Convid 19. That's why they're going to China to do trials

Instead of just posting pessmistic comments for pessimistic's sake, please actually watch the video and then comment. In the end, it doesn't matter what you or I think or say, it only matters if this works. I think weeks might be too early, but months might be plausible. Then again, like I said, it doesn't matter what you or I think or say cause we're not the experts.


Edit - whether or not this is a "shortcut" like you say is debatable because of what I stated above. Also, the Americans came up with a "cure" that also requires months due to a new method that would basically make the person to to create antibodies themselves against this virus Is this a shortcut to you as well? It's more of a breakthrough if it works Not everything has to be done the traditional way where it takes years or over a year to come up with a vaccine.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Check this out and you'll see why CONVID-19 (what a stupid name) is so dangerous compared to all the other diseases we've experienced in our lifetimes (unless you were around for the Spanish Flu):

Source:
View attachment 329253

It's the last statement that's most concerning. Out of 600 people who showed no symptoms of this virus, 70% of them tested positive for it. This is why testing is essential even if you have no symptoms. The virus can hide in your for a while (up to 27 days in rare occasions) before striking or it can just hide in you and never strike. But, the part that's concerning is that asymptomatic people may still be able to spread this. With sick people, we know to avoid them. How do you avoid someone who doesn't seem sick at all?

Because of this, an outbreak is pretty much guaranteed to happen in N.America. Prepare people. It's not a matter of if, but when. I hope I and many others are completely wrong. Then again, so far, only Iran, Italy and S. Korea hasn't gotten out of control when it comes to this. Maybe there's a slim slim chance we can delay this and the summer will kill it? It's not exploding in Singapore or Thailand so there's hope? This is just wishful/hopeful thinking in my part.

I thought the name was COVID-19?

 

[BruinsBtn]

We're less than a month away from NHL games being cancelled. If there's an outbreak in an NHL city, games will be one of the first things halted.