We would need reliable data to say how effective the eventual actions have been, currently China claims that the situation is improving and yet outside Wuhan the controls are only getting tighter. That includes more extreme censorship and other repressive measures of population control. Ordinary workers around the country are being sent back to work while the elites are cancelling their most important events. Presumably the situation is so hopeless that isolating Beijing is now the last line of defense.
Coronavirus
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Here’s an interesting paper that models the transmission of the virus and its outcomes based on the data from Wuhan before widespread quarantines were put in place: 2019-nCoV: preliminary estimates of the confirmed-case-fatality-ratio and infection-fatality-ratio, and initial pandemic risk assessment
The new coronavirus is contagious. The R0 is likely 2.5-2.9, meaning each person infected with it infects on average 2-3 more people, and the total number of people infected can double every 6-7 days (and therefore, increase 10-fold in a little over 3 weeks, 100-fold in 6 weeks, 1000-fold in 9 weeks, etc, without steps being taken to stop transmission).
That fits with the quick escalation in case numbers in Wuhan, Lombardy (Italy) and Daegu (South Korea), and no doubt also northern Iran if there was more data available there.
The coronavirus is much more dangerous and more often fatal than influenza. The analysis here includes asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic infections that didn’t present to medical attention as cases, distinguishing the infection fatality ratio from the case fatality ratio, and recognizes that both will vary depending on the availability of medical care (lots of ICU beds would lower both numbers). The analysis also accounts for cases being more likely fatal in certain populations (the elderly), and models the lag time for confirmed cases to be fatal, estimating the time it takes to die of the infection, or to recover.
The case fatality ratio has been widely discussed at 2-3%, but this analysis places the infection fatality ratio lower (as it should be, the difference being the asymptomatic infections that aren’t “cases” coming to medical attention): a little under 1% (0.94%, range of the estimate = 0.37 to 2.95%).
Here’s the key paragraph:
“To estimate the overall infection-fatality-ratio (IFR), we turn to modeling to infer the total infection count and thus the true denominator. Alongside 761 confirmed cases in Wuhan as of January 25, Wu et al estimated that 75815 (37304, 130330) cumulative infections had occured in Wuhan through that time, with the infection count doubling every 6.4 (5.8, 7.1) days. However, many of these infections have not had time to be become symptomatic, be tested, and confirmed, and thus cannot contribute to the case count. Working backward from the Wu et al estimate, and assuming that the incubation period from exposure to symptom onset is 5.4 (4.2, 6.7) days and that it took a further 4.25 (3.8, 4.7) days from symptom onset to case confirmation in the dataset analyzed here, we infer that only 26650 (9460, 59400) cumulative infections in Wuhan were eligible to be reported as cases. The ratio of reported cases to reporting-eligible infections gives us an ascertainment rate for this time period of 2.9 (1.3, 8.0) percent. Under the assumption that most reporting-eligible infections that went unreported are not severe and will not progress to death, current evidence indicates that the likely overall infection-fatality-ratio (IFR) is roughly 9.4 (3.7, 29.5) per 1000 (or 0.94 (0.37, 2.9) percent).”
The bad news is that this coronavirus has the worst combination of transmissibility and relatively high mortality than any seasonal or pandemic influenza strain since 1918.
These numbers suggest we’re ~6 weeks away from a ~1000-fold increase in the current number of coronavirus cases in the community (excluding those already recognized and quarantined), unless measures are taken to successfully limit that spread. The NHL playoffs start 5 weeks from today.
The new coronavirus is contagious. The R0 is likely 2.5-2.9, meaning each person infected with it infects on average 2-3 more people, and the total number of people infected can double every 6-7 days (and therefore, increase 10-fold in a little over 3 weeks, 100-fold in 6 weeks, 1000-fold in 9 weeks, etc, without steps being taken to stop transmission).
That fits with the quick escalation in case numbers in Wuhan, Lombardy (Italy) and Daegu (South Korea), and no doubt also northern Iran if there was more data available there.
The coronavirus is much more dangerous and more often fatal than influenza. The analysis here includes asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic infections that didn’t present to medical attention as cases, distinguishing the infection fatality ratio from the case fatality ratio, and recognizes that both will vary depending on the availability of medical care (lots of ICU beds would lower both numbers). The analysis also accounts for cases being more likely fatal in certain populations (the elderly), and models the lag time for confirmed cases to be fatal, estimating the time it takes to die of the infection, or to recover.
The case fatality ratio has been widely discussed at 2-3%, but this analysis places the infection fatality ratio lower (as it should be, the difference being the asymptomatic infections that aren’t “cases” coming to medical attention): a little under 1% (0.94%, range of the estimate = 0.37 to 2.95%).
Here’s the key paragraph:
“To estimate the overall infection-fatality-ratio (IFR), we turn to modeling to infer the total infection count and thus the true denominator. Alongside 761 confirmed cases in Wuhan as of January 25, Wu et al estimated that 75815 (37304, 130330) cumulative infections had occured in Wuhan through that time, with the infection count doubling every 6.4 (5.8, 7.1) days. However, many of these infections have not had time to be become symptomatic, be tested, and confirmed, and thus cannot contribute to the case count. Working backward from the Wu et al estimate, and assuming that the incubation period from exposure to symptom onset is 5.4 (4.2, 6.7) days and that it took a further 4.25 (3.8, 4.7) days from symptom onset to case confirmation in the dataset analyzed here, we infer that only 26650 (9460, 59400) cumulative infections in Wuhan were eligible to be reported as cases. The ratio of reported cases to reporting-eligible infections gives us an ascertainment rate for this time period of 2.9 (1.3, 8.0) percent. Under the assumption that most reporting-eligible infections that went unreported are not severe and will not progress to death, current evidence indicates that the likely overall infection-fatality-ratio (IFR) is roughly 9.4 (3.7, 29.5) per 1000 (or 0.94 (0.37, 2.9) percent).”
The bad news is that this coronavirus has the worst combination of transmissibility and relatively high mortality than any seasonal or pandemic influenza strain since 1918.
These numbers suggest we’re ~6 weeks away from a ~1000-fold increase in the current number of coronavirus cases in the community (excluding those already recognized and quarantined), unless measures are taken to successfully limit that spread. The NHL playoffs start 5 weeks from today.
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I find some similarities to what happened in Wuhan as to how local officials in Pripyat first handled Chernobyl in 1986 in the sense that local officials tried to downplay it and thought they could handle the problem without alerting officials in Beijing.
In any event, the NHL and other leagues will follow what local officials decide to do and all we can do is wait.
In any event, the NHL and other leagues will follow what local officials decide to do and all we can do is wait.
Vancouver Canucks
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- Feb 8, 2015
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That is entirely false; China is known for their censorship around the world, and they are trying to downplay the severity of this virus, so that they don't have to feel responsible around the globe for their sanitary mistakes. In fact, they are going around blaming other Asian nations for allowing Chinese people to enter their nations, which is entirely facetious towards them.
Vancouver Canucks
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Vancouver Canucks
Registered User
- Feb 8, 2015
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Why don't you provide a source for that, although it's likely China's hiding most of the true facts?
There's a constant flow of these items now even in English, for example the very latest on CGTN:
Nobel Laureate: COVID-19 epidemic is almost over in China
Nobel Laureate: COVID-19 epidemic is almost over in China
Vancouver Canucks
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It's Chinese news translated in English. Of course, it's a "constant flow of , [...], items, [...], in English".
Other than Xi Jinping's speeches not much is translated, propaganda for domestic consumption and worldwide audiences are two different ballgames. The average Chinese citizen has no access to any other sources but the state media, while foreign audiences must first be convinced that the Chinese narrative is the correct one.
The Lemonheads
Peanut Gallery
Can you guys argue all day and night via Private Message?
It's been days and you're going in circles.
It's been days and you're going in circles.
Dingle
summer is gone
- Nov 22, 2019
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The weather network (of all places) ran a story on warming and more humid weather.
the article suggested that these two conditions will in fact reduce the spread of the virus. It is why flue season is winter. Dry cold air actual;y help certain viruses.
Let's hope they are right.
the article suggested that these two conditions will in fact reduce the spread of the virus. It is why flue season is winter. Dry cold air actual;y help certain viruses.
Let's hope they are right.
discostu
Registered User
On Tokyo, I think May has been speculated as make or break date, but there's no definitive date to work from.
LadyStanley
Registered User
YMMV. I purchased something on Alibaba 2/20; shipped over the weekend. Person I was communicating with to get the deal done essentially said that their company JUST got back to work.
And the NHL is saying they are not concerned with quantity of (custom) sticks available from China (anymore).
Major4Boarding
Unfamiliar Moderator
Complaints filed by other posters has warranted the closing of this thread. That this thread has strayed away from the previous Mod note to get it back on track. Suggest you hitch yourselves onto a thread on reddit or some other forum.
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