Coronavirus

[belair]

Not NHL related, but they are considering cancelling the Summer Olympics in Tokyo, Japan due to the COVID-19 situation in Asia.

 

[GindyDraws]

Misinformation works both ways. There are people who have it that don't even show symptoms for weeks and yes they're still contagious. "CDC believes at this time that symptoms of COVID-19 may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 days after exposure. Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this with this new coronavirus. " Everywhere around the world countries are planning on shutting down EVERYTHING, there's no way the NHL will be any different (that alone should be more telling than all the "Flu is worse" copy paste news reports).

You could use that same argument for just about anything and it's silly e.g. 1.25 million people die per year from car accidents! The flu is already known about, this is a largely unknown virus and people fear the unknown. What I do know (if the numbers aren't a lie) is that 15% of the detected cases are either in critical condition or dead and these are people who are going to get the best care they can get. That's an extremely high number any way you slice it.

I don't downplay the slow gestation period of the illness or the high rate of people still struggling to recover. I just don't want life to completely shit down and everybody to panic like it's a Biblical plague. If that happens, that may work in the disease's favor.

A few months ago, I fought a norovirus scare so I know not to take this lightly as I was too weak to go to the hospital.

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

 

[Gardner McKay]

As far as how this would affect interactivity, the greatest risk is misinformation and fear. Common sense is lost during times of hysteria, so I think people should still go to sporting events. You just got to not act like an idiot and go if you don't feel well.

... which is what you would normally do if you have the cold or flu.

It's funny (but not in a ha-ha way) that we trivialize the flu, which kills tens of thousands annually, but freak out over some flavor of the month disease, which while dangerous, has only killed 2,700 people but has had ten times as many recoveries so far in confirmed cases.

The flu also hits 10's of millions of people each year. If this virus impacted that many people we would be looking at casualties in the 100,000's if not higher. So it isn't really trivial or a flavor of the month. It is a virus that is easy to spread, has a potentially long incubation period, and a mortality rate of ~2% where as the flu mortality rate is ~.095%. The mortality rate in Iran of COVID-19 is 15%.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Not NHL related, but they are considering cancelling the Summer Olympics in Tokyo, Japan due to the COVID-19 situation in Asia.

It's a plausible idea.

 

[someguy44]

With several Mod edits being made to this thread today, I'm now compelled to post a note like the last thread I had to do the same.

Drive this conversation back to the impacts on the NHL or we'll have to close this one too.

Sorry, but this thread should be both OT and related to the NHL. It's not your everyday topic. This is a very serious matter that affects all of us. If you go to CBC, this subject appears in Business, Health, local, World, Canada and several other categories.

We should be allowed to talk about this in all categories. Maybe it may be best to move this to the Lounge instead of closing it because the topic does and will go off the NHL track every now and then.

But, I think this should've stayed in the NHL forum. The entire NHL season is at jeopardy here. That's how serious this topic is.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

With several Mod edits being made to this thread today, I'm now compelled to post a note like the last thread I had to do the same.

Drive this conversation back to the impacts on the NHL or we'll have to close this one too.

To be honest, there are many separate coronavirus-related NHL threads elsewhere.

 

[Major4Boarding]

Sorry, but this thread should be both OT and related to the NHL. It's not your everyday topic. This is a very serious matter that affects all of us. If you go to CBC, this subject appears in Business, Health, local, World, Canada and several other categories.

We should be allowed to talk about this in all categories. Maybe it may be best to move this to the Lounge instead of closing it because the topic does and will go off the NHL track every now and then.

But, I think this should've stayed in the NHL forum. The entire NHL season is at jeopardy here. That's how serious this topic is.

To be honest, there are many separate coronavirus-related NHL threads elsewhere.

Its one thing that this discussion stays on the pathway of business and the impacts it can potentially have on the NHL. It's completely different when it keeps straying over the lines of Political and poster vs poster snipes back and forth.

Again - The banner for this Forum reads: Discuss the financial and business aspects of the NHL. Topics may include the CBA, work stoppages, broadcast contracts, franchise sales, NHL revenues, relocation and expansion.

It's one thing that the conversation pulls in global aspects and what not. So let's simplify it. Keep Politics and the personal bickering out of here and we should be fine. Otherwise...

And one more thing. The BOH board is not a spill-over catch-all Forum. We don't make up the rules regarding what's Off Topic, we just enforce them.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

And one more thing. The BOH board is not a spill-over catch-all Forum. We don't make up the rules regarding what's Off Topic, we just enforce them.

Yes, but coronavirus broadly covers this forum about hockey as a whole. It's not particularly related to business all the time.

 

[Major4Boarding]

Yes, but coronavirus broadly covers this forum about hockey as a whole. It's not particularly related to business all the time.

Its one thing that this discussion stays on the pathway of business and the impacts it can potentially have on the NHL. It's completely different when it keeps straying over the lines of Political and poster vs poster snipes back and forth.

...

It's one thing that the conversation pulls in global aspects and what not. So let's simplify it. Keep Politics and the personal bickering out of here and we should be fine. Otherwise...

 

[HolyCrap]

Where do I order the most effective surgical masks? I figured its better to stock up now, before chaos ensumes and they are all sold out.

Probably too late. I require n95 masks for work, I can’t get anymore. I will literally not be able to do some of my tasks for work because of this.

 

[GindyDraws]

The flu also hits 10's of millions of people each year. If this virus impacted that many people we would be looking at casualties in the 100,000's if not higher. So it isn't really trivial or a flavor of the month. It is a virus that is easy to spread, has a potentially long incubation period, and a mortality rate of ~2% where as the flu mortality rate is ~.095%. The mortality rate in Iran of COVID-19 is 15%.

In Iran's case, you're currently looking at 172 confirmed cases with 2 fatalities.

Again, I know I sound like I'm trivializing this disease, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't scared myself. As someone with all year allergies and, having previously mentioned a bout with the norovirus that the doctors (once I finally got strong enough to make a visit to the primary care facility) said was being complicated by my sinuses in the recovery, I know I would be at risk for possibly dying. I just am concerned about people being consumed by fear altogether that the whole world shuts down and all commercial activities cease. But I also know that we went through similar scares with the original SARS (that the coronavirus is a strain of) and contained it.

 

[BruinLVGA]

I am not sure if this is interesting for you. However in Switzerland it has just been confirmed that two hockey games that are slated to be played in the southern state called Ticino (which is the only state with a confirmed Coronavirus case in the whole nation as we speak), are going to be played "closed doors", meaning with a completely empty stadium, for the objective of preventing the possible spreading of the virus.
I assume this is relevant to this discussion, as it shows what will be the most likely outcome for NHL games, if the virus gets to cities with NHL teams.

It'll be weird to see a hockey game here with no one in attendance.

 

[Gardner McKay]

In Iran's case, you're currently looking at 172 confirmed cases with 2 fatalities.

Again, I know I sound like I'm trivializing this disease, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't scared myself. As someone with all year allergies and, having previously mentioned a bout with the norovirus that the doctors (once I finally got strong enough to make a visit to the primary care facility) said was being complicated by my sinuses in the recovery, I know I would be at risk for possibly dying. I just am concerned about people being consumed by fear altogether that the whole world shuts down and all commercial activities cease. But I also know that we went through similar scares with the original SARS (that the coronavirus is a strain of) and contained it.

I don't know what your source is but... NBC/CNBC are saying 15% for Iran.

Iran's high reported mortality rate for coronavirus raises questions

Iran now has the highest coronavirus death toll outside of China, threatening the wider Middle East

A 2% mortality rate is 200x that of the flu. It is high. There is no country on earth that is being overly cautious. If anything I could make the argument that China didn't do enough fast enough but that is neither here nor there. Considering how easy it is to transmit, the lengthy incubation period, etc. You're talking about a potential major global event. One that would have impact on our lives in ways we never imagined.

All reports are now saying to be prepared for an outbreak here in the US. If that happens, are you going to risk catching a virus that has a ~2% mortality rate just to go watch a hockey game? I mean, there are recommendations from the US Government towards corporations for employees to work from home. The US is doing a great job of getting ahead of this virus but if it gets to the point where people are having to work from home, surely sporting events will become a ghost town for the time being.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

I am not sure if this is interesting for you. However in Switzerland it has just been confirmed that two hockey games that are slated to be played in the southern state called Ticino (which is the only state with a confirmed Coronavirus case in the whole nation as we speak), are going to be played "closed doors", meaning with a completely empty stadium, for the objective of preventing the possible spreading of the virus.
I assume this is relevant to this discussion, as it shows what will be the most likely outcome for NHL games, if the virus gets to cities with NHL teams.

It'll be weird to see a hockey game here with no one in attendance.

Happens in the preseasons [MOD].

 

[GindyDraws]

I don't know what your source is but... NBC/CNBC are saying 15% for Iran.

Iran's high reported mortality rate for coronavirus raises questions

Iran now has the highest coronavirus death toll outside of China, threatening the wider Middle East

A 2% mortality rate is 200x that of the flu. It is high. There is no country on earth that is being overly cautious. If anything I could make the argument that China didn't do enough fast enough but that is neither here nor there. Considering how easy it is to transmit, the lengthy incubation period, etc. You're talking about a potential major global event. One that would have impact on our lives in ways we never imagined.

All reports are now saying to be prepared for an outbreak here in the US. If that happens, are you going to risk catching a virus that has a ~2% mortality rate just to go watch a hockey game? I mean, there are recommendations from the US Government towards corporations for employees to work from home. The US is doing a great job of getting ahead of this virus but if it gets to the point where people are having to work from home, surely sporting events will become a ghost town for the time being.

I look at Wikipedia for my global source on a daily basis, which is "the most reputable source"... , and in the case of Iran's statistics, they got their most recent information from PressTV, which does mention updated numbers. So, somebody needs to beef up the statistics.

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/02/25/619468/Iran-coronavirus-Masih-Daneshvari-Hospital‬

Unfortunately, while I do have college from home (online lessons), my work requires me to go to my place, even though it's only once a week. Thankfully, I got a lot of money saved up for rationing and a chest freezer for extra storage of food, so I can be adequately prepared for an extended stay at home. Don't know how my brother will handle being a homebody, however. He likes to go train spotting and has adult education classes that cannot be done online, so he would probably go stir crazy.

 

[Raistlin]

I want to point out after reading the last couple pages that a lot of people are focused on the mortality rates. Serious and critical cases are very relevant too. The rate of serious cases that require ICU admission ranges from 15-20% of all cases dependent on country. From what I know, long term negative effects on kidney function and lung scarring are expected even after recovery, there are cases surfacing that even recovered patients continue to be virulent too. When SARS hit Asia, a lot of patients that survived developed serious arthritis and bone density issues afterwards.

Bottom line even with a 2% mortality rate, you just don't want to catch it or pass it to people you know. If there is a community outbreak, it's not up to the league, the government will step in and impose laws to discourage population amassing.

 

[Spartachat]

It would be surreal to watch a Stanley Cup final with nobody in attendance.

 

[Svechhammer]

I want to point out after reading the last couple pages that a lot of people are focused on the mortality rates. Serious and critical cases are very relevant too. The rate of serious cases that require ICU admission ranges from 15-20% of all cases dependent on country. From what I know, long term negative effects on kidney function and lung scarring are expected even after recovery, there are cases surfacing that even recovered patients continue to be virulent too. When SARS hit Asia, a lot of patients that survived developed serious arthritis and bone density issues afterwards.

Bottom line even with a 2% mortality rate, you just don't want to catch it or pass it to people you know. If there is a community outbreak, it's not up to the league, the government will step in and impose laws to discourage population amassing.

Calculating mortality rates is dependent upon knowing the actual numbers of those infected.

Given how the origination region has had the vast majority of information regarding infection numbers, death counts, etc under tight lock and key, it is near impossible to get an accurate assessment on what the actual mortality rate would be. Its also likely that there is a significant portion of the population that had a minor reaction to it and treated with OTC medication or didn't even know they were infected, which would further throw off the numbers.

And, in the end, if we had the same hype around influenza that we currently have around the coronavirus, you'd be terrified to walk out your door. Society would cease to operate if the media driven paranoia was focused on that rather than coronavirus. And the paranoia is already growing where you have cruise ships in the Caribbean being denied access to ports because a single crew member tested positive for Influenza-A.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I want to point out after reading the last couple pages that a lot of people are focused on the mortality rates. Serious and critical cases are very relevant too. The rate of serious cases that require ICU admission ranges from 15-20% of all cases dependent on country. From what I know, long term negative effects on kidney function and lung scarring are expected even after recovery, there are cases surfacing that even recovered patients continue to be virulent too. When SARS hit Asia, a lot of patients that survived developed serious arthritis and bone density issues afterwards.

Bottom line even with a 2% mortality rate, you just don't want to catch it or pass it to people you know. If there is a community outbreak, it's not up to the league, the government will step in and impose laws to discourage population amassing.

That is actually an outstanding point. I read an article (trying to find it now) that said the mortality rate of those who have contracted the virus a second time is upwards of 40% and those who were critical the first time they caught the virus it is upwards of 60%.

 

[Albatros]

Calculating mortality rates is dependent upon knowing the actual numbers of those infected.

Given how the origination region has had the vast majority of information regarding infection numbers, death counts, etc under tight lock and key, it is near impossible to get an accurate assessment on what the actual mortality rate would be. Its also likely that there is a significant portion of the population that had a minor reaction to it and treated with OTC medication or didn't even know they were infected, which would further throw off the numbers.

And, in the end, if we had the same hype around influenza that we currently have around the coronavirus, you'd be terrified to walk out your door. Society would cease to operate if the media driven paranoia was focused on that rather than coronavirus. And the paranoia is already growing where you have cruise ships in the Caribbean being denied access to ports because a single crew member tested positive for Influenza-A.

If influenza A is your concern just get a flu shot, no need for paranoia.

 

[Raistlin]

Calculating mortality rates is dependent upon knowing the actual numbers of those infected.

Given how the origination region has had the vast majority of information regarding infection numbers, death counts, etc under tight lock and key, it is near impossible to get an accurate assessment on what the actual mortality rate would be. Its also likely that there is a significant portion of the population that had a minor reaction to it and treated with OTC medication or didn't even know they were infected, which would further throw off the numbers.

And, in the end, if we had the same hype around influenza that we currently have around the coronavirus, you'd be terrified to walk out your door. Society would cease to operate if the media driven paranoia was focused on that rather than coronavirus. And the paranoia is already growing where you have cruise ships in the Caribbean being denied access to ports because a single crew member tested positive for Influenza-A.

Given what I know about China, the mortality rate could only be higher than the 2% they gave WHO. The Diamond Princess served as a pretty illuminating petri dish of sort, I read the numbers come to 2.3% so far, which is the same as it's R naught. The good news on the side of humanity is that the virus hasn't showed signs of mutation yet, so we can sit tight and wait for expedited vaccines... IMHO that's the only course of action to avoid large casualties.

 

[LadyStanley]

Not NHL related, but they are considering cancelling the Summer Olympics in Tokyo, Japan due to the COVID-19 situation in Asia.

We are six months out. Headline I read indicated they'd make the final decision at 3 months out. So, mid-May.

Have to believe the IOC would have insurance to cover this, but if not, will be a blow to JOC and local city/cities as well.

 

[Raistlin]

If influenza A is your concern just get a flu shot, no need for paranoia.

Shot in the dark, do you know what exactly are the recovered SARS patients in HK dealing with now after they "recovered"?

 

[BruinLVGA]

Happens in the preseasons [MOD].

What happens in the preseason.