OT: Coronavirus XXXVI: Bat Scratch Fever

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Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
Oct 8, 2017
45,904
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Canuck hunting
I am. I'm in lockdown right now because my region has an outbreak including a variant of concern. I'm not even suggesting it's any more dangerous or transmissible than other variants. Our numbers were non-existent until some shlub brought this back, spread it within a retirement community and inadvertently caused the death of one person this far.

What are you trying to argue here? Do you think people should be travelling freely at this point?

I already stated many times, and today, that I am not travelling or thinking people should be travelling recreationally during a pandemic.

But I'm pretty live and let live. I establish my own safety during a pandemic, I don't expect others to drop everything further to my safety.

You were the one that specifically brought up the UK Covid Variant. So that it made it seem like you were stating that its much more of a concern. Why state it like you did? Its easy for a reader to lump that in with the uber histrionics we're hearing everywhere about the UK variant.

Thanks for clarifying.
 
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belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
38,625
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Canada
I already stated many times, and today, that I am not travelling or thinking people should be travelling recreationally during a pandemic.

But I'm pretty live and let live. I establish my own safety during a pandemic, I don't expect others to drop everything further to my safety.

You were the one that specifically brought up the UK Covid Variant. So that it made it seem like you were stating that its much more of a concern. Why state it like you did? Its easy for a reader to lump that in with the uber histrionics we're hearing everywhere about the UK variant.

Thanks for clarifying.
I actually brought up the South African variant. But we're talking about the same virus. It all boils down to people taking unnecessary risks for their own personal enjoyment.

I agree that we should continue living our lives and believe that most businesses can be run while limiting the spread. If my local Walmart can stuff 367 people in there on any given day, a bloody restaurant can operate safely at half capacity. They're getting it wrong--I won't argue that.
 
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ThePhoenixx

Registered User
Aug 7, 2005
9,302
5,787
They're trying to go about it in a way where as many people can work as possible still, balancing essential services vs non-essential. We're not "locked up", we can still do the things we have to do to get by. It's not optimal for quality of life, but there is no optimal solution when a virus with no vaccine comes about.

This pandemic was going to hurt the economy no matter what. You know what else would hurt the economy a lot? If millions and millions of skillfully employed people died when a large chunk could've been prevented.

The next time I see a pandemic coming I'm going to support a fit candidate. Then they will let us continue exercising. No more chubby, cheeseburger-eating leaders. ;)
 
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WaitingForUser

Registered User
Mar 19, 2010
4,604
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That's not true either. Historically, quarantines have applied both to the sick and people who aren't yet sick but might carry a disease.

As for the "healthy people should be allowed to live their lives" everyone is healthy until they get sick.
Healthy people are only healthy until they get sick? That’s like everyone is alive until they are dead. Really that’s a very logical and empirical thought. Yes I guess I will have to agree on that one. Still has no bearing on the issue though. Would you have had this same line of thinking in 2018?


Our immune systems need to experience different germs and viruses. We have evolved to fight off viruses and bacteria by use of this immune system. If your immune system is not exposed to germs and viruses and diseases it doesn’t continue to function properly. Our bodies are amazing engines that are fueled by experience. And so far we have been able to survive for a very long time using this recipe. If your body isn’t allowed to do what it has evolved to do it will stop being able to do it’s job.
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
Oct 8, 2017
45,904
55,998
Canuck hunting
I actually brought up the South African variant. But we're talking about the same virus. It all boils down to people taking unnecessary risks for their own personal enjoyment.

I agree that we should continue living our lives and believe that most businesses can be run while limiting the spread. If my local Walmart can stuff 367 people in there on any given day, a bloody restaurant can operate safely at half capacity. They're getting it wrong--I won't argue that.

In AB we have the UK variant. Getting about 10 a day. We have only 7 in total, in the whole province, of the South African variant. Given none others are reported here I'm assuming no other known variants are here or in any appreciable amount.

My own take all along is the pandemic fits the Gompertz curve.

Stanford's Nobel Laureate develops a prediction model for SARS-CoV-2 (news-medical.net)


This is significant, and understanding the nature of the Covid curve, its already apparent that Covid has run through most of the susceptible population it will infect, possibly regardless of variant.

So that the variants modeling and forecasts are not taking into account what the Gompertz function tells us in terms of Covid spread. Its not Herd immunity we're looking for, its just the likelihood whether people continue to get infected in hospital, nursing homes, packed care homes or high density housing AND as we're vaccinating those vulnerable people.

Based on countless studies analyzing degree of sickness being correlated with degree of viral load one would think most harmful contacts are not going to occur in 30 mins in a fast food place, or casual shopping and such.

Walmarts are actually pretty safe as other stores are. The only thing I wouldn't have open is Malls as far as retail. Big box outlets are the best because there is large indoor space in which viral material can diffuse. People get extremely ill, and appreciable viral load, when they spend ample time, or living, in small indoor places with poor air circulation or filtering.
The only outbreaks one tends to see in Walmarts is employees. People spending hours in the store, taking masks off, eating lunch in a lunch room etc. Customers thankfully are not contracting it provided they have a mask on, practice advised precautions.
 
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ThePhoenixx

Registered User
Aug 7, 2005
9,302
5,787
In AB we have the UK variant. Getting about 10 a day. We have only 7 in total, in the whole province, of the South African variant. Given none others are reported here I'm assuming no other known variants are here or in any appreciable amount.

My own take all along is the pandemic fits the Gompertz curve.

Stanford's Nobel Laureate develops a prediction model for SARS-CoV-2 (news-medical.net)


This is significant, and understanding the nature of the Covid curve, its already apparent that Covid has run through most of the susceptible population it will infect, possibly regardless of variant.

So that the variants modeling and forecasts are not taking into account what the Gompertz curve tells us in terms of Covid spread. Its not Herd immunity we're looking for, its just the likelihood whether people continue to get infected in hospital, nursing homes, packed care homes or high density housing.

Based on countless studies analyzing degree of sickness being correlated with degree of viral load one would think most harmful contacts are not going to occur in 30 mins in a fast food place, or casual shopping and such.

Walmarts are actually pretty safe as other stores are. The only thing I wouldn't have open is Malls as far as retail. Big box outlets are the best because there is large indoor space in which viral material can diffuse. People get extremely ill, and appreciable viral load, when they spend ample time, or living, in small indoor places with poor air circulation or filtering.
The only outbreaks one tends to see in Walmarts is employees. People spending hours in the store, taking masks off, eating lunch in a lunch room etc. Customers thankfully are not contracting it provided they have a mask on, practice advised precautions.

Nobody was contracting it at Walmarts even before the mask bylaw.

However, a bunch of workers got it right after the mask bylaw was put in effect.
 

Little Fury

Registered User
Jun 21, 2006
17,831
6,800
Healthy people are only healthy until they get sick? That’s like everyone is alive until they are dead. Really that’s a very logical and empirical thought. Yes I guess I will have to agree on that one. Still has no bearing on the issue though. Would you have had this same line of thinking in 2018?

How hard is it to understand that letting "healthy people live their lives" means more chances for them to catch and spread the disease?

Our immune systems need to experience different germs and viruses. We have evolved to fight off viruses and bacteria by use of this immune system. If your immune system is not exposed to germs and viruses and diseases it doesn’t continue to function properly. Our bodies are amazing engines that are fueled by experience. And so far we have been able to survive for a very long time using this recipe. If your body isn’t allowed to do what it has evolved to do it will stop being able to do it’s job.

And who cares if people get sick, suffer and die along the way, right? If only there was someway we could mimic that natural process of developing immunity without killing people off so you can "live your life". Maybe some kind of shot or something?
 

Little Fury

Registered User
Jun 21, 2006
17,831
6,800
H1N1 or the Spanish flu killed 50-60 million people between 1918 and 1921. When the same viral strain re-emerged as the Hong Kong flu in 1968-70 only 4 million died. When H1N1 re emerged in the 2000’s less than 1 million people died. It’s call genetics those that survive pass on their genes to their children who survive better because of genetic memory.

The Hong Kong flu was a completely different virus than the Spanish influenza.
 

Little Fury

Registered User
Jun 21, 2006
17,831
6,800
He only shows up in these threads when his bubble is threatened.

He's made it very clear he is fine with his life now.

That's the answer to your question.

You know nothing about me or my circumstances and you should probably remember that personal attacks are against the rules here.
 

SupremeTeam16

5-14-6-1
May 31, 2013
8,103
7,207
Baker’s Bay
Closing in on 8B people and we’ve quadrupled our population in just over 50 years. The world is going to keep coming up with new and better ways to try and shave us down, the species is really starting to throw things out of whack. Airborne pathogens seems like a winner considering the fact that as a whole were overwhelmingly just dumb, selfish cattle who like to live on top of each other in cities of millions. A little tweaking and working on the effectiveness and she’ll be able to really put a dent in us.
 

WaitingForUser

Registered User
Mar 19, 2010
4,604
4,253
Edmonton
The Hong Kong flu was a completely different virus than the Spanish influenza.
You just proved my point here thank you. It was H3N2 which was derived from anyone?

H1N1.

which shows exactly what I am talking about. If you are not able to recognize that this Covid 19 disease caused by Cov2 will mutate and come back stronger in the future I don’t understand how to explain it you better. One strain of influenza gave us some immunity to another.
 
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Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
Oct 8, 2017
45,904
55,998
Canuck hunting
Closing in on 8B people and we’ve quadrupled our population in just over 50 years. The world is going to keep coming up with new and better ways to try and shave us down, the species is really starting to throw things out of whack. Airborne pathogens seems like a winner considering the fact that as a whole were overwhelmingly just dumb, selfish cattle who like to live on top of each other in cities of millions. A little tweaking and working on the effectiveness and she’ll be able to really put a dent in us.

Turns out living in World Class cities with +12M people packed like sardines was overrated. Who knew?
 

bellagiobob

Registered User
Jul 27, 2006
22,315
51,682
Everyone who disagrees with the narrative in this thread, aside from Frank, has largely moved on because it's a waste of our time trying to have reasonable discussions here. Frank is just using it as a workout for dealing with these types of arguments in real life. Kudos to him. There are dribbles of good data in these threads, but most of it is a cesspool. I follow it to keep an eye on the good stuff that is posted. I find it funny that you think the reason people have stopped having discussions here is because things have improved. Hilarious.

Actually the last 6 weeks or so this thread has been quite reasonable, with lots of informed opinions and good talk. Best it's been during the entire pandemic by far. The guys who just want to make trouble have got bored and moved on, the guys who want to pass on some information and have a reasonable discussion have stayed.
I guess the definition of a reasonable discussion is in the eye of the beholder. As far as it being a cesspool, you clearly don't go into our GDT's when we are losing. ;)
 

Section337

Registered User
Jul 7, 2007
5,349
709
Edmonton, AB
Back open for business.

Thank you, Bryanbryoil, for managing this thread, even though some of the discussions turn into arguments with no likelihood of resolution.

Personally, I really like the information sharing that is possible here. In fact I come here for the Alberta daily number, rather than some news outlet.
 
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JordanGalhanth

Registered User
Apr 21, 2012
4,079
4,537
Thank you, Bryanbryoil, for managing this thread, even though some of the discussions turn into arguments with no likelihood of resolution.

Personally, I really like the information sharing that is possible here. In fact I come hear for the Alberta daily number, rather than some news outlet.

I've been getting my main COVID info here as well. Occasional arguments aside, it's nice to enjoy reasonable thinking instead of settling for MSM's fear-mongering.
 

Yukon Joe

Registered User
Aug 3, 2011
6,248
4,329
YWG -> YXY -> YEG
So two weeks after a very small-scale re-opening it looks like Alberta's numbers have plateaued or increased ever so slightly, instead of continuing on the steep decline from December.

What does this mean for further re-opening? I know government is under intense pressure to re-open but I'm not sure how you can in those circumstances. Also to what effect are Covid variants playing a factor here,
 

Stoneman89

Registered User
Feb 8, 2008
27,429
21,835
So two weeks after a very small-scale re-opening it looks like Alberta's numbers have plateaued or increased ever so slightly, instead of continuing on the steep decline from December.

What does this mean for further re-opening? I know government is under intense pressure to re-open but I'm not sure how you can in those circumstances. Also to what effect are Covid variants playing a factor here,
The rest of the week and to the end of the weekend will tell the tale for any future action. The variants are still quite small, but from reports, they have the potential to expand quickly. Just need to keep testing and contacting to keep them under control.
 

CantHaveTkachev

Legends
Nov 30, 2004
49,880
29,768
St. OILbert, AB
So two weeks after a very small-scale re-opening it looks like Alberta's numbers have plateaued or increased ever so slightly, instead of continuing on the steep decline from December.

What does this mean for further re-opening? I know government is under intense pressure to re-open but I'm not sure how you can in those circumstances. Also to what effect are Covid variants playing a factor here,
only if hospitalizations rise
Step 2 requires less than 450 people in hospital and right now it's at 326 and holding steady
cases do continue to drop, albeit slightly

Stronger public health measures
 
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