OT: Coronavirus XXXVI: Bat Scratch Fever

[bellagiobob]

 

[bellagiobob]

A thread by Courtney Theriault

Hinshaw says you need to be born in 1946 or earlier, you will be eligible for the vaccine tomorrow - even if you're still 74.

All seniors who want a first dose will get it before the end of March. All vaccines will be made by appointment.

#yeg #yyc #ableg #covid19ab
Vaccine will be administered 7 days a week.

But appointments will only be from 8:20 AM and 3:40 PM until more doses arrive.

Details on pharmacy options will come later this week.

Family can book for older relatives.

#yeg #yyc #ableg #covid19ab
Hinshaw says there are 58 sites across the province.

Adds they will work in coming months with pharmacies and physician offices to help with vaccine rollout.

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[DaGap]

Good to see 10k people already booked for their shots.

 

[bellagiobob]

I apologize in advance for providing information that apparently is contributing to this thread being a “cesspool”.

 

[Stoneman89]

In other news, Quebec's premier announced "Great news, anyone over 85 years of age can now be vaccinated. "

And then all 789 people stepped forward.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Active cases in Edmonton have dropped under 1K, they are 930 as of yesterday, a full 700 less than Calgary region.

Red Deer and Grande Prairie are current hotspots. Red Deer with 550 cases, very high per population, and Grande Prairie with 230. Seems like the virus is still hitting some regions. Others Fort Sask-8 cases, Sherwood Park 30 cases, St Pl+Spruce grove 16 cases. Lots of places within Edmonton and Edmonton region where numbers are just declining to insignificant. Continued positive signs. By next week its looking like there will be no redzones in all of Edmonton region.

 

[Yukon Joe]

only if hospitalizations rise
Step 2 requires less than 450 people in hospital and right now it's at 326 and holding steady
cases do continue to drop, albeit slightly

Stronger public health measures

Yes, but if the very little amount of loosening has caused our numbers decline to stall, won't going to stage 2 almost inevitably lead to numbers increasing again?

Thankfully at least as we move into March and the Spring we all spend more times outdoors so that should help immensely in any event.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Yes, but if the very little amount of loosening has caused our numbers decline to stall, won't going to stage 2 almost inevitably lead to numbers increasing again?

Thankfully at least as we move into March and the Spring we all spend more times outdoors so that should help immensely in any event.

most likely but vaccinations are supposed to ramp up even more every week and if we continue to vaccinate the most vulnerable, then in theory hospitalizations won't increase with cases

 

[Drivesaitl]

So two weeks after a very small-scale re-opening it looks like Alberta's numbers have plateaued or increased ever so slightly, instead of continuing on the steep decline from December.

What does this mean for further re-opening? I know government is under intense pressure to re-open but I'm not sure how you can in those circumstances. Also to what effect are Covid variants playing a factor here,

This is almost entirely inaccurate. Most regions have continued to see declines. There have been some spot outbreaks, at Olymel plant in Central Alberta, and Grande Prairie seeing a spike. Everywhere else has been continual decline.

Increases? What are you referring to?

 

[Dorian2]

Just tried to find out if I could book an appt. for my Mom for vaccine. Put in her postal code for available sites near her and it hung. Wasn't too surprised. I'll try to update here on any info I gather over the next couple days. For those with older folks that are eligible, don't hold your breath.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Just tried to find out if I could book an appt. for my Mom for vaccine. Put in her postal code for available sites near her and it hung. Wasn't too surprised. I'll try to update here on any info I gather over the next couple days. For those with older folks that are eligible, don't hold your breath.

when do the vaccinations actually start for the 75+?

 

[Yukon Joe]

This is almost entirely inaccurate. Most regions have continued to see declines. There have been some spot outbreaks, at Olymel plant in Central Alberta, and Grande Prairie seeing a spike. Everywhere else has been continual decline.

Increases? What are you referring to?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-covid-coronavirus-february-24-1.5925789

First chart is interactive, mouse over and you can see the 7-day rolling average. From a low of 297 on Feb 14, we're now at 330. That's new cases, not hospitalizations - but hospitalizations are a lagging indicator.

It's only a 10% increase so maybe we're just plateauing, but numbers aren't declining any longer.

 

[bellagiobob]

So two weeks after a very small-scale re-opening it looks like Alberta's numbers have plateaued or increased ever so slightly, instead of continuing on the steep decline from December.

What does this mean for further re-opening? I know government is under intense pressure to re-open but I'm not sure how you can in those circumstances. Also to what effect are Covid variants playing a factor here,

It was a fairly big opening when you consider the number of restaurants and bars that were allowed to reopen. I don't think anybody expected the decline to continue at the rate it was on, as we would have been at minimal cases in no time if that rate continued. When you say our cases have plateaued or increased slightly, our active cases continue to decrease pretty much every single day, and hospitalization has gone down another 50 people in the last week, and continues to trend downwards. The variants so far have not shown to be an issue, with very few new variant cases reported each day. So not sure what you mean we can't reduce certain restrictions under these circumstances, as most metrics show we are not in a health care crisis and moving in the right direction. Hinshaw mentioned she will look at hospitalization numbers, but not in isolation, but also with other leading indicators to determine the next move.

 

[Drivesaitl]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-covid-coronavirus-february-24-1.5925789

First chart is interactive, mouse over and you can see the 7-day rolling average. From a low of 297 on Feb 14, we're now at 330. That's new cases, not hospitalizations - but hospitalizations are a lagging indicator.

It's only a 10% increase so maybe we're just plateauing, but numbers aren't declining any longer.

Some of that result is noise of stats dumps. Some of the cases from a prior week were sometimes added on. This being a fairly regular occurrence unfortunately and means you can't take any specific data point as accurate in itself. There were also less tests completed and results done though the Valentines and Family day long weekend. This lead to a lower reporting on Feb 14 that was not necessarily accurate. You're taking two rolling average numbers and making a determination that numbers are increasing due to relaxing restrictions and "what do we do now"

Thats a 30 case per day difference across one time interval. That doesn't reflect at all what the overall decline has been. I mean you may think that the slightest of increases is due to relaxation but clearly there is not enough information in to make that kind of claim or have that as a concern.

Whats happening at the Olymel plant would explain all the provincial increase in anycase. Thats about 500 cases stemming from that plant, which has little to do with any change in restrictions and has all to do with meat packing plants being high risk industry throughout the pandemic.

 

[bellagiobob]

Just tried to find out if I could book an appt. for my Mom for vaccine. Put in her postal code for available sites near her and it hung. Wasn't too surprised. I'll try to update here on any info I gather over the next couple days. For those with older folks that are eligible, don't hold your breath.

when do the vaccinations actually start for the 75+?

First few days will be a gong show, then likely slow down.

 

[Yukon Joe]

It was a fairly big opening when you consider the number of restaurants and bars that were allowed to reopen. I don't think anybody expected the decline to continue at the rate it was on, as we would have been at minimal cases in no time if that rate continued. When you say our cases have plateaued or increased slightly, our active cases continue to decrease pretty much every single day, and hospitalization has gone down another 50 people in the last week, and continues to trend downwards. The variants so far have not shown to be an issue, with very few new variant cases reported each day. So not sure what you mean we can't reduce certain restrictions under these circumstances, as most metrics show we are not in a health care crisis and moving in the right direction. Hinshaw mentioned she will look at hospitalization numbers, but not in isolation, but also with other leading indicators to determine the next move.

I'd be careful with "The variants so far have not shown to be an issue" - Covid-19 itself had not shown itself to be an issue in February of 2020.

I have no idea what the answer is - I'm not saying we can't or shouldn't go to Stage 2. I'm just worried about it.

 

[bellagiobob]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-covid-coronavirus-february-24-1.5925789

First chart is interactive, mouse over and you can see the 7-day rolling average. From a low of 297 on Feb 14, we're now at 330. That's new cases, not hospitalizations - but hospitalizations are a lagging indicator.

It's only a 10% increase so maybe we're just plateauing, but numbers aren't declining any longer.

Even at a daily new case number of 400, with the 4.4% hospitalization rate, that's 18 people going to hospital each day, and if each stay is around 14 days, that still only gives you around 250 expected hospitalizations. Some will stay in ICU longer, etc, but no where near crisis numbers. Spread out over the number of hospitals we have, it's very manageable.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I'd be careful with "The variants so far have not shown to be an issue" - Covid-19 itself had not shown itself to be an issue in February of 2020.

I have no idea what the answer is - I'm not saying we can't or shouldn't go to Stage 2. I'm just worried about it.

This again, inaccurate. Just not the case, unless one happened to be listening to the wrong sources of information. Covid-19 by February 2020 was known to be a huge concern. Just took a while here for authorities to realize that. Several posters on this board including myself were already aware of the huge concern.

 

[bellagiobob]

I'd be careful with "The variants so far have not shown to be an issue" - Covid-19 itself had not shown itself to be an issue in February of 2020.

I have no idea what the answer is - I'm not saying we can't or shouldn't go to Stage 2. I'm just worried about it.

I don't know how else to state something that isn't a problem so far. We have seen negligible daily cases of the variants, with virtually no daily growth. Is it a potential concern and should we be aware of it - absolutely? But it isn't right now, and not currently trending in that direction. It's like me saying the Oilers have won 10 of 12 and are playing well and trending in the right direction, and someone saying to be careful, injuries will happen, and our goaltending will eventually suck and we will be lottery team again. May happen, but not happening right now, and not trending that way. Lot's of positive signs out there, both for the Oilers and the virus.

 

[Yukon Joe]

This again, inaccurate. Just not the case, unless one happened to be listening to the wrong sources of information. Covid-19 by February 2020 was known to be a huge concern. Just took a while here for authorities to realize that. Several posters on this board including myself were already aware of the huge concern.

Yeah but @bellagiobob (who I was replying to) had said that variants weren't a concern because we have had "very few new variant cases reported each day".

So you're kind of missing my point. You can't say something isn't a concern just because it hasn't really taken off yet. It has in other jurisdictions.

 

[bellagiobob]

Yeah but @bellagiobob (who I was replying to) had said that variants weren't a concern because we have had "very few new variant cases reported each day".

So you're kind of missing my point. You can't say something isn't a concern just because it hasn't really taken off yet. It has in other jurisdictions.

You're putting the wrong words in my mouth. I never said variants weren't a concern. I said that variants so far have not shown to be an issue. Big difference.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yeah but @bellagiobob (who I was replying to) had said that variants weren't a concern because we have had "very few new variant cases reported each day".

So you're kind of missing my point. You can't say something isn't a concern just because it hasn't really taken off yet. It has in other jurisdictions.

That is NOT what @bellagiobob stated.

This brings us full circle. The UK variant has not caused a prolonged explosion of cases in the UK. Well not for long in anycase. It did not overwhelm the nation, or result in extended crisis. Covid cases in UK, in London, where variant is high profile, are trending down severely.

You're buying all the fear hype of the Covid variants without really examining numbers, on the ground, and what has actually occurred. Much of the UK increase in January could be explained by relaxing of restrictions throughout the holiday season (bad move). In anycase it didn't take long at all in UK for daily cases to plummet down subsequent to the increase. This being inconsistent with the modeling predictions.

The global information thus far is that the Variants are not seemingly causing the explosions in numbers that modeling has predicted. I'll look at real world results prior to the modeling and we have that given that the variants have infected other nations BEFORE settling in here. We already know the patterns. The global pattern is Covid-19 in decline.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You're putting the wrong words in my mouth. I never said variants weren't a concern. I said that variants so far have not shown to be an issue. Big difference.

Absolutely, and I agree. I noted the word change attempt as well. Its annoying when you state things as carefully as you do, and then have them be misworded to a different meaning. Your statement was entirely reasonable.