OT: Coronavirus XXXVI: Bat Scratch Fever

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Stoneman89

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Feb 8, 2008
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I'd be careful with "The variants so far have not shown to be an issue" - Covid-19 itself had not shown itself to be an issue in February of 2020.

I have no idea what the answer is - I'm not saying we can't or shouldn't go to Stage 2. I'm just worried about it.
Just relax, man, there's no sense worrying about something you can't control. Just continue to do the things you're supposed to do like masking,washing, and social distancing and you should be fine. Unless you're immune system is really bad, let the other guys continue to lock themselves in the basement. Live your life and carry on. The rapid increase in vaccinations should certainly help even out and then start dropping the spread and continue to lower hospitalizations and ICU cases. My wife works at the Grey Nuns and they were down to one case in ICU last week. Might even be at zero by now.
 

bellagiobob

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Jul 27, 2006
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This again, inaccurate. Just not the case, unless one happened to be listening to the wrong sources of information. Covid-19 by February 2020 was known to be a huge concern. Just took a while here for authorities to realize that. Several posters on this board including myself were already aware of the huge concern.

I recall your initial posts on the virus, and you were beating a solo drum. I honestly thought at the time it was no big deal, but kudos to you, you were well ahead of the curve in recognizing the severity, and the lack of a timely response from our govt.
 

Drivesaitl

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I recall your initial posts on the virus, and you were beating a solo drum. I honestly thought at the time it was no big deal, but kudos to you, you were well ahead of the curve in recognizing the severity, and the lack of a timely response from our govt.

Thanks. Not a solo drum though, several of us had the concern at the time. Those that were paying attention to the responses in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, NZ. Countries closest to knowing what was actually going on, and the severity and magnitude.
 

Stoneman89

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Feb 8, 2008
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Thanks. Not a solo drum though, several of us had the concern at the time. Those that were paying attention to the responses in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, NZ. Countries closest to knowing what was actually going on, and the severity and magnitude.
Yes, good for you for sure. I just wish the people that we have placed in positions with the so-called "expertise" and influence and decision-making could have seen this as well.
 

Satire

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Nov 20, 2016
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In all likelihood once we reach spring I suspect we will get a slight reprieve. It'll be some time before we have mass vaccination to the general public, but if we can get it done in time for the Fall we might be able to have a somewhat normal Winter.

Lots of unknowns with the vaccine and virus. I suspect in the long run covid-19 might well end up being like the flu in that it will be seasonal and present a health risk. Between the vaccine and some degree of natural exposure I wonder where this will all end up and whether we will ever go back to our lackadaisical attitudes towards public spaces.
 

LaGu

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Jan 4, 2011
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That is NOT what @bellagiobob stated.

This brings us full circle. The UK variant has not caused a prolonged explosion of cases in the UK. Well not for long in anycase. It did not overwhelm the nation, or result in extended crisis. Covid cases in UK, in London, where variant is high profile, are trending down severely.

You're buying all the fear hype of the Covid variants without really examining numbers, on the ground, and what has actually occurred. Much of the UK increase in January could be explained by relaxing of restrictions throughout the holiday season (bad move). In anycase it didn't take long at all in UK for daily cases to plummet down subsequent to the increase. This being inconsistent with the modeling predictions.

The global information thus far is that the Variants are not seemingly causing the explosions in numbers that modeling has predicted. I'll look at real world results prior to the modeling and we have that given that the variants have infected other nations BEFORE settling in here. We already know the patterns. The global pattern is Covid-19 in decline.
I am not sure what media you are following on this, but I bet they are beating the dangerous-variant drum pretty hard. Here we are aware of it, right now it is taking over in Italy and in some regions in Sweden, basically stopping the natural decline of this last wave.

Regarding the UK it was very serious, and it did transmit more easy. Difference was that they were much better prepared, but it still was not a good situation at all. Some other European countries have seen this variant-wave as well.

I am not exactly sure, maybe I misunderstand your point a bit. But the variants, in our case the UK one, even if not more dangerous, is definitely causing a quicker spread. That does not mean it can not stay at a handful of cases and nothing more, this also happened in several countries. They basically continue to see cases from time to time but for whatever reason it does not take hold. This was more or less the case here, for a long while they saw some cases of the variant but nothing more. Now it has apparently started to spread much more, and restrictions are incoming :(:(:(...

The vaccines cannot come in fast enough.... I am still very very much sick and tired of this shit!
 

Drivesaitl

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I am not sure what media you are following on this, but I bet they are beating the dangerous-variant drum pretty hard. Here we are aware of it, right now it is taking over in Italy and in some regions in Sweden, basically stopping the natural decline of this last wave.

Regarding the UK it was very serious, and it did transmit more easy. Difference was that they were much better prepared, but it still was not a good situation at all. Some other European countries have seen this variant-wave as well.

I am not exactly sure, maybe I misunderstand your point a bit. But the variants, in our case the UK one, even if not more dangerous, is definitely causing a quicker spread. That does not mean it can not stay at a handful of cases and nothing more, this also happened in several countries. They basically continue to see cases from time to time but for whatever reason it does not take hold. This was more or less the case here, for a long while they saw some cases of the variant but nothing more. Now it has apparently started to spread much more, and restrictions are incoming :(:(:(...

The vaccines cannot come in fast enough.... I am still very very much sick and tired of this shit!

tbh my own version of Covid fatigue is not tracking all the world data as well as I did a year ago. So that I'm much more familiar with specific numbers in the UK, and what has been occurring there due to the UK having the biggest instance of the variant. I'm less familiar with Sweden now, or Italy, but nothing really jumping out at me either.

To follow what I'm saying one perhaps needs to look at the Gompertz curve I have cited countless times. Essentially Covid-19, probably even variants, most closely follows that growth function. Its imperative to understand that there is decline in subsequent susceptible cases as the virus goes on, in other words a finite supply of potential impacted individuals. The models are wrong in magnitude but also not factoring in such regression. Thus prolonged peaks of new cases were not seen in UK. Instead a rapid increase, and decrease, in effect it seems as if Variants just fast tracked what was left of susceptible population to infect. Which then led to vastly reduced infection rates, and in a quick turnover.

Its useful to note that daily cases in UK have been lower for a whole month now than they were even in second wave.

Thing is by all accounts if individuals just continue to safeguard themselves as they are they can avoid contracting variants just like they could avoid contracting Wild covid.
 
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CantHaveTkachev

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I am not sure what media you are following on this, but I bet they are beating the dangerous-variant drum pretty hard. Here we are aware of it, right now it is taking over in Italy and in some regions in Sweden, basically stopping the natural decline of this last wave.

Regarding the UK it was very serious, and it did transmit more easy. Difference was that they were much better prepared, but it still was not a good situation at all. Some other European countries have seen this variant-wave as well.

I am not exactly sure, maybe I misunderstand your point a bit. But the variants, in our case the UK one, even if not more dangerous, is definitely causing a quicker spread. That does not mean it can not stay at a handful of cases and nothing more, this also happened in several countries. They basically continue to see cases from time to time but for whatever reason it does not take hold. This was more or less the case here, for a long while they saw some cases of the variant but nothing more. Now it has apparently started to spread much more, and restrictions are incoming :(:(:(...

The vaccines cannot come in fast enough.... I am still very very much sick and tired of this shit!
not a single country has seen an abnormal curve due to the variants despite the fear
 
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Drivesaitl

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Unfortunately, there are still people around here (very vocal) that adhere to the Covid-zero prescription before we should open stuff up. Certain members in influence, like our lovely and talented opposition leader have never been for the loosening of restrictions, so we are indeed fortunate that we have some balance in the province.

Its interesting how vision zero has impacted nearly everything in public health. Speed limits going down down down because of untenable demands to bring casualties down to zero, which will never happen. Homeless to zero, which is never sustained, achieved, now Covid zero.

The Dr. does a good job outlining why such zero goals are almost always misguided, and not possible to achieve. But zero targets aide furor to have things shutdown, further bubble packing, and trying to make life risk free, which it inherently isn't. Indeed the zero imperative is a refusal to accept reality of risks in life, and that death is the inevitable result for us all.

People can choose to live in this kind of peter pan paradise where no harm ever occurs but don't make everybody else live in your fairy tale bubblepack it safe environment. The cures can be worse than the disease as we've seen. But its critical to realize that some the underpinnings of such goal zero thinking are excuse pun, fatally flawed.
 

Nunymare

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Sep 14, 2008
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Its interesting how vision zero has impacted nearly everything in public health. Speed limits going down down down because of untenable demands to bring casualties down to zero, which will never happen. Homeless to zero, which is never sustained, achieved, now Covid zero.

The Dr. does a good job outlining why such zero goals are almost always misguided, and not possible to achieve. But zero targets aide furor to have things shutdown, further bubble packing, and trying to make life risk free, which it inherently isn't. Indeed the zero imperative is a refusal to accept reality of risks in life, and that death is the inevitable result for us all.

People can choose to live in this kind of peter pan paradise where no harm ever occurs but don't make everybody else live in your fairy tale bubblepack it safe environment. The cures can be worse than the disease as we've seen. But its critical to realize that some the underpinnings of such goal zero thinking are excuse pun, fatally flawed.
Idk. I agree that these types are untenable, but they are helpful as a theoretical target to work towards. Any progress towards such is beneficial, but we do need to begin discussions about living amongst Covid as well.
 

Drivesaitl

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Idk. I agree that these types are untenable, but they are helpful as a theoretical target to work towards. Any progress towards such is beneficial, but we do need to begin discussions about living amongst Covid as well.

Continuing this here is somewhat off topic. We could pick it up in pm sometime if you'd want. I have some enjoy the outdoors stuff to do now with the sun out and weather pretty reasonable. The temp will be zero anyway. ;)
 

LaGu

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Jan 4, 2011
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not a single country has seen an abnormal curve due to the variants despite the fear
Again, I am not sure what media fear-mongering you are looking at. UK definitely had a much higher than expected peak due to the UK variant spreading faster.

What we are seeing now, and I think it was the same in the UK in October, is that the curve in Italy and Sweden which should be comtinuing down have stopped started to turn up again. Im both places it's the chief epidimologist who are saying that this is due to the UK variant in particular (others are not very present in Europe so far).

I guess I don't get what the point is to under-sell something, even if it is because you're sick of the media over-selling it to the extreme. Variants are a concern, and they have affected / are affecting the transmission in several countries in Europe. That does not mean anyone should crap their pants, heck we've lived in lockdown from time to time since a year now. I'd just prefer to get the vaccines out as fast as possible so that in 6 months we don't have to talk about this anymore
 

LaGu

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Jan 4, 2011
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Its interesting how vision zero has impacted nearly everything in public health. Speed limits going down down down because of untenable demands to bring casualties down to zero, which will never happen. Homeless to zero, which is never sustained, achieved, now Covid zero.

The Dr. does a good job outlining why such zero goals are almost always misguided, and not possible to achieve. But zero targets aide furor to have things shutdown, further bubble packing, and trying to make life risk free, which it inherently isn't. Indeed the zero imperative is a refusal to accept reality of risks in life, and that death is the inevitable result for us all.

People can choose to live in this kind of peter pan paradise where no harm ever occurs but don't make everybody else live in your fairy tale bubblepack it safe environment. The cures can be worse than the disease as we've seen. But its critical to realize that some the underpinnings of such goal zero thinking are excuse pun, fatally flawed.
I'd add to this and say that the fact is many people have learned to live with this now. Right now we are in "yellow zone" here, so resturants, schools, shops are open. People still keep up most of (what I call) good behaviour. Distance, masks, cleaning and very important good ventilation. In private homes as well as around.

Maybe I am wearing rose colored glasses, but I kind of think that most people will take responsability to not spread any decease at this moment, even if restrictions were to be pulled back.
 

CantHaveTkachev

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Nov 30, 2004
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Again, I am not sure what media fear-mongering you are looking at. UK definitely had a much higher than expected peak due to the UK variant spreading faster.

What we are seeing now, and I think it was the same in the UK in October, is that the curve in Italy and Sweden which should be comtinuing down have stopped started to turn up again. Im both places it's the chief epidimologist who are saying that this is due to the UK variant in particular (others are not very present in Europe so far).

I guess I don't get what the point is to under-sell something, even if it is because you're sick of the media over-selling it to the extreme. Variants are a concern, and they have affected / are affecting the transmission in several countries in Europe. That does not mean anyone should crap their pants, heck we've lived in lockdown from time to time since a year now. I'd just prefer to get the vaccines out as fast as possible so that in 6 months we don't have to talk about this anymore
the UK's peak was in early January, just like Canada and the U.S
and these variants have shown no evidence of being deadlier
 

Drivesaitl

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I'd add to this and say that the fact is many people have learned to live with this now. Right now we are in "yellow zone" here, so resturants, schools, shops are open. People still keep up most of (what I call) good behaviour. Distance, masks, cleaning and very important good ventilation. In private homes as well as around.

Maybe I am wearing rose colored glasses, but I kind of think that most people will take responsability to not spread any decease at this moment, even if restrictions were to be pulled back.

Yep. The beauty of it is people can still practice their own individual level of restrictions, distancing, isolating, and allowing communities as a whole to return to semblances of normal. With vulnerable pops now being vaccinated we reach a point where the justification for restricting the whole, is drastically altered.

Personally I will still avoid travel, will avoid dining in (I would eat in outdoor patios, and even in these mild temps, and will avoid malls. But that doesn't seem necessarily a bad thing to me. I like avoiding some of these things, places anyway. heh.

Hey good news, now that the pandemic is nearly over surgical quality masks suddenly abound. London Drugs for instance in Sh Park having lots of them Certified highest standard. Picked up a pack of ten for the Walmart outings, lol.

Curad Germ Shield Medical Grade Face Mask with Ear Loop - 10s | London Drugs

These are the highest quality masks I have seen here in over a year.
 

bellagiobob

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Jul 27, 2006
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Yep. The beauty of it is people can still practice their own individual level of restrictions, distancing, isolating, and allowing communities as a whole to return to semblances of normal. With vulnerable pops now being vaccinated we reach a point where the justification for restricting the whole, is drastically altered.

Personally I will still avoid travel, will avoid dining in (I would eat in outdoor patios, and even in these mild temps, and will avoid malls. But that doesn't seem necessarily a bad thing to me. I like avoiding some of these things, places anyway. heh.

Hey good news, now that the pandemic is nearly over surgical quality masks suddenly abound. London Drugs for instance in Sh Park having lots of them Certified highest standard. Picked up a pack of ten for the Walmart outings, lol.

Curad Germ Shield Medical Grade Face Mask with Ear Loop - 10s | London Drugs

These are the highest quality masks I have seen here in over a year.

The pandemic will officially be declared over when Lysol wipes are so plentiful in stores that are once again on sale. ;)
 
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