OT: Coronavirus 3 - wait but Covid 19 is SARS-CoV-2

[MinJaBen]

FYI

Hi Everyone,
Trends are pretty much the same as I reported last time, so this will be brief. The number of recorded new cases in the US is still at a plateau (Fig. 1), while the number of tests per day continues to rise (Fig. 2), which is a good thing, though we’re nowhere near where we need to be on this. The number of new cases per test (Fig. 3), which I argued last time is a good measure of the relative number of new cases per day over time, continues to decline, which is great news. Cumulative new cases per test still fits a modified logistic growth curve extremely well (Fig. 4), and projections from the fitted curve indicate that we will reach 95% of total cases in the first wave on day 78 (17 May) (Fig. 5, red line). That’s 3 days later than my last projection, the difference being well within the margin of error. Finally, new deaths in the US seem to have plateaued (Fig. 6), though there is not yet a sign of a decline.
All things considered, pretty good news for US infections.

Fig. 1 Fig. 2

Fig. 3 Fig. 4

Fig. 5 Fig. 6
We’re seeing a similar trend in NC infections. The number of new cases recorded per day continues to rise (Fig. 7), but this seems likely to be due to an increase in the number of tests per day, since the number of new cases per test continues to decline (Fig. 8). The cumulative new cases per test fits a modified logistic growth curve vary well (Fig. 9), and the projection from that curve indicates NC should reach 95% of cases in the first wave on Day 5 (14 May), the same as in my last update.

Fig. 7 Fig. 8

Fig. 9 Fig. 10
In summary, the news seems to be good, with new cases per test falling rapidly and the end of the first wave expected around 14-20 May, based on the date for 95% cumulative cases/test. As I’ve said before, though, there will still be a substantial number of new cases after those dates, so we can’t relax social distancing yet.
Finally, passing of the first wave does not mean we’re out of the woods. As you’ve probably been hearing from the media, there’s a high chance that there will be a second wave that will hit sometime in the fall. We need to be ready for that, which among other things means a vast increase in testing and monitoring capabilities.
Take care and stay safe!

 

[Joe McGrath]

Look until they open hockey rinks in my state they’ve done nothing to improve my mental health so figure it the f*** out

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

This whole experience has made my desire for a house with a solid ground floor even stronger. I need to squat and deadlift or I will wither.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This whole experience has made my desire for a house with a solid ground floor even stronger. I need to squat and deadlift or I will wither.

The new house we are moving to this month is on a slab which would be great for a person needing to get a deadlift fix. Not so great when it comes to storage or finding a safe place when a tornado hits. Hopefully we like our neighbors across the street as they have basements.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

FYI

Still can't see the images, not sure if others can or it's just me.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Goodbye COVID-check, storm last week ripped some flashing and shingles off my roof, $850 to fix, not enough for my insurance deductible...on the bright side, it's coming out of that "free money" and not my 10% smaller paycheck

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Goodbye COVID-check, storm last week ripped some flashing and shingles off my roof, $850 to fix, not enough for my insurance deductible...on the bright side, it's coming out of that "free money" and not my 10% smaller paycheck

Are you sure that wouldn't drive a full roof shingle replacement? I have no idea how many shingles/how much flashing is damaged, but a guy down the street had the same thing happen and it was enough to cause a full roof replacement, vs. just a couple of shingles. If you haven't, you might want to have someone look at it and try to submit a claim for that. I've heard some insurance companies are more lenient than others, but can't speak from experience.

The whole roofing/insurance thing seems a bit shady/ bit of a scam to me. When storms go through, these "storm chasing" roofing companies target homes 10+ years or older, and "inspect" the roof and then work with the homeowner to submit a "storm damage" - hail or wind claim to replace the roof. They almost always ask "who's your insurance carrier" because they know which ones are more lenient than others. Clearly, they are successful more often than not, but also clearly, insurance companies take that into account when setting rates. Finding a good / reputable roofing company that isn't just trying to make a "sale" isn't always easy.

 

[The Stranger]

This whole experience has made my desire for a house with a solid ground floor even stronger. I need to squat and deadlift or I will wither.

A garage gym is a good option. Small rack, barbell, and plates.

Unfinished walk-out basement is good too, but they are few and far between in these parts.

 

[MinJaBen]

Are you sure that wouldn't drive a full roof shingle replacement? I have no idea how many shingles/how much flashing is damaged, but a guy down the street had the same thing happen and it was enough to cause a full roof replacement, vs. just a couple of shingles. If you haven't, you might want to have someone look at it and try to submit a claim for that. I've heard some insurance companies are more lenient than others, but can't speak from experience.

The whole roofing/insurance thing seems a bit shady/ bit of a scam to me. When storms go through, these "storm chasing" roofing companies target homes 10+ years or older, and "inspect" the roof and then work with the homeowner to submit a "storm damage" - hail or wind claim to replace the roof. They almost always ask "who's your insurance carrier" because they know which ones are more lenient than others. Clearly, they are successful more often than not, but also clearly, insurance companies take that into account when setting rates. Finding a good / reputable roofing company that isn't just trying to make a "sale" isn't always easy.

I had one of those companies call me last week after the last set of storms we had roll through. I told them we had no damage, but they sales person was very aggressive in trying to "assure me" that it should be looked at by their team because they can usually find something a homeowner can't see. Then I told them I had my roof replaced less than two years ago and, due to my upper floor looking down on an extensive covered porch, I am quite certain there is no damage. She was quick to let me go then.

 

[The Stranger]

Anyone care to predict what Roy Cooper does on the 8th? Extend stay-at-home or move NC into phase 1?

 

[Negan4Coach]

Goodbye COVID-check, storm last week ripped some flashing and shingles off my roof, $850 to fix, not enough for my insurance deductible...on the bright side, it's coming out of that "free money" and not my 10% smaller paycheck

So my roof kept getting jacked up like this, and kept leaking through all the patchwork, so we had our insurance company come out and inspect for a full roof replacement- which they granted us, thank God. If your roof is over a certain age and keeps taking damage they'll apparently give you the money to replace, minus the deductible.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Are you sure that wouldn't drive a full roof shingle replacement? I have no idea how many shingles/how much flashing is damaged, but a guy down the street had the same thing happen and it was enough to cause a full roof replacement, vs. just a couple of shingles. If you haven't, you might want to have someone look at it and try to submit a claim for that. I've heard some insurance companies are more lenient than others, but can't speak from experience.

The whole roofing/insurance thing seems a bit shady/ bit of a scam to me. When storms go through, these "storm chasing" roofing companies target homes 10+ years or older, and "inspect" the roof and then work with the homeowner to submit a "storm damage" - hail or wind claim to replace the roof. They almost always ask "who's your insurance carrier" because they know which ones are more lenient than others. Clearly, they are successful more often than not, but also clearly, insurance companies take that into account when setting rates. Finding a good / reputable roofing company that isn't just trying to make a "sale" isn't always easy.

So my roof kept getting jacked up like this, and kept leaking through all the patchwork, so we had our insurance company come out and inspect for a full roof replacement- which they granted us, thank God. If your roof is over a certain age and keeps taking damage they'll apparently give you the money to replace, minus the deductible.

I know I'm only a few years off from having to do a full roof replacement, the current one is at 19 years. That said, I don't have any leaking (that I know of...at least nothing leaking through to my ceiling), the folks I contacted have worked on several homes in the neighborhood, they're a local company, and have gotten good reviews. Aside from replacing the couple missing shingles and flashing, they're also going to hammer down a few loose shingles and do some general inspection and roof maintenance for me since they have a minimum labor charge and the fixes alone would basically leave me paying for unused time/labor. I guess if I'm "lucky", a storm will roll through that does enough damage that insurance will replace it (my neighbor next door had that happen last year so just out-of-pocket deductible), otherwise it'll all be out of my pocket when the time rolls around.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

A garage gym is a good option. Small rack, barbell, and plates.

Unfinished walk-out basement is good too, but they are few and far between in these parts.

We are planning to buy in a year or two, an unfinished or concrete floor basement is high on my list. Prefer a temperature controlled room, both for general comfort and equipment lifespan.

If we don't have a space for it in our first place I may build a gym in a storage unit. Tired of public gyms, and want to start buying my own equipment.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Anyone care to predict what Roy Cooper does on the 8th? Extend stay-at-home or move NC into phase 1?

EDIT: TLDR version below. My guess is he goes to phase 1 based on what I showed below, provided nothing bad happens in the next 3 days. There's still uncertainty in #3 I listed below though.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Doesn't it depend strictly on the data? My understanding is that there were 4 criteria.

1) Trajectory of hospitalizations over 14 days
2) Trajectory of positive tests as a % of total test over 14 days
3) Trajectory of cases over 14 days
4) Trajectory of Covid like syndromic cases over 14 days.

Looking at the charts below, I think 1, 2 and 4 are met, but not sure on #3. If I had to guess though, I think #2 is a better metric than #3 so I'm going to predict he'll go to phase 1 unless something drastic happens in the next 3 days. I could be way off base here, but that's my read on it.

For #1, here is a chart, but it can be misleading since I believe his is not NEW hospitalizations, but total so I think the number of new ones is on a downward or at very least flat trajectory. This one is probably met.

For #2, I think it's clearly met.

For #3, I don't think the data shows a downward trajectory over 14 days. This can be misleading though as it's reported by when the test was analyzed, not when it's taken. The problem with doing a trend on when it's taken is that many of those haven't been analyzed. I think tests as a % of total take is a better metric. I'm not sure what rolling average or fit the dashed line is though, but I don't see a downward trajectory for 14 days so I don't think this is met.

For #4, I think this shows a downward trend for 14 days even with the little uptick at the end. I think this one is met unless data in the last week+ shows it moving back up as this chart is 4/28.

 

[MinJaBen]

EDIT: TLDR version below. My guess is he goes to phase 1 based on what I showed below, provided nothing bad happens in the next 3 days. There's still uncertainty in #3 I listed below though.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Doesn't it depend strictly on the data? My understanding is that there were 4 criteria.

1) Trajectory of hospitalizations over 14 days
2) Trajectory of positive tests as a % of total test over 14 days
3) Trajectory of cases over 14 days
4) Trajectory of Covid like syndromic cases over 14 days.

Looking at the charts below, I think 1, 2 and 4 are met, but not sure on #3. If I had to guess though, I think #2 is a better metric than #3 so I'm going to predict he'll go to phase 1 unless something drastic happens in the next 3 days. I could be way off base here, but that's my read on it.

For #1, here is a chart, but it can be misleading since I believe his is not NEW hospitalizations, but total so I think the number of new ones is on a downward or at very least flat trajectory. This one is probably met.

For #2, I think it's clearly met.

For #3, I don't think the data shows a downward trajectory over 14 days. This can be misleading though as it's reported by when the test was analyzed, not when it's taken. The problem with doing a trend on when it's taken is that many of those haven't been analyzed. I think tests as a % of total take is a better metric. I'm not sure what rolling average or fit the dashed line is though, but I don't see a downward trajectory for 14 days so I don't think this is met.

For #4, I think this shows a downward trend for 14 days even with the little uptick at the end. I think this one is met unless data in the last week+ shows it moving back up as this chart is 4/28.

I'm skeptical that criterion number two is telling us what we think it is telling us. Yes, the number of positive tests as a percentage of total tests is going down. But if testing is ramping up, as we know it is, then that means the standard of who is able to get tested is probably being relaxed compared to who was being tested previously. That should then drive the percentage of positive test results down even if the population of COVID-19 positives in the community is unchanging compared to before. My opinion is that the relaxation of restrictions should be directly tied to hospital capacity to treat the serious cases.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm skeptical that criterion number two is telling us what we think it is telling us. Yes, the number of positive tests as a percentage of total tests is going down. But if testing is ramping up, as we know it is, then that means the standard of who is able to get tested is probably being relaxed compared to who was being tested previously. That should then drive the percentage of positive test results down even if the population of COVID-19 positives in the community is unchanging compared to before. My opinion is that the relaxation of restrictions should be directly tied to hospital capacity to treat the serious cases.

That's a fair point, but the moving average (dashed line) of # of tests reported is pretty flat actually for the last 10-14 days so I don't think it's simply a case of "doing more tests" (see below). This doesn't account for "who" is being tested though which could skew statistics.

And while we may be "doing more tests", we aren't getting much increase in lab reporting of those tests over the past 2 weeks, at least not as much as I expected.

EDIT: Ideally you'd want this chart to have a x-axis of when the test was taken, but unfortunately, due to the delay in labs processing the test, the newest data would always look falsely better, unless they just excluded any test that hasn't been processed yet, but then the sample sizes go way down.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

As a follow on....here's the raw numbers chart of confirmed cases by when the test was taken which shows newer data isn't yet processed in the lab. Interestingly enough, looks like we don't give many tests on the weekend as the numbers drop way down during weekends.

 

[The Stranger]

Phase 1 it is.

 

[Lempo]

The new house we are moving to this month is on a slab which would be great for a person needing to get a deadlift fix. Not so great when it comes to storage or finding a safe place when a tornado hits. Hopefully we like our neighbors across the street as they have basements.

More than that, hopefully they like you.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

More than that, hopefully they like you.

As long as they like my wife, I should be fine.

 

[WreckingCrew]

As long as they like my wife, I should be fine.

But is she hot? (am I doing this right?)

 

[hblueridgegal]

The Rise of Sanitised Travel
Our latest report called “The Rise of Sanitised Travel” details over 70 different areas in the passenger journey that are expected to either change or to be introduced from scratch, to restore confidence in flying after COVID-19. We have accompanied it by an infographic highlighting some of the most important touch-points.

 

[MinJaBen]

Hopefully this doesn’t set back the vaccine timetable.

More Contagious Strain than Original

 

[Canes]

Hopefully this doesn’t set back the vaccine timetable.

More Contagious Strain than Original

Assuming a vaccine can be developed. It's a hard thing to put a time table on. I've read some scientists aren't so sure if we can ever develop one in the first place which is sort of scary.

But I still gotta try to remain positive that we will for my sanity.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

4 hours early to get on a flight from RDU to ATL. Lord. World’s going crazy.