OT: Coronavirus 3 - wait but Covid 19 is SARS-CoV-2

Discussion in 'Carolina Hurricanes' started by DaveG, Apr 27, 2020.

  1. DaveG Noted Jerk

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    Last thread is well over 1000, so taking this here.

    So, and just speculation on my part here as I'm not a virologist, but the big thing with the common cold is that it's caused by a multitude of viruses. Rhinovirus strains are the most common but the big reason it's basically impossible to create a vaccine for is that there are any number of viruses that could cause it to begin with.

    What gives me some hope with Covid 19 is that Covid is related to SARS which, aside from accidental exposures in a laboratory setting, there have been no reported cases of since 2004. That virus was far easier to control since it was far more deadly and immediately obvious when someone had it. What gives me hope is that after SARS burnt out that was basically it, it's done with.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2020
  2. Boom Boom Apathy Eat cookies, get fat, watch from the couch

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    They do track flu like they are tracking Covid 19, but they have years and years of experience doing it so the data is more reliable and because it's not novel, it doesn't get press. Also, re: your bold, the CDC data shows that is not the case (as it relates to the flu) and there are a few reasons that contribute to it.

    1) Flu is a "winter" virus that typically peaks in Jan/Feb and starts to really tail off after that. It's been on a downswing as COVID19 hit. April and May have never been a high flu season, regardless of how bad of a season it is.
    2) The Flu isn't as transmissible as COVID19, so the "shelter in place" to slow the spread of Covid19, also has a big impact on driving the rate of flu infections down, since it's even less transmissible.
    3) The Flu gets a lot of transmission in school and with school's closed, the transmission of flu is decreased.

    So it's already past peaks season, it's less transmissible, and "shelter in place" reduces the spread even more. Other than 17/18 which was a really bad flu season, this season has been pretty typical so I don't think there is any data to support that there is a lot more people out there with it.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2020
  3. WreckingCrew Registered User

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    Appreciate the data, I didn't know they had that out there as well. And guess I should have specified I didn't mean currently active cases (like you said, flu is more winter season), but was curious about the raw numbers over the course of a single season and how comparable they are. Do they have worldwide numbers as well or is that just USA statistics?

    I think the main difference in the spread is COVID can go 2 weeks of no symptoms and still be spread, flu is a much shorter period and usually presents symptoms quickly. That said, it spreads through my office like wildfire pretty much annually...over the course of the season probably 60% end up with it. Of course we also don't know any official mortality rates of COVID either compared to flu because we haven't gotten to the point of being able to test everyone...reports seem to be surfacing now that drastically more people have had it (symptom free) than previously thought, which would greatly reduce the mortality rate (of course at a greatly increased transmissibility rate)
     
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  4. Boom Boom Apathy Eat cookies, get fat, watch from the couch

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    No idea how other countries track it (or don't track it). This season was at the upper end of the distribution but not nearly as bad as 2017/18 and very similar to 14/15, 16/17, and 18/19 in terms of cumulative rate. Here's the last 10 years.

    [​IMG]

    They also track deaths, hospitalizations, deaths, etc... like they do with Covid.
     
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  5. Navin R Slavin The Artist Formerly Known as Hank Sponsor

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    Right, and not only that, but colds are minor annoyances. The return on investment to chase down a vaccine for every rhinovirus out there is just not there. (As yet; if Moderna can actually get there with their mRNA-based vaccine platform, and bring the cost of development down for vaccines across the board, the cost/benefit analysis might change.)
     
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  6. MinJaBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    FYI.

    Edit: Seems my copy and paste is not visible to everyone. I'll just post the images below if possible.

    Fig 1:

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2020
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  7. Anton Dubinchuk aho Sponsor

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    Where and who is this from?
     
  8. MinJaBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    A professor in the biology department at Duke.
     
  9. Unsustainable Bunch of Jerks

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    I’m not going back through the pages, but this self isolation has spiked suicides.

    Some areas where response on suicide of 1 per week is now around 5 per day in one report I heard.
     
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  10. Boom Boom Apathy Eat cookies, get fat, watch from the couch

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    Is there a verified news source for this? I've seen reports expecting suicide rates to increase and it stands to reason that more depression due to people losing jobs, recession, isolation, etc....could lead to more suicides, but I'd like to see verified data. I did a quick google search and didn't see it. I'm not disputing it hasn't increased as I expect it would, just would like to see the data.

    I've also read that traffic fatalities are down, which makes sense with less traffic and that has been reported through various news sources (although my friends in Minnesota have said they are bucking the trend and they've gone up in Minnesota).

    Here's one example: SC traffic-related deaths down in 2020
     
  11. Boom Boom Apathy Eat cookies, get fat, watch from the couch

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    Thanks @MinJaBen , I enjoy reading those even without the graphs.

    I saw the New Zealand story this morning on the news, unfortunately the reporter compared it to Singapore just because the two have a similar population, yet she ignored some major differences.

    1) New Zealand is pretty sparsely populated with roughly 18 people / sq. km, vs 8,000 / sq. km in Singapore. This is an immensely different scenario when it comes to a highly transmissible virus.
    2) New Zealand, as an island to itself. Singapore, while technically an island, borders Malaysia with roads into and out of Singapore from Malaysia. It's also has other countries in close distance to it. Many more people were coming into Singapore (and probably still do) before the virus was probably even detected.
    3) New Zealand is not a major seaport, Singapore is the 2nd (or 3rd depending on which year) seaport in the world. There is a constant influx into Singapore and very likely was before the virus was even detected.
    4) Much of the labor into Singapore, even for critical/essential activities come from Malaysia. They have ~1 million migrant workers in Singapore and a bunch of transient workers that the country relies upon.

    While they have a similar population, the two scenarios are vastly different. Not discounting what New Zealand did to stop the spread though, just that it had some advantages in terms of isolation and population density.
     
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  12. MinJaBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    Can you not see the graphs? I see them when I paste and see the post, but maybe that is because I am doing it.
     
  13. Anton Dubinchuk aho Sponsor

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    It is interesting and both explanations make sense. If the "real" curve is indeed moving steadily downward, but we are also increasing testing at a commensurate rate, it makes sense that it would look "steady", with the explanation being that we learn more and more of the real magnitude of this each day. At the same time, the fact that the country is essentially 50 little mini countries each with their own curves makes sense as well, peaks that don't match up result in a longer than normal plateau.
     
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  14. Boom Boom Apathy Eat cookies, get fat, watch from the couch

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    Maybe it's just me, but I just see [​IMG]
     
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  15. Anton Dubinchuk aho Sponsor

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    Same
     
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  16. MinJaBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    I just edited my original post to include the first image. Do you see that now?
     
  17. The Stranger Registered User

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    This site shows overall tests in the US (as well as other countries) over time. You can see the totals day to day and it's clear the tests/day rate in the US is increasing.

    In NC, the reopen plan document shows "Trajectory % of Tests that are Positive" through April 21st. Look at the data and judge for yourself. BTW, if anyone knows where they may be providing updated versions of this, please post it.

    Finally, if you look at the Federal Government Guidelines and the gate criteria, it's actually:

    1) "Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period"
    or
    2) "Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)"
     
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  18. Boom Boom Apathy Eat cookies, get fat, watch from the couch

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    No.
     
  19. Unsustainable Bunch of Jerks

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    yeah I heard that too, that cars accidents are way down.

    More People Died From Suicide Than Coronavirus In Tennessee This Week

    Back during the start of this, Knoxville TN had a spike in suicides.
     
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  20. Boom Boom Apathy Eat cookies, get fat, watch from the couch

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    I saw that, but it's 9 deaths in 1 particular spot. Not that it's good, but it's a very small sample size. Also, it's the Federalist reporting it, who have been denouncing social distancing measures from day 1, and have been accursed if reporting misleading or false information, so they aren't exactly unbiased here.

    I'd like to see some sources that are saying there is now 5 / day when it was 1/week before more broadly. Or national statistics that show a big uptick. Again, it makes sense that it might increase and I'm not disputing it is, I just like real data from more verified, even official sources.

    EDIT: Unfortunately, I think reporting like that is going to be hard to come by. CDC says the US has about 48,000 Suicides deaths / year (and the rate has been increasing year over year). Last data I see from CDC is 2018 though.
     
  21. Unsustainable Bunch of Jerks

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    Suicide, drug abuse and domestic violence are on the rise due to coronavirus quarantine measures

    In contrast, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 47,173 Americans died by suicide in 2017. Considering expected economic decline, there could be an additional 1,500 to 5,000 suicide deaths a year going forward, Dunn said.

    not finding much on sources, other than the other one I posted.
     
  22. Boom Boom Apathy Eat cookies, get fat, watch from the couch

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    Yeah, I saw the one saying "There "could" be additional deaths, which makes sense, I just hadn't see data that shows that we are seeing that yet. It's a valid concern though. The data shows that suicides have been increasing at a rate of 3.5-4% per year (without the Covid19) the prior 5 years and the last data I could find is 2018 with 48,455 nation wide so if it continues at the same rate, I'd expect somewhere around 52,000 for 2020 (give or take) and some areas (Detroit for instance, reported that deaths were up prior to Covid19 even being known about).

    Looks like the CDC doesn't release prior year numbers until June of the following year, so we won't know for sure about 2020 for a while. This is an alarming trend even without covid19.

    U.S. Suicide Rates Are the Highest They've Been Since World War II
     
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  23. Boom Boom Apathy Eat cookies, get fat, watch from the couch

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    From WRAL:

    One of three mothers who said they started the ReOpenNC protest has tested positive for COVID-19. She said she was in a two week quarantine that ended Sunday and was asymptomatic.
    It's unclear if she attended the protest last week, which drew hundreds downtown, since was was under quarantine.


    "As an asymptomatic COVID19 positive patient (quarantine ends 4/26) another concern I have is the treatment of COVID patients as it relates to other communicable diseases. I have been forced to quarantine in my home for 2 weeks," she wrote on her social media page.


    "I have been told not to participate in public or private accommodations as requested by the government, and therefore denied my 1st amendment right of freedom of religion," she wrote.

     
  24. MrazeksVengeance VENGEANCE

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    Stuff is slowly opening here.
    On a personal note, one of my big exams is getting close, one of the heads of the department commended my thoroughness when taking history and nurses absolutely adore the fact that I can do ECG. (We are taught like 7 times to read it over the course of our studies, but we rarely get to play with the machine itself.)
     
  25. WreckingCrew Registered User

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    ...wait...what?

    [​IMG]
     
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