Coping with Covid-19 - Discussion continued as social distancing in effect.

[Pookie]

always with the cute videos of edited clips. Sigh. This is a context-free zone people! I'd happily discuss each quote with you.
You can keep citing people that make you look silly all you want. I'm just advising you don't It hasn't gone well for you. I'm here to help

The video highlights quotes and a timeline. Let’s not pretend that it’s off the mark.

@4thline has the hammer on the nail here.

Trump has absolutely dismissed the severity of the virus early on and that influenced both policy and public attitudes towards it.

His talk of opening up the USA by Easter is equally socially irresponsible.

 

[Confucius]

The sad thing about this whole thing to me is how so many don't listen. They keep telling everyone to stay home and go out only if necessary. Thanks to people not listening they have closed all the parks in my area as well as the Bruce trail.

well what use were the parks to you anyway if you were planning on just staying at home?

 

[thewave]

Hospitalization rate according to the British study is 4.4% for those showing symptoms. There is data from China that show 50% who have the virus are asymptomatic. Lets assume for a moment that Canada has 100% of the 30 million population are infected by the disease. Half or 15 million would be symptomatic and 660,000 (at 4.4%) would require hospitalization. We do not have enough hospital beds in this country manage this level of infection (estimated hospital beds across the country is 2.0 per 1,000 people or ~60,000 beds).

Our policy of social distancing and self isolation is not designed to stop the spread but to slow it down sufficiently that we do not overwhelm our hospitals and health care workers.

The spread of this virus is inevitable. We just need to slow it down enough so we can treat all that are sick. We do not want a situation such as Italy where people are dying at rate of 600-700 per day because they just do not have the capacity to treat everyone.

I get the point, I understand what we are doing. I am not even complaining. I think we should have focused on the at risk groups and isolating them then destroying the economy. Way more worries about suicides and mental health issues etc at this point. I had supplies enough that I don't need to go to the store all the time since the start of FEB. I was ready as soon as the vids got leaked from Wuhan and started limiting human interaction around valentines day. I'm way ahead of the curve that way but if it gets to FORCED lockdown, I know people will start to go nuts, always happens like that.

 

[Leafs1991]

well what use were the parks to you anyway if you were planning on just staying at home?

If he's sad about it, he probably still goes hiking there.

 

[Jojalu]

I get the point, I understand what we are doing. I am not even complaining. I think we should have focused on the at risk groups and isolating them then destroying the economy. Way more worries about suicides and mental health issues etc at this point. I had supplies enough that I don't need to go to the store all the time since the start of FEB. I was ready as soon as the vids got leaked from Wuhan and started limiting human interaction around valentines day. I'm way ahead of the curve that way but if it gets to FORCED lockdown, I know people will start to go nuts, always happens like that.

C'mon. Still. The economy always comes back. Lives dont

 

[thewave]

C'mon. Still. The economy always comes back. Lives dont

You keep missing the point. 7 million Americans died during the Great Depression and that's when there were under 200m Americans. Maybe you can handle 3.7million Canadians dead from the other economic related impacts.

 

[Jojalu]

You keep missing the point. 7 million Americans died during the Great Depression and that's when there were under 200m Americans. Maybe you can handle 3.7million Canadians dead from the other economic related impacts.

I am not missing the point. I understand 100% the ramifications of what is going on. We have better medicine now. We have more altruistic people that will lend a hand. We have a government who will pitch in.

You can't compare the 20's to today's world. We care if someone loses their life and are not driven by selfish ambitions.

We know that our forefathers faught and died for the freedoms we have and will gladly sacrifice those freedoms to save someone else and honour their memory

 

[Petrus]

You keep missing the point. 7 million Americans died during the Great Depression and that's when there were under 200m Americans. Maybe you can handle 3.7million Canadians dead from the other economic related impacts.

This is an honest question: Is there actual studies that illustrate recessions increases mortality rates.

I have worked with actuaries my entire career and I have never seen any study or hear actuaries speak about this. What the numbers have shown are increases in incidence of disability but not mortality rates.

 

[tokyoite]

no hockey boring yawn

 

[Bomber0104]

Hospitalization rate according to the British study is 4.4% for those showing symptoms. There is data from China that show 50% who have the virus are asymptomatic. Lets assume for a moment that Canada has 100% of the 30 million population are infected by the disease. Half or 15 million would be symptomatic and 660,000 (at 4.4%) would require hospitalization. We do not have enough hospital beds in this country manage this level of infection (estimated hospital beds across the country is 2.0 per 1,000 people or ~60,000 beds).

Our policy of social distancing and self isolation is not designed to stop the spread but to slow it down sufficiently that we do not overwhelm our hospitals and health care workers.

The spread of this virus is inevitable. We just need to slow it down enough so we can treat all that are sick. We do not want a situation such as Italy where people are dying at rate of 600-700 per day because they just do not have the capacity to treat everyone.

Excellent post.

 

[Pookie]

This is an honest question: Is there actual studies that illustrate recessions increases mortality rates.

I have worked with actuaries my entire career and I have never seen any study or hear actuaries speak about this. What the numbers have shown are increases in incidence of disability but not mortality rates.

Yes.

The Great Recession, unemployment and suicide

However, it’s not as simple as recession+ unemployment = suicide. Countries with strong social safety nets do not see the rise.

A country like the USA, in which you lose your health insurance if you lose your job.... not to mention the concept of “employment at will” impacting any severance... invariably will suffer higher rates.

It’s not the recession itself... it’s that their society hasn’t built a safety net and they believe it’s the unemployed’s fault for their situation.

 

[IPS]

This fella does a good job explaining things for the folks who aren't in the know

 

[Kiwi]

I am not missing the point. I understand 100% the ramifications of what is going on. We have better medicine now. We have more altruistic people that will lend a hand. We have a government who will pitch in.

You can't compare the 20's to today's world. We care if someone loses their life and are not driven by selfish ambitions.

We know that our forefathers faught and died for the freedoms we have and will gladly sacrifice those freedoms to save someone else and honour their memory

If you don't have a functioning economy who is buying government debt to fund those social safety nets and how many people will have the money or goods to give to the less fortunate?

I appreciate you belief in the goodness of humanity but I'm a little less positive

Their are very few people alive that can remember the last great depression and history would suggest things get politically extreme with some extremely unpleasant outcomes because of it

I'd much prefer your right but human history suggests your being extremely optimistic

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

This is an honest question: Is there actual studies that illustrate recessions increases mortality rates.

I have worked with actuaries my entire career and I have never seen any study or hear actuaries speak about this. What the numbers have shown are increases in incidence of disability but not mortality rates.

Every study I have read so far shows the opposite to what he is saying, including ones analyzing 100 years of data. Suicide rates go up but they are more than offset by other mortality rates going down.

 

[Jojalu]

If you don't have a functioning economy who is buying government debt to fund those social safety nets and how many people will have the money or goods to give to the less fortunate?

I appreciate you belief in the goodness of humanity but I'm a little less positive

Their are very few people alive that can remember the last great depression and history would suggest things get politically extreme with some extremely unpleasant outcomes because of it

I'd much prefer your right but human history suggests your being extremely optimistic

As always I appreciate your point of view. I know I am being an idealist.

I do however believe that for this fight, there are more of us who can remember our fathers or grandfathers stories of how awful it was. I will choose and I hope others follow to fight for them and fight for our children and our friends and families children.

We cannot give up our humanity. We can't let tyrants dictate how we choose to act in these time. A character of aman can be measured in how he handles a crisis.

I choose to fight for all of us. I choose to fight for you, an unknown face who I sometimes chat with on a platform. I hope more make the same decision

 

[Kiwi]

As always I appreciate your point of view. I know I am being an idealist.

I do however believe that for this fight, there are more of us who can remember our fathers or grandfathers stories of how awful it was. I will choose and I hope others follow to fight for them and fight for our children and our friends and families children.

We cannot give up our humanity. We can't let tyrants dictate how we choose to act in these time. A character of aman can be measured in how he handles a crisis.

I choose to fight for all of us. I choose to fight for you, an unknown face who I sometimes chat with on a platform. I hope more make the same decision

Nice sentiment, I'd like that to
Here's hoping if we do get some economic hard times

 

[thewave]

Every study I have read so far shows the opposite to what he is saying, including ones analyzing 100 years of data. Suicide rates go up but they are more than offset by other mortality rates going down.

Depressions and Recessions are linked to all major wars and revolutions. The cost of political and financial instability causes deaths in the millions. If the US is a dying empire because of this, it will do all that it can to stop that from becoming a reality. Always been the way of the world but I suppose we can discount all the actual supporting facts and the increased crime rates, medicines, the stopping of Spanish Flu and TB etc. Sure you can carve it up nice but then you have these nuggets...

Great Depression - Rise of Nazism WW2
Recession of 1913 - WWI
1860 Recession - American Civil War

The Century of Wars
The 1700s were a rough time for investors. Periodic wars between England, France, the Netherlands and rest of the world imposed losses on shareholders. The Nine Years’ War (1688-1697), the War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714), the Seven Years’ War (1754-1763), the American Revolutionary War (1775-1783) and the French Revolutionary War (1792-1802) created bear markets investors could not avoid.
The Century of War: Bear Markets in the 1700s - Global Financial Data

I could go on and on and the deaths are in the millions. Yes, millions. Without political and financial stability, the world descends into chaos quick.

 

[Bomber0104]

As always I appreciate your point of view. I know I am being an idealist.

I do however believe that for this fight, there are more of us who can remember our fathers or grandfathers stories of how awful it was. I will choose and I hope others follow to fight for them and fight for our children and our friends and families children.

We cannot give up our humanity. We can't let tyrants dictate how we choose to act in these time. A character of aman can be measured in how he handles a crisis.

I choose to fight for all of us. I choose to fight for you, an unknown face who I sometimes chat with on a platform. I hope more make the same decision

You don't need to "fight" for anyone.

What you (and anyone else feeling the itch for political revolution) need to do is just stay home, relax, find a healthy pastime or two, and get off message boards entirely.

There's a time for BS talk like this and right now isn't it.

 

[Petrus]

Depressions and Recessions are linked to all major wars and revolutions. The cost of political and financial instability causes deaths in the millions. If the US is a dying empire because of this, it will do all that it can to stop that from becoming a reality. Always been the way of the world but I suppose we can discount all the actual supporting facts and the increased crime rates, medicines, the stopping of Spanish Flu and TB etc. Sure you can carve it up nice but then you have these nuggets...

Great Depression - Rise of Nazism WW2
Recession of 1913 - WWI
1860 Recession - American Civil War

The Century of Wars
The 1700s were a rough time for investors. Periodic wars between England, France, the Netherlands and rest of the world imposed losses on shareholders. The Nine Years’ War (1688-1697), the War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714), the Seven Years’ War (1754-1763), the American Revolutionary War (1775-1783) and the French Revolutionary War (1792-1802) created bear markets investors could not avoid.
The Century of War: Bear Markets in the 1700s - Global Financial Data

I could go on and on and the deaths are in the millions. Yes, millions. Without political and financial stability, the world descends into chaos quick.

Deaths from Covid19 may well be our modern day version of Archduke Franz Ferdinand

But war between China and the US will be waged not because of the instability caused by Covid19; War will be waged because China has been challenging US global hegemony since the fall of the Soviet Union.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Depressions and Recessions are linked to all major wars and revolutions. The cost of political and financial instability causes deaths in the millions. If the US is a dying empire because of this, it will do all that it can to stop that from becoming a reality. Always been the way of the world but I suppose we can discount all the actual supporting facts and the increased crime rates, medicines, the stopping of Spanish Flu and TB etc. Sure you can carve it up nice but then you have these nuggets...

Great Depression - Rise of Nazism WW2
Recession of 1913 - WWI
1860 Recession - American Civil War

The Century of Wars
The 1700s were a rough time for investors. Periodic wars between England, France, the Netherlands and rest of the world imposed losses on shareholders. The Nine Years’ War (1688-1697), the War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714), the Seven Years’ War (1754-1763), the American Revolutionary War (1775-1783) and the French Revolutionary War (1792-1802) created bear markets investors could not avoid.
The Century of War: Bear Markets in the 1700s - Global Financial Data

I could go on and on and the deaths are in the millions. Yes, millions. Without political and financial stability, the world descends into chaos quick.

Again, every study I have read (roughly ten) shows the opposite of what you are saying. It doesn't matter how long you write, it matters the substance within it. Rather than write a lot, link to the actual studies. No doubt if you are counting world wars, numbers will vary but then you are just opening debate on what was or wasn't the cause of a war.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

It just occurred to me there' another giant ramification of this virus: get used to this as the new normal for all future viral outbreaks regardless of how severe they are. Our governments were slow to react to this emergency and there will be a lot of blame to go around. The next SARS, MERS or H1N1 that comes along will trigger a complete overreaction because politicians won't want to be the ones responsible for underestimating the next real severe outbreak even though none of those viruses warranted this.

So get ready for travel restrictions, stock market runs and mass layoffs every few years folks.

 

[Pookie]

It just occurred to me there' another giant ramification of this virus: get used to this as the new normal for all future viral outbreaks regardless of how severe they are. Our governments were slow to react to this emergency and there will be a lot of blame to go around. The next SARS, MERS or H1N1 that comes along will trigger a complete overreaction because politicians won't want to be the ones responsible for underestimating the next real severe outbreak even though none of those viruses warranted this.

So get ready for travel restrictions, stock market runs and mass layoffs every few years folks.

Perhaps but part of the response to future viruses will be based on how they are transmitted.

For example:

With SARS, it is more contagious than COVID-19 but is only spread once symptoms present. Therefore, easier to contain.

COVID-19 is so challenging because it can be spread before any symptoms show up.

Ebola is horrendous but is generally spread through contain with infected blood, vomit and feces. Therefore, easier to contain in the general population.

Transmission is a big part of containment strategy for this and future viruses.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Perhaps but part of the response to future viruses will be based on how they are transmitted.

For example:

With SARS, it is more contagious than COVID-19 but is only spread once symptoms present. Therefore, easier to contain.

COVID-19 is so challenging because it can be spread before any symptoms show up.

Ebola is horrendous but is generally spread through contain with infected blood, vomit and feces. Therefore, easier to contain in the general population.

Transmission is a big part of containment strategy for this and future viruses.

All true. I'm just saying our leaders next time will overreact before finding this out.

 

[Lauro]

All true. I'm just saying our leaders next time will overreact before finding this out.

Or they learn from the current situation, like they did in East Asia from SARS and MERS, and are much better prepared.

 

[Pookie]

All true. I'm just saying our leaders next time will overreact before finding this out.

Well, my hope is the provinces consider the supply chain and re-evaluate their inventory positions on critical medical supplies.

Nursing home protocols also need focus.

There’s a decent system in Canada but it can always be improved.