Prospect Info: Cole Caufield (Part 10)

[DAChampion]

yet Suzuki didn't play a single minute in the AHL.

He played two years in the CHL.

 

[417]

Nothing would be different. The idea that if he had only played in an inferior league, with inferior players / inferior facilities / inferior trainers, he would be farther ahead is ridiculous. As if 2 more years in Finland magically transforms him into a high performing 20yo in the NHL.

Pure fantasy.

Bottom line is he is going through an incredibly tough stretch. It happens, to ALL players. Prior to this stretch, he looked right on track. Was great in the playins, and great to start the year. Which indicates he dev was / is on track.

Suzuki just came out of a similar stretch and last 7 games looks like a world beater. Common sense says KK will emerge in similar fashion.

Couldn't agree more...sometimes I get the impression that people think the AHL is some magic processor where if Prospect A plays X amount of games it equates to automatic NHL success.

For me...with Jesperi Kotkaniemi, I just don't see a coaching staff committed to making him part of the success of the team.

I see it with Suzuki and we can see those results are paying off.

Until that becomes true with Kotkaniemi, his evaluation remains incomplete for me. I still see a lot of projectability but at some point, you've got to create the same room for him to grow as they did with Suzuki.

 

[417]

He played two years in the CHL.

And Kotkaniemi played 1 full year of professional hockey before coming to North America.

You presumption was that Kotkaniemi would be a 2 way 70pt center today had he played in Finland/AHL.

And you pointed to Suzuki as an example...but again, Suzuki didn't play in the AHL.

So i'm not sure why you're pointing out that he played 2 years in the CHL unless your premise is that Kotkaniemi would be a better player today had he played in the CHL.

 

[SOLR]

Again...I think the reputation you're giving Holland stems from the late 90s and early-to-mid 2000s.

I don't think it applies today. I think you need to look at the Detroit Red Wings drafting between 2010 to 2018. It's really not all that impressive.

Drafting. You are confusing the team's performance with the development performance.

It applies today:

Most teams would have traded pool party. The reason he's become a productive player is 100% on Holland making the courageous call of keeping him and holding on.

Not rushing Bouchard, not rushing McCleod, etc.

There is a bigger financial incentive to rush players today, it doesn't mean it is the right thing for the player.

 

[abo9]

At inferior levels - which as we all know, is far from a guarantee to be repeated in the NHL.

Especially when the conditions (playing big minutes) aren't replicated at the NHL level.

You can't expect a flower to grow if it gets no water and no sun.

Idk if he would be a 70 pts rookie, but what impressed me from Kotkaniemi at 18 was his overall confidence with the puck. Since then, it seems like it's gone downhill and to me, is the single biggest issue with his play. Without confidence everything else crumbles.

We obviously don't know what could have happened, but let him learn to dominate Finland, then play another year in the AHL to acclimate to the North American style of play. During those 2 years, Montreal should have gave him pointers as to what they want him to work on (faceoff, skating, defensive game, whatever you want). It's inferior competition, but that's perfect because he can still dominate while polishing his game, instead of each mistake being costly and resulting in benching.

After those 2-3 years, I think you get a more confident, more polished, physically mature Kotkaniemi knocking at the doors of the NHL instead of a raw, scrawny (by NHL standards) 18 years old that makes mistake the coach doesn't want to see in the NHL.

Is he automatically a 70 pts center? I don't think so, but pretty much everyone knew he was rushed. Why not give him the best chances at success?

 

[417]

Drafting. You are confusing the team's performance with the development performance.

It applies today:

Most teams would have traded pool party. The reason he's become a productive player is 100% on Holland making the courageous call of keeping him and holding on.

Not rushing Bouchard, not rushing McCleod, etc.

There is a bigger financial incentive to rush players today, it doesn't mean it is the right thing for the player.

Or maybe the fact that he plays with 2 of the best players in the world also has a big impact? It's not like his numbers are through the roof, he's trending where a top 5 pick should be trending.

 

[417]

Idk if he would be a 70 pts rookie, but what impressed me from Kotkaniemi at 18 was his overall confidence with the puck. Since then, it seems like it's gone downhill and to me, is the single biggest issue with his play. Without confidence everything else crumbles.

Agreed - but I think that's largely a result of a coaching staff who inexplicably decided after about 60 games of his rookie season that he wasn't as ready as they thought he was (even though his performance/results said otherwise).

They've been sheltering him for 3yrs...at a certain point, you've got to take the kid gloves off.

We obviously don't know what could have happened, but let him learn to dominate Finland, then play another year in the AHL to acclimate to the North American style of play. During those 2 years, Montreal should have gave him pointers as to what they want him to work on (faceoff, skating, defensive game, whatever you want). It's inferior competition, but that's perfect because he can still dominate while polishing his game, instead of each mistake being costly and resulting in benching.

To me, this sounds more like the issue is with impatient fans/media who want to see immediate results and aren't ready to watch a kid learn and develop on the job. Because he can work on these aspects in the NHL.

It's a complete myth that the NHL is not a development league...of course it is.

What we're seeing from Kotkaniemi right now, is a part of development.

The problem is fans don't want to see players struggle, they want instant results. In the AHL it's easier to get results and it reassures fans that the development process is going well (see Ryan Poehling), but the NHL is a whole other story.

After those 2-3 years, I think you get a more confident, more polished, physically mature Kotkaniemi knocking at the doors of the NHL instead of a raw, scrawny (by NHL standards) 18 years old that makes mistake the coach doesn't want to see in the NHL.

Is he automatically a 70 pts center? I don't think so, but pretty much everyone knew he was rushed. Why not give him the best chances at success?

I think physical maturity is likely what's holding Kotkaniemi back the most (other than a fearful coaching staff), but I don't think this would be any different had he played in the AHL,he'd still be a beanpole and growing into his frame.

Edit - sorry for hijacking the Caufield thread.

 

[Habs]

Or maybe the fact that he plays with 2 of the best players in the world also has a big impact? It's not like his numbers are through the roof, he's trending where a top 5 pick should be trending.

You or I could probably put up 20pts playing with McJesus and Draisatil

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Or maybe the fact that he plays with 2 of the best players in the world also has a big impact? It's not like his numbers are through the roof, he's trending where a top 5 pick should be trending.

Even that’s debatable, his numbers are only marginally better than his 19yr old season 3 years ago. He’s hardly a world beater.

 

[sandviper]

Let's forget Galchenyuk for a second...he's long gone.

But Kotkaniemi, so let's say he stays 1 more year in Finland after being drafted, comes to North America the following season (which would have been last year) and plays the entire year in the AHL.

This would be his rookie season.

Other than our perception, which would be altered since we'd be looking at a 20yr old rookie instead of 3rd year 20yr old.

What would be different? Would he play more minutes? Would he be more physically mature? Would the coaching staff trust him more?

The issue here is most posters believe KK would have developed better in the NHL. So, as a 3rd year center, their expectation is he should be some dominant force and putting up 0.6-o.9 ppg numbers.

What they don't realize is KK was a project to begin with and despite what's been said a million times by internet fans as well as actual scouts and coaches, the NHL isn't a development league.

I said it in the KK thread, but last season was shortened (plus he went to the AHL before he got hurt), and this season has the worst possible conditions if development was in the plans.

Caufield stuck in the NCAA for a couple years. While obviously a lower league, I will never compare NCAA to the NHL, let alone the AHL, Caufield was able to get top minutes, get gym and training time and essentially work on areas he had issues with as their schedule is less intense.

Going back to KK quick, I do think the perception would be different had KK only came into the NHL this season, especially a covid shortened one. I'm sure he would have gotten a little slack, though it really depends on how he'd have done in the AHL and Liiga. HF Habs are a fickle bunch and I'm sure the whining would had been the usual had he been under 0.7 ppg.

I think that's really what it comes down to... expectations. CC will be expected to score goals, but he gets a pass as he's a rookie and he's really only filling in a spot due to injuries. KK on the other hand is playing for his job.

 

[DAChampion]

You presumption was that Kotkaniemi would be a 2 way 70pt center today had he played in Finland/AHL.

I didn't write that. I said he'd be tracking for that. Not the same thing. Just like Suzuki is tracking to be a 70 point player.

Suzuki was allowed to dominate one level before moving on to the next. He wasn't made the baby/black sheep of the group.

Kotkaniemi should have had at least one full year in the AHL, but Bergevin put him on the team for the idiotic reason that he did well in training camp.

 

[417]

Even that’s debatable, his numbers are only marginally better than his 19yr old season 3 years ago. He’s hardly a world beater.

Sure...you're probably right.

I just meant more that there a lot of factors that go into development. It's short sighted to just point to the AHL as *the* factor in player success.

When a player plays 1-2 years in the NHL, everyone will be quick to point out how much that experience was critical in their success (and i'm not saying it had no value).

But when a player jumps from the amateurs and straight into the NHL (see Suzuki for example), no one says that that's an example of how skipping the AHL was critical to their success.

So we have to be careful attributing too much worth to one factor. It's a collection of different factors that are in play here.

 

[abo9]

Agreed - but I think that's largely a result of a coaching staff who inexplicably decided after about 60 games of his rookie season that he wasn't as ready as they thought he was (even though his performance/results said otherwise).

They've been sheltering him for 3yrs...at a certain point, you've got to take the kid gloves off.


To me, this sounds more like the issue is with impatient fans/media who want to see immediate results and aren't ready to watch a kid learn and develop on the job. Because he can work on these aspects in the NHL.

It's a complete myth that the NHL is not a development league...of course it is.

What we're seeing from Kotkaniemi right now, is a part of development.

The problem is fans don't want to see players struggle, they want instant results. In the AHL it's easier to get results and it reassures fans that the development process is going well (see Ryan Poehling), but the NHL is a whole other story.


I think physical maturity is likely what's holding Kotkaniemi back the most (other than a fearful coaching staff), but I don't think this would be any different had he played in the AHL,he'd still be a beanpole and growing into his frame.

Edit - sorry for hijacking the Caufield thread.

Ahh sorry for hijacking too, I totally thought I was in the KK thread after reading these last few posts.

I can't say I totally disagree with you. One of the biggest issue this organisation has seems to be the lack of communication between the coach and GM. If Julien thought Kotkaniemi was not as ready as he thought further along during the season, why not send him to the AHL, or back to Finland (if that was a possibility)? No harm there, he made the team after beating expectations.

In the NHL, players usually lose fitness over the course of the year because of the amount of games and travel. So I still think that Finland could have been beneficial for physical maturity - Correct me if I'm wrong but there's less games played right? Ergo more time to train.

As far as Caufield goes, as long as he produces and is used offensively I don't see an issue with him in the NHL. But if they start losing confidence in him, they should send him back to the AHL instead of benching him or scratching him imo.

 

[417]

The issue here is most posters believe KK would have developed better in the NHL. So, as a 3rd year center, their expectation is he should be some dominant force and putting up 0.6-o.9 ppg numbers.

What they don't realize is KK was a project to begin with and despite what's been said a million times by internet fans as well as actual scouts and coaches, the NHL isn't a development league.

I said it in the KK thread, but last season was shortened (plus he went to the AHL before he got hurt), and this season has the worst possible conditions if development was in the plans.

Caufield stuck in the NCAA for a couple years. While obviously a lower league, I will never compare NCAA to the NHL, let alone the AHL, Caufield was able to get top minutes, get gym and training time and essentially work on areas he had issues with as their schedule is less intense.

Going back to KK quick, I do think the perception would be different had KK only came into the NHL this season, especially a covid shortened one. I'm sure he would have gotten a little slack, though it really depends on how he'd have done in the AHL and Liiga. HF Habs are a fickle bunch and I'm sure the whining would had been the usual had he been under 0.7 ppg.

I think that's really what it comes down to... expectations. CC will be expected to score goals, but he gets a pass as he's a rookie and he's really only filling in a spot due to injuries. KK on the other hand is playing for his job.

That's what I said...

Is the issue the player? Or his perception and our impatience?

I think it's the latter.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with Caufield, I know the sample is small...but I don't see a player who would gain a ton from going to play in the AHL next year.

 

[417]

I didn't write that. I said he'd be tracking for that. Not the same thing. Just like Suzuki is tracking to be a 70 point player.

Fair, you did write that...I missed that nuance.

Suzuki was allowed to dominate one level before moving on to the next. He wasn't made the baby/black sheep of the group.

Kotkaniemi should have had at least one full year in the AHL, but Bergevin put him on the team for the idiotic reason that he did well in training camp.

Allowed to dominate?

He's a kid who dominated junior hockey from pretty much the moment he started out there. He wasn't physically ready for the NHL after his draft year and was too young to play in the AHL.

He dominated his D+1 year because well that's what he was supposed to do.

Sorry, i'll try to steer this convo back to Caufield because do you look at him as a player who needs more AHL time?

Cause I don't.

 

[SOLR]

Or maybe the fact that he plays with 2 of the best players in the world also has a big impact? It's not like his numbers are through the roof, he's trending where a top 5 pick should be trending.

I guess you know absolutely nothing about his development path then.

 

[417]

I guess you know absolutely nothing about his development path then.

If that's the conclusion you've reached...OK.

Let's go with the 72 games he played in Finland is why today, he's having an amazing season.

 

[sbhatt]

I think physical maturity is likely what's holding Kotkaniemi back the most (other than a fearful coaching staff), but I don't think this would be any different had he played in the AHL,he'd still be a beanpole and growing into his frame.

There's no excuse for his still being a wobbly beanpole though. At his age, the testosterone level and growth hormone level is very high...making mass and strength gains relatively easy when you are putting in the work. That he's made such little progress in 2 full years while having pro level resources (strength coaches at his disposal, power skating coaches available, nutritionist at his disposal, NHL salary that allows him to hire whatever coaching he needs in offseason) makes me wonder about his work ethic.

 

[DAChampion]

Sorry, i'll try to steer this convo back to Caufield because do you look at him as a player who needs more AHL time?

Cause I don't.

Caulfield is playing well, but so did Kotkaniemi, Galchenyuk, and fir that matter Mete, De La Rose, and Leblanc in their rookie campaigns. Galchenyuk had the strongest rookie campaign of them all.

This organization, historically, does not know what to do when 18 and 19 year olds go through their first slumps. It punishes young players when they make mistakes, etc rather than allowing them to work through their slumps.

 

[417]

Caulfield is playing well, but so did Kotkaniemi, Galchenyuk, and fir that matter Mete, De La Rose, and Leblanc in their rookie campaigns. Galchenyuk had the strongest rookie campaign of them all.

This organization, historically, does not know what to do when 18 and 19 year olds go through their first slumps. It punishes young players when they make mistakes, etc rather than allowing them to work through their slumps.

I think, as usual, the Habs are of 2 minds.

On 1 side - they have no problem graduating 19yr olds and praise their maturity and adaptability (2 things we heard repeatedly from the coaching staff KK's rookie year)

On the other side - at the slightest sign of trouble or adversity, they're quick to tell everyone that he's young and inexperienced.

Well if you're not ready to live with those, and this applies to Caufield as well, then yes...absolutely they should be playing in the AHL.

To me it's simple...if you've got an NHL player on your roster, use him, I don't want to hear anything about his age or inexperience. If those are factors that prevent you from using them to their full capacity, then they have no business being in the NHL because clearly you (coach) aren't ready for the player.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Caulfield is playing well, but so did Kotkaniemi, Galchenyuk, and fir that matter Mete, De La Rose, and Leblanc in their rookie campaigns. Galchenyuk had the strongest rookie campaign of them all.

This organization, historically, does not know what to do when 18 and 19 year olds go through their first slumps. It punishes young players when they make mistakes, etc rather than allowing them to work through their slumps.

Just wait until they start trying to teach Caufield to play their idea of "defence".

 

[Schwang]

Caulfield is playing well, but so did Kotkaniemi, Galchenyuk, and fir that matter Mete, De La Rose, and Leblanc in their rookie campaigns. Galchenyuk had the strongest rookie campaign of them all.

This organization, historically, does not know what to do when 18 and 19 year olds go through their first slumps. It punishes young players when they make mistakes, etc rather than allowing them to work through their slumps.

The issue is that this organization has never committed to a rebuild. So everytime some kid makes a mistake, he's benched in favor of a vet. Half the time, the vet can't score to save his life either. This stupid "just make the playoffs " attitude, along with thinking the fans won't stomach a rebuild, is just so asinine. This is why they are where they are today. I really hope this is coming to an end this summer.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Sure...you're probably right.

I just meant more that there a lot of factors that go into development. It's short sighted to just point to the AHL as *the* factor in player success.

When a player plays 1-2 years in the NHL, everyone will be quick to point out how much that experience was critical in their success (and i'm not saying it had no value).

But when a player jumps from the amateurs and straight into the NHL (see Suzuki for example), no one says that that's an example of how skipping the AHL was critical to their success.

So we have to be careful attributing too much worth to one factor. It's a collection of different factors that are in play here.

No argument from me here what so ever, we’re totally on the same page here.

Every player is different and every path will be different, there’s no magic formula.

 

[Habs Halifax]

KK was the wrong pick. + They rushed him badly. I will never blame the kid. The management and scouting did a shit job with him.

I will reserve judgment on KK being the right or wrong pick at a later date. It's too early to act like experts. At the time of the draft, I liked Tkachuk, Hughes, Zadina, and KK. I thought there was a waive of talent after the top 2 and that's what most believed (reality). So when I see Yzerman go after Seider and the Blue Jackets go after PLD in waives of talent, I was ok with the Habs going after KK... need vs pretending there was a BPA on draft day.

Nobody predicted Tkachuk to be the BPA heading up to the draft and on draft day with the 3rd OA pick. Realty. There were several people saying he wasn't even a top 10 quality due to his size and lack of skating. They called his WJC performance a fluke cause it's a "small tournament".

 

[Habs Halifax]

I really hate the Caufield and Poehling comparison. No rational people ever expected Poehling to become a goal scorer. The fact he had 4 goals in his first game never changed that.

It's fair to temper the hype but it's normal to be excited with Caufield's potential when he is already showing he can score in the NHL.

More of a joke than anything