Here we are again, my top 20 prospect rankings. The past few years I have gotten pretty good at picking the "potential riser" among our prospect pools going into seasons (Marchenko this year, Bemstrom last year). Hopefully we can continue that trend, however I won't be doing the riser until I post my new list AFTER the draft.
Before getting started on my top 20 prospects (pre draft), here's my last list which was after last years draft in June.
1. Alex Texier
2. Elvis Merzlikins
3. Emil Bemstrom
4. Vladislav Gavrikov
5. Liam Foudy
6. Andrew Peeke
7. Veini Vehvilainen
8. Danill Tarasov
9. Kirill Marchenko
10. Kevin Stenlund
11. Eric Robinson
12. Gabriel Carlsson
13. Jakob Lilja
14. Trey Fix-Wolansky
15. Eric Hjorth
16. Kole Sherwood
17. Dmitri Voronkov
18. Tim Berni
19. Markus Karlberg
20.Paul Bittner
Players to watch: Peeke, Vehvilainen, Marchenko, and Hjorth
Biggest Potential Riser: Marchenko
As always, I use the same criteria. How good they are now, how good they can be, and the likelihood they get there. These are all, of course, in my opinion.
*Keep in mind my criteria to be a prospect might be different than others. My criteria is you are considered a prospect if you have less than 82 games played in the NHL as a skater, a full season, or 30 starts as a goalie. Also anyone at or over the age of 25 will either be considered graduated or not a true prospect anymore.*
Graduated: Texier, Merzlikins, Gavrikov, Robinson
1. Liam Foudy
2. Emil Bemstrom
3. Kirill Marchenko
4. Andrew Peeke
5. Daniil Tarasov
6. Dmitri Voronkov
7. Kevin Stenlund
8. Veini Vehvilainen
9. Eric Hjorth
10. Gabriel Carlsson
11. Trey Fix-Wolansky
12. Mattis Kivlenieks
13. Kole Sherwood
14. Tim Berni
15. Markus Karlberg
16. Ryan MacInnis
17. Peter Thome
18. Tyler Angle
19. Kale Howarth
20. Robbie Stucker
Foudy edges out Bemstrom for the #1 spot...but just barely. I think Bemstrom has the higher end potential out of the two players by a WIDE margin on the offensive end. But at the same time, Foudy holds a wide margin on the defensive end, and I think is far more likely to reach his top potential than Bemstrom. Foudy was good this year all around, from juniors, to world juniors, to the NHL. He was very good in the Toronto series at times, but hit the wall against Tampa. Bemstrom however was up and down all year (as to be expected from a rookie), but his ups were never frequent, and his ups were more sparks than any sustained period of play. I do think he would have had a better year if not for his injury though, as he was starting to turn the corner before it happened.
Marchenko barely edges out Peeke for 3. I chose him mostly due to top end potential. I think Marchenko could be a very solid top six player for the team in a few years, but he has to learn consistency and the defensive aspect of the game or he won't last. Meanwhile, Peeke is going to be a solid pro, but I don't know how high the ceiling is. He was impressive in some games where he was extremely sheltered, and very exposed when he wasn't sheltered. All in all, I think both players have good NHL futures ahead of them, and I battled hard on which one should be 3rd. Ultimately I decided top end potential trumped the safe option, because if Marchenko hits he could be a stud.
Voronkov made a late push to be ahead of Tarasov, but I couldn't pull the trigger. He seems to be really trending upward in his development and can even potentially be fast tracked to the NHL if he wants it in the relatively near future. I do question the upside though, I see people calling him Boone Jenner or even better, but I don't know. I do think he has an NHL future though, but I question the ceiling. Meanwhile, Tarasov's ceiling is sky high. I think he has potential to be an NHL star down the road, however I do think he will require a lot of time to get to where he needs to be. But, with the CBJ depth in goal, they can wait for him, or even use him as a trade chip.
Stenlund revived his career as a prospect and put himself on the NHL map again. He's got a very good shot, and is a smart player. However, that appears to be all he has going for him. The rest of the body of work is just meh. He has impressive size and can get around, but nothing leaps out at you. I think he has 3rd line PP specialist upside.
Vehvilainen was fine for his first season on NA ice. Nothing special, but the potential is there. More time in the oven and he could be a fine starting goalie in the NHL, or used as a trade chip.
After VV, the quality of the prospect pool really starts falling off. The top 5 is very solid, the next 3 are pretty good. After that? It's a whole lot of questions and deeply flawed prospects. Some have very longshot odds to even play games in the NHL.
Hjorth is impressive. I like his build and I think he's got a future ahead of him. However, his statline isn't impressive, which is surprising to me given his offensive instincts, and his defensive play is abysmal. He'll need to improve dramatically in that area, or become an excellent offensive player to make up for the shortcomings, or he won't see the NHL.
Carlsson is meh. He could probably play on an NHL team if they needed him, and he'd probably fit in on somebodies 3rd pairing and you wouldn't really care. Think of Scott Harrington, but a little worse.
TFW was fine in his first full pro season. IIRC he got injured but bounced back after a very tough start. He could get some games on a call up if he's playing well, and I could see him climbing the list. Still, my reservations with him as a prospect haven't changed, and I think he's an AHL scorer career trajectory.
Kivlenieks was fine for Cleveland, and fine for the CBJ when called upon. But it's hard to really judge him when the entire system is so goalie friendly. He did his job, and is a reliable goalie given our system. That's really it. I think he's at best an NHL backup, but more likely an AHL guy.
Sherwood is Sherwood. Big size, big shot. Nothing else. Doesn't get in position to use his size or his shot very often, and very little offensive instincts. Little growth, but an AHL call up guy if needed due to his size and ability to keep up.
Berni and Karlberg are kind of the same. Berni is higher due to a higher floor, but it's not a huge margin. Karlberg has good potential, but he never shows it against the best of the best in his country. Big year for both of them, and both have potential to climb. Karlberg will be (hopefully) playing full time in the SHL and Berni will be going to Cleveland whenever they start.
MacInnis had a good year for Cleveland and earned a few call ups with the CBJ. Didn't look out of place. He's there.
The rest are on the list because I needed 20 prospects. Thome is interesting to me though, but he's caught in such a logjam at both his college and in our own system that I don't see him getting a contract.