Player Discussion Carey Price - You're Richer Than You Think Edition

[JoelWarlord]

Can you even just calculate the difference of a .920 sv% vs. a .910 sv% (which is league average) over the course of 60 games? It's 18 goals. Would you pay $10M for an 18 goal scorer?

No but that's not a meaningful comparison. In this example swapping a .910 goalie for a .920 goalie is directly giving you the 18 marginal goals because all those minutes go directly from the goalie to another. For the 18 goal scorer you have to consider what a readily available replacement will offer you vs. the 18 goal guy. Let's just arbitrarily say you could call up a guy like Hudon for 700k and he'd probably score 10-12 goals for you. With the 18 goal scorer only adding around ~6 goals vs a 700k fringe NHLer, it's not a pure addition of 18 goals (and I'm sure you can find another 18 goal scorer for much less than 10M).

It's not that simple because you have to consider defence/playmaking etc. but in a direct sense you have to think of what a player does vs a Charles Hudon type player because that's who will fill out your roster if you don't have better players to use. In this example of a .910 vs .920 goalie that's a pure benefit of 18 goals for your team because it's directly replacing one goalie with another for all those minutes. I'm not saying it's necessarily right to spend 10.5M on a goalie (especially because I'm sure you can find a .915 goalie for less than 5.75M), but .910 vs .920 being "only" 18 goals isn't a reason not to pay a star G because 18 marginal goals is actually a huge number in the NHL.

If the Canadiens were 18 goals worse last year they'd have around the same goal differential as Florida and have been -8 and about 10 points out of a playoff spot. 18 goals better and they'd be right between Winnipeg and San Jose at +28 with the 8th best goal differential in the league. By Evolving Hockey's goals above replacement model the players in the ~18 goal range are guys like Pastrnak, Kucherov, Stamkos, etc. which puts them in the top ~20ish skaters in the league.

 

[TheGoalJudge]

No but that's not a meaningful comparison. In this example swapping a .910 goalie for a .920 goalie is directly giving you the 18 marginal goals because all those minutes go directly from the goalie to another. For the 18 goal scorer you have to consider what a readily available replacement will offer you vs. the 18 goal guy. Let's just arbitrarily say you could call up a guy like Hudon for 700k and he'd probably score 10-12 goals for you. With the 18 goal scorer only adding around ~6 goals vs a 700k fringe NHLer, it's not a pure addition of 18 goals (and I'm sure you can find another 18 goal scorer for much less than 10M).

It's not that simple because you have to consider defence/playmaking etc. but in a direct sense you have to think of what a player does vs a Charles Hudon type player because that's who will fill out your roster if you don't have better players to use. In this example of a .910 vs .920 goalie that's a pure benefit of 18 goals for your team because it's directly replacing one goalie with another for all those minutes. I'm not saying it's necessarily right to spend 10.5M on a goalie (especially because I'm sure you can find a .915 goalie for less than 5.75M), but .910 vs .920 being "only" 18 goals isn't a reason not to pay a star G because 18 marginal goals is actually a huge number in the NHL.

If the Canadiens were 18 goals worse last year they'd have around the same goal differential as Florida and have been -8 and about 10 points out of a playoff spot. 18 goals better and they'd be right between Winnipeg and San Jose at +28 with the 8th best goal differential in the league. By Evolving Hockey's goals above replacement model the players in the ~18 goal range are guys like Pastrnak, Kucherov, Stamkos, etc. which puts them in the top ~20ish skaters in the league.

18 marginal goals is a huge number but there is a ton of variance in goaltender performance that doesn't exist for skaters.

For example, if you allocate 99% of your cap to your skaters, you could argue your shot quality against would be about as optimal as you could hope, which would inflate the goaltender's numbers.

If you replace Kulak with a $10M top pairing LD, the league average .910 goaltender you sign could post .915 or .920. I think this happens all the time in the NHL but this is obviously anecdotal.

It seems completely backwards to me that you would want to allocate any resources to a player that is so reliant on their teammates. You should do everything to prevent shots on goal, I think. Any shot on goal is a negative. I would spend as much cap as possible to prevent shots on goal.

I think NHL goaltenders are the closest analogy in sports to NFL running backs. If the blocking is good, the runner gains yardage easily.

If the shots come from the outside, the goaltender stops the puck. We're at a point in time where NHL goaltending seems to be as homogeneous as it's ever been. A poor shot attempt will get saved. That's how I would try to build a team.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The fact we gave him $10M and he can only play 60 games is amazing. Imagine paying a #1D or #1C that money and they can only play 60 games.

I'm not blaming Price, as it makes sense for a goalie to avoid back-to-backs. In fact, I would just pay two 1B type goalies and play each 40 games.

Yeah, good luck with that...

Price rarely wins a game by being outstanding.
He's very good on many nights.
But i would expect more from the top paid goalie in hockey.
Patrick roy was a spectacular goalie and won multiple cups.
I dont see that type of run in Price.

Price would have won multiple cups on those teams and Roy would've won zero with the ones we have.

As great at Roy was (and he was fantastic) He never beat a goliath to win a cup. The only time we faced a true powerhouse we lost. I'm not taking anything away from him, but it's not like he pulled a Dryden and beat the '86 Oilers. And he had one of the best defensive teams of all time in front of him for his entire career here. Once the team started to fall apart he left for Colorado. Did he ever once beat an overwhelming favourite in a series the way Price did in 2014? I don't think he did.

18 marginal goals is a huge number but there is a ton of variance in goaltender performance that doesn't exist for skaters.

For example, if you allocate 99% of your cap to your skaters, you could argue your shot quality against would be about as optimal as you could hope, which would inflate the goaltender's numbers.

If you replace Kulak with a $10M top pairing LD, the league average .910 goaltender you sign could post .915 or .920. I think this happens all the time in the NHL but this is obviously anecdotal.

It seems completely backwards to me that you would want to allocate any resources to a player that is so reliant on their teammates. You should do everything to prevent shots on goal, I think. Any shot on goal is a negative. I would spend as much cap as possible to prevent shots on goal.

I think NHL goaltenders are the closest analogy in sports to NFL running backs. If the blocking is good, the runner gains yardage easily.

If the shots come from the outside, the goaltender stops the puck. We're at a point in time where NHL goaltending seems to be as homogeneous as it's ever been. A poor shot attempt will get saved. That's how I would try to build a team.

Every player is reliant on their teammates. If they weren't then Connor McDavid would've made the playoffs more than once in his career. Last year we managed 97 points... that is insane considering the defense we had. Our backup couldn't win a game to save his life behind this group and it looks like that's going to continue this season.

And it's not like Price needs a great D to put up great numbers either. He's played behind mediocre to bad teams his whole career. Putting him behind a terrible group though is going to hurt any goalie. Price's numbers (not his play) sucked at the start of last year until Weber came back. Then he suddenly went .920+ the rest of the way and almost managed a Vezina nom.

All we needed to do was shore up the D a little and we'd be in far better shape. But we sit here and do nothing relying way too much on our goalie. THAT is a dumb thing to do no matter how good your goalie is.

 

[BLONG7]

Yeah, good luck with that...


Price would have won multiple cups on those teams and Roy would've won zero with the ones we have.

As great at Roy was (and he was fantastic) He never beat a goliath to win a cup. The only time we faced a true powerhouse we lost. I'm not taking anything away from him, but it's not like he pulled a Dryden and beat the '86 Oilers. And he had one of the best defensive teams of all time in front of him for his entire career here. Once the team started to fall apart he left for Colorado.


Every player is reliant on their teammates. If they weren't then Connor McDavid would've made the playoffs more than once in his career. Last year we managed 97 points... that is insane considering the defense we had. Our backup couldn't win a game to save his life behind this group and it looks like that's going to continue this season.

And it's not like Price needs a great D to put up great numbers either. He's played behind mediocre to bad teams his whole career. Putting him behind a terrible group though is going to hurt any goalie. Price's numbers (not his play) sucked at the start of last year until Weber came back. Then he suddenly went .920+ the rest of the way and almost managed a Vezina nom.

All we needed to do was shore up the D a little and we'd be in far better shape. But we sit here and do nothing relying way too much on our goalie. THAT is a dumb thing to do no matter how good your goalie is.

Common sense.......great post.
Why do I have the feeling Price would endorse this post. We need a real GM to rebuild the D the proper way. 7-8th guys on the D is hardly a way to make your best player happy.

 

[Milhouse40]

In no way was i "beating on Price". Just stating the obvious.

The guy is paid as the top goalie in hockey. He's never won a cup or led a team on a long run.

Many goalies have led mediocre teams on playoff runs.

Price has done none of that.

I think he's a very good goalie. Not great. Not yet anyway. And of course he'll be compared to the great goalies of the past. The fact that he is being compared says he's in that category or at least hovering around it.

Yeah, that team in 2014 that went to ECF with Weise and Desharnais on their 1st line was a real top 4 team in the league.
It's not like Price had anything to do with it….

And i'm curious, in the last 7 years….which are those goalies and mediocre team actually you're talking about?

 

[Habs Halifax]

.914 Sv% (5/5) and .762 (on the PK) so far in 12 games.

 

[TheGoalJudge]

Every player is reliant on their teammates.

To a certain degree. McDavid on a bad Oilers team still hit 100 points. That is worth a certain amount of money.

Carey Price on a bad Habs team can't get back to .920. His numbers are replacement level. He depends far more on his teammates than a skater.

If you give up a 3 on 0, the puck goes in the net, even if Hasek is in net.

If McDavid's teammates suck, he just takes the puck, skates down the ice and scores. This is just the reality of the two positions.

 

[EXTRAS]

It isn't an 18 goal scorer. It's 18 goals above the average goalie. So if you say the average goalie is equivalent to a 25 goal scorer, then it's like price is a 43 goal scorer.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It seems completely backwards to me that you would want to allocate any resources to a player that is so reliant on their teammates.

He's not nearly as reliant as you're saying he is. And he makes a huge difference... far bigger than you're giving him credit for.

We're asking him to compensate for SIX players who are below average as a group and he came within a hair of getting us to the playoffs this season despite a garbage group. A normal goalie would get eaten alive playing 60 games behind this garbage. 97 points in the toughest division in the league is damn impressive considering the D we had.

Yes, that bad D probably cost him eight+ points off his save percentage and on that point you're correct. It DOES affect his numbers. However, put a normal goalie in net behind that group and his save percentage is going to be much, much lower.

Our backups can't win a f***ing game. Look at tonight, do we get a point without him standing on his head? Look at the game against the Leafs... he gives up five freaking goals while putting on a goaltending clinic and gets us the win. Do his numbers look good? No. But he stopped twelve breakaways that game. Twelve - including the shootout. A lesser goalie would've gotten killed and we wouldn't have gotten the two points.

Save percentage is a very different stat than goalscoring is. Imagine Price got a point every time he made a wicked save. He'd lead the league every year. But he gets penalized when Jordi Benn falls on top of him and we let in a goal. They are NOT measured the same way.

Bottom line, when we had Weber healthy last year his numbers took a huge jump. It's not like we had a great group back there but at least it wasn't five AHLers plus Petry.

It wouldn't take much to add some decent blueliners. He doesnt' need Robinson, Savard and Lapointe to be effective. He's already effective. But his numbers would go way up if we had even an average D.

But we don't. We have a pile of shit and that's why we're probably going to miss the playoffs again this year. That's despite us having good scoring up front and a great goalie.

We SHOULD be much better than we are. Unfortunately we've got a GM who's content with putting it ALL on his goalie. That's as wrongheaded as putting it all on McDavid. Neither way is going to work.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

To a certain degree. McDavid on a bad Oilers team still hit 100 points. That is worth a certain amount of money.

McDavid doesn't lose points when his team gets scored on. He doesn't lose points if he makes a crappy defensive play. His stats are cummulative not average based. That doesn't mean goalies aren't tremendously important behind a bad D.

Also, McDavid has one of the best players in the league to play with. If he had Jordie Benn quality wingers he's probably going to struggle to get there.

Carey Price on a bad Habs team can't get back to .920.

The key words here are... on a bad team. On an average team, they certainly can. And once again, a lesser goalie's numbers would be far worse than Price's.

Price's numbers went to 920+ just with Weber coming back last year. Still a terrible group but at least we didn't have Jordie Benn on the first pairing anymore.

His numbers are replacement level. He depends far more on his teammates than a skater.

He finished fifth in Vezina last year on a brutal team and probably should've been higher esp given how many games he played. This year the D is even worse with Weber being hurt - or old - take your pick.

And again, you're saying Price depends on his teammates more than a skater would. Not the case. Save percentage is not cumulative the way scoring is... it's apples and oranges.

If anything I'd say the goalie is the most important position on the team. He can make up for tons of mistakes that his team makes and he plays the entire game. Let's say .912 is average... okay, maybe so. But he's not playing on an average team. He's playing on a bad one. An average goalie's numbers are going to be a hell of a lot worse than .915 if they play here.

If you give up a 3 on 0, the puck goes in the net, even if Hasek is in net.

If McDavid's teammates suck, he just takes the puck, skates down the ice and scores. This is just the reality of the two positions.

??? This makes no sense.

Goalies make up for mistakes that the whole team makes. And good goalies do it repeatedly throughout the game. Again, Price came within a hair of getting us into the playoffs last year despite playing behind garbage. He's making up for the six players in front of him and he's been pretty wicked at doing it. We're still more dependent on him than any other player and it's been that way for ten years. Our backups can't win a freaking game behind this group.

And btw, goalies can LOSE the game for you. When you cheap out on netminding you're going to lose games you should've won. That happens pretty rarely with Price. Hell the only time this thread ever gets bumped is when he lets in a bad goal or has a bad game. Otherwise it's very quiet in here.

 

[azcanuck]

Yeah, that team in 2014 that went to ECF with Weise and Desharnais on their 1st line was a real top 4 team in the league.
It's not like Price had anything to do with it….

And i'm curious, in the last 7 years….which are those goalies and mediocre team actually you're talking about?

Just look at St.louis and what Bennington did with them last year. They were last overall when they called him up. Now I'm not going to call ST. Louis a mediocre team. But Benn. carried that team on his back. Something price has never done in the playoffs. I'm not calling Price bad or saying he's playing bad. I'm just stating the obvious here.

 

[Milhouse40]

Just look at St.louis and what Bennington did with them last year. They were last overall when they called him up. Now I'm not going to call ST. Louis a mediocre team. But Benn. carried that team on his back. Something price has never done in the playoffs. I'm not calling Price bad or saying he's playing bad. I'm just stating the obvious here.

If it would be remotely true, he would have won the MVP and not O'reilly.

But as you said, St-Louis is not a mediocre team….Habs are and always have been.
When was the last time we had centers like O'Reilly, Schenn, Bozak?
Never happened in the Price's career so far, not even close.

Your example isn't a good one, in fact it's a terrible one.
As i said, find one goalie that put a mediocre team in the finals in the last 10 years….it never happened.
You are expecting Price to do something that never happened in his era, doesn't seems fair to me.

St-Louis was dead last for 2 reasons.
1- Allen is a terrible goalie
2- Injuries

Last year they had only 3 players that played 80 games of more...to compare, Habs had 9 players with 80+games played.

In the last 12 years, there were only 2 goalies that won the Conn Smythe, that you actually can argue that they won the Cup for their team. Thomas and Quick. But both also had a great 1st line center in Kopitar and Bergeron and an awesome #1D in Doughty and Chara. Price never had a #1 center OR a #1 D of that quality, again here, not even close….those goalies had both.

 

[Perrah]

Just look at St.louis and what Bennington did with them last year. They were last overall when they called him up. Now I'm not going to call ST. Louis a mediocre team. But Benn. carried that team on his back. Something price has never done in the playoffs. I'm not calling Price bad or saying he's playing bad. I'm just stating the obvious here.

Prices career playoff stats are almost identical to Binningtons 1 year playoff stats. Take from that what you want but apparently the shitty years of Price in the playoffs yields the same stats as a goalie carrying his team to the cup. Some might think the rest of the team has something to do with it but maybe not.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Just look at St.louis and what Bennington did with them last year. They were last overall when they called him up. Now I'm not going to call ST. Louis a mediocre team. But Benn. carried that team on his back. Something price has never done in the playoffs.

He carried us past freaking Boston in '14. A huge upset and something Patrick Roy never did. Please don't tell me that he hasn't played well in the playoffs because that's nonsense. For the last decade his numbers in the playoffs are stellar and he's done it behind some pretty weak teams.

If he doesn't get hurt in 2014 we go to the finals. We very likely lose to the Kings but we get past the Rangers.

 

[azcanuck]

He carried us past freaking Boston in '14. A huge upset and something Patrick Roy never did. Please don't tell me that he hasn't played well in the playoffs because that's nonsense. For the last decade his numbers in the playoffs are stellar and he's done it behind some pretty weak teams.

If he doesn't get hurt in 2014 we go to the finals. We very likely lose to the Kings but we get past the Rangers.

One round you call a playoff run?

 

[azcanuck]

If it would be remotely true, he would have won the MVP and not O'reilly.

But as you said, St-Louis is not a mediocre team….Habs are and always have been.
When was the last time we had centers like O'Reilly, Schenn, Bozak?
Never happened in the Price's career so far, not even close.

Your example isn't a good one, in fact it's a terrible one.
As i said, find one goalie that put a mediocre team in the finals in the last 10 years….it never happened.
You are expecting Price to do something that never happened in his era, doesn't seems fair to me.

St-Louis was dead last for 2 reasons.
1- Allen is a terrible goalie
2- Injuries

Last year they had only 3 players that played 80 games of more...to compare, Habs had 9 players with 80+games played.

In the last 12 years, there were only 2 goalies that won the Conn Smythe, that you actually can argue that they won the Cup for their team. Thomas and Quick. But both also had a great 1st line center in Kopitar and Bergeron and an awesome #1D in Doughty and Chara. Price never had a #1 center OR a #1 D of that quality, again here, not even close….those goalies had both.

What are you talking about?
Habs have finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th OVERALL in the league while Carey has been in the nets.

Last year St. Louis was middle of the road AT BEST and Bennington played a major role in the Cup win. It can be argued he should have been MVP. He was SUPERB in the playoffs.

And I'm not putting up winning the Cup as a standard. How about a long playoff run. He hasnt done that either.

 

[Genesis76]

Is it ok to say that Price was a terrible fit for this organization?

Regardless of how good he is or was or will ever be.

 

[peate]

Last night's game is a good reflection on his career. Incredible saves, keeps his team in the game, and then flubs one and it's all over.

 

[abo9]

The 18 goal scorer thing was a ridiculous statement to make lol. A player scoring 18 more goals per year than the average goal scorer in only 60 games IS a star player. You'd indeed love it if he played all 82 games though.

If you're going to pay Price that much though, you better make sure the team is playoff bound even when ignoring him in net, because you'll need a competitive team in those 20 games he's not playing. You also want him at his best for the playoffs because that's when he makes his paycheck worth. You don't need a powerhouse like TB at all, just a competitive playoff team, but add Price to all playoff games to this competitive playoff team and you get yourself a contender in the playoffs.

However, Montreal has iced below-average rosters during Price's tenure, and his role consisted of bringing Montreal to the playoffs for most of his prime. However, with a below average roster and a star goalie, your team is still only super average.

Now, there are legit arguments to be made about building your team around a goalie vs a star forward or defenseman, but that's how the Habs decided to play their hands. And I'm sure they'll play it for the next 4-5 years at least

 

[Milhouse40]

What are you talking about?
Habs have finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th OVERALL in the league while Carey has been in the nets.

Last year St. Louis was middle of the road AT BEST and Bennington played a major role in the Cup win. It can be argued he should have been MVP. He was SUPERB in the playoffs.

And I'm not putting up winning the Cup as a standard. How about a long playoff run. He hasnt done that either.

They finished there because of Price…..didn't you watch during those years?
He was the best goalie in the planet at that time. Won bunch of trophy to proved it too.

What is a long playoff run?
He went to the ECF before he got injured….that's a long playoff run or for you it'S the finals or nothing?
Cause the Habs NEVER had the team to get to the finals like all the other team that went to the finals. not even close.

And, yep, Bennington was great in the playoff….so was O'reilly.
A goalie never won a Cup by himself, never happened in the history of hockey….the Cup is a trophy team.

 

[azcanuck]

They finished there because of Price…..didn't you watch during those years?
He was the best goalie in the planet at that time. Won bunch of trophy to proved it too.

What is a long playoff run?
He went to the ECF before he got injured….that's a long playoff run or for you it'S the finals or nothing?
Cause the Habs NEVER had the team to get to the finals like all the other team that went to the finals. not even close.

And, yep, Bennington was great in the playoff….so was O'reilly.
A goalie never won a Cup by himself, never happened in the history of hockey….the Cup is a trophy team.

So he himself did it in the regular season. But not in the playoffs . Because that was the teams fault. Okay Gotcha.

King Henry outplayed him in the ECF.

For a "great" goalie he's not done enough in the playoffs.
yes teams in front of you mean a lot.
but I've never seen him be a patrick Roy in the playoffs.
YET.

 

[Perrah]

So he himself did it in the regular season. But not in the playoffs . Because that was the teams fault. Okay Gotcha.

King Henry outplayed him in the ECF.

For a "great" goalie he's not done enough in the playoffs.
yes teams in front of you mean a lot.
but I've never seen him be a patrick Roy in the playoffs.
YET.

Price played 40 minutes in the ECF.

Either Price is better in the playoffs than you are giving him credit for, or Binnington isnt as good as you are saying.
Binnington had:

• 7 sub .900 games.
• 3 sub .800 games.

Yet his team won the cup and he is superb. Price has the same save percentage as an average over his whole career and he isnt that good in the playoffs. That includes some bad playoff outings for Price earlier in his career.

I am not trying to diminish Binnington here but trying to see what your justifications of superb vs meh are.

 

[LaP]

Every player is reliant on their teammates. If they weren't then Connor McDavid would've made the playoffs more than once in his career. Last year we managed 97 points... that is insane considering the defense we had. Our backup couldn't win a game to save his life behind this group and it looks like that's going to continue this season.

And it's not like Price needs a great D to put up great numbers either. He's played behind mediocre to bad teams his whole career. Putting him behind a terrible group though is going to hurt any goalie. Price's numbers (not his play) sucked at the start of last year until Weber came back. Then he suddenly went .920+ the rest of the way and almost managed a Vezina nom.

All we needed to do was shore up the D a little and we'd be in far better shape. But we sit here and do nothing relying way too much on our goalie. THAT is a dumb thing to do no matter how good your goalie is.

Sadly lot of fans still overrate this defense.

It's made of a solid number 2 and a solid number 3 in Weber and Petry (the order is your call). But we lack a solid number 1 and a quality 4th dman (even though Mete looks on his way to develop into a 4th dman). Because of that we also often ice AHL dmen like Folin, Reilly and Kulak and none of those have anything to offer to a NHL team unlike prime Emelin or Gorges.

 

[HelloBellyvo]

An excerpt from the Athletic by Marc Dumont re Flyers amd Habs last night. An interesting read
But there’s a certain amount of intangible value in a game like that, even if it did result in a loss. It serves as a reminder that even if Price hasn’t been at his best every game this season, he definitely still has the ability to single-handedly drag the Canadiens to respectability when they’re struggling to tread water.
And when we take a step back and take a closer look at the numbers, the situation becomes a lot more clear: Price has been more than fine.
While traditional numbers don’t paint his play in a particularly flattering light, the advanced numbers do. And I’m not talking about the number that usually shows up in the criticism of Price’s play, because until the Canadiens are remotely close to being in a salary-cap crunch, that number will be fairly irrelevant.
Price has faced the second-most high-danger shots in the NHL this season and has managed to maintain a .907 save percentage in those situations, the sixth-best result in the league. He’s also seventh overall in goals saved above average, which might suggest he’s not the best goalie in the league at the moment.
But considering how many quality chances the Canadiens give up on most nights, the reports of Carey Price’s death might have been greatly exaggerated.
(Photo of Carey Price: Drew Hallowell / Getty Images; statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick)

 

[abo9]

So he himself did it in the regular season. But not in the playoffs . Because that was the teams fault. Okay Gotcha.

King Henry outplayed him in the ECF.

For a "great" goalie he's not done enough in the playoffs.
yes teams in front of you mean a lot.
but I've never seen him be a patrick Roy in the playoffs.
YET.

I'm too young to have seen Roy play but the results speak for themselves. When Carey Price is injured or has a down year Montreal has been a lottery team during his career. Heck, in 2011-2012 he had average stats and they were a lottery team.

You don't win a cup with a lottery team + a star