Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 2

[Ridley Simon]

Exactly. It wasn't that we had luck this year and didn't in previous years. This is a sport where you have to put yourself in position to have things break your way. If you don't get traffic in front, there are no deflections or "lucky" bounces. You can't complete a stretch pass unless you try some. You won't get any "oops" goals that trickle in off quick releases and off-tempo changes of pace when you're playing conservative, wait-for-the-right-moment hockey all the time. When Holtby let in that brain-fart goal, he wasn't unlucky. He made a mistake and a hard-working guy was all over him when he did.

Yeah, there are occasionally some truly fluky nonsense plays that break one way or the other, but 90+% of the stuff referred to as "luck" in this game have tangible, purposeful causes. The last few years we weren't doing those things at all -- weren't even giving ourselves chances to be lucky. This year we did.

Perfect example of this was the DSP game tying goal in SC GM5. He's going hard towards the crease...Orpik throws a random shot towards the net "area", it gets a lucky bounce and he ends up making a terrific play with his feet etc to score.

He doesnt go to the crease, he never scores that goal. Was it luck that the puck ended up near him? Yes. Was it luck that he scored the goal? No. Caps teams....in years past.....dont have DSP going to the crease there. He'd be falling back into the neutral zone to clog the lane. Thats coaching, thats being prepared....and it resulted in a lucky carom to end up as a terrific goal.

 

[RandyHolt]

Having a full shoulder reconstruction this morning. If I don’t make it back, @RandyHolt can have my vmoney

Keep your change, you got this. Gentlemen, we can rebuild him. Good luck!

 

[Corby78]

So when do the caps win team of the year at the espys?

 

[Silky mitts]

Perfect example of this was the DSP game tying goal in SC GM5. He's going hard towards the crease...Orpik throws a random shot towards the net "area", it gets a lucky bounce and he ends up making a terrific play with his feet etc to score.

He doesnt go to the crease, he never scores that goal. Was it luck that the puck ended up near him? Yes. Was it luck that he scored the goal? No. Caps teams....in years past.....dont have DSP going to the crease there. He'd be falling back into the neutral zone to clog the lane. Thats coaching, thats being prepared....and it resulted in a lucky carom to end up as a terrific goal.

The puck also stayed onside by a fraction of an inch and DSP made a kick save on the puck as it was going to the net and deflected it into perfect position to capitalize on MAF’s initial reaction, the 3rd time in 2 games a Cap kicked a puck perfectly into scoring position with Oshie and DSP the game before. Caps won in 5 so maybe it didn’t matter, and the last 2 games had the most good bounces and are freshest so there’s recency bias, but that was a super fluky goal.

 

[Corby78]

The puck also stayed onside by a fraction of an inch and DSP made a kick save on the puck as it was going to the net and deflected it into perfect position to capitalize on MAF’s initial reaction, the 3rd time in 2 games a Cap kicked a puck perfectly into scoring position with Oshie and DSP the game before. Caps won in 5 so maybe it didn’t matter, and the last 2 games had the most good bounces and are freshest so there’s recency bias, but that was a super fluky goal.

I prefer to call those goals skill

 

[g00n]

It's not all random dumb luck. If you are in the right frame of mind then in that split second when something happens you will unconsciously interpret it differently than if you're in a bad frame of mind.

A bouncing puck is batted down and roofed cleanly one day when everything is flowing, and another day the same move fails awkwardly in what seems like a bad break when the player is tight or fearful. 1/10 of a second neuronal reactions dictate motor skills, and many are initiated before we're even aware we have triggered them. Much of that is determined by preparation and attitude.

Good teams seem more lucky in part because of this.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Valuable LTIR space if he doesn't.

League minimum?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

What's the right contract for Tom Wilson, Capitals? — NBC Sports

 

[Jags]

Perfect example of this was the DSP game tying goal in SC GM5.

And a big chunk of every goal Brett Connolly scores. He has a quick release, accuracy, and a nose for positioning and timing, but the one thing that sets him apart is that he takes those shots. He doesn't leave shots on the table, never waits too long, doesn't overthink anything. He just shoots, and that's why a lot of his goals catch guys flat-footed, trickle in off bounces, and seemingly come out of nowhere.

We had more guys doing those kinds of things, playing strong positional games like Ridley said, putting themselves in position to be opportunistic, picking pockets, wreaking havoc in front, etc. That generates goals and people shout "Lucky!" when they should be applauding smarts and effort.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The puck also stayed onside by a fraction of an inch and DSP made a kick save on the puck as it was going to the net and deflected it into perfect position to capitalize on MAF’s initial reaction, the 3rd time in 2 games a Cap kicked a puck perfectly into scoring position with Oshie and DSP the game before. Caps won in 5 so maybe it didn’t matter, and the last 2 games had the most good bounces and are freshest so there’s recency bias, but that was a super fluky goal.

Again...had he not been going to the net, none of that would have happened. That — is the difference. And it’s just one example of dozens.

 

[Ridley Simon]

And a big chunk of every goal Brett Connolly scores. He has a quick release, accuracy, and a nose for positioning and timing, but the one thing that sets him apart is that he takes those shots. He doesn't leave shots on the table, never waits too long, doesn't overthink anything. He just shoots, and that's why a lot of his goals catch guys flat-footed, trickle in off bounces, and seemingly come out of nowhere.

We had more guys doing those kinds of things, playing strong positional games like Ridley said, putting themselves in position to be opportunistic, picking pockets, wreaking havoc in front, etc. That generates goals and people shout "Lucky!" when they should be applauding smarts and effort.

I’m excited to see if they can actually play a full season of it. Sure.....there will be lulls, injuries, cold spells, and inconsistencies.....but hot damn. Let’s see Reirden unleash the hounds, have some added youth to the mix in the lower forward ranks, and roll to SC Cup Win #2!

 

[Corby78]

Ovie wins again! Male athlete of the year. Still hate the espys though

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[hockeykicker]

Not even crosby can do this :p

 

[Silky mitts]

Again...had he not been going to the net, none of that would have happened. That — is the difference. And it’s just one example of dozens.

The Vegas defenseman both went toward the point so DSP went to the net, Vegas kept letting DSP get the puck with no one between him and the goalie, it’s like they did no advance scouting, DSP looked so tough against Tampa when he had a clear path. They also had that breakdown on the Wilson goal where the guy pointed and the 2 Knights wetnt to the same spot.

 

[kicksavedave]

It's not all random dumb luck. If you are in the right frame of mind then in that split second when something happens you will unconsciously interpret it differently than if you're in a bad frame of mind.

A bouncing puck is batted down and roofed cleanly one day when everything is flowing, and another day the same move fails awkwardly in what seems like a bad break when the player is tight or fearful. 1/10 of a second neuronal reactions dictate motor skills, and many are initiated before we're even aware we have triggered them. Much of that is determined by preparation and attitude.

Good teams seem more lucky in part because of this.

"Luck is the residue of hard work" - Vince Lombardi.

I'd say the Caps got a lot of lucky bounces this season that they didn't get in years past. I'd also say they earned those bounces, by outworking their opponent most of the time in most every game. They made their breaks, and when they didn't always get that lucky bounce (remember Eller missing a tap in, game 1 SCF), they overcame whatever bad luck they were handed, by getting back to work, instead of packing it in.

Specifically looking at Holtby, his overall stats this playoffs were sub par for his career playoff stats. But more important that quantity of saves or percentage of saves, was timing of saves. It wasn't luck when Holtby made "The Save" in game 2, it was skill. But it was lucky that he made that incredible save with 2 mins let in a 1 goal game on the road in the SCF, instead of burning that beauty in a blowout in game 4 in round 1. Championship goal tending is not about cumulative stuff. Its about making the big save in the big moment, and Holtby finally did that for us over 4 rounds.

 

[kicksavedave]

Here's my new theory, we do better in years ending in 8.

1988, big win over hated Flyers
1998, SCF cinderella run
2008, make playoffs after burning it to the ground
2018, win Cup

2028 win cup with Sergei Alexandrovich Ovechkin???

I doubt a 10 year old kid would be of much use. Try 2038 or 2048?

DO NOT discount the genetics at play... I would not be surprised to see Ovi's offspring win a Conn Smythe at age 10

 

[Ridley Simon]

"Luck is the residue of hard work" - Vince Lombardi.

I love Vince..... but he basically stole that quote (certainly twisted it) from Louis Pasteur.

Either way, I agree with your post and the premise. As I stated earlier

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’m a big believer that hard workers make (help to manufacture) their own luck, and in turn, that makes winners. I don’t believe for a second that the Caps simply got more lucky this year. They paid the price every game and were rewarded with some breaks that winners get in a championship run.

 

[kicksavedave]

I love Vince..... but he basically stole that quote (certainly twisted it) from Louis Pasteur.

Either way, I agree with your post and the premise. As I stated earlier

It sounds cooler coming from Vince than some old milk science dude

The original quote is "fortune favors the prepared mind", correct?

 

[Portable Mink]

Alive. Gonna go trip on the main boards with endone and read an Ovi thread

 

[Raikkonen]

Not even crosby can do this :p

2 more cups and the conversation will be done

 

[Portable Mink]

We won the f***ing cup ya mugs! Go us! Wooooot

 

[Ridley Simon]

It sounds cooler coming from Vince than some old milk science dude

The original quote is "fortune favors the prepared mind", correct?

exactly. Nail on the head.

YEP-- Its far more fun to quote Lombardi than Pasteur....

 

[crazy8888]

DO NOT discount the genetics at play... I would not be surprised to see Ovi's offspring win a Conn Smythe at age 10

This you guy are gone have to wait longer than 2028. Pretty sure they are having a girl