Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 2

[CapitalsCupReality]

Right below me making the GDTs.

Hah welll played!

 

[hockeykicker]

fwiw and it may not be the reason at all, but tom wilson has been in canada lately for his brothers wedding so it could be a reason he hasant signed yet

 

[txpd]

I think confidence affects the shooters more than the goalies so it’s more that I don’t think goalies perform above their level so much as the team they’re facing plays below it.

Confidence? Regular season Holtby. Playoff Holtby. Yup. Caps win the cup with the goalie that list his job to Grubauer. Ok

 

[Sam Spade]

Sort of O/T

Was thinking today, what team in your mind had the best chance to win the Cup before this year?

I was thinking 2011-2012 with Hunter as coach. Yeah I know he played a weird system with our offensive team but that was the most "team" I saw us play until this year

If the 2009 Caps had beat the Pens I think they would have rolled Carolina and beat the Wings with no Datsyuk for the first four games and Lidstrom recovering from having a testicle removed a week before the Final started.

Most might say 2010 but I don't think the Caps would have beat the Hawks.

 

[Silky mitts]

Confidence? Regular season Holtby. Playoff Holtby. Yup. Caps win the cup with the goalie that list his job to Grubauer. Ok

Holtby was .922 in the playoffs this year, he's been .935-.944 3 times with 12-14 games. .919 regular season, .929 career in the playoffs now. So he's played better in the playoffs and maybe it's semantics but I feel like there's a big enough sample size where it isn't a hot streak. And the Caps Corsi went up 48.2 to 49.4, Fenwick 47.6 to 50.8 regular season to playoffs, and watching the games after the 2nd game they kept the crease cleaner so I don't think they win the Cup if they don't make adjustments defensively. I just feel like 99% of the time if you say some team ran into a hot goalie it's just a team failing to make adjustments and this year the Caps made the adjustments against CBJ and TB after their goalies won them games (21 minutes later for Tampa) and TB and Vegas actually played worse after Holtby won us games.

 

[g00n]

Holtby was .922 in the playoffs this year, he's been .935-.944 3 times with 12-14 games. .919 regular season, .929 career in the playoffs now. So he's played better in the playoffs and maybe it's semantics but I feel like there's a big enough sample size where it isn't a hot streak. And the Caps Corsi went up 48.2 to 49.4, Fenwick 47.6 to 50.8 regular season to playoffs, and watching the games after the 2nd game they kept the crease cleaner so I don't think they win the Cup if they don't make adjustments defensively. I just feel like 99% of the time if you say some team ran into a hot goalie it's just a team failing to make adjustments and this year the Caps made the adjustments against CBJ and TB after their goalies won them games (21 minutes later for Tampa) and TB and Vegas actually played worse after Holtby won us games.

Here's the deep calculus on this, imo.

Holtby didn't have numbers like years past BUT was seen as performing better because he made the big saves. He came up with key breakaway stops and shut things down when it was needed. He was clutch this year, whereas before he was "good enough to win" if the rest of the team had been able to score.

All of which circles back to the point about team defense vs offensive depth. There were many post-seasons where the Caps would not open up the offense and instead played a conservative, defensive style. IIRC that kept shots down, including quality chances, and spawned the "system goalie" criticisms.

This year they went for it with a more transition-oriented game. The result may have been slightly worse save percentages but more chances to come up big (and succeed).

So yes, anyone who watched all 2 doz or so games should be able to honestly stay the team scored at a higher clip (backed by stats) and Holtby saved their asses like never before (not by raw % but by situational performance).

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Here's the deep calculus on this, imo.

Holtby didn't have numbers like years past BUT was seen as performing better because he made the big saves. He came up with key breakaway stops and shut things down when it was needed. He was clutch this year, whereas before he was "good enough to win" if the rest of the team had been able to score.

All of which circles back to the point about team defense vs offensive depth. There were many post-seasons where the Caps would not open up the offense and instead played a conservative, defensive style. IIRC that kept shots down, including quality chances, and spawned the "system goalie" criticisms.

This year they went for it with a more transition-oriented game. The result may have been slightly worse save percentages but more chances to come up big (and succeed).

So yes, anyone who watched all 2 doz or so games should be able to honestly stay the team scored at a higher clip (backed by stats) and Holtby saved their asses like never before (not by raw % but by situational performance).

Agree with the above. Defense was good but offense clicking (and spread throughout the lineup) was a big difference. Considering the mental aspects of the goaltender position, I wonder whether Holts was able to play a bit looser at those key times, with the knowledge/expectation that the Caps would bail him out if he gave up a goal. Not sure how much it affects the guys on the ice, but many fans at least felt that if one goal gets in, those other teams weren't likely to come back.

 

[Coldplay619]

No championship team since the 2004-05 lockout averaged more goals per game in the playoffs than we did.

We averaged 3.58 gpg on this run, the 2010 Blackhawks are second with 3.55 gpg.

 

[third man in]

3 years ago we had offensive black hole Mike Richards as 3C. If that was Eller we could have beat the Pens that year. Improved depth scoring and speed was the difference along with God mode Kuzy.

 

[McVechkin]

3 years ago we had offensive black hole Mike Richards as 3C. If that was Eller we could have beat the Pens that year. Improved depth scoring and speed was the difference along with God mode Kuzy.

The 3c and overall depth scoring was awful that year.. but they brought Lars in to fix that the next year and he had an awful playoffs and they still lost to pens.

I haven’t read a lot of the bickering back and forth about why they finally won.. and I don’t have a definitive answer to that... but I would say it was just their overall aggressiveness in play at all ends of the rink. The team used to play the perimeter in all 3 zones. In the Dzone, they thought they could give teams the outside all game and they were playing good D.. but teams would crash the net and bang garbage in. Caps lose the low scoring games that way... this year, they pressured them and turned the puck over by being in great position/forcing turnovers/blocking shots. In the ozone, it was the same, there was more of a focus to get the high danger areas in a hurry instead of moving it around the perimeter.

 

[hockeykicker]

Although there has been steady dialogue, a new contract isn’t “done or close,” said Wilson’s agent, Mark Guy. Washington owns Wilson’s negotiating rights, so it’s not a matter of if there will be an extension, but when — and how much. And because Wilson didn’t elect for arbitration, it’s unclear how late into the summer negotiations might last. MacLellan’s preference is a long-term deal, and Guy said discussions so far have explored “something north of four years.” Wilson, 24, has already played five full NHL seasons, making that potential term at least two years beyond when he’s eligible to become an unrestricted free agent

Tom Wilson update from isabelle. Basically nothing close and it could be a while

 

[twabby]

1 year or 5+ years for Wilson. 2-3 years would be a disaster since it takes him to UFA without a long-term commitment. 4 years less disastrous but the same point applies.

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

Tom Wilson update from isabelle. Basically nothing close and it could be a while

So again there's no actual indication Wilson or his agent want a short-term deal.

 

[895]

Is it too reductionist to say they won this year because they were lucky and they lost previous years because they were unlucky?

Because that's how I truly feel.

Sports fandom and sports journalism is assigning narratives to an RNG. Hockey moreso than any other sport. This isn't the NBA.

 

[hockeykicker]

So again there's no actual indication Wilson or his agent want a short-term deal.

Or it could be the reason that it's not done is cause gmbm wont come down from 4 years. All it says is that they have explored more then 4 years. Theyve probably explored one year deals, two year deals etc

Its unlikely that money is the hold up (unless gmbm is really shorting him) so its the years again

 

[hockeykicker]

Is it too reductionist to say they won this year because they were lucky and they lost previous years because they were unlucky?

Because that's how I truly feel.

Sports fandom and sports journalism is assigning narratives to an RNG. Hockey moreso than any other sport. This isn't the NBA.

No one wins the cup without luck. No one

 

[895]

Wilson's value to the team is so hard to gauge I don't find it remotely surprising that they're far apart on contract talks.

The fanbase is pretty split on it too. There are people in this very thread who wouldn't trade Tom Wilson for Mark Stone (a trade proposal that would get destroyed by fans of the other 30 teams).

I am personally of the opinion that teams that pay not very productive players because of intangibles, toughness, leadership, heart, soul, whatever you name it regret it more often than not.

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

Or it could be the reason that it's not done is cause gmbm wont come down from 4 years. All it says is that they have explored more then 4 years. Theyve probably explored one year deals, two year deals etc

Its unlikely that money is the hold up (unless gmbm is really shorting him) so its the years again

Why is it unlikely money is the hold up? Can you provide a link to anything that suggests Wilson or his agent want a short-term deal? GMBM didn't say that. If it's been reported somewhere, it would be good to know.

The agent's latest statement sounds like he's laying out for Isabelle, vaguely, what kind of deal they're talking about.

 

[895]

IK says

Arbitration also doesn’t consider playoff performance. Wilson had five goals and 10 assists in 21 postseason games.

Uh...as far as I know this is not true at all.

Does anyone know for sure and have a source?

 

[txpd]

I just feel like 99% of the time if you say some team ran into a hot goalie it's just a team failing to make adjustments and this year the Caps made the adjustments against CBJ and TB after their goalies won them games (21 minutes later for Tampa) and TB and Vegas actually played worse after Holtby won us games.

I know there are people that think a hot goalie is just an excuse. You may be one of those. Maybe Holtby ist worth the money is getting for being elite.

I think just like scoring forwards and defensemen can be dominant in a game, a series or a playoffs that a goalie can also. Because the way the game work a goalie can have the most impact. So, an elite goaltenders playing at his best or over his head can be the difference maker. If you think agree with that....ok

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Does anyone know for sure and have a source?

A quick read shows that playoff performance is not explicitly banned from consideration (reference is made to "season(s)" without explicitly identifying Regular Season(s)); and that consideration of intangibles is indirectly allowable (see D&E below).

The CBA says,

The parties may offer evidence of the following:
(A) the overall performance, including National Hockey League
official statistics (both offensive and defensive), of the Player in
the previous season or seasons;
(B) the number of games played by the Player, his injuries or illnesses
during the preceding seasons;
(C) the length of service of the Player in the League and/or with the
Club;
(D) the overall contribution of the Player to the competitive success or
failure of his Club in the preceding season;
(E) any special qualities of leadership or public appeal not inconsistent
with the fulfillment of his responsibilities as a playing member of
his team;
(F) the overall performance in the previous season or seasons of any
Player(s) who is alleged to be comparable to the party Player
whose salary is in dispute; and
(G) The compensation of any Player(s) who is alleged to be
comparable to the party Player, provided, however, that in
applying this or any of the above subparagraphs, the Salary
Arbitrator shall not consider a Player(s) to be comparable to the
party Player unless a party to the salary arbitration has contended
that the Player(s) is comparable; nor shall the Salary Arbitrator
consider the compensation or performance of a Player(s) unless a
party to the salary arbitration has contended that the Player(s) is
comparable.

 

[Silky mitts]

I know there are people that think a hot goalie is just an excuse. You may be one of those. Maybe Holtby ist worth the money is getting for being elite.

I think just like scoring forwards and defensemen can be dominant in a game, a series or a playoffs that a goalie can also. Because the way the game work a goalie can have the most impact. So, an elite goaltenders playing at his best or over his head can be the difference maker. If you think agree with that....ok

I think goalies are basically interchangeable within the top 6-8 so if you've got a Holtby, Hellebuyck, or Vassy in their prime and you don't have to pay them top 3 money that's ideal, but contracts for guys like Lundqvist, Price, and Luongo are burdensome. But with Halak or Pens goalies, if you're a Caps player or coach and you say you just lost to a hot goalie, you should have been making an adjustment to make him move or get guys in his area.

Is it too reductionist to say they won this year because they were lucky and they lost previous years because they were unlucky?

Because that's how I truly feel.

Sports fandom and sports journalism is assigning narratives to an RNG. Hockey moreso than any other sport. This isn't the NBA.

Most series, especially those not against Pittsburgh, at the end of the series it really looks to me like that team that wanted it more won. (Penguins and Caps both really want to beat each other) Like it really felt like Tampa thought hey we can just win it next year if we lose. But that's even more reductionist.

 

[third man in]

I was shocked at the Lightnings seemingly lack of intensity in the series against us. From the eye test it looked like they weren't going as hard as they could.

 

[Coach Travis]

Is it too reductionist to say they won this year because they were lucky and they lost previous years because they were unlucky?

Because that's how I truly feel.

Hey guys, thought I would check in. You may remember me as that guy who had a Pens logo wearing a Caps jersey (HF Pens made me change it).

Anyway, yes, I do think there is “luck” at play in winning a Cup. The better you are the more coin flips you get but there’s still a lot of luck.

I’ll say this though about this year’s Caps team: Even though some of the high-end talent was missing this year there was a bit more scoring depth through the lineup. In 2016, 2017 the Caps had a very traditional 4th line. I think you hedge your bets when you put as many scorers in the lineup as possible. There are Pens fans who said we couldn’t put in Daniel Sprong, for instance, on the 4th line because he’s not a “4th line player”. f*** that, I’ll take the top 3 scorers from our AHL affiliate over “Grinders” any day!

 

[g00n]

Is it too reductionist to say they won this year because they were lucky and they lost previous years because they were unlucky?

Because that's how I truly feel.

Sports fandom and sports journalism is assigning narratives to an RNG. Hockey moreso than any other sport. This isn't the NBA.

Yes, that's ridiculous. Anyone who's watched them play over the years could see a difference in their play and sense a difference in the way they approached the process.

Every Championship team has some luck. But the Caps had some clear trends (like performance when trailing, on the road, etc).